Game Analysis and Comments - UCLA vs UCONN (Game 5)

[Big Daddy]

COMMENTS:

Well here we go...playing the #2 ranked UCLA. Playing a game like this so early in the season is risky in that some teams reach mid-season form earlier than others. UCLA is an offensive juggernaut averaging 93 points per game. However, upon further dissection, UCLA has played Bellarmine - 309 RPI / 211 SOS; UC Riverside - 335 RPI / 242 SOS; Purdue - 54 RPI / 47 SOS and Princeton - 24 RPI / 58 SOS. When we compare that with UConn's RPI / SOS we get Dayton 285 RPI / 152 SOS; Minnesota 195 RPI / 83 SOS; North Carolina State 21 RPI / 7 SOS; Maryland 6 RPI / 2 SOS. Overall UCLA's RPI / SOS are 15 / 12 while UConn's is 5 / 8.

UCLA has a tall frontcourt with talented bigs and a very talented backcourt with quick guards. This is a difficult team to play...even though we will be playing on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. This marque match-up pits #8 UConn against #2 UCLA. A lot could go wrong in this game and in order to win we will need a lot to go right.

More than likely UCLA will start, Kiki Rice, a 5'11" sophomore guard (12.3 points, 6.3 Assists); Londyan Jones, a 5'4" sophomore guard (14 points, 3.5 three-pointers per game); Charisma Osborne, 5'9" graduate guard (17.3 points, 4.8 Assists, 3.5 three-pointers per game); Gabriella Jacquez, a 6'0" sophomore forward (16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds); and a 6'7" sophomore center (19.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.8 Assists). These starters collectively account for 79.9 points and 30.9 rebounds per game. Their bench collectively accounts for 25.3 points and 24.8 rebounds per game.

UConn's starters assuming Azzi does not play account for 51.3 points and 24.6 rebounds per game. UConn's bench accounts for 23.9 points and 9 rebounds per game. It is obvious from the collective stats that UConn is short on points and short on rebounds. So, one of two things or both simultaneously has to happen...either UConn must manufacture more points...which goes to Tonyc's point in the thread he started saying that players need to take more shots or UConn's defense must be so smothering and so oppressive that we take UCLA out of their game or preferably UConn does both. I know that Paige will step up or this game...she loves the big stage...the question I have is will there be others who will step up and make a difference in this game? On paper UConn does not win this game...it will come down to intangibles, will to win, more aggressive offensive play, strong, oppressive defense, and hopefully an off-game for UCLA players. UCLA is enjoying their highest ranking at #2... it will be a true test to see where UConn is at in their season and what they will need to do in order to improve to become a national contender in March/April.

MATCH-UPS

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" Senior Forward vs Lauren Betts 6'7" Sophomore Center

This is going to be a tough match-up for Aaliyah Edwards as she will be giving up 4 inches to Lauren Betts. I think you may see some zone played here as Geno will look to protect Aaliyah from getting into foul trouble and will need some weak-side help if they expect to contain Betts in the paint...I suspect part of the strategy here will be to try and push Lauren away from the basket and try to force her to take mid-range jumpers. Lauren's stats are what you would expect from a good big. 19.5 points and 10.8 rebounds are impressive. I do worry that Aaliyah may get into foul trouble...we are not deep in the post. On the other hand, it sure would be nice if we could get Lauren into foul trouble but that is unlikely as Lauren has only committed a total of 3 fouls in 4 games. Aliyah's stats are also laudable 18.0 points and 7.0 rebounds however, will Lauren's size present a problem for Aaliyah...hopefully Aaliyah can draw Lauren outside away from the basket and if Aaliyah can hit some foul line jumpers and mid-range shots this match-up could be a draw...however, playing the odds I have to call this one: ADVANTAGE - UCLA

Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Graduate Guard / Forward vs Gabriella Jacque 6'0" Sophomore Forward

Gabriella is having a great year so far...she is averaging 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game...she also contributes with assists, steals, and blocked shots (1.5; 1.3; and 1.25 per game). Aubrey Griffin may be the best suited to playing Gabriella as Aubrey's size and athleticism may be able to slow Gabriella down. Aubrey for whatever reason hasn't rounded up to form yet as she is only averaging 6.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. She also contributes with assists, steals, and blocks (1.3; 1.0; 1.5 per game). If you take away the 10 points extra that Gabriella averages per game over Aubrey you technically have the same player. If Aubrey's defense can keep Gabriella Jacque under her average then I would put this position at: ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ducharme 6'2" Junior Guard vs Charisma Osborne 5'9" Graduate Guard

Caroline Ducharme so far this season is a mystery. You just don't know what you are going to get. In this potential match-up, Caroline would enjoy a 5-inch height advantage. Of course, that could be good and that could be bad depending on how well Caroline defends against Charisma. Charisma has been very productive this year averaging 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds while also contributing 4.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 3.5 three-pointers per game. Caroline is not yet playing up to form and is in fact rather anemic with regards to game stats. So, I think she may get the start but Geno will go to the bench quickly and often in order to keep giving Charisma different looks in an effort to slow her down. This is another reason why I think we are going to see Geno use a lot of zone in this game. Using Q or KK will help in the man-to-man scheme of things but if Charisma's game statistics hold it will be challenging for UConn. Based on this match-up alone I have to go with: ADVANTAGE - UCLA

Paige Bueckers 6'0" RS Junior Guard vs Kiki Rice 5'11" Sophomore Guard

I have no doubt that we will see a superb game from Paige in this one...she loves the big stage and she will come to play. Paige is averaging 17.8 points and 5.8 rebounds to go with 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals. KiKi is a great player and a great pass-first guard her game stats are not that bad with 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game..she isn't in love with the three but she can make them. She will have her hands full with defending Paige as will Paige defending KiKi. However, I will go with: ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11 Senior Guard vs Londyan Jones 5'4" Sophomore Guard

Nika needs a statement game and I believe this is her opportunity to do so providing she can stay out of foul trouble. Lately, she hasn't been able to do that. Nika will have to play Londyan Jones closely. Londyan likes shooting 3s and she is currently making 3.5 per game. She is a scoring threat but not outside the range of NIka...if Nika isn't shy and takes the shots that are there for her she can have a decent night with regards to scoring. Londyan averages 14 points per game, she will contribute assists and rebounds (2.0 and 2.3 per game). I believe that Nika will impact the game with assists and defensively will make it a tough night for Londyan. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UCLA has a decent bench that can bring into the game 25.3 points and 17.5 rebounds. UConn's bench can bring into the game 23.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. So far this season UConn 3:1 has beaten teams with a RPI of 6, 195 and 285 and has faced teams with a Strength of Schedule (SOS) of 2, 83 and 152 while UCLA is 4:0 and has beaten teams with the following RPI rankings: 24, 54, 309 and 335 and has faced teams with a SOS of 47, 58, 211, 242. UCLA's RPI is 15 and its SOS is 12 while UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 8. I am not sure if UConn's superior schedule will help them this early in the season and for that reason I will go with: ADVANTAGE - UCLA

COACHING

I think UCLA has a great coaching staff but, UConn's coaching staff is much more seasoned and experienced. Cori Close is in her 12th season with UCLA; she is 233 - 124, Shannon LaBeauf is in her 12 season and handles most of the recruiting. Geno, Chris, Jamelle, and Tonya bring an abundance of experience with both Jamelle and Tonya having been head coaches of Division I basketball teams. The addition of Ben Kantor makes this probably the best coaching staff in the country. This was an easy call to make: ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court...no advantage there...UConn's number three player on the IR, Strength of Schedule, and RPI at this stage of the season is not really a factor. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE

UCONN - 83
UCLA - 78

Thank you so much for this analysis. Much appreciated.

 

[Tonyc]

Some questions.

Will Geno shorten the bench?
Is Azzi ready or does she sit? I think she plays
What will UConn do to get UCLA in foul trouble?
How will UCLA handle UConns pressure defense?
Will this be a low scoring game say 70 or less points per team? Typically big games like this scoring is 60's
Will we get scoring from everybody else on a consistent basis?
UCLA struggled against Princeton and Carla Berube coaches Princeton. Im sure Geno has talked to Carla.

This game will tell us alot about UConn. UConn is still not healthy and I thought they were in better health, I thought Azzi and Caroline were ready to go and it appears theyre not. UCLA doesnt scare me however it concerns me knowing that UConn isnt 100% yet.

 

[pk1234]

Good stuff, but Betts is not better than Edwards.

 

[JellyBean]

Definitely will be an interesting game. I can't wait.

 

[cohenzone]

Don’t know how this will come out, but it’s a little odd for me. I’m on a visit from CT to my son and family in LA a 10-15 minute or so walk to the heart of the UCLA campus. And I will be flying home basically at tip off time, bad internet on board . So I am a bit up in the air over the outcome and rely on you all to predict the outcome, but a great scouting report. Go Huskies.

 

[VA Huskie]

@cferraro04 - You do such a great job with your analysis and commentary. I don't always agree with everything, but I truly appreciate the complete mind stimulation. So thanks again.

​

Ditto what Gordo said.

 

[Notyetready]

Betts is big but slow. Princeton triple teamed her down low and that worked sometimes. Aaliyah is 4" shorter but strong and quick and fast. If UConn can deny Betts the ball by fronting her effectively, and wear her down, she will not be a major factor in the game. The rest of their team does not match up well with UConn. Their vulnerability is turnovers. If UConn can keep their own turnovers to 12 or less and pressure the ball on defense, they should have a safe margin of victory. If Samuels is on her shooting game, or Ice has a breakout game, down goes the UCLA balloon. We have a deep bench in comparison to UCLA. Geno has a lot to work with. The players just need to execute his game plan.

 

[Notyetready]

I like this commentator's analysis. He has a realistic approach. You just have to get past the "alcoholic dad" analogy.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Team needs to start strong and play the full 40 minutes with intensity.
Only my opinion…this team isn’t one to play well from behind. If the score remains close I like UCONN chances. A nail biter is fun every once in a while…as long as UCONN comes out with a WIN.

 

[Huskee11]

I think it all turns on whether or not we can stay in front of their guards defensively. If we can make them uncomfortable, we will be in good shape. If they can roam free and penetrate, not so much.

KK, Q and Ashlynn will have to be a part of that effort. Big test.

Emily Bessoir of UCLA played the first game off the bench but has been out ever since. Not sure what her status is.

I`m glad our coaching staff has the Princeton game film to work with. That will help.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I think it all turns on whether or not we can stay in front of their guards defensively. If we can make them uncomfortable, we will be in good shape. If they can roam free and penetrate, not so much.

KK, Q and Ashlynn will have to be a part of that effort. Big test.

Emily Bessoir of UCLA played the first game off the bench but has been out ever since. Not sure what her status is.

She's out for the season with a knee injury. Hurt it playing for her national team.

 

[PhillyCoach]

UCLA played 3 easy teams and rolled them. The Princeton game (top 30 team) had some interesting tidbits. The game was played in LA.
Final score 77-74 and there were 10 lead changes in the game.
Princeton outscored UCLA in the 2nd Quarter 27 to 15.
UCLA had 16 TO & 11 assists. Princeton had 9 TO and 7 assists.
UCLA 2 steals - Princeton 6 steals.
UCLA 3 blocks - Princeton 2 blocks.
UCLA shot 22% from the 3 pt line.
UCLA - 4 of their top 6 players are quick guards.
UCLA had a mostly 6 player rotation -- with 3 others getting single digit minutes.
Betts & Osbourne are the big scorers. They both had 20+ and played 35+ minutes.
IMHO - If UConn shooters show up then they can win.

 

[Phil]

Is Dugalic back (or will she be back by Friday)?

 

[and one]

I think it all turns on whether or not we can stay in front of their guards defensively. If we can make them uncomfortable, we will be in good shape. If they can roam free and penetrate, not so much.

KK, Q and Ashlynn will have to be a part of that effort. Big test.

Emily Bessoir of UCLA played the first game off the bench but has been out ever since. Not sure what her status is.

I`m glad our coaching staff has the Princeton game film to work with. That will help.

Prediction: KK will see plenty of time, even if Azzi plays. Q and Ash will get at least 10 minutes each. I'm always happy to see all three play and don't see any drop off in talent when they are. Ok, if Q subs for Paige there might be a teeny drop off but on the whole all three can hold their own. KK playing as well as she does, in a way unlike the other guards do, is a real bonus for this team. The more I see of Ash the more I like her game - the Yang to KK's Yin. Q looks good and just may turn into a big time scorer before it is all over.

 

[Cornell Lt]

Win on the boards = win the game. Plain and simple

 

[Audi1954]

Question. I’m seeing several people mention across the board, if Azzi plays. Is that really an option? Did I miss something?

 

[jake0414]

Is Dugalic back (or will she be back by Friday)?

Angela Dugalic returned last week from the Europe where she played for the Serbian Senior Women's team. She started against Princeton. played 27 minutes, scored 5 points, collected 4 rebounds and had 2 assists. She didn't seem sharp against the Tigers, missing a layup and missing all three 3-pt attempts.

 

[Reypl21]

Betts is big but slow. Princeton triple teamed her down low and that worked sometimes. Aaliyah is 4" shorter but strong and quick and fast. If UConn can deny Betts the ball by fronting her effectively, and wear her down, she will not be a major factor in the game. The rest of their team does not match up well with UConn. Their vulnerability is turnovers. If UConn can keep their own turnovers to 12 or less and pressure the ball on defense, they should have a safe margin of victory. If Samuels is on her shooting game, or Ice has a breakout game, down goes the UCLA balloon. We have a deep bench in comparison to UCLA. Geno has a lot to work with. The players just need to execute his game plan.

Wasn't Betts perfect from the field against Princeton? I don't think what they did can be used as a good example to stop Betts. I don't see how fronting her will be effective to take her out of the game. That sounds like easy layups by throwing it over the top. Stop her from getting deep position and throw a double and let the guards beat you.

I think Betts will be a problem for UConn. Edwards should get her points as well. If those two cancel each other out that would be a plus for UConn.

 

[Cuango]

I think this game will turn on whether we can bring the same defensive intensity we brought to the NC State game. I have a feeling this may be the game that Caroline breaks out. Betts is a concern but if Geno can come up with some kind of effective strategy to keep her from going off, I think we will win this game handily.
I’d certainly feel better with Azzi and Yanna available but I think we can get it done anyway. I must say, it’s very nice to go into games with a realistic expectation that our bench can actually affect the game in a positive way. Here’s hoping for a big win on Friday!

I just realized I said NC State! How embarrassing! I meant Maryland!

 

[HopJim]

Betts is big but slow. Princeton triple teamed her down low and that worked sometimes. Aaliyah is 4" shorter but strong and quick and fast. If UConn can deny Betts the ball by fronting her effectively, and wear her down, she will not be a major factor in the game. The rest of their team does not match up well with UConn. Their vulnerability is turnovers. If UConn can keep their own turnovers to 12 or less and pressure the ball on defense, they should have a safe margin of victory. If Samuels is on her shooting game, or Ice has a breakout game, down goes the UCLA balloon. We have a deep bench in comparison to UCLA. Geno has a lot to work with. The players just need to execute his game plan.

Good assessment and would add, while Betts has spots that she likes to shot from, both Edwards and Ice have the strength to deny her position. She is also good at getting passes down low from guards that are double teamed. Execution without fouling and rotating to the open big are critical.

 

[Tonyc]

I like UConns chances in this game. The biggest reason is UConn held their last two opponents to under 50pts.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I think Geno needs to put Ice on Betts for much of the game to give Aaliyah some relief and keep her out of foul trouble. Is she ready for that? Who knows, but these are the kind of match-ups where we need production from more bigs. We don't have time to bring her along slowly.

If this was a game you were likely to win without Azzi, and avoiding using another big, then maybe you go conservative with the more experienced known quantities. but this is a game we need to win, not avoid losing.

In a similar vein Geno might need to make a bold in game move regarding Caroline. If it looks like we are getting this year's or last year's version of Caroline early he could give her a quick hook depending on what was most needed. It could be any of the three freshmen. KK by the way might be a good defensive match-up against Jones.

We don't want to have to rely on freshmen when they might be rushed into their role, but with Azzi, Ayanna and Jana unavailable we don't have another big option beyond Ice and we don't know what we have or will have with Caroline. In the former case, Ice has not yet earned big minutes but we are small and facing a very good big. In Caroline's case if she is good no problem, but so far she hasn't been and the other freshmen have earned a chance based on their play. Hoping for the best but I think Caroline should be on a pretty short leash so to speak.

We'll have a better understanding after this game of whether Paige today is the Paige of Old, or whether, after two major knee injuries, Paige is not, and never will be again, the Paige of Old.

 

[Urshurak]

Analysis is spot on. I think defensively, UConn can limit their points. They still need to do a better job of chasing opponents from the 3 point shot. Teams seem to light it up against UConn.

I’m worried about offense. It was MIA against MN and this is a whole different movie with UCLA. Paige can’t do it all. That being said, offensive rebounds have to get a whole lot better to win this.

Unfortunately, too soon to fix all this IMHO, but this game will be good for UConn.

UCLA 74, UConn 70

 

[wingsfan055]

We'll have a better understanding after this game of whether Paige today is the Paige of Old, or whether, after two major knee injuries, Paige is not, and never will be again, the Paige of Old.

Could take a year or more to get back to the "Paige of Old"..Its not a switch she can immediately turn on.