Game Analysis - Game 19 - UConn vs Notre Dame | The Boneyard
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Game Analysis - Game 19 - UConn vs Notre Dame

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

Notre Dame is a depleted team, often dressing only six players. They are essentially 2 injuries or two players fouling out away from forfeiting their games. Of their remaining healthy players, three are averaging over 30 minutes per game, with Hildago getting 34.6 minutes, Cassandra Prosper at 33.5 minutes, and Vanessa DeJesus at 33.7 minutes per game. Their starting five is a very experienced team with 1 Junior (Hildago)., 1 senior (Prosper), and 3 graduate students (Moore, DeJesus, and Cowles). They start 6'3", 6'3", 5'8", 5'8", and 5'6". Their RPI = 58; Their SOS = 80, and their NET Ranking is 26. While UConn is currently: RPI - 1; SOS - 6; NET Ranking - 1. Their current record is 12-5.

Notre Dame averages: 83.6 points per game; 7.1 three-pointers; 12.7 free throws; 36.9 rebounds; 15.5 assists; 13 turnovers; 14.8 steals, 2.4 blocks per game.

UConn averages: 90 points, 9.5 three-pointers; 9.5 free throws; 38 rebounds; 24.3 assists; 13.1 turnovers; 15.8 steals; 4.9 blocks per game.

Notre Dame holds their opponents to 63.2 points per game while forcing 21.1 turnovers on their opponents.

UConn holds its opponents to 51.7 points per game while forcing 25.3 turnovers on its opponents.

Notre Dame's defense is rated 81.5, ranking them tied for 33rd nationally
UConn's defense is rated number one defensively in the nation. Sarah Strong is rated the number one defensive player in the country.

Notre Dame's problem in this game will be keeping up with UConn. They will be pretty gassed in the second half with only having one player coming off the bench. ND guards can not afford foul trouble, as they do not have any guards coming off the bench. Their only bench player as of the last game was 6'4" Gisela Sanchez (Graduate - Forward).

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Malaya Cowles, 6'3 - Graduate Forward - Malaya plays 27.2 minutes per game, and she averages 9.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 2.0 steals, .9 blocks per game. Serah plays 18.7 minutes per game, and she averages 7.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .8 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. The two mitigating factors in this matchup are the team defense played by UConn, which will probably result in reduced performance numbers-wise for Malaya, and the fact that Malaya averages roughly about 10 more minutes than Serah. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Cassandra Prosper, 6'3" - Graduate Guard - To begin with, Cassandra is a big guard. I don't think Cassandra declaring herself to be a guard will affect Sarah, who is perfectly capable of staying with her and defending her. Cassandra is averaging a respectable 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 blocks, and she hits .7 three-pointers per game. Cassandra is the second part of ND's two-headed snake. If UConn is successful in cutting off the heads of ND's two-headed snake, it will be a long day for ND, which will find it extremely difficult to score against UConn's highly vaunted defense. Sarah averages 18.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 3.7 steals, 1.6 blocks, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Iyana Moore, 5'8" - Graduate Guard - Iyana is averaging 9.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 14 steals, and hits 2.2 three-pointers per game. Azzi is averaging 17.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.3 steals, .4 blocks, and is hitting 3.1 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard v Hannah Hildago, 5'7" - Junior Guard - Hannah is averaging a team high 25 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 4.6 steals, and hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. However is should be mentioned that she takes 29.66 percent of all of Notre Dame's shots, 26 percent of ND's three-pointers, and 37 percent of ND's free throws. She is averaging 19.6 shots per game. If you just ignore her shooting and just look at her other game stats, she is the glue that keeps ND running. If UConn is successful in limiting her, and I do mean limiting, because I do not think it is possible to stop her, she is just that good, then ND will be in big trouble, and it will be a lop-sided victory. KK will have her hands full defensively, and she will have to be very careful not to get into foul trouble. Though I think Heckel is capable of picking up the defensive slack should Arnold get into early foul trouble. KK is averaging 7.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.9 steals, and is hitting .6 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Vanessa DeJesus, 5'8" - Graduate Guard - Vanessa is averaging 9.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.4 steals, and is hitting 1.9 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, is averaging 7.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and is hitting 1.3 three-pointers per game. Statistically, the advantage in this match-up should go to Vanessa; Ashlynn's individual defense couple with UConn's team defense are bound to frustrate Vanessa. Additionally, I am sure that Geno, knowing that ND is thin, is going to push the pace and Vanessa is going to be very tired in the second half of this game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH:

No contest here...Notre Dame is very thin in the bench with only Gisela Sanchez coming off the bench. Gisela averages 7.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and hits on .9 three-pointers. There is simply not enough firepower there to deal with UConn's deep and effective bench.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Niele Ivy, Pat Garrity, Carol Owens, Michaela Mabry, and Charel Allen are certainly a talented and experienced coaching staff, and they are certainly a worthy challenge to UConn's coaching staff. However, ND can only work with what they have and with so many players not eligible to play and what they lost last year, and the fact that they will be playing this game at Storrs, CT, there will be no luck of the Irish in this one.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Momemtum, talent, home court advantage, ND only dressing 6 players, ND being basically a one-dimensional team with strong dependence on Hildago and Prosper. Too much for ND to overcome. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 95
NOTRE DAME - 54
MOV - 41
 
As always, excellent analysis and I agree with your game score. Although I would like Uconn to exceed 100, just to rub it in and show ND WE ARE NO.1.It is a shame that ND is so decimated with injuries that the importance of this game is diminished. But Uconn had a fair share of this type of misfortune in the past few years and prevailed admirably. Let's see what ND is made of. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!
 
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azfan said:
Fingers crossed I make it to the game. My flight leaves in 2 hours and with a stop in Chicago this winter storm may be very disruptive. Can't wait to see the Huskies in person.
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I’ll be attending my very 1st UCONN home game tomorrow!
Been to many away games.

Flew in from South Bend (stop in Chicago) on Saturday.

Hope you make it and safe travels!

Go Huskies!!
 
Centerstream said:
I'm interested to see who guards Hildago. Along with KK, I think Azzi might have a go at it too because if memory serves, she spent time shutting down USC's top weapon, Jazzy Davidson. And of course there's Kayleigh.
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No disrepect to Kayleigh, but she (and much of US) is not quick enough to guard Hildago. Azzi had the basketball IQ and long arms to get the job done for short periods of time. KK and the full court press will get job done.

Interesting to look at the ND minutes played. As the Huskies compete for year end awards, you have to wonder if UConn's depth and low minutes for Strong and Fudd are factored in.
 
I think Hidalgo will be (in effect) double-teamed whenever she has the ball, with one person guarding her shot and the other guarding her drive. The purpose will be to force her to become a passer, which should work because: (a) that is not her forte; and (b) unlike in previous years, there are a lesser number of scoring targets for her to pass to. But I agree, she will probably still get about 20 to 25 points. If that is all she gets, UConn should win fairly easily.

One way that Notre Dame can try to beat that coverage is to have her move a lot without the ball, on backdoor cuts or give-and-go plays. If she gets 25 points, that is probably how she will get most of them (as well as at the free throw line).

(On edit): I think that UConn may well use a zone with three guards high, since ND's front court is hardly a major offensive threat. (If UConn shuts down Hidalgo and forces Prosper and Cowles to provide ND's offense, that will guarantee a UConn win by a wide margin.) I remember a game in the 2016 or 2017 time frame where that kind of defense was used very successfully against Ohio State's Kelsi Mitchell, with Kia, Saniya, and Gabby harassing her far from the basket and forcing desperate passes into the post.

I don't think it will be a 40-point game; a margin-of-victory of around 25 seems plausible to me.
 
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Centerstream said:
I'm interested to see who guards Hildago. Along with KK, I think Azzi might have a go at it too because if memory serves, she spent time shutting down USC's top weapon, Jazzy Davidson. And of course there's Kayleigh.
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UConn likes to rotate defenders so that the opponent can’t get into a groove against any one of them. Ash will probably spend time trying to contain Hidalgo as well. She and KK may try to trap her, something I’ve noticed the Huskies doing more recently
 
The analysis looks at individual matchups. The UConn defense will be more of a 5 vs 5 defense. Someone above described the kind of double teaming HH will get. One person can't be faster on the dribble than 2 or 3 switching and shifting defenders. UConn has shown over the past few weeks that their weakside help is really good. So targets for HH to pass to won't often be open enough to easily take advantage. The KK vs HH matchup was called in favor of ND. But it's more complex. KK on defense vs HH on offense will be more even than the matchup as a whole. And KK will be backed up by Ashlynn, Azzi, with Kayleigh ready to sub in.
 
I was reading on "the bench" that Walz implemented a strategy where the player Hidalgo was guarding handled the ball as little as possible to minimize the effect of Hidalgo's steals leading to quick and easy transition points. I wonder if Geno would try something similar.
 
JoePgh said:
I think Hidalgo will be (in effect) double-teamed whenever she has the ball, with one person guarding her shot and the other guarding her drive. The purpose will be to force her to become a passer, which should work because: (a) that is not her forte; and (b) unlike in previous years, there are a lesser number of scoring targets for her to pass to. But I agree, she will probably still get about 20 to 25 points. If that is all she gets, UConn should win fairly easily.
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I don't think it will be a 40-point game; a margin-of-victory of around 25 seems plausible to me.
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Doubling Hidalgo routinely could be dangerous -- the other ND starters shoot 43% from three.

I agree with you on the margin of victory. I've been thinking 20-30.
 
HopJim said:
No disrepect to Kayleigh, but she (and much of US) is not quick enough to guard Hildago. Azzi had the basketball IQ and long arms to get the job done for short periods of time. KK and the full court press will get job done.
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I agree but Kayleigh seems to recover quickly and, I expect, she will be getting help by trying to trap Hildago. I also think that Ashlynn is slower than KK but she is getting props in this thread.
My main point was that, IMHO, we may see Azzi as Hildago's primary defender but is going to get help from KK, K9 and possibly every other player on the court, ie full court pressure on Hildago if she is handling the ball.
And let's not forget the defensive help from Sarah and Blanca.
My post is in support of @cferraro04's one on one analysis.
 
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Notre Dame played seven players against UConn last year and only Hidalgo and Prosper remain. The others were Citron, Miles, King, Koval and Karlen. Not a bad group of five. Westbeld did not play.

The game was in December at Notre Dame. Azzi wasn't back playing yet and it was only Sarah's ninth collegiate game.

The Villanova game was a dry run with Bascoe playing the role of Hidalgo. KK started on her and help always arrived when Bascoe tried to drive to the basket. UConn will be double teaming like crazy out of the full court press until the game is out of reach. Hidalgo also likes to come off of high picks and they will be playing those high, no "drop coverage" on Monday night.

They will not be thinking about letting Hidalgo get hers and stopping everyone else. They will be on a mission to stop her and live with whatever open shots that creates for other players. Hidalgo has embarrassed UConn twice and they are not about to let that happen a third time.

I expect UConn to put this one away early but if not, I don't see how Notre Dame can hang for four quarters, playing five players 35+ minutes each against unrelenting pressure.
 
This does get interesting strategically...or you could play everyone else tight, try to deny HH the ball, even putting the taller Blanca on her to stop any incoming pass. ND will be all worn out by halftime. Any way you look at it, we have too much firepower.
 
Pharos said:
The analysis looks at individual matchups. The UConn defense will be more of a 5 vs 5 defense. Someone above described the kind of double teaming HH will get. One person can't be faster on the dribble than 2 or 3 switching and shifting defenders. UConn has shown over the past few weeks that their weakside help is really good. So targets for HH to pass to won't often be open enough to easily take advantage. The KK vs HH matchup was called in favor of ND. But it's more complex. KK on defense vs HH on offense will be more even than the matchup as a whole. And KK will be backed up by Ashlynn, Azzi, with Kayleigh ready to sub in.
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Recent KK play shows more offense from her. If that is the case in this game, she could work Hannah into the ground and be last player down the court and well-guarded. It's often not the defense on the opponent that wins but the effort that player has to put in on the other end that wares them out.
 
If you watched the ND-Michigan game, the Wolverines demolished the Irish by jumping into a double whenever HH started to make her move on offense. As a result she forced bad shots and turned it over a bunch. I don’t think UConn will play her quite as aggressively, but I expect the Huskies swarming defense to be all over HH, forcing her to make tough decisions under pressure all game long.
 
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Basingstoke said:
I think that the biggest problem in defending Hidalgo (much like attacking UCONN'S defense) is that you cannot adequately replicate what she does while doing your prep in practice.
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Yes, but the Irish can't replicate the Huskies defense and their defense has to be able to stop UConn, which I don't see happening.
 
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