Game Analysis - Game 20 - UConn vs Villanova (2nd Act)

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This is the second meeting between these teams. The first was held at Finneran Pavillion and UConn won that game easily 83-52 (31-point victory). Sarah Strong had 21, Paige had 15 and KK had her best offensive outing of the season going off for 15 points as well. We saw how good UConn's defense was coming along as UConn could hold Jasmine Boscoe to 12 points and Maddie Webber to 5. This game will be played in front of UConn's home crowd and if UConn plays anywhere near as well as they did against Seton Hall they will win this one easily. It was interesting to see Aubrey get 11 minutes in her first game back. I expect to see her getting more minutes and getting back into game shape which in my opinion (I'm sure in many other people's as well) does not bode well for UConn's competition. UConn is an offensive juggernaut when compared to Villanova with UConn averaging 79.5 points and Villanova averaging 65.2 points per game. Now that UConn has three strong, healthy players they will be even more difficult to contain...Paige, Sarah, and Azzi going forward are going to be extremely challenging for every team UConn faces. We are seeing UConn's offense, its 3-point shooting, and its defense coming together and it is a great time in the season to be doing so especially with Tennessee and South Carolina lurking in our near future.

This game should see our starters playing roughly about 3 periods and our bench getting significant minutes as Geno begins to cement his thinking as to who his starters and dependable subs will be as he begins to shorten the bench moving toward the post-season. Overall, I look for Villanova's starters to be undersized compared to UConn: 2 forwards and 3 guards (6'0", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11" and 5'7"). Villanova will start with two graduates, one junior, one sophomore, and one freshman.

RPI / SoS:

Villanova's RPI - 48
Villanova's opponent's RPI: 4, 12, 26, 37, 43, 47, 56, 57, 63, 68, 94, 103, 103, 109, 111, 130, 168, 201, 312

UConn's RPI - 4
UConn's opponent's RPI: 5, 10, 12, 31, 43, 48, 60, 68, 68, 70, 92, 103, 108, 111, 133, 149, 163, 257, 259

Villanova's SoS - 8
Villanova's opponent's SOS: 9, 10, 24, 37, 38, 51, 53, 55, 73, 83, 104, 104, 113, 119, 131, 139, 244, 276, 292

UConn's SoS - 9
UConn's opponent's SoS: 8, 10, 14, 21, 22, 24, 24, 36, 37, 40, 59, 74, 104, 131, 141, 196, 255, 274, 357

PLAYER MATCH-UP:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - R-Freshman - Center vs Denae Carter, 6'0" - Freshman - Forward. In the first match-up on January 5th Carter had 10 points and 5 rebounds while El-Aly had 7 points and 5 rebounds. Jana is improving and must be more assertive in this match-up. On the season Denae averages 9.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .7 steals, and 1.2 blocks. Jana has averaged 5.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .5 steals, and .7 blocks. Even though this is a home game in front of a friendly crowd, I don't anticipate this match-up changing much this time.
ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Maddie Burke, 6'0" - Graduate - Guard. In the first match-up, Maddie Burke had 9 points, 3 three-pointers, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists. Sarah Strong had 21 points, 2 three-pointers, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. Maddie averages 7.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers per game. Sarah averages 16.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 1.8 three-pointers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - R-Senior - Guard vs Maddie Webber, 5'11", Sophomore - Guard. In the first match-up, Maddie Webber had 5 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 1 block, and went 1 for 6 for three-pointers. Paige had 15 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block, and she went 1 for 3 for three-pointers. Maddie averages 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and .8 steals, and she makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Paige averages 19.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.0 steals and she makes 1.94 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Bronag Power-Casssidy, 5'10" - Graduate - Guard. In the first match-up, Bronag Power-Cassidy had 7 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 three-pointer while Azzi Fudd had 8 points, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers. Currently, Bronag is averaging 7.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .7 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers. Azzi is averaging 11.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .8 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jasmine Boscoe, 5'7" - Freshman - Guard. In the first match-up, Jasmine had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 2 three-pointers. Kaitlyn was held scoreless, she had 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals. For the season Jasmine has been averaging 15.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. Kaitlyn averages 5.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 9 steals, and .5 three-pointers per game. The advantage in this match-up is obvious thankfully we have KK who can come in for Kaitlyn if she isn't able to contain Jasmine. However, as far as the starting match-up goes... ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

BENCH:

With the return of Aubrey Grifin, UConn's strong bench has just gotten stronger. UConn will bring 30.4 points, and 17.2 rebounds off the bench. Villanova will bring 18.4 points and 12.3 rebounds. In the first match-up, UConn had 32 points from the bench to Villanova's nine.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

UConn's coaching staff is happy with the progress UConn has been making on both ends of the court. Historically UConn owns Villanova with a 45-7 margin of wins versus losses. Geno, Chris, and the coaching staff will have this one in the bag by the end of the first half.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Home game for UConn, friendly crowd, Aubrey is back, and the big three are feeling more comfortable with each other. The bench is contributing.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 91
VILLANOVA - 55
MOV - 46

 

[Zarathustra]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This is the second meeting between these teams. The first was held at Finneran Pavillion and UConn won that game easily 83-52 (31-point victory). Sarah Strong had 21, Paige had 15 and KK had her best offensive outing of the season going off for 15 points as well. We saw how good UConn's defense was coming along as UConn could hold Jasmine Boscoe to 12 points and Maddie Webber to 5. This game will be played in front of UConn's home crowd and if UConn plays anywhere near as well as they did against Seton Hall they will win this one easily. It was interesting to see Aubrey get 11 minutes in her first game back. I expect to see her getting more minutes and getting back into game shape which in my opinion (I'm sure in many other people's as well) does not bode well for UConn's competition. UConn is an offensive juggernaut when compared to Villanova with UConn averaging 79.5 points and Villanova averaging 65.2 points per game. Now that UConn has three strong, healthy players they will be even more difficult to contain...Paige, Sarah, and Azzi going forward are going to be extremely challenging for every team UConn faces. We are seeing UConn's offense, its 3-point shooting, and its defense coming together and it is a great time in the season to be doing so especially with Tennessee and South Carolina lurking in our near future.

This game should see our starters playing roughly about 3 periods and our bench getting significant minutes as Geno begins to cement his thinking as to who his starters and dependable subs will be as he begins to shorten the bench moving toward the post-season. Overall, I look for Villanova's starters to be undersized compared to UConn: 2 forwards and 3 guards (6'0", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11" and 5'7"). Villanova will start with two graduates, one junior, one sophomore, and one freshman.

RPI / SoS:

Villanova's RPI - 48
Villanova's opponent's RPI: 4, 12, 26, 37, 43, 47, 56, 57, 63, 68, 94, 103, 103, 109, 111, 130, 168, 201, 312

UConn's RPI - 4
UConn's opponent's RPI: 5, 10, 12, 31, 43, 48, 60, 68, 68, 70, 92, 103, 108, 111, 133, 149, 163, 257, 259

Villanova's SoS - 8
Villanova's opponent's SOS: 9, 10, 24, 37, 38, 51, 53, 55, 73, 83, 104, 104, 113, 119, 131, 139, 244, 276, 292

UConn's SoS - 9
UConn's opponent's SoS: 8, 10, 14, 21, 22, 24, 24, 36, 37, 40, 59, 74, 104, 131, 141, 196, 255, 274, 357

PLAYER MATCH-UP:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - R-Freshman - Center vs Denae Carter, 6'0" - Freshman - Forward. In the first match-up on January 5th Carter had 10 points and 5 rebounds while El-Aly had 7 points and 5 rebounds. Jana is improving and must be more assertive in this match-up. On the season Denae averages 9.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .7 steals, and 1.2 blocks. Jana has averaged 5.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .5 steals, and .7 blocks. Even though this is a home game in front of a friendly crowd, I don't anticipate this match-up changing much this time.
ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Maddie Burke, 6'0" - Graduate - Guard. In the first match-up, Maddie Burke had 9 points, 3 three-pointers, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists. Sarah Strong had 21 points, 2 three-pointers, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. Maddie averages 7.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers per game. Sarah averages 16.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 1.8 three-pointers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - R-Senior - Guard vs Maddie Webber, 5'11", Sophomore - Guard. In the first match-up, Maddie Webber had 5 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 1 block, and went 1 for 6 for three-pointers. Paige had 15 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block, and she went 1 for 3 for three-pointers. Maddie averages 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and .8 steals, and she makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Paige averages 19.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.0 steals and she makes 1.94 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Bronag Power-Casssidy, 5'10" - Graduate - Guard. In the first match-up, Bronag Power-Cassidy had 7 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 three-pointer while Azzi Fudd had 8 points, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers. Currently, Bronag is averaging 7.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .7 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers. Azzi is averaging 11.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .8 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jasmine Boscoe, 5'7" - Freshman - Guard. In the first match-up, Jasmine had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 2 three-pointers. Kaitlyn was held scoreless, she had 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals. For the season Jasmine has been averaging 15.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. Kaitlyn averages 5.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 9 steals, and .5 three-pointers per game. The advantage in this match-up is obvious thankfully we have KK who can come in for Kaitlyn if she isn't able to contain Jasmine. However, as far as the starting match-up goes... ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

BENCH:

With the return of Aubrey Grifin, UConn's strong bench has just gotten stronger. UConn will bring 30.4 points, and 17.2 rebounds off the bench. Villanova will bring 18.4 points and 12.3 rebounds. In the first match-up, UConn had 32 points from the bench to Villanova's nine.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

UConn's coaching staff is happy with the progress UConn has been making on both ends of the court. Historically UConn owns Villanova with a 45-7 margin of wins versus losses. Geno, Chris, and the coaching staff will have this one in the bag by the end of the first half.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Home game for UConn, friendly crowd, Aubrey is back, and the big three are feeling more comfortable with each other. The bench is contributing.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 91
VILLANOVA - 55
MOV - 46

You do mean: 91 - 55 = MOV 36 ?

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei!

It’s surprising, even chastening to see how right you were about Jana/Ice v Danae Carter. You hit that one on the nail, and I was clearly mistaken. It will be interesting to see what Jana and Ice can do with her this time in a friendly court.

As for Kaitlyn/KK, I still read that one differently, but only because I don’t treat our platoon PG separately. It’s Geno’s huge advantage this season that he has depth at this position. Bascoe will still be a handful this time around. She’s feisty and players like that don’t back down. She’s also the key to their entire offense. If Kaitlyn/KK (and Aubrey?) hold her to 12 again, it will be another long day for Villanova. Ash and Morgan will probably also spend some time guarding her.

I think you’re also right that the shortening of the rotation has to begin soon. The return of Aubrey may even be the catalyst this season since she needs to be worked into the rotation soon if she’s going to ready for Tennessee and SC.

And thinking of the tournament, Paige Azzi and Sarah have to be ready to play at least 30 mpg, I’m not sure how much else will change, some spots may only shrink a little to accommodate Aubrey, who could get 15-20 mins if she progresses well. For example, Morgan may stick in Geno’s small lineup. And Ash is too important to lose much time. The platoons at PG and C are not likely to contract much, but they may have to shrink at least a little. That said, I don’t think we’ve seen lineups that didn’t have either KK or Kaitlyn.

Many of us have dreamt of the Big Three dominating in the tournament this time around. And we may be right, but I’m beginning to wonder how short the rotation will get this season. I’m just musing on building chemistry and how this takes time. I’d love to see an analysis comparing lineups to see where the best chemistry is and where it grows as we go forward. Short of that, the SC game is likely to reveal a lot about Geno’s thinking about his tournament rotation.

 

[YKCornelius]

I think you’re also right that the shortening of the rotation has to begin soon. The return of Aubrey may even be the catalyst this season since she needs to be worked into the rotation soon if she’s going to ready for Tennessee and SC.

Bone Dog, in "shortening of the rotation" if you are referring to the number of players who will see significant playing time, I don't think there is a need to begin shortening the rotation anytime soon. In fact, I think it is prudent for Geno to wait until the Big East Tournament before he does that. I believe it is imperative that he continues to develop his bigs (Sarah, Jana, and Ice) with not only his "senior guard corps (Paige, Azzi and Kaitlyn) but with his "reserve"guard corps (KK, Ash and Aubrey), while being able to come in with our three-point sharpshooters (Morgan and Allie) as necessary.

What I think will happen is - barring any injuries - we will see a reduction in the different combinations of players on the court that we have seen so far this season. That, in itself, might translate to reduced minutes for specific players, or at least a continuation of the number of minutes we have seen in the BE blowouts to date.

In my mind, the read on both the Tennessee and South Carolina games will be how much playing time Morgan and Allie get. Morgan received a lot of playing time against USC and a handful of minutes at ND. Allie had none in both games, so she is a huge question mark in how she performs in front of very large, non-friendly crowds. If either of these freshmen are limited in Tennessee, then they will be limited in South Carolina as well, and hence will be limited in the BE and NCAA tourneys. Again, barring injuries, knock on wood.

With Aubrey back, I will also be keying in on the floor combinations in the first three quarters - before we get to mop-up time in the fourth quarter.

Bottom line: iI am less inclined to care about minutes on the floor than I am about player combinations on the court. A lot to develop over the next 12 games.

 

[Next 12]

Bone Dog, in "shortening of the rotation" if you are referring to the number of players who will see significant playing time, I don't think there is a need to begin shortening the rotation anytime soon. In fact, I think it is prudent for Geno to wait until the Big East Tournament before he does that. I believe it is imperative that he continues to develop his bigs (Sarah, Jana, and Ice) with not only his "senior guard corps (Paige, Azzi and Kaitlyn) but with his "reserve"guard corps (KK, Ash and Aubrey), while being able to come in with our three-point sharpshooters (Morgan and Allie) as necessary.

What I think will happen is - barring any injuries - we will see a reduction in the different combinations of players on the court that we have seen so far this season. That, in itself, might translate to reduced minutes for specific players, or at least a continuation of the number of minutes we have seen in the BE blowouts to date.

In my mind, the read on both the Tennessee and South Carolina games will be how much playing time Morgan and Allie get. Morgan received a lot of playing time against USC and a handful of minutes at ND. Allie had none in both games, so she is a huge question mark in how she performs in front of very large, non-friendly crowds. If either of these freshmen are limited in Tennessee, then they will be limited in South Carolina as well, and hence will be limited in the BE and NCAA tourneys. Again, barring injuries, knock on wood.

With Aubrey back, I will also be keying in on the floor combinations in the first three quarters - before we get to mop-up time in the fourth quarter.

Bottom line: iI am less inclined to care about minutes on the floor than I am about player combinations on the court. A lot to develop over the next 12 games.

AMEN! I'm with you. GENO should give all his players as much time as possible for them to gain the confidence and cohesion that will be necessary to play against the top tier teams. The next 4 games are teaching games against the BE and will prepare Uconn for TENN. and So Carolina coming up.A win against both will show EVERY ONE we are ready.Uconn will win the BE title and has as good, if not better chance of winning it all. My opinion. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO SOPHOMORES!!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[Centerstream]

@cferraro04 a suggestion. In your player vs player analysis for the 2nd time meeting, maybe you should include their minutes played. For example, in comparing Jana vs her Nova matchup, Carter played 26 minutes and Jana only played 16.

 

[cferraro04]

@cferraro04 a suggestion. In your player vs player analysis for the 2nd time meeting, maybe you should include their minutes played. For example, in comparing Jana vs her Nova matchup, Carter played 26 minutes and Jana only played 16.

I like that suggestion... a little more work but it is reasonable considering its value...thanks

 

[Centerstream]

I like that suggestion... a little more work but it is reasonable considering its value...thanks

Thank you.

 

[HuskyNan]

I like that suggestion... a little more work but it is reasonable considering its value...thanks

Here you go, Sensei. For anyone that doesn’t know, game box scores can be found at the UConn athletics web site

 

[Tonyc]

The more we play together the better we will get. Inserting non starters with the starters is going to show us who can play with the starters and who isnt hesitant. It is still important that everybody gets playtime for nothing more then development and confidence.

Griff needs to be worked in slowing. Morgan and I would really like to see of Allie. With that said down the road against athletic teams like Tenn and SC we will need everybody else playing with poise and not rushing. These next few games will help that.

 

[Bone Dog]

The more we play together the better we will get. Inserting non starters with the starters is going to show us who can play with the starters and who isnt hesitant. It is still important that everybody gets playtime for nothing more then development and confidence.

Griff needs to be worked in slowing. Morgan and I would really like to see of Allie. With that said down the road against athletic teams like Tenn and SC we will need everybody else playing with poise and not rushing. These next few games will help that.

That sounds nice in principle. But I think the chemistry issue is significant not only for the bottom of the rotation but also for the Big Three. They all need minutes, lots of ‘em, to get tournament ready, or even SC ready. There may not be enough time left in the season to develop the bottom of the rotation as much as we’d all like to see.

 

[Puppy Love]

Villanova's SoS - 8
Villanova's opponent's SOS: 9, 10, 24, 37, 38, 51, 53, 55, 73, 83, 104, 104, 113, 119, 131, 139, 244, 276, 292

UConn's SoS - 9
UConn's opponent's SoS: 8, 10, 14, 21, 22, 24, 24, 36, 37, 40, 59, 74, 104, 131, 141, 196, 255, 274, 357

Quick question…doesn’t seem like Nova has a stronger schedule than UConn…what is the source?

 

[Bone Dog]

Quick question…doesn’t seem like Nova has a stronger schedule than UConn…what is the source?

It looks like a typo. Massey currently ranks UConn’s SoS as 12 and Villanova’s as 24.

Even with this correction, Villanova’s SoS looks pretty good for a BE team. Creighton is ranked 21 and after them, DePaul is 61 and Seton Hall is 71.

 

[JoePgh]

@cferraro04 a suggestion. In your player vs player analysis for the 2nd time meeting, maybe you should include their minutes played. For example, in comparing Jana vs her Nova matchup, Carter played 26 minutes and Jana only played 16.

I would amend this suggestion slightly (and also perhaps make it easier for @cferraro04 to prepare these analyses). UConn now has two fairly obvious "platoon" situations: Jana/Ice at center and Kaitlyn/KK at point guard. When you look at these positions, I suggest that you don't just compare Jana to the opponent's center just because Jana starts; instead, compare the production of the other team's center to the combined production of Jana and Ice. Likewise for the PG position: compare the opponent's PG to the Kaitlyn/KK combination.

That means that you would "deduct" the contributions of KK and Ice from UConn's expected "bench" contributions, presumably resulting in a weaker-appearing UConn bench. (But Aubrey will make up for that.)

To be fair, if the opponent has a similar "platoon" situation where they have two players sharing the minutes at one position approximately equally, then you should treat their platoons in the same way as the UConn platoons.

 

[HuskyNan]

If someone would like a different analysis than the one @cferraro04 has been doing, feel free to do the research and add it to his thread

 

[Tonyc]

This game will show how much better we are vs then.

 

[OldSchooler]

Geno says they have slashed and streamlined the playbook, creating more of a "bar menu" than a "dinner menu." I guess this means "Everybody eats" is now "everybody drinks"?

 

[DEpup]

Or there are a lot of plays for the "wings" lol.