COMMENTS:
Well here we go...playing the #2 ranked UCLA. Playing a game like this so early in the season is risky in that some teams reach mid-season form earlier than others. UCLA is an offensive juggernaut averaging 93 points per game. However, upon further dissection, UCLA has played Bellarmine - 309 RPI / 211 SOS; UC Riverside - 335 RPI / 242 SOS; Purdue - 54 RPI / 47 SOS and Princeton - 24 RPI / 58 SOS. When we compare that with UConn's RPI / SOS we get Dayton 285 RPI / 152 SOS; Minnesota 195 RPI / 83 SOS; North Carolina State 21 RPI / 7 SOS; Maryland 6 RPI / 2 SOS. Overall UCLA's RPI / SOS are 15 / 12 while UConn's is 5 / 8.
UCLA has a tall frontcourt with talented bigs and a very talented backcourt with quick guards. This is a difficult team to play...even though we will be playing on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. This marque match-up pits #8 UConn against #2 UCLA. A lot could go wrong in this game and in order to win we will need a lot to go right.
More than likely UCLA will start, Kiki Rice, a 5'11" sophomore guard (12.3 points, 6.3 Assists); Londyan Jones, a 5'4" sophomore guard (14 points, 3.5 three-pointers per game); Charisma Osborne, 5'9" graduate guard (17.3 points, 4.8 Assists, 3.5 three-pointers per game); Gabriella Jacquez, a 6'0" sophomore forward (16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds); and a 6'7" sophomore center (19.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.8 Assists). These starters collectively account for 79.9 points and 30.9 rebounds per game. Their bench collectively accounts for 25.3 points and 24.8 rebounds per game.
UConn's starters assuming Azzi does not play account for 51.3 points and 24.6 rebounds per game. UConn's bench accounts for 23.9 points and 9 rebounds per game. It is obvious from the collective stats that UConn is short on points and short on rebounds. So, one of two things or both simultaneously has to happen...either UConn must manufacture more points...which goes to Tonyc's point in the thread he started saying that players need to take more shots or UConn's defense must be so smothering and so oppressive that we take UCLA out of their game or preferably UConn does both. I know that Paige will step up or this game...she loves the big stage...the question I have is will there be others who will step up and make a difference in this game? On paper UConn does not win this game...it will come down to intangibles, will to win, more aggressive offensive play, strong, oppressive defense, and hopefully an off-game for UCLA players. UCLA is enjoying their highest ranking at #2... it will be a true test to see where UConn is at in their season and what they will need to do in order to improve to become a national contender in March/April.
MATCH-UPS
Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" Senior Forward vs Lauren Betts 6'7" Sophomore Center
This is going to be a tough match-up for Aaliyah Edwards as she will be giving up 4 inches to Lauren Betts. I think you may see some zone played here as Geno will look to protect Aaliyah from getting into foul trouble and will need some weak-side help if they expect to contain Betts in the paint...I suspect part of the strategy here will be to try and push Lauren away from the basket and try to force her to take mid-range jumpers. Lauren's stats are what you would expect from a good big. 19.5 points and 10.8 rebounds are impressive. I do worry that Aaliyah may get into foul trouble...we are not deep in the post. On the other hand, it sure would be nice if we could get Lauren into foul trouble but that is unlikely as Lauren has only committed a total of 3 fouls in 4 games. Aliyah's stats are also laudable 18.0 points and 7.0 rebounds however, will Lauren's size present a problem for Aaliyah...hopefully Aaliyah can draw Lauren outside away from the basket and if Aaliyah can hit some foul line jumpers and mid-range shots this match-up could be a draw...however, playing the odds I have to call this one: ADVANTAGE - UCLA
Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Graduate Guard / Forward vs Gabriella Jacque 6'0" Sophomore Forward
Gabriella is having a great year so far...she is averaging 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game...she also contributes with assists, steals, and blocked shots (1.5; 1.3; and 1.25 per game). Aubrey Griffin may be the best suited to playing Gabriella as Aubrey's size and athleticism may be able to slow Gabriella down. Aubrey for whatever reason hasn't rounded up to form yet as she is only averaging 6.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. She also contributes with assists, steals, and blocks (1.3; 1.0; 1.5 per game). If you take away the 10 points extra that Gabriella averages per game over Aubrey you technically have the same player. If Aubrey's defense can keep Gabriella Jacque under her average then I would put this position at: ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Ducharme 6'2" Junior Guard vs Charisma Osborne 5'9" Graduate Guard
Caroline Ducharme so far this season is a mystery. You just don't know what you are going to get. In this potential match-up, Caroline would enjoy a 5-inch height advantage. Of course, that could be good and that could be bad depending on how well Caroline defends against Charisma. Charisma has been very productive this year averaging 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds while also contributing 4.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 3.5 three-pointers per game. Caroline is not yet playing up to form and is in fact rather anemic with regards to game stats. So, I think she may get the start but Geno will go to the bench quickly and often in order to keep giving Charisma different looks in an effort to slow her down. This is another reason why I think we are going to see Geno use a lot of zone in this game. Using Q or KK will help in the man-to-man scheme of things but if Charisma's game statistics hold it will be challenging for UConn. Based on this match-up alone I have to go with: ADVANTAGE - UCLA
Paige Bueckers 6'0" RS Junior Guard vs Kiki Rice 5'11" Sophomore Guard
I have no doubt that we will see a superb game from Paige in this one...she loves the big stage and she will come to play. Paige is averaging 17.8 points and 5.8 rebounds to go with 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals. KiKi is a great player and a great pass-first guard her game stats are not that bad with 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game..she isn't in love with the three but she can make them. She will have her hands full with defending Paige as will Paige defending KiKi. However, I will go with: ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl 5'11 Senior Guard vs Londyan Jones 5'4" Sophomore Guard
Nika needs a statement game and I believe this is her opportunity to do so providing she can stay out of foul trouble. Lately, she hasn't been able to do that. Nika will have to play Londyan Jones closely. Londyan likes shooting 3s and she is currently making 3.5 per game. She is a scoring threat but not outside the range of NIka...if Nika isn't shy and takes the shots that are there for her she can have a decent night with regards to scoring. Londyan averages 14 points per game, she will contribute assists and rebounds (2.0 and 2.3 per game). I believe that Nika will impact the game with assists and defensively will make it a tough night for Londyan. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
BENCH
UCLA has a decent bench that can bring into the game 25.3 points and 17.5 rebounds. UConn's bench can bring into the game 23.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. So far this season UConn 3:1 has beaten teams with a RPI of 6, 195 and 285 and has faced teams with a Strength of Schedule (SOS) of 2, 83 and 152 while UCLA is 4:0 and has beaten teams with the following RPI rankings: 24, 54, 309 and 335 and has faced teams with a SOS of 47, 58, 211, 242. UCLA's RPI is 15 and its SOS is 12 while UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 8. I am not sure if UConn's superior schedule will help them this early in the season and for that reason I will go with: ADVANTAGE - UCLA
COACHING
I think UCLA has a great coaching staff but, UConn's coaching staff is much more seasoned and experienced. Cori Close is in her 12th season with UCLA; she is 233 - 124, Shannon LaBeauf is in her 12 season and handles most of the recruiting. Geno, Chris, Jamelle, and Tonya bring an abundance of experience with both Jamelle and Tonya having been head coaches of Division I basketball teams. The addition of Ben Kantor makes this probably the best coaching staff in the country. This was an easy call to make: ADVANTAGE - UCONN
INTANGIBLES
Neutral court...no advantage there...UConn's number three player on the IR, Strength of Schedule, and RPI at this stage of the season is not really a factor. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
SCORE
UCONN - 83
UCLA - 78