Free throws

[geneticrex]

Again, losses can be blamed on many factors, and any one you choose to pin the FTs on I can just as easily point to dumb passes or missed assignments or Geno's hair gel.

Last year UConn had likely the worst FT shooting game ever against the Irish with a 46.7% effort, but I don't think that was much on their minds while they were cutting down the NC nets. In both of the years before that they shot 82% in losses to ND and in neither of those two years of losing 3 of 4 to ND did they shoot under 67%. As said, other factors weighed far more heavily, including the fact that they took only 11 FTAs in those two 82% FT shooting losses.

The good thing is that three of the four times the Huskies won the NC in the previous 6 years, the FT% improved over the course of the season by at least a modest amount. Hard to say about 2009-10 because the FT shooting that year was a crazy roller coaster all year long that culminated in a 20-41 effort in the FF. In fact, UConn has shot a combined 51% at the FT line in its last three NCs, and still only 57% if you throw in 2008-09. Maybe some big game pressure showing there, but FT% did not cost them any NC games.

I get it Dobbster, you don't believe missed free throws are a big deal.

I do.

I don't care if you change your mind and I'm sure you don't care if I change mine.

 

[EricSD]

I looked up a few players -

Tiff Hayes went from 75 to 80%
Maya Moore went from 74 to 84%
Bria Hartley went from 73 to 69%
Stef Dolson went from 81 to 79%

Safe to say it's possible to see the FT% increase, but also possible to see it decrease. By the way Dee's FT% went down over the course of her career too.

 

[geneticrex]

Again, losses can be blamed on many factors, and any one you choose to pin the FTs on I can just as easily point to dumb passes or missed assignments or Geno's hair gel.

The team that has put more points on the scoreboard has won every basketball game ever played. Dumb passes and/or missed assignments may, or may not equate to points on the scoreboard. Free throws lead directly to points on the scoreboard. They are unlike field goal percentage as they are not defended. A missed free throw has a direct and immediate consequence on the scoreboard.

I don't think Doug Bruno, in his post game press conference will sight hair gel, Geno's, or anyone else's as factors in tonight's heartbreaking loss to ND.

Bottom line: Want to win close games more often than not??? Make your free throws.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I get it Dobbster, you don't believe missed free throws are a big deal.

I do.

I don't care if you change your mind and I'm sure you don't care if I change mine.

No big deal, and since missing a certain amount of FTs on the year is inevitable just as losing 50 games in the MLB is, I'm not going to fret over it that much though I understand you will be losing some follicles over it. And all those who want to weep over UConn's terrible FT shooting in NC games will naturally understand if I pay more attention to the stats that really matter. And if there are those who say that the minimally acceptable FT% is one that only 7% of teams achieve in the best of years, I will say it is a noble goal but maybe getting back in touch with reality can also be a useful goal.

And bottom line, if you want to win games, score more baskets. I know you worship your FTs, but the Huskies did win some games last year where the other team scored more points at the charity stripe, including yes that NC game. Feel free not to be concerned about the dumb passes that prevent the buckets from being scored or any of the other integral parts of a smoothly running championship team since I'm sure that gnashing the molars down to the gums over missed freebies is the best way to get to #10.

 

[Huskies Rule]

Tonight's ND-DePaul game more brutally exemplified the importance of free throws than any game I have ever seen. In my life. DePaul absolutely blew the game at the line, handing it to ND on a silver platter. For the entire game, DePaul was an inexcusably pathetic 12 for 29 !! But it gets much much worse. In the second half, with leads at various times of as much as 8 points and never trailing after the 11 minute mark until the end of regulation, against an ND team not playing well and with the chance to put the game out of reach, DePaul missed the front end of 7 one-and-ones !! Holy cow !! On their home court !! In just the last 4:00 minutes of regulation, guard Hrynko went 1 for 6 from the line, several of which were the front ends of one-and-ones. In the overtime, Hrynko's horror show got even worse, going 3 for 9 shooting free throws, throwing up brick after brick. The kid didn't want any part of shooting free throws, I felt really bad for her. Coach Bruno and DePaul would have had a great win for their program if they could just do one of the easier yet critical elements in basketball. Sadly they couldn't.

 

[geneticrex]

No big deal, and since missing a certain amount of FTs on the year is inevitable just as losing 50 games in the MLB is, I'm not going to fret over it that much though I understand you will be losing some follicles over it. And all those who want to weep over UConn's terrible FT shooting in NC games will naturally understand if I pay more attention to the stats that really matter. And if there are those who say that the minimally acceptable FT% is one that only 7% of teams achieve in the best of years, I will say it is a noble goal but maybe getting back in touch with reality can also be a useful goal.

And bottom line, if you want to win games, score more baskets. I know you worship your FTs, but the Huskies did win some games last year where the other team scored more points at the charity stripe, including yes that NC game. Feel free not to be concerned about the dumb passes that prevent the buckets from being scored or any of the other integral parts of a smoothly running championship team since I'm sure that gnashing the molars down to the gums over missed freebies is the best way to get to #10.

I normally don't fret over missed shots, bad passes, missed free throws, or anything else that may disrupt a smoothly running championship team, since the majority of UCONN games are blowouts, including some of those national championship games.

I do sometimes fret over some of UCONN's losses when they could have won if not for inconsistent free throw shooting, or when they scored more baskets yet lost because of free throw disparity and while these may be a rare occurrence, it has happened.

Statistics can be deceiving and like a very smart man once said, "There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies and statistics".

If only ND had missed 1 more free throw tonight.

 

[meyers7]

But it gets much much worse. In the second half, with leads at various times of as much as 8 points and never trailing after the 11 minute mark until the end of regulation, against an ND team not playing well and with the chance to put the game out of reach, DePaul missed the front end of 7 one-and-ones !!

Ok hold on. I did not see the game but how did they get 7 one-and-ones, in the second half? I must be missing something. You only get to shoot one-and-ones on the 7th foul in a half. At the 10th foul you shoot 2. How did they get 7 chances between fouls 7 and 10???

 

[Huskies Rule]

As I steamed watching DePaul blow FT after FT and give game away, had brain cell meltdown as they missed more like 7 bazillion chances.

 

[Icebear]

There have been few more clear examples of how important competency on foul shooting is than watching DePaul choke. It completely steamrolled and got away from them.

 

[Zorro]

I don't have the time or incentive to do the research, but am willing to bet that if anyone does, you will find that there is no correlation between free-throw accuracy and either the importance of the game or the closeness of the game. I don't know if any research has been done on this, but Stephen Jay Gould did do some research on "hot streats" and "cold streaks" and found no correlation at all between recent past performance and current performance. That is to say, a player who had just swished six shots was no more or less likely to make the next than the same player who had just missed six. The only statistical predictor of the success or failure of a shot was the player's over-all record of success or failure. A 67& shooter has a 67% chance of making a given shot regardless. I think that all this talk of "choking" or "stepping up" is simply wrong; you either make 'em or you don't. The "law of large numbers" says that, although if you flip a coin 10,000 times, you will get very close to 5000 heads and 5000 tails, over that stretch you will have runs of 10, 15, 20 or more consecutive heads (or tails). The same applies to free-throw shooting.

 

[Bill In Georgia]

Wonder, What is the daily drill for FT's these days. Used to be in the 1950/60ies .. 25 off the bench, then three rounds of ... three laps and 1 and then 1 lap and 1 another lap and 1. You had to make all 3 shots or you repeated up to 3 rounds.
What's the drill in 2014?

 

[RadyLady]

Its funny reading this thread now..
we didn't shoot 3 free throws well but we did everything else well and we won the game, and the free throws were not an issue.

anybody see the DePaul game last night?

 

[Icebear]

Its funny reading this thread now..
we didn't shoot 3 free throws well but we did everything else well and we won the game, and the free throws were not an issue.

anybody see the DePaul game last night?

Different story wasn't it.

 

[sawxfan23]

Don't think free throws are important? Just ask the men's team which won a National Championship last year because they shot 10/10 from the line while Kentucky was 13/24. In fact they were able to shoot an amazing 41/45 from the Elite 8 through the National Championship game.

 

[Bayareahusky]

how many times has syracuse lost big games because they could not hit from the free stripe?

 

[Zorro]

I am not saying that they are not important; of course they are. I am only saying that there is really nothing you can do about them. They drop or they don't drop. One more piece of evidence, and I rest my case;
https://books.google.com.gt/books?i...nepage&q=stephen gould on hot streaks&f=false

 

[DobbsRover2]

Ah, those cursed missed FTs. Always an easy boogie man to blame defeats on and then rail about how ultra important they are to a team's success. I could as well point a defense that allows 80+ points, or poor rebounding, or not being able to hit those 3s as the chief bugaboo for teams. Speaking of which, going back to that 2001 semi game with ND, clearly it was that 20% UConn shooting on 3s (and DT 0-11) that doomed UConn rather than giving up 90 points. I say that because that's my chief bugaboo for today, just like others harp on their beloved FT%. The fact that UConn went 0-9 on 3s the next year while winning the NC does not change my mind a whit because stats are just mindless annoyances.

I'll post a thread shortly reviewing the 17 NCAA stats categories and what bearing they seem to have on the top team's success, but likely it will be sent elsewhere to that cessy forum since stat analyses are generally frowned on and get you banned on the BY.

 

[hussybulldog]

Nobody was arguing FT was at the top of the list of losing. Certainly it is not important at all in all those blow outs you mentioned. However it can alter the outcome of those contested games.

Again, losses can be blamed on many factors, and any one you choose to pin the FTs on I can just as easily point to dumb passes or missed assignments or Geno's hair gel.

Last year UConn had likely the worst FT shooting game ever against the Irish with a 46.7% effort, but I don't think that was much on their minds while they were cutting down the NC nets. In both of the years before that they shot 82% in losses to ND and in neither of those two years of losing 3 of 4 to ND did they shoot under 67%. As said, other factors weighed far more heavily, including the fact that they took only 11 FTAs in those two 82% FT shooting losses.

The good thing is that three of the four times the Huskies won the NC in the previous 6 years, the FT% improved over the course of the season by at least a modest amount. Hard to say about 2009-10 because the FT shooting that year was a crazy roller coaster all year long that culminated in a 20-41 effort in the FF. In fact, UConn has shot a combined 51% at the FT line in its last three NCs, and still only 57% if you throw in 2008-09. Maybe some big game pressure showing there, but FT% did not cost them any NC games.

 

[Beemer]

Free throws are important precisely because they are free- nobody in your face, nobody trying to steal the ball from you, nobody blocking your shot. Just you and the basket. A free throw can mean the difference between a win and a loss.

Why wouldn't a coach want his/her team to excel at free throw shooting? It is a chance for the team to get something for nothing.

 

[VAMike23]

Ah, those cursed missed FTs. Always an easy boogie man to blame defeats on and then rail about how ultra important they are to a team's success. I could as well point a defense that allows 80+ points, or poor rebounding, or not being able to hit those 3s as the chief bugaboo for teams. Speaking of which, going back to that 2001 semi game with ND, clearly it was that 20% UConn shooting on 3s (and DT 0-11) that doomed UConn rather than giving up 90 points. I say that because that's my chief bugaboo for today, just like others harp on their beloved FT%. The fact that UConn went 0-9 on 3s the next year while winning the NC does not change my mind a whit because stats are just mindless annoyances.

I'll post a thread shortly reviewing the 17 NCAA stats categories and what bearing they seem to have on the top team's success, but likely it will be sent elsewhere to that cessy forum since stat analyses are generally frowned on and get you banned on the BY.

Yeah, pretty much anyone who offers up statistical analysis of any sort gets banned here. That's the ticket! Makes perfect sense. I'm sure we could go do a forum search for any posters who bring up statistics and analyze them and then see these same posters mysteriously dropping away like flies, by the dozens.

Or maybe what some would like to call "analysis" is really a little bit of analysis and a lot of something else.

 

[Bestiarius]

Practicing free throws is time consuming and difficult. There is only so much practice time available so it might not be as high a priority as it might seem to warrant.

Practicing FTs needs to be done under game conditions. I remember this from my own experience. Being in a close, stressful game and stepping to the line. You're fatigued, arms and legs shaking, thinking you'll be lucky to hit the rim. So, how easily in practice can game conditions be simulated? That's the rub. It can be done, but it's not easy. I'm constantly amazed when a player sinks two late in tight game.

 

[j66kicker]

I don't have the time or incentive to do the research, but am willing to bet that if anyone does, you will find that there is no correlation between free-throw accuracy and either the importance of the game or the closeness of the game. I don't know if any research has been done on this, but Stephen Jay Gould did do some research on "hot streats" and "cold streaks" and found no correlation at all between recent past performance and current performance. That is to say, a player who had just swished six shots was no more or less likely to make the next than the same player who had just missed six. The only statistical predictor of the success or failure of a shot was the player's over-all record of success or failure. A 67& shooter has a 67% chance of making a given shot regardless. I think that all this talk of "choking" or "stepping up" is simply wrong; you either make 'em or you don't. The "law of large numbers" says that, although if you flip a coin 10,000 times, you will get very close to 5000 heads and 5000 tails, over that stretch you will have runs of 10, 15, 20 or more consecutive heads (or tails). The same applies to free-throw shooting.

I don't think choking - or "clutch" performance - is random. Probability of DePaul missing that many FT's in a row at the end of the game last night is pretty low - "unbelievable" sort of (I think that word was used in the ND-DePaul thread). IMO they choked, maybe based on the anxiety of the huge moment, not being accustomed to succeeding in that type of unexpected, and high-profile scenario. Also, think of "clutch" baseball hitters whose batting averages over a long period of time are higher with runners in scoring position.

 

[RadyLady]

Yeah, pretty much anyone who offers up statistical analysis of any sort gets banned here. That's the ticket! Makes perfect sense. I'm sure we could go do a forum search for any posters who bring up statistics and analyze them and then see these same posters mysteriously dropping away like flies, by the dozens.

Or maybe what some would like to call "analysis" is really a little bit of analysis and a lot of something else.

There were a bunch of posters who were into stats and numbers, but their numbers have dropped off in the last year or so I guess. I have to confess that back in the day, looking at these numbers sometimes made my head spin, yet I realized that having them gave some substance to what is actually happening in a game, over a season, and over a career. It's where I get my "you need more data before you can say that" cry from these days...

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Free throws are very important to success, but no team is going to be at the top in every category. Field goal percentage, defense and rebounding are probably better indicators of success. Also, free throw percentage doesn't indicate how many times a team or player gets to the line. I'd rather have a team get to the line 30 times a game (although that would be boring) and shoot 50% than have a team get to the line 15 times a game and shoot 75%. I've seen some dreadful teams have great free throw shooting percentages.

 

[baggerbob]

I just did a little digging on the topic of free throws. I looked at the ft%s of Tina Charles, Charde Houston, Swin Cash and Ashley Battle over their four years at UConn. Of the four, Battle was the only one whose ft average as a senior was significantly better than her average as a freshman; actually she had a big jump of over ten % between her soph and jr years, and then regressed slightly as a sr. My memory told me that Tina had improved greatly over her UConn career; my memory lied (as it so often does). She was not significantly better as a sr than as a frosh. All of which goes to support my previous opinion; when it comes to shooting freebies, practice is simply no help. Either you are a deadeye (like KML) or your aren't (as with KN). If there was indeed some way to improve a player's ft percentage, Geno or Pat or Muffett or Jeff or someone would have found it long ago. If KN is a 67 % ft shooter, we are just going to have to live with that. (Wilt Chamberlain had a pretty good career, in spite of being totally unable to hit freebies.) She does enough other things superbly to more than make up for this one shortcoming. It has nothing at all to do with desire, good intentions, "choking", or anything other than some native ability to shoot freebies accurately. Incidenally, four players is not much of a sample, so someone may be able to find stats that disprove my contention.

And in the 100 point game by Wilt, he hit 28-32 free throws.

 

[Intpseeker]

Why wouldn't a coach want his/her team to excel at free throw shooting? It is a chance for the team to get something for nothing.

Just a guess, but I'm pretty sure that every coach in the entire world wants his/her team to excel at FT's. The basic flaw in the argument is that they are easy. They aren't, and the proof is that this argument/discussion takes place regularly. After running your butt all over the court, getting hacked and knocked down, experiencing oxygen debt, and shaking hands, which tends to mess up fine motor coordination, all you have to do is knock down a 15 footer with fans hooting and defenders moving and talking. Piece of cake, yes? Any of us could do it easily, yes? 90-95% of the time! yes?
Ask a player. Shooting any shot in the flow of the game is much easier than shooting a "free" throw.

 

[Icebear]

Free throws are one of those categories whose impact is difficult to measure. While I agree with Dobbs assessment of the macro impact in comparison to other categories of play there are aspects and moments when they become critical and their impact become huge because of game play dynamics.

Missing free throws early in a game or variances of even 10-20% between teams may make a difference of 1-4 points across a game. Game flow and competitive instinct can can help to wipe this out as well as can the number of times a team gets to the line.

However, where FT skill and perceived weakness has huge impact on game dynamics is in the last 2-3 minutes where it can change the way teams play trying to get to the line or how and who they defend and foul. Missed FTs are not just points lost in those moments but become TOs and lost possessions at a critical point in a game when there is little opportunity to recover from errors and lapses of performance.

It is a gift to an opponent when they see a team with 2-3 players on the court with FT %s of 50-65 or below in contrast to 3 on the court who shoot 75 -90%. It changes how you defend and who is left open and who is potentially fouled. Simple calculations of the normal metrics do not account for that.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Free throws are one of those categories whose impact is difficult to measure. While I agree with Dobbs assessment of the macro impact in comparison to other categories of play there are aspects and moments when they become critical and their impact become huge because of game play dynamics.

Missing free throws early in a game or variances of even 10-20% between teams may make a difference of 1-4 points across a game. Game flow and competitive instinct can can help to wipe this out as well as can the number of times a team gets to the line.

However, where FT skill and perceived weakness has huge impact on game dynamics is in the last 2-3 minutes where it can change the way teams play trying to get to the line or how and who they defend and foul. Missed FTs are not just points lost in those moments but become TOs and lost possessions at a critical point in a game when there is little opportunity to recover from errors and lapses of performance.

It is a gift to an opponent when they see a team with 2-3 players on the court with FT %s of 50-65 or below in contrast to 3 on the court who shoot 75 -90%. It changes how you defend and who is left open and who is potentially fouled. Simple calculations of the normal metrics do not account for that.

Totally agree that FT shooting often takes on added significance at the end of the game, when teams that are behind by small to moderate amounts are more likely to foul, even against pretty good shooting teams. Not sure why Bruno hasn't recruited someone who can both handle the ball and shoot FTs moderately well since Hrynko is challenged in that area and the three main ball handlers are at 65%. That is kind of an invitation to zap a Demon, and UConn's main ball handlers through the years have all been at least at 70% (by the end of the season) and usually much better except for Jen Rizzotti. Heck, even when a post player is a ball distributor like Dolson (79% last year) or McLaren as a junior (73%), they weren't really people you'd want to hack at the end if they got the ball.

Putting opponents at the line late in a game has its risks and it can backfire, as teams that were 5 or 6 down with a minute to go watch a team unfortunately actually hit their freebies when a steal and forced turnovers would have possibly been a better option. Or you can succeed but go to an overtime or four like Baylor and KY and after many FOs be left with no one to shoot the ball except maybe the coach's daughter on a wing and a prayer. Games like DePaul-ND stick in the memory and give us total assurance that fouling is a great strategy and that FT% is god above all else at the end of games.

Last year everybody knew UNC was a terrible shooting FT team, about as bad as DePaul. So of course in the tourney S16 game UCSCar decided to start fouling the bad shooting UNC players when the Gamecocks were down by 3 with 1:51 to go. The Tarheels went to the line for 8 FTs in the last 111 seconds. Did they miss some? Sure, they're UNC. But they also made 6 and that small 3 point lead ballooned to 7 points. But we're never going to remember those cases or the hundreds more like them where the strategy may have backfired because we now know from the DePaul-ND games that a team is going to have a meltdown and blow the game. Perfect and settled.

 

[Zorro]

And in the 100 point game by Wilt, he hit 28-32 free throws.

Exactly. The law of large numbers says that 1) over time, a 55% shooter is a 55% shooter, but it also says 2) over any given limited sample, the shooter's performance may deviate wildly from this average, either to the good, as in your Wilt example, or to the bad, as with the unfortunate Ms. Hrynko. I am sure that Wilt also had games in which he went ohfer, and that Ms. Hrynko will have games in which she will shoot 100%. This in no way refutes my contention that good free-throw shooting can not be learned, or notably improved upon by practice.

My whole point is that those who say that anyone is a good/bad ft shooter from practice/lack of practice is simply misled. Practice does not help.

 

[Icebear]

My whole point is that those who say that anyone is a good/bad ft shooter from practice/lack of practice is simply misled. Practice does not help.

Maybe not from a lack of practice in general but it can be from a lack of practicing good form. Of course, form can be limited by physical charateristics. Shaq had a wrist that did not allow him a normal range of motion.