Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Tennessee | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Tennessee

Bone Dog said:
I think it makes sense to conclude that Talaysia has a slight advantage. This isn’t the same as saying that she’s a better player than Azzi. I don’t think that’s what Sensei is saying here. I think the point is that if Tennessee makes this a competitive game, Talaysia will be key to that.
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Nah, it doesn't make sense for me. Especially given Sensei's explanation in post #41 where he brought in a view on how Cooper's stats improve the overall scoring opportunities for the Lady Vols. As soon as that card was played, then there should have been an acknowledgement of (1) shooting percentages and (2) turnovers.

Cooper's FG% (41.8) results in 8.35 misses per game. Contrasted against Azzi's 6.77 misses per game, that is a difference of 1.5 more misses for the Lady Vol offense. Similarly, Azzi's 1.4 TOs per game is half of Cooper's 2.8. Together, that is an opportunity loss of almost 3 shots per game.

At best (or worst), I would probably characterize it (statistically) as "Advantage Even".

FWIW, for somewhat similar reasons, I would also call the statistical match-up between Zee Spearman and Serah Williams as "Advantage Even" as well. Spearman has a FG% of 39.4 - which is horrific for a power forward. It results in 6.05 misses per game, whereas Serah is only averaging 2.28 misses per game due to her superb 57.9 FG%.

Furthermore, part of Zee's poor FG percentage is the fact that she is launching 3.5 shots behind the arc per game, but making only one. In essence, her 25.7 3P% actually hurts her team since everyone else collectively is at 32.6%. Hence, when comparing these two players, I see Spearman making 1.1 three pointers per game as a negative attribute, not a positive one.

That said, I love Sensei's analysis for these games as it provides food for thought at both the player and team level. Good stuff!
 
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BobbyJ said:
My question is why are they being compared to each other individually with past stats they compiled against different opponents in completely different type games (some blowouts, some close etc) under the assumption that they'll be guarding each other?
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Your wariness about the ‘matchup’ form of analysis is reasonable. I just don’t think this objection gets to the heart of Sensei’s intent here. The point is to show the role each one plays on their own team. If Tennessee makes a game of this, it will be because Talaysia has played well within Kim’s team concept. My bet is we won’t allow Tennessee to play according to that concept, but will enforce our will upon them. And Azzi will surely have a lot to do with that. Of course, you’re right that all the switching we do will mean that Ash and Sarah will have as much to do with knocking Talaysia off her game as anyone.

I think of this game by comparison to the tOSU game. Similar pressing style without the ‘hockey line switching’ baloney. Tennessee is a bit taller than tOSU, but not nearly as offensively talented. The one team needs easy transition buckets to power their offense, the other is talented enough to score in the halfcourt offense against a tough defensive team.

If we keep our turnovers low, our switching defense should be able to smother their halfcourt offense. The other advantage our team concept has is that we can run our transition offense after rebounds or even made shots, not just on forced turnovers. Their defense is designed to press after makes, and doesn’t do so well defending against an opponent’s transition offense. This is one reason they’ve struggled in losses this season, especially in the Louisville game. What Louisville did to them in the second half, and they did it without forcing a ton of turnovers.

Two differences from the Louisville game I expect: first we’ll turn them over more — Louisville forced only 17 turnovers, and gave up 20 themselves. Second, we probably won’t outrebound them by such a huge margin (59-37). I have a feeling Tennessee won’t have as many shot attempts, which will keep the rebounding numbers down.
 
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I think this game confirms Sensei's read of the situation. Azzi dominated and Talaysia floundered. The matchup analysis said to me that the only way Tennessee steals an upset is if Talaysia dominates and Azzi flounders.
 
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Bone Dog said:
I think this game confirms Sensei's read of the situation. Azzi dominated and Talaysia floundered. The matchup analysis said to me that the only way Tennessee steals an upset is if Talaysia dominates and Azzi flounders.
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Yeah, it's too bad that Tennessee didn't utilize that advantage he gave them with Cooper over Fudd. 😉
 
Okay, guys...you got me. I definitely got the Fudd/Cooper matchup wrong.
Fudd: 39 minutes; 27 points, 5/8 (3s); 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 2 TOs
Coop: 28 minutes; 8 points; 2/3 (3s); 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals; 0 blocks, 4 TOs

Yep! I got my proverbial butt handed to me on that one, that's for sure.

Now, the question is, how do I feel about it? Well, for starters, I'm thrilled! I am thrilled that Azzi got out of the small funk she was in about making threes. She has been very inconsistent with three-pointers since mid-January (1/15 Villanova - 28.6%; 1/19 ND - 0%; 1/22 GTown - 25%; 1/24 Seton Hall - 75%; 1/28 Xavier - 14%; Today (thank God) Tennessee - 62.5%). I am absolutely thrilled to see her break out of that small 3-pointer slump, and, to be honest, to pigeonhole Azzi as a mere three-point shooter is to do her an injustice. She had one of her best all-around games today. She took Cooper to the woodshed...7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and a block...while leading UConn in scoring. You really can't ask any more of a kid in a basketball game.

Yep, I got this matchup wrong, and I am happy to come here and admit it. My 14-point MOV was wrong, too, and I can't say that I am saddened by that either. That second half was a thing of beauty. After UConn jumped out to a 16-point early lead, only to watch it evaporate to a tie game at halftime, left me thinking, "here we go again." Here is another team that is playing over its head, giving UConn its best game, and we are going to be lucky to win this one. Well, luck had nothing to do with it! UConn showed why it is the best team in the nation in the second half, taking the number 15 team in the nation, which was playing its best basketball, and beating them 54 to 24.
 
cferraro04 said:
Okay, guys...you got me. I definitely got the Fudd/Cooper matchup wrong.
Fudd: 39 minutes; 27 points, 5/8 (3s); 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 2 TOs
Coop: 28 minutes; 8 points; 2/3 (3s); 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals; 0 blocks, 4 TOs

Yep! I got my proverbial butt handed to me on that one, that's for sure.

Now, the question is, how do I feel about it? Well, for starters, I'm thrilled! I am thrilled that Azzi got out of the small funk she was in about making threes. She has been very inconsistent with three-pointers since mid-January (1/15 Villanova - 28.6%; 1/19 ND - 0%; 1/22 GTown - 25%; 1/24 Seton Hall - 75%; 1/28 Xavier - 14%; Today (thank God) Tennessee - 62.5%). I am absolutely thrilled to see her break out of that small 3-pointer slump, and, to be honest, to pigeonhole Azzi as a mere three-point shooter is to do her an injustice. She had one of her best all-around games today. She took Cooper to the woodshed...7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and a block...while leading UConn in scoring. You really can't ask any more of a kid in a basketball game.

Yep, I got this matchup wrong, and I am happy to come here and admit it. My 14-point MOV was wrong, too, and I can't say that I am saddened by that either. That second half was a thing of beauty. After UConn jumped out to a 16-point early lead, only to watch it evaporate to a tie game at halftime, left me thinking, "here we go again." Here is another team that is playing over its head, giving UConn its best game, and we are going to be lucky to win this one. Well, luck had nothing to do with it! UConn showed why it is the best team in the nation in the second half, taking the number 15 team in the nation, which was playing its best basketball, and beating them 54 to 24.
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As I said in my earlier post, the game turned on the efficient numbers represented by the shooting percentages for each team year-to-date. Uconn exceeded theirs, TN matched theirs. That and team defensive efficiency which is not part of you analysis.

Your posts are great for what they are - starters v starters, aggregate bench v aggregate bench, and coach v coach. In any game a player can shine or wilt and with Uconn's stellar defense, the opponent is much more likely to fall into the 'wilt' category.

(But I am never betting against Azzi even if she is in a slump! 😎 )
 
cferraro04 said:
Okay, guys...you got me. I definitely got the Fudd/Cooper matchup wrong.
Fudd: 39 minutes; 27 points, 5/8 (3s); 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 2 TOs
Coop: 28 minutes; 8 points; 2/3 (3s); 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals; 0 blocks, 4 TOs

Yep! I got my proverbial butt handed to me on that one, that's for sure.

Now, the question is, how do I feel about it? Well, for starters, I'm thrilled! I am thrilled that Azzi got out of the small funk she was in about making threes. She has been very inconsistent with three-pointers since mid-January (1/15 Villanova - 28.6%; 1/19 ND - 0%; 1/22 GTown - 25%; 1/24 Seton Hall - 75%; 1/28 Xavier - 14%; Today (thank God) Tennessee - 62.5%). I am absolutely thrilled to see her break out of that small 3-pointer slump, and, to be honest, to pigeonhole Azzi as a mere three-point shooter is to do her an injustice. She had one of her best all-around games today. She took Cooper to the woodshed...7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and a block...while leading UConn in scoring. You really can't ask any more of a kid in a basketball game.

Yep, I got this matchup wrong, and I am happy to come here and admit it. My 14-point MOV was wrong, too, and I can't say that I am saddened by that either. That second half was a thing of beauty. After UConn jumped out to a 16-point early lead, only to watch it evaporate to a tie game at halftime, left me thinking, "here we go again." Here is another team that is playing over its head, giving UConn its best game, and we are going to be lucky to win this one. Well, luck had nothing to do with it! UConn showed why it is the best team in the nation in the second half, taking the number 15 team in the nation, which was playing its best basketball, and beating them 54 to 24.
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If you meant the analysis as a prediction, then you got it wrong. But I’ve never understood your posts that way. My earlier posts in this thread make clear my read of what you post, and it’s very different from what your critics think. You have no mea culpas to make here. Keep up the good work.
 
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cferraro04 said:
Okay, guys...you got me. I definitely got the Fudd/Cooper matchup wrong.
Fudd: 39 minutes; 27 points, 5/8 (3s); 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 2 TOs
Coop: 28 minutes; 8 points; 2/3 (3s); 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals; 0 blocks, 4 TOs

Yep! I got my proverbial butt handed to me on that one, that's for sure.

Now, the question is, how do I feel about it? Well, for starters, I'm thrilled! I am thrilled that Azzi got out of the small funk she was in about making threes. She has been very inconsistent with three-pointers since mid-January (1/15 Villanova - 28.6%; 1/19 ND - 0%; 1/22 GTown - 25%; 1/24 Seton Hall - 75%; 1/28 Xavier - 14%; Today (thank God) Tennessee - 62.5%). I am absolutely thrilled to see her break out of that small 3-pointer slump, and, to be honest, to pigeonhole Azzi as a mere three-point shooter is to do her an injustice. She had one of her best all-around games today. She took Cooper to the woodshed...7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and a block...while leading UConn in scoring. You really can't ask any more of a kid in a basketball game.

Yep, I got this matchup wrong, and I am happy to come here and admit it. My 14-point MOV was wrong, too, and I can't say that I am saddened by that either. That second half was a thing of beauty. After UConn jumped out to a 16-point early lead, only to watch it evaporate to a tie game at halftime, left me thinking, "here we go again." Here is another team that is playing over its head, giving UConn its best game, and we are going to be lucky to win this one. Well, luck had nothing to do with it! UConn showed why it is the best team in the nation in the second half, taking the number 15 team in the nation, which was playing its best basketball, and beating them 54 to 24.
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No need to apologize getting these matchups wrong. You put your opinion on the boneyard and I think people can take what they want out of your analysis. No one bats 1000 when it comes to predictions and hindsight can be 20/20. Thanks for putting in all the hard work.
 
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