Game Analysis - Game 30 - UConn vs Creighton

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Here we are honing in on ending what I believe has been a great season so far. Instead of losing players (Morgan Cheli notwithstanding), we have been slowly getting them back. We now have almost a full complement of players. UConn has finally settled on an identity, a knowledge of who they are. Everybody except Aubrey and now Caroline...knows what their role on this team is. Geno pretty much knows what he has which puts him in a position where he can draw upon his true talent and optimally coach this team towards a championship run. Having already faced Creighton once this year on their home court the Huskies will be playing out the second act in Hartford. The first game was fairly close, and the Huskies came away with an 11-point victory 72-61. Sarah Strong was the hot hand in that one scoring 26 points, and Paige Bueckers was the only other double-figure scorer with 22 in the game. Kaitlin Chen was close with 9. Creighton had four players in double figures; Morgan Maly - 14, Molly Mogensen - 14, Brooke Littrell - 12, and Lauren Jensen with 11 points. Creighton is 23 and 4 on the season while UConn is 26 and 3. Creighton has fairly balanced scoring and consistently has 4 players who can score double figures.

RPI / SoS:

Creighton's RPI - 12
Creighton's SoS - 29

UConn's RPI - 4
UConn's SoS - 9

PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - R-Freshman - Center vs Mallory Blake, 6'0" - Graduate - Forward - Mallory averages 5.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.4 steals, .74 blocks. Jana is averaging 5.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. In game one Mallory played 17 minutes and scored 4 points. Jana played 8 minutes and scored 1 point. Jana will play more minutes and she will score better than one point in this one additionally, Mallory gives up 5 inches to Jana. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Morgan Maly, 6'1" - Senior - Guard/Forward - Morgan averages 17.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists. Morgan is a very good three-point shooter averaging 2.33 three-pointers per game. Sarah is averaging 15.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 Blocks per game. Sarah hits 1.44 three-pointers per game. This looks like a tremendous match-up but Sarah did dominate her assignment with a monster game (26 points. 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks, and 5 steals) the last time Creighton and UConn met. Morgan Maly also had a very good game (14 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 block). Morgan played 35 minutes while Sarah played 37 minutes. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - R-Senior - Guard vs Lauren Jensen, 5'10" - Senior - Guard - Lauren is Creighton's most productive player averaging 18.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.26 steals, and .26 blocks per game. Lauren averages 2.44 three-pointers per game. In the first match-up, Lauren scored 11 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists. Lauren played all 40 minutes in that game. Paige averages 18.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.1 steals, .6 blocks per game. Paige averages 1.85 three-pointers per game. In game one of the series, Paige played 38 minutes and scored 22 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and hit 3 three-pointers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Molly Mogensen, 5'7" - Graduate - Guard - Molly averages 9.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, .93 steals, and she averages 1 three-pointer per game. Azzi averages 13 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 2.39 three-pointers per game. In the first match-up, Molly got the match-up hitting 14 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 block while also hitting 2 shots from three-point. Azzi comparatively, had an atypical uneventful game scoring 4 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, and 2 steals. Azzi was an 0fer from three. Both Molly and Azzi played 34 minutes in that game. I do expect that Azzi will be looking to prove that she is a better player than she showed in the last game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Kaitlin Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Kiani Lockett, 5'8" - Junior - Guard - Kiani averages 6'1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and .92 steals per game. Kiani did not play and Jayme Horan, 5'10" - Graduate - Guard played 30 minutes. Jayme scored 3 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal. She also hit 1 three in the game. Assuming Kiani gets the start over Jayme we can expect Creighton will get more productivity from the 1 spot. Kaitlyn averages 7.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. If Kiani gets the start it will be a closer match-up than if Jayme gets the start. However, with this game being at home and with the way Kaitlyn is currently playing... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn bench is currently number one in the Big East. With Aubrey rounding into form, Caroline possibly getting some minutes, and Ice about to come back... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing in front of the home crowd. They are building off the blockbuster victory over South Carolina in Columbia, They are also looking like they are just about in post-season rhythm. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

As good as CREIGHTON's coaching staff is...UConn has technically 4 head coaches on their bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 83
CREIGHTON - 65
MOV - 18

 

[Kat]

I think we're going to win.

 

[Centerstream]

If I am remembering correctly, Molly Mogenson was the X factor in the previous game. What I mean is that I think we held Maly and Jensen below their scoring averages for most of the game. Creighton outscored us by 7 in the 4th quarter to make the score seem closer than the game really was.
Most of the starters played around 30 min with Jensen playing the full 40 minutes. We need to play a full game in preparation for the post season.

 

[Topsail]

Creighton definitely pushed us. I remember Paige and Sarah playing almost all of the game

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei! I agree with your prognostication and MoV. We brought an 18 point lead into the 4th quarter last time and a few scores in the closing minutes closed it to 11. This was in a game in which we only made 4 3s and Creighton made 8. It was also the first (only?) conference game in which Paige Sarah and Azzi played 30+ minutes. I have a feeling we’ll see that again in the rematch.

What I think we probably won’t see is another 4-20 perimeter shooting night. Creighton plays tough defense and we’ll definitely see that again. But I think our offense has been much more efficient recently. Azzi and Ash are also not likely to shoot so poorly again.

We may not see such a lopsided turnover differential — we won that battle 18-6 and the steals were 13-1. This is something to watch. We played a dominating game except for the last 6 minutes. Can we put a 40 minute game together this time? I’m with @Centerstream on this question. Here’s an excellent opportunity to prove we can do it.

One difference to look forward to is the growing confidence in Aubrey’s game. She is built to play against Creighton with her energy and athleticism. They do not matchup well against her. We don’t have Morgan, but it isn’t likely she’d have seen many minutes in the tournament. The return of Aubrey probably would have entailed this even without the ankle injury. The loss of Ice is much more significant in my view and I really hope she is able to return for the tournament.