Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Tennessee | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Tennessee

Thanks for the analysis. I don’t agree particularly with the KK matchup though.

TN has not seen a defense like UConn’s. Not by a long shot. I see a lot of turnovers. UConn should be up by 30 at some point. Geno will probably pull the starters in the 4th. He’s too nice!!! LOL
 
Here are Tennessee’s stats

IMG_4765.jpeg
 
This is easily a trap game for the Huskies. Especially with Tennessee coming off a loss.
 
WBBZen said:
Spearman got very early fouls in the State game and if Sarah can drive to the basket and put some early fouls on her that would be really helpful.
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This would be nice but ..............

Every referee crew is different, and the same crews aren't necessarily consistent game to game, or even first half to second half. Obviously, teams need to quickly adjust to whether the officials are letting them play or are calling even the slightest touch fouls.

Likewise, how a player does game to game varies. So just because Spearman was foul prone against State doesn't mean she'll be that way against us.

But you're right - I hope Sarah and most everyone else drives hard to the basket. Just sound basketball that this Husky team excels at.
 
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Important notes from pregame press

Serah is back, Blanca and Carol still out.

Blanca will definitely be missed matching up against Tennessee. But we may also play more small ball, and Tennessee guards are their weak point. If we can get hot from 3 it’s over. I’d like to see more of Sarah working the mid range and K9 driving and kicking to the perimeter like we saw against Xavier.
 
WBBZen said:
Important notes from pregame press

Serah is back, Blanca and Carol still out.

Blanca will definitely be missed matching up against Tennessee. But we may also play more small ball, and Tennessee guards are their weak point. If we can get hot from 3 it’s over. I’d like to see more of Sarah working the mid range and K9 driving and kicking to the perimeter like we saw against Xavier.
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I'm very disappointed to hear it. This game is the perfect platform for Blanca's talents. A pressing team tries to create chaos, and chaos is Blanca's natural element.

Another player who might thrive in such a game is Morgan. Sadly, it looks like we won't see her on the court until next season.
 
fomalhaut said:
Am I living in some alternate universe where Talaysia Cooper is better than Azzi Fudd?
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Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Talaysia Cooper, 6'0" - Redshirt Junior - Talaysia is averaging 14.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.4 steals per game, and .4 blocks per game. Azzi Fudd averages 16.7 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .4 blocks per game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Category Player Stat
Points Cooper 14.4
Fudd 16.7
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Three-pointers Cooper 1.8
Fudd 2,8
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Rebounds Cooper 5.7
Fudd 2.5
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Assists Cooper 4.1
Fudd 2.9
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Steals Cooper 3.4
Fudd 2.3
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Blocks Cooper .4
Fudd .4
ADVANTAGE - Even

When you look at the stats on paper...And Fudd only has a 2.3 point advantage over Cooper in the scoring category. Then you look at Cooper's advantages: Cooper gets 3.2 more rebounds than Fudd, giving her team more chances to score. Cooper gets 1.2 more assists than Fudd, meaning she participates in Tennessee scoring at least one more basket than Fudd...this essentially erases Fudd's 2-point scoring advantage and even things out with regards to scoring and steals. Cooper gets one more steal per game than Fudd, giving her team another possession. I do not think it is unfeasible to give Cooper a SLIGHT advantage here.
 
cferraro04 said:
Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Talaysia Cooper, 6'0" - Redshirt Junior - Talaysia is averaging 14.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.4 steals per game, and .4 blocks per game. Azzi Fudd averages 16.7 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .4 blocks per game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Category Player Stat
Points Cooper 14.4
Fudd 16.7
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Three-pointers Cooper 1.8
Fudd 2,8
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Rebounds Cooper 5.7
Fudd 2.5
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Assists Cooper 4.1
Fudd 2.9
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Steals Cooper 3.4
Fudd 2.3
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Blocks Cooper .4
Fudd .4
ADVANTAGE - Even

When you look at the stats on paper...And Fudd only has a 2.3 point advantage over Cooper in the scoring category. Then you look at Cooper's advantages: Cooper gets 3.2 more rebounds than Fudd, giving her team more chances to score. Cooper gets 1.2 more assists than Fudd, meaning she participates in Tennessee scoring at least one more basket than Fudd...this essentially erases Fudd's 2-point scoring advantage and even things out with regards to scoring and steals. Cooper gets one more steal per game than Fudd, giving her team another possession. I do not think it is unfeasible to give Cooper a SLIGHT advantage here.
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So you’re saying that in a close game, you’d rather have Cooper than Fudd and stats and paper might decide the game? I think I’ll take the proven better player which is Fudd and if you give any coach in the country their choice, I believe they would too. That’s why a bunch of stats accumulated against different opponents in different situations really have no bearing on this particular game.
 
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Cooper’s overall FG% is 41.8% and 31.9% from three. Azzi’s overall FG% is 47.7% and 43.1% from three. She is a more efficient player and her performances are especially impressive because she’s often guarding the opponent’s best player
 
HuskyNan said:
Cooper’s overall FG% is 41.8% and 31.9% from three. Azzi’s overall FG% is 47.7% and 43.1% from three. She is a more efficient player and her performances are especially impressive because she’s often guarding the opponent’s best player
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Yeah but Cooper averages 3 more rebounds per game because she had a big game of 11 against Coppin St. in a 53 pt blowout.
 
cferraro04 said:
Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Talaysia Cooper, 6'0" - Redshirt Junior - Talaysia is averaging 14.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.4 steals per game, and .4 blocks per game. Azzi Fudd averages 16.7 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .4 blocks per game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Category Player Stat
Points Cooper 14.4
Fudd 16.7
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Three-pointers Cooper 1.8
Fudd 2,8
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Rebounds Cooper 5.7
Fudd 2.5
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Assists Cooper 4.1
Fudd 2.9
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Steals Cooper 3.4
Fudd 2.3
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Blocks Cooper .4
Fudd .4
ADVANTAGE - Even

When you look at the stats on paper...And Fudd only has a 2.3 point advantage over Cooper in the scoring category. Then you look at Cooper's advantages: Cooper gets 3.2 more rebounds than Fudd, giving her team more chances to score. Cooper gets 1.2 more assists than Fudd, meaning she participates in Tennessee scoring at least one more basket than Fudd...this essentially erases Fudd's 2-point scoring advantage and even things out with regards to scoring and steals. Cooper gets one more steal per game than Fudd, giving her team another possession. I do not think it is unfeasible to give Cooper a SLIGHT advantage here.
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It was halfway a joke, and I think your analyses are generally excellent. I just think in this case you're underestimating Fudd's defensive prowess and shooting efficiency.
 
How do Azzi's and Talaysia's minutes per game compare? Without checking any stats, I believe Azzi plays about 25 minutes per game. I would guess that Cooper's minutes are higher than that, despite the Tennessee substitution pattern, because she is TN's best player and most reliable scorer. She must take an awful lot of shots to have higher point totals than Azzi with such markedly lower shooting percentages.
 
@cferraro04 , How would you adjust your analysis now that it is known that Blanca will not play?
 
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I think it makes sense to conclude that Talaysia has a slight advantage. This isn’t the same as saying that she’s a better player than Azzi. I don’t think that’s what Sensei is saying here. I think the point is that if Tennessee makes this a competitive game, Talaysia will be key to that.
 
Bone Dog said:
I think it makes sense to conclude that Talaysia has a slight advantage. This isn’t the same as saying that she’s a better player than Azzi. I don’t think that’s what Sensei is saying here. I think the point is that if Tennessee makes this a competitive game, Talaysia will be key to that.
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1) Right, and it doesn't really matter which player you think is better. My question is why are they being compared to each other individually with past stats they compiled against different opponents in completely different type games (some blowouts, some close etc) under the assumption that they'll be guarding each other? For instance, in last year's game they only covered each other a couple times accidentally because of switches so no conclusion can be drawn from that.
2) If it's close, Cooper may well be a key to it. But if so, how would that indicate an individual advantage over Fudd if like last year, they aren't even each other's primary defender?
 
Bone Dog said:
I think it makes sense to conclude that Talaysia has a slight advantage. This isn’t the same as saying that she’s a better player than Azzi. I don’t think that’s what Sensei is saying here. I think the point is that if Tennessee makes this a competitive game, Talaysia will be key to that.
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Nah, it doesn't make sense for me. Especially given Sensei's explanation in post #41 where he brought in a view on how Cooper's stats improve the overall scoring opportunities for the Lady Vols. As soon as that card was played, then there should have been an acknowledgement of (1) shooting percentages and (2) turnovers.

Cooper's FG% (41.8) results in 8.35 misses per game. Contrasted against Azzi's 6.77 misses per game, that is a difference of 1.5 more misses for the Lady Vol offense. Similarly, Azzi's 1.4 TOs per game is half of Cooper's 2.8. Together, that is an opportunity loss of almost 3 shots per game.

At best (or worst), I would probably characterize it (statistically) as "Advantage Even".

FWIW, for somewhat similar reasons, I would also call the statistical match-up between Zee Spearman and Serah Williams as "Advantage Even" as well. Spearman has a FG% of 39.4 - which is horrific for a power forward. It results in 6.05 misses per game, whereas Serah is only averaging 2.28 misses per game due to her superb 57.9 FG%.

Furthermore, part of Zee's poor FG percentage is the fact that she is launching 3.5 shots behind the arc per game, but making only one. In essence, her 25.7 3P% actually hurts her team since everyone else collectively is at 32.6%. Hence, when comparing these two players, I see Spearman making 1.1 three pointers per game as a negative attribute, not a positive one.

That said, I love Sensei's analysis for these games as it provides food for thought at both the player and team level. Good stuff!
 
Live Stats &1:
&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games are available via this schedule.
  • The link is removed for played games.
  • The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.
 
BobbyJ said:
My question is why are they being compared to each other individually with past stats they compiled against different opponents in completely different type games (some blowouts, some close etc) under the assumption that they'll be guarding each other?
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Your wariness about the ‘matchup’ form of analysis is reasonable. I just don’t think this objection gets to the heart of Sensei’s intent here. The point is to show the role each one plays on their own team. If Tennessee makes a game of this, it will be because Talaysia has played well within Kim’s team concept. My bet is we won’t allow Tennessee to play according to that concept, but will enforce our will upon them. And Azzi will surely have a lot to do with that. Of course, you’re right that all the switching we do will mean that Ash and Sarah will have as much to do with knocking Talaysia off her game as anyone.

I think of this game by comparison to the tOSU game. Similar pressing style without the ‘hockey line switching’ baloney. Tennessee is a bit taller than tOSU, but not nearly as offensively talented. The one team needs easy transition buckets to power their offense, the other is talented enough to score in the halfcourt offense against a tough defensive team.

If we keep our turnovers low, our switching defense should be able to smother their halfcourt offense. The other advantage our team concept has is that we can run our transition offense after rebounds or even made shots, not just on forced turnovers. Their defense is designed to press after makes, and doesn’t do so well defending against an opponent’s transition offense. This is one reason they’ve struggled in losses this season, especially in the Louisville game. What Louisville did to them in the second half, and they did it without forcing a ton of turnovers.

Two differences from the Louisville game I expect: first we’ll turn them over more — Louisville forced only 17 turnovers, and gave up 20 themselves. Second, we probably won’t outrebound them by such a huge margin (59-37). I have a feeling Tennessee won’t have as many shot attempts, which will keep the rebounding numbers down.
 
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I think this game confirms Sensei's read of the situation. Azzi dominated and Talaysia floundered. The matchup analysis said to me that the only way Tennessee steals an upset is if Talaysia dominates and Azzi flounders.
 
Bone Dog said:
I think this game confirms Sensei's read of the situation. Azzi dominated and Talaysia floundered. The matchup analysis said to me that the only way Tennessee steals an upset is if Talaysia dominates and Azzi flounders.
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Yeah, it's too bad that Tennessee didn't utilize that advantage he gave them with Cooper over Fudd. 😉
 
Okay, guys...you got me. I definitely got the Fudd/Cooper matchup wrong.
Fudd: 39 minutes; 27 points, 5/8 (3s); 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 2 TOs
Coop: 28 minutes; 8 points; 2/3 (3s); 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals; 0 blocks, 4 TOs

Yep! I got my proverbial butt handed to me on that one, that's for sure.

Now, the question is, how do I feel about it? Well, for starters, I'm thrilled! I am thrilled that Azzi got out of the small funk she was in about making threes. She has been very inconsistent with three-pointers since mid-January (1/15 Villanova - 28.6%; 1/19 ND - 0%; 1/22 GTown - 25%; 1/24 Seton Hall - 75%; 1/28 Xavier - 14%; Today (thank God) Tennessee - 62.5%). I am absolutely thrilled to see her break out of that small 3-pointer slump, and, to be honest, to pigeonhole Azzi as a mere three-point shooter is to do her an injustice. She had one of her best all-around games today. She took Cooper to the woodshed...7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and a block...while leading UConn in scoring. You really can't ask any more of a kid in a basketball game.

Yep, I got this matchup wrong, and I am happy to come here and admit it. My 14-point MOV was wrong, too, and I can't say that I am saddened by that either. That second half was a thing of beauty. After UConn jumped out to a 16-point early lead, only to watch it evaporate to a tie game at halftime, left me thinking, "here we go again." Here is another team that is playing over its head, giving UConn its best game, and we are going to be lucky to win this one. Well, luck had nothing to do with it! UConn showed why it is the best team in the nation in the second half, taking the number 15 team in the nation, which was playing its best basketball, and beating them 54 to 24.
 
cferraro04 said:
Okay, guys...you got me. I definitely got the Fudd/Cooper matchup wrong.
Fudd: 39 minutes; 27 points, 5/8 (3s); 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 2 TOs
Coop: 28 minutes; 8 points; 2/3 (3s); 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals; 0 blocks, 4 TOs

Yep! I got my proverbial butt handed to me on that one, that's for sure.

Now, the question is, how do I feel about it? Well, for starters, I'm thrilled! I am thrilled that Azzi got out of the small funk she was in about making threes. She has been very inconsistent with three-pointers since mid-January (1/15 Villanova - 28.6%; 1/19 ND - 0%; 1/22 GTown - 25%; 1/24 Seton Hall - 75%; 1/28 Xavier - 14%; Today (thank God) Tennessee - 62.5%). I am absolutely thrilled to see her break out of that small 3-pointer slump, and, to be honest, to pigeonhole Azzi as a mere three-point shooter is to do her an injustice. She had one of her best all-around games today. She took Cooper to the woodshed...7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and a block...while leading UConn in scoring. You really can't ask any more of a kid in a basketball game.

Yep, I got this matchup wrong, and I am happy to come here and admit it. My 14-point MOV was wrong, too, and I can't say that I am saddened by that either. That second half was a thing of beauty. After UConn jumped out to a 16-point early lead, only to watch it evaporate to a tie game at halftime, left me thinking, "here we go again." Here is another team that is playing over its head, giving UConn its best game, and we are going to be lucky to win this one. Well, luck had nothing to do with it! UConn showed why it is the best team in the nation in the second half, taking the number 15 team in the nation, which was playing its best basketball, and beating them 54 to 24.
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As I said in my earlier post, the game turned on the efficient numbers represented by the shooting percentages for each team year-to-date. Uconn exceeded theirs, TN matched theirs. That and team defensive efficiency which is not part of you analysis.

Your posts are great for what they are - starters v starters, aggregate bench v aggregate bench, and coach v coach. In any game a player can shine or wilt and with Uconn's stellar defense, the opponent is much more likely to fall into the 'wilt' category.

(But I am never betting against Azzi even if she is in a slump! 😎 )
 
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