Game analysis - Game 17 - UConn vs Georgetown (2nd Act)

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This is the 2nd match-up with Georgetown in less than one month. In the first match-up, UConn prevailed 79 to 44.

Paige played a huge role in that victory in which she scored 24 points went 11 for 16 from the floor and hit 2 for 3 on 3-pointers. Sarah had a monstrous double-double 17 and 14. UConn out-rebounded Georgetown 42 to 37. The starters except Paige only played about 23 minutes. Everybody who dressed scored. It was very early in the season and both teams have had some time to work things out and have gotten better.

It will be interesting to see where UConn makes up Paige's 24 points. Azzi did not play in the first match-up...so, hopefully, she will continue to make Geno's wish come true that she will step up and replace Paige's offense...she certainly did against Xavier. We saw Allie Ziebel suddenly find her three-point shot and hit five of them against Xavier. We can only hope that she continues to build on that game. Sarah scored 17 points and Ashlynn scored 9 in the first match-up. Additionally, the supporting cast of Cheli, Ziebel, KK, and Qadence all pitched in and got into the box score.

Our two bigs Ice and Jana combined went for 6 points and 8 rebounds. They need to step up at 6'5" and 6'3" I think they can do a better job of rebounding the basketball. Jayden McBride did not play in the first match-up and UConn was able to hold their best scorer Kelsey Ransom to only 7 points. We might see Kelsey try to have a bounce-back game in this one.

The first match-up was a home game at the XL Center for the Huskies...this one will be played in Washington D.C. UConns defense has improved since their first match-up so I expect that to have an impact on the Hoyas getting into their offensive sets and their ability to do what they want to do.

RPI / SOS:

Georgetown's RPI: 74
Georgetown's opponent's RPI: 5, 40, 44, 49, 54, 56, 61, 92, 98, 186, 199, 247, 254, 278
Georgetown's SOS: 28
Georgetown's opponent's SOS: 8,13, 26, 37, 50, 62, 97, 131, 157, 186, 197, 238, 321, 234

UConn's RPI: 5
UConn's opponent's RPI: 4, 14, 19, 31, 50, 60, 74, 76, 96, 105, 129, 132, 133, 137, 258, 275
UConn's SOS: 13
UConn's opponent's SOS: 5, 9, 16, 18, 22, 28, 29, 36, 39, 74, 172, 190, 239, 266, 330, 345

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - Redshirt Freshman - Center vs Ariel Jenkins, 6'3" - Senior - Center - Ariel played well against UConn in the first match-up scoring 12 points and pulling down 9 rebounds. She was slightly lower than her average of 12.7 points and 10.4 rebounds. Averaging a double/double is no easy feat. Containing Ariel may be a difficult task for our post-players. Jana is improving she is averaging 6''1 points and 5.0 rebounds. Ice will be called in off the bench and Jana's and Ice's combined contributions may be enough to cancel out Ariel's. In this match-up between I expect that Ariel will prevail. ADVANTAGE - GEORGETOWN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Victoria Rivers, 6'0" - Junior - Guard - Victoria averages 12.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.3 steals. She is an excellent three-point shooter and averages 2.8 per game. You cannot leave her open from three she will hurt you. Sarah is having a consistently good season and I expect her to step up in Paige's absence and do even better. Sarah is averaging 17.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.2 blocks. She also shoots the three-pointer well averaging 2 per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Kelsey Ransom, 5'10" - Graduate - Guard - Kelsey Ransom is Georgetown's spark plug. She is their engine. Last game UConn was able to contain her and held her to only 7 points. I would be very surprised to see that happen again. Kelsey averages 20.6 points, 6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. Kelsey also commits a lot of turnovers. She averages 4.33 turnovers per game. I would expect that UConn's defense is aware of Kelsey's turnover issues and will probably keep a lot of pressure on her. Look for KK to take some of the defensive responsibility on Kelsey. Azzi sure gave us a glimpse of what she is capable of in the last game with Xavier. Let's hope she continues to build on what she did in the last game. Currently, .Azzi is averaging 9.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers per game. If Azzi's 23 points indicate what we could expect to see going forward then this match-up promises to be very exciting. However, I think it is a little premature to expect Azzi to score in the 20s every game consistently. ADVANTAGE - GEORGETOWN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Sophomore - Guard vs Khadee Hession, 5'9" - Freshman - Guard - Kadie averages 5.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals per game. She only scored 4 points in the first outing. Ashlynn averages 8.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn scored nine points in the first outing. I think Ashlynn's defense, her pull-up jumper, and her overall hustle play will cause her to prevail in this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jaeda Wilson, 5'8" - Freshman - Guard - Jaeda averages 4.9 points and 1.3 rebounds per game. She did score 10 points against UConn in the first outing. Kaitlyn does need to be a little more offense-minded and does need to be more consistent in her shooting. She is averaging 5.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals. With regards to how Kaitlyn overall impacts the game given her playmaking, defense, etc. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UCONN will bring 18.6 points and 11.9 rebounds off the bench. They will also be able to sustain the defensive pressure on Georgetown. Georgetown will bring 15.0 points and 12.6 rebounds off the bench. I believe there is a lot more potential for impacting the game coming off of UConn's bench than Georgetown's. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Georgetown has the homecourt advantage, we are playing without Paige, they are a somewhat scrappy team, and their star way underperformed in the first meeting of these two teams. I think these things add up to: ADVANTAGE - GEORGETOWN

COACHING:

No one is better than Geno and Chris at getting a team ready when they are missing key players. UConn has had a lot of practice playing without its stars in recent years. The coaching staff is more experienced than Georgetown's. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 74
GEORGETOWN - 59
MOV - 15

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis! Thanks again, Sensei. This is so helpful.

I disagree about the advantage you concede to Ransom over Fudd. I will never bet against Azzi. When she’s on her game, which we’ve only seen in brief stretches between injuries, she can play at a NPoY level. If I were to guess, we are about to see the resurgence of that Azzi. Her remarks after the last game were very encouraging — for her, it’s not about some mysterious mojo, or even about confidence. It’s just about getting back into game shape and working with her teammates. I think she showed how game ready she is. I have always liked Ransom’s game, her feistiness, but she has never played at the same level as Azzi.

I think you are very right to expect a serious threat from Ariel Jenkins. This will be a challenge for Jana/Ice and they need challenges. It is possible she will outplay them. This probably wouldn’t be enough to get an upset. But it would be a missed opportunity for Jana especially whose defense and boxing out needs to take the next step. A double-double from Jana against Ariel would be an early landmark in her UConn career.

I think you’re also right to expect KK to spend some time guarding Kelsey. I suspect she’ll be switching and smothering all the Georgetown guards. This is a game for the entire team, not just KK, to flex their defensive muscles. I have a feeling the team will take it up another notch. Morgan in particular could be primed for a breakout game on defense, and maybe on offense too. If she can do to their perimeter players what Aubrey routinely has done, we may finally get to see why Morgan was recruited.

I get why you think this will be closer than the previous 35 pt beatdown. McDonough can be a tough place to play. But I have a feeling — based on very little evidence — that Jana, Morgan and Allie are primed for a breakout. And I don’t think Azzi and Sarah and Ash will miss a beat. My prediction is for a similar result as last time.

 

[Centerstream]

As demonstrated in the Xavier game, Morgan might be considered an additional player assigned to defend in the post. She seemed to have done that when both Jana and Ice were sitting. And she did it well.

 

[Henry]

I don't see this as a homecourt advantage for Georgetown. The game is a sell-out and it's not because of Georgetown. Georgetown moves this game to the arena the Mystics play in because they know UConn draws fans. Having been to this game last yr (and going again tomorrow), I can report that most of the crowd was rooting for UConn.

 

[HuskyNan]

I don't see this as a homecourt advantage for Georgetown. The game is a sell-out and it's not because of Georgetown. Georgetown moves this game to the arena the Mystics play in because they know UConn draws fans. Having been to this game last yr (and going again tomorrow), I can report that most of the crowd was rooting for UConn.

This year, there will be friends and family of Azzi (Arlington VA) and Qadence (Forestville MD). Next year, there will be Qadence and Kelis (Baltimore MD).

 

[Ozimoto]

Georgetown has been tough at this venue the past several seasons. They are scrappy and physical so hopefully the referees keep the game under control.

 

[Shorty Dee]

This game has been moved to Sports and Entertainment Arena. It will be an UConn advantage. My family and I will be in attendance for this game, as we were last year. You will be able to hear the cheers of the Huskies fans over the Hoyas fans. The game is a sold out event, but with the weather..I don't know if all the seats will be filled. Last year the game was sold out, but there were a lot of empty seats.

 

[Bone Dog]

I don't see this as a homecourt advantage for Georgetown. The game is a sell-out and it's not because of Georgetown. Georgetown moves this game to the arena the Mystics play in because they know UConn draws fans. Having been to this game last yr (and going again tomorrow), I can report that most of the crowd was rooting for UConn.

Is the game being played at the Entertainment Center? I thought it was at McDonough. That changes things a bit.

 

[Henry]

It's at Entertainment and Sports Arena, not McDonogh. Georgetown plays 1, maybe 2 games, a year there. They only move there when they know they'll be able to sell enough tickets for more than they usually charge.

 

[Huskee11]

In the 2020-2021 season, Ransom had 13 and 15 point scoring games against UConn.

Since then, she has only hit double figures once (12) in seven games against UConn. In the last six games, 31 total turnovers including 9 in the last game.

So appreciate the analysis, excellent as always, but I will go with Azzi over Ransom all day. And I think it is absolutely reasonable to expect Azzi to score 20+ on Saturday. She was headed towards 30+ before Geno pulled her the other night. She was moving differently and that won’t change.

 

[Next 12]

Even without Paige playing, the way Uconn is playing now, Georgetown is in for a hard afternoon. Uconn now has 5 legitimate scorers and more coming in every game.As I have said many times, I do not believe there is a BE team that will beat Uconn. Uconn's defense is stifling and their quickness and stamina are the engine that drives them We are step by step moving toward that Holy Grail, the NC No 12.l This team is the genesis of Uconn's leap back into " bad for basketball "and I am loving it. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!

 

[JellyBean]

Solid analysis as always. To me, the team looked really sharp against Xavier. They had a sense of urgency out there. I believe the team will perform in the same fashion against Georgetown on Saturday.

 

[YKCornelius]

I believe this is a VERY crucial game for a Georgetown coaching staff that is trying to make some headway in the Big East and in the world of WCBB. The greater DC area is filled with HS talent and outside of Maryland and UVA who get first dibs on the best talent staying home, Georgetown wants to remain in the front of the next tier competing for the 3 and 4 star level recruits. Playing tough against a heavy favorite UConn team is paramount to that goal.

I think if the refs decide to let the two teams play, then this could be a tough game. I'm thinking Georgetown is going to come out hard and aggressive. I expect them to be as physical as they can possibly be. Jack the Bulldog versus Jonathan the Huskie.

Although I think UConn will win by double digits, I think there are a lot of factors that will come into play keeping this from being a blow-out. I think I agree with cferarro04 that the MOV will be in the teens.

 

[DallasDomer]

Another double digit quadrant 4 win for UConn over a Big East team. I'm not sure if the BE will ever build back into the league it used to be.

 

[Tonyc]

Well I dont think we need Paige in this game and it might be best to keep her rested. The same knee that was injured and kept her out for so long, was slightly reinjured so keeping her out, I would hope would be no risk moving forward.

We

 

[Bone Dog]

Well I dont think we need Paige in this game and it might be best to keep her rested. The same knee that was injured and kept her out for so long, was slightly reinjured so keeping her out, I would hope would be no risk moving forward.

Every game she misses now makes it that much harder for Paige to edge Phee out of 3rd place on the all-time scoring list.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Every game she misses now makes it that much harder for Paige to edge Phee out of 3rd place on the all-time scoring list.

I think the goals for Paige is undefeated in the Conference, win BE Tourney, and NC #12. Everything else is just icing on the Championship cake....

 

[Bone Dog]

I think the goals for Paige is undefeated in the Conference, win BE Tourney, and NC #12. Everything else is just icing on the Championship cake....

Yes, this means nothing to Paige, I’m sure. But to her fans it might mean something.