Game Analysis - Game 19 - UConn vs Seton Hall

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It appears that Seton Hall has two of its starter players on the IR list: Savannah Catalen - 13.1 pts / 3.2 rebounds and (2) three-pointers per game; Shalyn Pinkney - 6.4 points, 3.4 rebounds per game. They have played a 3 forward / 2 guard line-up the last 10 games starting the following players: Faith Masonius 6'1" / Forward; Yaya Lops 6'3" / Forward; Messiah Hunter 6'2 / Forward; Amari Wright 5'9" / Guard; Jada Eads 5'7" / Guard. They start with Three graduate students, 1 Junior, and 1 Freshman.

What jumps out to me when I look at the team stats is that Seton Hall while only committing 14 turnovers forces 20.4 turnovers on their opposition. This effort has resulted in the Pirates averaging 19.4 points off turnovers. This indicates that approximately one-third of their points per game come off turnovers. This is significant because they have been doing it against good teams. Their Strength of Schedule is 55 and their RPI is 47. It makes sense that their assists per game is low (14.5) considering they only average 65.8 points per game.

They haven't been a particularly good three-point shooting team but we know what that means (wink)...it means that more than likely we can expect one of their players to go off for 5-6 three-pointers against us. UConn is too deep for Seton Hall, we will be playing for the students at Gampel for the first time in quite a while. We may be getting Aubrey back so look for Geno to work her in on a limited-minute basis if she returns. Everyone will play in this game. Additionally, I think everyone will make the box score as well.

I have a couple of questions that I will be looking to see if UConn's play will answer. 1. Are there enough basketballs per minute played for our big three: Paige, Azzi, and Sarah to score 20 points each? 2. Will UConn play consistently for 4 quarters or will we see another game where UConn seems to take a quarter off? How will Aubrey look If she returns, how much rust will need to be shaken off before we see our beautiful, athletic stud come back into form? Will Ice realize that if she is going to contribute to this team in the post-season she has to make her move now?

RPI / SOS:

Seton Hall's RPI = 47
Seton Hall's Opponent's RPI: 5, 6, 8, 25, 52, 80, 89, 108, 110, 117, 137, 141, 191, 220, 261, 346, 349
UConn's RPI = 7
UConn's Opponent's RPI: 6, 10, 14, 31, 52, 59, 75, 80, 80, 84, 91, 108, 113, 136, 141, 148, 258, 267

Seton Hall's SOS = 55
Seton Hall's Opponent's SOS: 10, 13, 16, 21, 30, 32, 59, 73, 108, 126, 182, 187, 193, 219, 239, 248, 333
UConn's SOS = 11
UCONN'S Opponent's SOS: 9, 10, 16, 17, 19, 21, 21, 34, 46, 59, 68, 103, 126, 152, 210, 218, 299, 356



PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - R-Freshman - Center vs I'Yanna Lops, 6'3" - Graduate - Forward - I'yanna averages 9.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. She can also shoot from distance, averaging 1 three-pointer per game. She brings a lot of experience to the Seton Hall line-up. Jana is beginning to feel more comfortable in the lineup. She is averaging 6.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1 assist per game.
ADVANTAGE - SETON HALL

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Messiah Hunter, 6'2" - Junior - Forward - Messiah Hunter has broken into Seton Hall's lineup due to injuries to starters Shailyn Pinkney and Savannah Catalon. She will find Sarah to be a difficult assignment. Messiah averages 1.6 points, and 2.5 rebounds per game. It will be interesting to see if Seton Hall will sub her out early for Kayden Lawson who averages 5.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Sarah was quiet in the St. John's game but she only played about 20-some-odd minutes. I don't expect to see a repeat of that in this game where Sarah will be in friendly territory playing to the home crowd. Sarah averages 16.6 points, 1.7 three-pointers, 7.7 rebounds 3.7 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - R-Senior - Guard vs Faith Masonius, 6'1" - Graduate - Forward - This is the marque matchup of the game. Faith averages 17.4 points, .88 three-pointers, 4.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Faith has been prone to turning the ball over as she is averaging 3.52 turnovers per game. That is significant when you compare it to Paige's 1.3 turnovers per game. Paige averages 19.4 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 4.4 rebounds, 3,8 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11' - Graduate - Guard vs Amari Wright, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard - Seems like Amari Wright has been around forever...wait...she has. Amari averages 4.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Azzi is getting stronger and more comfortable being back on the floor and she is showing that she is much more than just a 3-point shooter. Azzi is averaging 10.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. Amari impacts the game in many ways with assists and steals but I think she will find Azzi to be a difficult assignment.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jada Eads, 5/7 - Freshman - Guard - Jada has been having a great freshman year for the Pirates. Jada has developed into quite a little stat-stuffer. She is averaging 14.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.47 three-pointers per game. Jada shoots the three-ball at about 37 percent. Kaitlyn will have her hands full with Jada but she should be able to handle the freshman pretty well if she can't then look for Geno to go with either Ashlynn or KK either one will be enough to contain Jada. Kaitlyn averages 5.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - SETON HALL

BENCH:

UConn will bring 26.9 points and 12.7 rebounds off the bench. If Aubrey gets to play in this one anything she brings to the table will be gravy. Seton Hall will bring 12.3 points and 11.8 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

I just don't see Geno and his staff being out-coached in this one. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Playing at home in front of the students at Gampel, with a full complement of players after a long time on the road... This one looks like show-time for the Huskies. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 85
Seton Hall - 61
MOV - 24

 

[Next 12]

This is a no sweat game, advanced practice. Uconn's record against Seton Hall is 51 wins and 1 loss. The players are progressing steadily and everyone should eat. Our defense is stellar and will be the deciding factor in the win. One of Seton Hall starting player is out and thjs will hurt them. Paige scores her 2000th poin t in front of the home crowd and the Fans will appreciate it more. Everyone on the team is doing their part to win. GO FRESHMEN!!!!! GO SOPHOMORES!!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[Tonyc]

I expect more time for the non starters getting them up to speed. A healthy Griff would make a big difference. Im sure Geno wants to get her playtime only if she is ready. If we have her healthy and 90% against Tenn and SC that would be huge. I think that could put us over the top in both games. IMO neither team has a Paige Azzi and Sarah that can put up points like they can. That could be the biggest advantage for UConn

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei! Excellent analysis.

The big three for SH is Masonius, Lops and Eads. This is a very solid core to a team that is bigger and more comfortable playing together than they’ve traditionally been. You’re right that the loss of Pinckney and Catelon is significant, but this is still one of the best of the BE teams. What might they have accomplished with them in the lineup? I think you can see that Anthony Bosella knew it too in the schedule he made up for them probably last year. Geno himself says they may be a tournament team, and he may not merely have been exaggerating to motivate his team.

We saw Faith Masonius last season in a hard fought game against Maryland and she was an important role player then. She’s big and strong and very fierce. I have no doubt Paige will not easily be contained by Faith or anyone else on SH. But it will still be fun to watch Faith play. She’s a veteran who’s finally getting her chance to shine at this level. She also has some experience against UConn.

I think you’re right that Lops will be a handful. She’s a capable scorer and a strong rebounder and defender. I suspect Jana and Ice will be a little much for her. But their platoon may get more minutes because Morgan (and Aubrey?) may not be ready to muscle up against Lops and Faith for very long. They are used to playing 35 mins/g and they are tough. This may be an opportunity to let our bigs get more exposure to aggressive forwards.

Like you, I’m sure Kaitlyn and KK are more than capable of containing Jada Eads. But she is still going to score some and defender them well. But our platoon will take a toll on her, too. KK and Kaitlyn bring a lot of defensive energy to every game, and lately more and more offense.

I like Bosella as a coach. He’s built a quality program at a school that doesn’t invest much in the women’s team. And he has a knack for finding diamonds in the rough. I love his postgame pressers — he’s a very straight shooter who doesn’t pull any punches.

I think you’re right about the MoV. It probably won’t get to 30, partly because Geno will play more of his bench again and partly because SH is a feisty squad.

I’d love to see Aubrey get some minutes though I’d be surprised if she plays even 10 altogether. She’ll have an emotional impact on this game, to be sure. She is also running out of time to make her case for the draft. Before her latest injury last season many of us thought she’d get drafted. Now, it’s not nearly so clear that she will.

Anyone who wants to see more of Faith’s game might enjoy watching the replay of last season’s game against Maryland. It was a ferocious game. The main event is Paige vs Shyanne and neither one disappoints, though Paige eventually took Shyanne to school as it were. But Faith also has a decent game against a very fired up UConn squad.

 

[YKCornelius]

When Catalon and Pickney went down a month ago, the Seton Hall offense became a two person show with Masonius and Eads. Bosella has used Lops largely in two ways: (a) as a relief valve when the opposing defenses bring a double team to the energetic Masonius, and (b) as a three-point shooter trying to draw out the other teams bigs when the oppnent goes man-to-man. The problem with the latter is Lops is not a good three point shooter.

I will be keyed-in on how the Huskies play defense. I don't expect Geno to double team Masonius because I believe he will want his relatively young bigs to gain experience playing man-to-man against an opponent who runs their offense through a mobile big. Tennessee and South Carolina mobile bigs are right around the corner.

Building blocks to March....

 

[HuskyNan]

Kaitlyn Chen has taken criticism for her lack of offense but her defense has been terrific. I like the Kaitlyn/KK tandem that has been frustrating opponents’ point guards recently. I would give the edge to graduate student Kaitlyn over freshman Jada Eads based on defense.

I’m looking forward to the Bueckers vs Masonius matchup.

 

[Huskee11]

LSU got up big against Seton Hall in the first half at Mohegan Sun in the first game of the Hall of Fame tournament in December. 52-25.

But Seton Hall played them even in the second half, and both Eads and Masonius were very good offensively. Masonius ended up with 29 and Eads with 20.

Eads is the kind of player that often gives us trouble, the small super-quick guard. Masonius is a veteran three level scorer.

In that game, those two took 63% of the field goal attempts for Seton Hall, 45 out of 71.

So UConn will need to focus on those two defensively.

 

[Bone Dog]

I’m looking forward to the Bueckers vs Masonius matchup.

I wonder how much time either will spend guarding the other. I’d expect Sarah to spend at least some time guarding Faith, and Azzi and Morgan too. And I don’t think she can really keep up with Paige. Amari Wright may well get more time with that assignment.

 

[HopJim]

Minor point but wondering how the number of quick Seton Hall guards that are good ball handlers will affect KK's minutes. The last game, they few had issues handling KK'S defense, and eventually Geno took her out to get more offense. May be a precursor of the SC and a few other games.

 

[JoePgh]

The phrase "trap game" occurs to me as I look at this match-up.

Seton Hall has a 5-1 record in the Big East, behind only UConn and Creighton. Their only conference loss was to Creighton, by 8 points at home on January 11. Seton Hall has defeated Marquette (by 6 points), Georgetown (by 3 points), Villanova (by 1 point on Masonius's amazing buzzer-beating shot), Butler (by 10 points), and Providence (by 11 points). Meanwhile, UConn's only Big East victory against an opponent with an above-.500 in-conference record was over Villanova. All but one of UConn's other conference wins have been against bottom dwellers in the Big East, whose collective in-conference record has been 6-23.

Obviously UConn has beaten common opponents in the Big East by much larger margins, and therefore should (famous last word) win this game fairly easily. But a 24-point MOV will happen only if UConn plays at least a B+ or A- game. If UConn plays this game at the B or C level, the result may be a close game, or even a loss if UConn fails to respect this opponent.

 

[Oldschoolbb]

I've gone to several of their games at Walsh Gym this year (free parking and $5 a game are nice). They are limited offensively, but their press is a real PITA. If you go in expecting an easy game, you might be surprised. I wouldn't take them too lightly.