Game Analysis - Game 8 - UConn vs Louisville (for Saturday December 7th) | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 8 - UConn vs Louisville (for Saturday December 7th)

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

This game is not scheduled until Saturday, December 7th however, since I will not be around from the 2nd to the 9th...I am putting out this analysis a little early.

Louisville will start have two freshmen, one junior, one senior, and one graduate student in its starting line-up. Their starting five are 6'3", 6'2", 6'0", 5'10" and 5'9". Louisville only lost to #5 ranked UCLA by 7 points and by 10 to number 21 ranked Kentucky. They did, however, beat South Florida by 4. Louisville is ranked 29th with an RPI of .5757 and is ranked 36 in SOS. UConn is ranked 3rd with an RPI of 6278 and is ranked 3 in SOS. Louisville averages 75.9 points per game while they hold their opponents to 64.7. They shot the three-ball at 6.7 per game. They average 38.6 rebounds per game. They get 9.1 steals per game and force 20 turnovers per game. They score 22.4 points off of turnovers

UConn scores 78.3 points per game while holding their opponents to 48.7 points per game. UConn shoots the three-ball at 7.5 per game. UConn rebounds the basketball at 37.5 per game. UConn scores 20.5 points off turnovers on 11.5 steals per game. They shoot the three-ball at 7.5 per game.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady, 6'3", forward vs. Olivia Cochran, 6'3", forward - Oliva averages 8.6 points, 5.9 rebounds,1.1 assists, and 1.3 steals. Olivia also turns the ball over 2.57 times per game. Ice averages 6.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and .5 steals per game. Ice turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Ice plays 22.3 minutes per game while Olivia plays 24.7 minutes per game. Louisville will use: 6'4" Isla Juffermans (11.5 minutes - 4.3 points/2.3 rebounds); 6'3" Elif Istanbullugglu, (16.9 minutes - 3.9 points, 3.0 rebounds). UConn will play 6'5" Jana El-Alfy (15.8 minutes 8.2 points/6.3 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Sarah Strong, 6'2", forward vs. Nyla Harris, 6'2", forward - Nyla averages 9.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals while Sarah averages 14.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.8 steals, 1.8 blocked shots and 1.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0 guard vs. MacKenly Randolf, 6'0" Forward - MacKenly averages 4.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists per game. Paige is UConn's best player. She averages 22 points, 2.2 three-pointers, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade. 5'10 guard vs. Tejianne Roberts, 5'10" guard - Tejianne is Louisville's stat-stuffer as she averages 11.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.85 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.0 points 2.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game Given Ashlynn's defense and the team defense she has behind her...
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" guard vs. Ja'leah Williams 5'9" guard - Ja'leah averages 6.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5'1 assists, 1.3 steals while Kaitlyn averages 6.0 points, 1.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.2 steals. These players statistically look pretty close, however, Ja'leah appears to be more consistent and beats Kaitlyn albeit very closely in all five categories. ADVANTAGE - LOUISVILLE

BENCH:

UConn will bring 29.6 points and 16.5 rebounds off the bench while Louisville will bring 45 points with two good scoring guards coming off the bench Jayden Curry 12.3 points and Imari Berry 9.9 points. They will also bring 16.8 rebounds off the bench. All of the advantage that Louisville has with regards to scoring could be negated if Azzi Fudd can score 20 points.... On paper Louisville's should have the advantage against UConn's bench but with all the UConn players on the bench that could have a good game on Saturday... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:

Coach Jeff Walz and Associate Head Coach Stephanie Norman are a formidable pair but so is Geno and Chris. I think the coaching is close but you got to go with the two hall of fame coaches. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game is played on a neutral court, The Barclays in Brooklyn, NY...no advantage there...except that there will probably be a lot of UConn fans in the stands. I believe that UConn will thrive in this match-up and Paige will not let UConn lose this one.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 74
LOUISVILLE - 61
MOV - 13
 
Thank you again, sensei @cferraro04!

Here's a few observations based on your analysis:
  • If Azzi starts in place of Ash, or at least gets more minutes, it might make more sense to figure the advantages with respect to her presence in the game. A matchup between Azzi and Roberts would not even be close to even, I suspect. Whether she starts or not, I think Ash is now Azzi's sub in reality from now on.
  • Similarly, I suspect Kaitlyn will be playing opposite Curry or Arenas more than Williams, and this matchup (however you figure it) looks to be more or less even. And in this game, I'd like to see KK get a lot of minutes against Louisville's little guards. The two of them will need to expend a lot of energy on this opponent.
  • But for me, the real issue is the Louisville veterans, Cochran and Harris. They are both mature, talented players capable of dominating at their respective positions. If Randolph has to guard Paige, things will go badly for Louisville. But Walz can't risk putting Harris on Paige if it means unleashing Sarah. This is the key dilemma he faces in this game, I suspect. If Sarah plays well, Harris will have to guard her and then Paige will dominate.
  • Can Ice or Jana win the battle against Cochran? This is the question, I think, and this will be an important growing moment for both of them. Olivia's backups are not nearly as good, or battle tested as she is. Juffermans and Istanbulloglu are merely foul insurance for Olivia, but they cannot bring much scoring or rebounding punch. You may have noticed that I have a lot of respect for Olivia. She's had a solid career up to now and gotten better every year. I really enjoy watching her play. This is the other matchup to watch -- Olivia vs Ice and Jana.
One more wild card on each side: this is a game in which Morgan could do well. She has good size and can bring the sort of defensive pressure that could really matter against Harris or Randolph. By the same token, Imari Berry could come up big -- she's speedy and a talented scorer. But she can only get on the court by replacing another scorer -- Curry, Arenas or Roberts. I know, Arenas's stats don't look impressive, but she did well against Colorado.
 
Bone Dog said:
Thank you again, sensei @cferraro04!

Here's a few observations based on your analysis:
  • If Azzi starts in place of Ash, or at least gets more minutes, it might make more sense to figure the advantages with respect to her presence in the game. A matchup between Azzi and Roberts would not even be close to even, I suspect. Whether she starts or not, I think Ash is now Azzi's sub in reality from now on.
  • Similarly, I suspect Kaitlyn will be playing opposite Curry or Arenas more than Williams, and this matchup (however you figure it) looks to be more or less even. And in this game, I'd like to see KK get a lot of minutes against Louisville's little guards. The two of them will need to expend a lot of energy on this opponent.
  • But for me, the real issue is the Louisville veterans, Cochran and Harris. They are both mature, talented players capable of dominating at their respective positions. If Randolph has to guard Paige, things will go badly for Louisville. But Walz can't risk putting Harris on Paige if it means unleashing Sarah. This is the key dilemma he faces in this game, I suspect. If Sarah plays well, Harris will have to guard her and then Paige will dominate.
  • Can Ice or Jana win the battle against Cochran? This is the question, I think, and this will be an important growing moment for both of them. Olivia's backups are not nearly as good, or battle tested as she is. Juffermans and Istanbulloglu are merely foul insurance for Olivia, but they cannot bring much scoring or rebounding punch. You may have noticed that I have a lot of respect for Olivia. She's had a solid career up to now and gotten better every year. I really enjoy watching her play. This is the other matchup to watch -- Olivia vs Ice and Jana.
One more wild card on each side: this is a game in which Morgan could do well. She has good size and can bring the sort of defensive pressure that could really matter against Harris or Randolph. By the same token, Imari Berry could come up big -- she's speedy and a talented scorer. But she can only get on the court by replacing another scorer -- Curry, Arenas or Roberts. I know, Arenas's stats don't look impressive, but she did well against Colorado.
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I agree that KK should definitely play a lot of minutes in this game. She is likely to be sorely needed in the upcoming game at ND.
 
Bone Dog your comments are so good I think they should be an appendix to the original post. You put your finger on the challenges that Walz and Louisville face with UConn. It is easy to forget that this time last year...UConn was the "walking dead". We were all praying, "Please God...don't let anyone else get hurt". We all tensed up every time a UConn player hit the deck. Fast forward a year...we have 4 new talented freshmen. Azzi, El-Alfy, and Ice are back. Aubrey, Patterson, and Caroline are all trying to work their way back into playing shape. Last year's starting five did amazing getting us as far as we went. Yeah, Edwards, and Nika moved on to the next level. We had a couple of transfers. And the 2024-25 season holds the most promise we have had in recent years...but, yet again...the UNKNOWN rears its head:

1. Can our super-freshman Sarah Strong maintain her stellar play all season long?
2. Will we remain by and large healthy?
3. Can Paige make good on her promise to be less selfish?
4. Can our super-duper sophomores KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade, Qadence Samuels, and Ice Brady find a way to adapt to their changing roles on this year's version of the Huskies?
5. How will the chemistry of this team be affected as we work Ayanna Patterson, Aubrey Griffin, Caroline Ducharme, and Azzi Fudd back into the line-up?
6. What about Qadence Samuels our talented almost forgotten sophomore who has somehow found her way to the end of the rotation?
7. Finally, what about our other very talented freshmen...how can they find a way to contribute to a team loaded with talent?

Geno and his squad would have to be magicians to balance all of this. Now with all this going on in the background...imagine the difficulty to analyze a game or to prognosticate the results of a game: You don't know who is going to start or who is going to play,? Who is coming back? How many minutes will they get?

And, this is what makes this season so exciting. So far I am enjoying this season about as much as I ever enjoyed a season. I love reading your comments following my humble attempt to analyze a game. Your comments truly add dimension to the original post. I have thoroughly enjoyed your insights as they give me additional things to look for during the games. If we get through our out-of-conference schedule relatively unscathed...I think we UConn fans will be in for a very special season.
 
This game will not be close. Last year Uconn won by 24 points. Uconn is 19-6 in head to head competition and we will prevail again. Uconn's defense is peaking and our offense is led by 3 no.1 picks and our Newbies will get a chance to grow experience. After we take care of Holy Cross for win no.7 we will get win No8 , GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO SOPHOMORES!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!
 
I have only watched one Louisville game so far and it was against South Florida. They had no business winning that game but a last few seconds of hectic play pulled it out. Everyone should get into this game because I think Geno respects Jeff and would not purposely run up the score so the bench will hold ti to around 20 points.
 
This should be a good game. I have to say, the number of good, meaningful games taking place over the next two weeks is really something! Check out all these upcoming games! This is a prime time to be a women’s basketball fan!:)
 
Charliebball said:
UConn should win this match-up handily, but I view it as the prototypical trap game........Louisville is just good enough to cause UConn real problems if the Huskies have their minds on the upcoming Notre Dame battle.....
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Gonna have to MAKE our layups
Gonna have to MAKE our free throws
We should prevail, but can’t leave points out there.
 
I like where we are now. We will get better too. We have Paige Azzi and Sarah. The BIG 3. The last time we had that we had Stewie Morgan and MoJeff. We are in a good place right now and its early in the season. There will still be hiccups as we grow together as a team. This team will blossom into a championship team over time. We have all the pieces to the puzzle. Now we just have to wait. Right now we are gonna be very tuff to beat. We can beat ourselves but IMO there is no other team that has our talent.
 
Cuango said:
I agree that KK should definitely play a lot of minutes in this game. She is likely to be sorely needed in the upcoming game at ND.
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KK has not improved her outside shooting. So I have seen teams leave her open and not guard her closely.
 
rt bb fan said:
KK has not improved her outside shooting. So I have seen teams leave her open and not guard her closely.
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KK is elite on defense and has really improved her scoring on drives to the basket (no bunnies). We have many better outside shooters so even if open she needs to create and defer.
 
I’m watching #11 Oklahoma at #22 Louisville on ESPN2 now. Louisville plays a pretty physical defense. It’s a 5 point Louisville lead with 6 minutes in the game in a low scoring affair. Per the announcers, Louisville likes to run the shot clock down and take a shot with a few seconds left. Lots of passing by the Cardinals so the UConn guards could pick some of them off if they’re sharp.

(I turned the game on with 6 minutes remaining)
 
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Complete collapse by Louisville in fourth quarter as they were outscored by 29-12 after leading by as much as 17 in first half and by 11 going into fourth quarter. For as good as Cochran was in first half, she disappeared in the second and eventually fouled out. Curry played well after being injured earlier in the season. Louisville rebounded well (especially in first half) but had 19 turnovers. Will be interesting to see how well they come back on Saturday from such a tough loss.
 
Scooter said:
Complete collapse by Louisville in fourth quarter as they were outscored by 29-12 after leading by as much as 17 in first half and by 11 going into fourth quarter. For as good as Cochran was in first half, she disappeared in the second and eventually fouled out. Curry played well after being injured earlier in the season. Louisville rebounded well (especially in first half) but had 19 turnovers. Will be interesting to see how well they come back on Saturday from such a tough loss.
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Louisville's FG % was 34.7 25/72; three pointers 23.1%, and they had 37
rebounds to OKLA's 43. The Cardinals committed 29 ?? personal fouls! They
led 60 to 49 going into the 4th quarter! A collapse, indeed, At HOME! Oklahoma
was ranked # 11 and Louisville # 22.
 
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