Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Tennessee | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Tennessee

The problem with our esteemed colleagues rudimentary analysis is it omits the glaring team weaknesses and other teams strengths. To wit, Tennessee fouls an astounding 18.4 per game meaning most times the opposing team is at the foul line at some point during the quarter in the bonus. Additionally. Tennessee turns over the ball 15.1 times per game while only averaging 14.3 assists per game, which if you have watched any of the LV games you would know this IS NOT a team first focus but a constant 1 on 1 style of play. They hoist an astonishing 31 three pt shots per game, making a woeful 30%. On their bright side they do rebound an unheard of 40% of their misses (compared to the NCAA average of 23%), allowing them to score on 39% of those meaning they do score on 41% of their 3 pt attempts.
This team likes to press but they are not good one on one defenders so teams who pass well will easily break their press and score and then in the half court set, opposing teams will get good looks, easy back door cuts and get a lot of free throws due to the excessive fouling.
In short, what UConn does well is not what Tenn is capable of stopping.

Their best 3 pt shooter is Mia Pauldo at a very pedestrian.336 and their best field goal shooter is Janiah Barker at .460 their best by 20%, next best is another Freshman Jada Civil At .440

This team will struggle mightily against UConn in a half court set. Simply put, Tenn will have run and gun quickly in the shot clock hoping they make an unheard of amount of 3 pt shots before they get smothered by the Huskies defense. Playing fast is exactly what UConn wants. This Huskies team does play quick but controlled while TN plays undisciplined.

Individual analysis is nice but this is a team game and this comparison of teams is both sides of the axioms:
1. The sum of parts is LESS than the whole (UConn)
2. The sum of the parts is greater than the whole (Tenn).

This should be a dominant win by UConn if Blanca plays, a big win if she doesn’t. Tenn only has a chance if they have an unbelievable 3 pt shooting game.
 
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DefenseBB said:
Individual analysis is nice but this is a team game
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I think this is a fair criticism. The individual stat comparisons have something of the naive about them, as if they were a ‘first blush’ approach to thinking about an upcoming game.

The virtue of this approach is that it gives some idea of where trouble may come from if things go sideways in the game. Who will be the break out scorer, or rebounder or defender? This is especially useful if you haven’t had time to watch any of the opponent’s games. Of course, careful film study and advanced stats will give a much more nuanced view of the matchups and team cohesion.

I fall into the naive category with regard to most BE games. OOC games are a different story. Louisville, Michigan, tOSU, ND, USC, and Tennessee are well covered by television. I’ve already seen several hours of Tennessee games and come to similar conclusions to yours. But as for Xavier, the only game of theirs I’d seen before this weeks action was our prior game.
 
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DefenseBB said:
The problem with our esteemed colleagues rudimentary analysis is it omits the glaring team weaknesses and other teams strengths. To wit, Tennessee fouls an astounding 18.4 per game meaning most times the opposing team is at the foul line at some point during the quarter in the bonus. Additionally. Tennessee turns over the ball 15.1 times per game while only averaging 14.3 assists per game, which if you have watched any of the LV games you would know this IS NOT a team first focus but a constant 1 on 1 style of play. They hoist an astonishing 31 three pt shots per game, making a woeful 30%. On their bright side they do rebound an unheard of 40% of their misses (compared to the NCAA average of 23%), allowing them to score on 39% of those meaning they do score on 41% of their 3 pt attempts.
This team likes to press but they are not good one on one defenders so teams who pass well will easily break their press and score and then in the half court set, opposing teams will get good looks, easy back door cuts and get a lot of free throws due to the excessive fouling.
In short, what UConn does well is not what Tenn is capable of stopping.

Their best 3 pt shooter is Mia Pauldo at a very pedestrian.336 and their best field goal shooter is Janiah Barker at .460 their best by 20%, next best is another Freshman Jada Civil At .440

This team will struggle mightily against UConn in a half court set. Simply put, Tenn will have run and gun quickly in the shot clock hoping they make an unheard of amount of 3 pt shots before they get smothered by the Huskies defense. Playing fast is exactly what UConn wants. This Huskies team does play quick but controlled while TN plays undisciplined.

Individual analysis is nice but this is a team game and this comparison of teams is both sides of the axioms:
1. The sum of parts is LESS than the whole (UConn)
2. The sum of the parts is greater than the whole (Tenn).

This should be a dominant win by UConn if Blanca plays, a big win if she doesn’t. Tenn only has a chance if they have an unbelievable 3 pt shooting game.
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What would make "Game Analysis" better is that in addition to player-by-player comparisons, a whole team versus a whole team comparison, much as you have done here. Nan alluded to this in an earlier post on the whole KK game, not just the numbers in the Game Analysis.
 
Thanks for the analysis. I don’t agree particularly with the KK matchup though.

TN has not seen a defense like UConn’s. Not by a long shot. I see a lot of turnovers. UConn should be up by 30 at some point. Geno will probably pull the starters in the 4th. He’s too nice!!! LOL
 
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Here are Tennessee’s stats

IMG_4765.jpeg
 
WBBZen said:
Spearman got very early fouls in the State game and if Sarah can drive to the basket and put some early fouls on her that would be really helpful.
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This would be nice but ..............

Every referee crew is different, and the same crews aren't necessarily consistent game to game, or even first half to second half. Obviously, teams need to quickly adjust to whether the officials are letting them play or are calling even the slightest touch fouls.

Likewise, how a player does game to game varies. So just because Spearman was foul prone against State doesn't mean she'll be that way against us.

But you're right - I hope Sarah and most everyone else drives hard to the basket. Just sound basketball that this Husky team excels at.
 
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Important notes from pregame press

Serah is back, Blanca and Carol still out.

Blanca will definitely be missed matching up against Tennessee. But we may also play more small ball, and Tennessee guards are their weak point. If we can get hot from 3 it’s over. I’d like to see more of Sarah working the mid range and K9 driving and kicking to the perimeter like we saw against Xavier.
 
WBBZen said:
Important notes from pregame press

Serah is back, Blanca and Carol still out.

Blanca will definitely be missed matching up against Tennessee. But we may also play more small ball, and Tennessee guards are their weak point. If we can get hot from 3 it’s over. I’d like to see more of Sarah working the mid range and K9 driving and kicking to the perimeter like we saw against Xavier.
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I'm very disappointed to hear it. This game is the perfect platform for Blanca's talents. A pressing team tries to create chaos, and chaos is Blanca's natural element.

Another player who might thrive in such a game is Morgan. Sadly, it looks like we won't see her on the court until next season.
 
fomalhaut said:
Am I living in some alternate universe where Talaysia Cooper is better than Azzi Fudd?
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Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Talaysia Cooper, 6'0" - Redshirt Junior - Talaysia is averaging 14.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.4 steals per game, and .4 blocks per game. Azzi Fudd averages 16.7 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .4 blocks per game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Category Player Stat
Points Cooper 14.4
Fudd 16.7
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Three-pointers Cooper 1.8
Fudd 2,8
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Rebounds Cooper 5.7
Fudd 2.5
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Assists Cooper 4.1
Fudd 2.9
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Steals Cooper 3.4
Fudd 2.3
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Blocks Cooper .4
Fudd .4
ADVANTAGE - Even

When you look at the stats on paper...And Fudd only has a 2.3 point advantage over Cooper in the scoring category. Then you look at Cooper's advantages: Cooper gets 3.2 more rebounds than Fudd, giving her team more chances to score. Cooper gets 1.2 more assists than Fudd, meaning she participates in Tennessee scoring at least one more basket than Fudd...this essentially erases Fudd's 2-point scoring advantage and even things out with regards to scoring and steals. Cooper gets one more steal per game than Fudd, giving her team another possession. I do not think it is unfeasible to give Cooper a SLIGHT advantage here.
 
cferraro04 said:
Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Talaysia Cooper, 6'0" - Redshirt Junior - Talaysia is averaging 14.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.4 steals per game, and .4 blocks per game. Azzi Fudd averages 16.7 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .4 blocks per game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Category Player Stat
Points Cooper 14.4
Fudd 16.7
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Three-pointers Cooper 1.8
Fudd 2,8
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Rebounds Cooper 5.7
Fudd 2.5
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Assists Cooper 4.1
Fudd 2.9
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Steals Cooper 3.4
Fudd 2.3
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Blocks Cooper .4
Fudd .4
ADVANTAGE - Even

When you look at the stats on paper...And Fudd only has a 2.3 point advantage over Cooper in the scoring category. Then you look at Cooper's advantages: Cooper gets 3.2 more rebounds than Fudd, giving her team more chances to score. Cooper gets 1.2 more assists than Fudd, meaning she participates in Tennessee scoring at least one more basket than Fudd...this essentially erases Fudd's 2-point scoring advantage and even things out with regards to scoring and steals. Cooper gets one more steal per game than Fudd, giving her team another possession. I do not think it is unfeasible to give Cooper a SLIGHT advantage here.
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So you’re saying that in a close game, you’d rather have Cooper than Fudd and stats and paper might decide the game? I think I’ll take the proven better player which is Fudd and if you give any coach in the country their choice, I believe they would too. That’s why a bunch of stats accumulated against different opponents in different situations really have no bearing on this particular game.
 
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Cooper’s overall FG% is 41.8% and 31.9% from three. Azzi’s overall FG% is 47.7% and 43.1% from three. She is a more efficient player and her performances are especially impressive because she’s often guarding the opponent’s best player
 
HuskyNan said:
Cooper’s overall FG% is 41.8% and 31.9% from three. Azzi’s overall FG% is 47.7% and 43.1% from three. She is a more efficient player and her performances are especially impressive because she’s often guarding the opponent’s best player
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Yeah but Cooper averages 3 more rebounds per game because she had a big game of 11 against Coppin St. in a 53 pt blowout.
 
cferraro04 said:
Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Talaysia Cooper, 6'0" - Redshirt Junior - Talaysia is averaging 14.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.4 steals per game, and .4 blocks per game. Azzi Fudd averages 16.7 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .4 blocks per game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Category Player Stat
Points Cooper 14.4
Fudd 16.7
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Three-pointers Cooper 1.8
Fudd 2,8
ADVANTAGE - Fudd

Rebounds Cooper 5.7
Fudd 2.5
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Assists Cooper 4.1
Fudd 2.9
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Steals Cooper 3.4
Fudd 2.3
ADVANTAGE - Cooper

Blocks Cooper .4
Fudd .4
ADVANTAGE - Even

When you look at the stats on paper...And Fudd only has a 2.3 point advantage over Cooper in the scoring category. Then you look at Cooper's advantages: Cooper gets 3.2 more rebounds than Fudd, giving her team more chances to score. Cooper gets 1.2 more assists than Fudd, meaning she participates in Tennessee scoring at least one more basket than Fudd...this essentially erases Fudd's 2-point scoring advantage and even things out with regards to scoring and steals. Cooper gets one more steal per game than Fudd, giving her team another possession. I do not think it is unfeasible to give Cooper a SLIGHT advantage here.
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It was halfway a joke, and I think your analyses are generally excellent. I just think in this case you're underestimating Fudd's defensive prowess and shooting efficiency.
 
How do Azzi's and Talaysia's minutes per game compare? Without checking any stats, I believe Azzi plays about 25 minutes per game. I would guess that Cooper's minutes are higher than that, despite the Tennessee substitution pattern, because she is TN's best player and most reliable scorer. She must take an awful lot of shots to have higher point totals than Azzi with such markedly lower shooting percentages.
 
I think it makes sense to conclude that Talaysia has a slight advantage. This isn’t the same as saying that she’s a better player than Azzi. I don’t think that’s what Sensei is saying here. I think the point is that if Tennessee makes this a competitive game, Talaysia will be key to that.
 
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Bone Dog said:
I think it makes sense to conclude that Talaysia has a slight advantage. This isn’t the same as saying that she’s a better player than Azzi. I don’t think that’s what Sensei is saying here. I think the point is that if Tennessee makes this a competitive game, Talaysia will be key to that.
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1) Right, and it doesn't really matter which player you think is better. My question is why are they being compared to each other individually with past stats they compiled against different opponents in completely different type games (some blowouts, some close etc) under the assumption that they'll be guarding each other? For instance, in last year's game they only covered each other a couple times accidentally because of switches so no conclusion can be drawn from that.
2) If it's close, Cooper may well be a key to it. But if so, how would that indicate an individual advantage over Fudd if like last year, they aren't even each other's primary defender?
 
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