Free throws

[Bestiarius]

Practicing free throws is time consuming and difficult. There is only so much practice time available so it might not be as high a priority as it might seem to warrant.

Practicing FTs needs to be done under game conditions. I remember this from my own experience. Being in a close, stressful game and stepping to the line. You're fatigued, arms and legs shaking, thinking you'll be lucky to hit the rim. So, how easily in practice can game conditions be simulated? That's the rub. It can be done, but it's not easy. I'm constantly amazed when a player sinks two late in tight game.

 

[j66kicker]

I don't have the time or incentive to do the research, but am willing to bet that if anyone does, you will find that there is no correlation between free-throw accuracy and either the importance of the game or the closeness of the game. I don't know if any research has been done on this, but Stephen Jay Gould did do some research on "hot streats" and "cold streaks" and found no correlation at all between recent past performance and current performance. That is to say, a player who had just swished six shots was no more or less likely to make the next than the same player who had just missed six. The only statistical predictor of the success or failure of a shot was the player's over-all record of success or failure. A 67& shooter has a 67% chance of making a given shot regardless. I think that all this talk of "choking" or "stepping up" is simply wrong; you either make 'em or you don't. The "law of large numbers" says that, although if you flip a coin 10,000 times, you will get very close to 5000 heads and 5000 tails, over that stretch you will have runs of 10, 15, 20 or more consecutive heads (or tails). The same applies to free-throw shooting.

I don't think choking - or "clutch" performance - is random. Probability of DePaul missing that many FT's in a row at the end of the game last night is pretty low - "unbelievable" sort of (I think that word was used in the ND-DePaul thread). IMO they choked, maybe based on the anxiety of the huge moment, not being accustomed to succeeding in that type of unexpected, and high-profile scenario. Also, think of "clutch" baseball hitters whose batting averages over a long period of time are higher with runners in scoring position.

 

[RadyLady]

Yeah, pretty much anyone who offers up statistical analysis of any sort gets banned here. That's the ticket! Makes perfect sense. I'm sure we could go do a forum search for any posters who bring up statistics and analyze them and then see these same posters mysteriously dropping away like flies, by the dozens.

Or maybe what some would like to call "analysis" is really a little bit of analysis and a lot of something else.

There were a bunch of posters who were into stats and numbers, but their numbers have dropped off in the last year or so I guess. I have to confess that back in the day, looking at these numbers sometimes made my head spin, yet I realized that having them gave some substance to what is actually happening in a game, over a season, and over a career. It's where I get my "you need more data before you can say that" cry from these days...

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Free throws are very important to success, but no team is going to be at the top in every category. Field goal percentage, defense and rebounding are probably better indicators of success. Also, free throw percentage doesn't indicate how many times a team or player gets to the line. I'd rather have a team get to the line 30 times a game (although that would be boring) and shoot 50% than have a team get to the line 15 times a game and shoot 75%. I've seen some dreadful teams have great free throw shooting percentages.

 

[baggerbob]

I just did a little digging on the topic of free throws. I looked at the ft%s of Tina Charles, Charde Houston, Swin Cash and Ashley Battle over their four years at UConn. Of the four, Battle was the only one whose ft average as a senior was significantly better than her average as a freshman; actually she had a big jump of over ten % between her soph and jr years, and then regressed slightly as a sr. My memory told me that Tina had improved greatly over her UConn career; my memory lied (as it so often does). She was not significantly better as a sr than as a frosh. All of which goes to support my previous opinion; when it comes to shooting freebies, practice is simply no help. Either you are a deadeye (like KML) or your aren't (as with KN). If there was indeed some way to improve a player's ft percentage, Geno or Pat or Muffett or Jeff or someone would have found it long ago. If KN is a 67 % ft shooter, we are just going to have to live with that. (Wilt Chamberlain had a pretty good career, in spite of being totally unable to hit freebies.) She does enough other things superbly to more than make up for this one shortcoming. It has nothing at all to do with desire, good intentions, "choking", or anything other than some native ability to shoot freebies accurately. Incidenally, four players is not much of a sample, so someone may be able to find stats that disprove my contention.

And in the 100 point game by Wilt, he hit 28-32 free throws.

 

[Intpseeker]

Why wouldn't a coach want his/her team to excel at free throw shooting? It is a chance for the team to get something for nothing.

Just a guess, but I'm pretty sure that every coach in the entire world wants his/her team to excel at FT's. The basic flaw in the argument is that they are easy. They aren't, and the proof is that this argument/discussion takes place regularly. After running your butt all over the court, getting hacked and knocked down, experiencing oxygen debt, and shaking hands, which tends to mess up fine motor coordination, all you have to do is knock down a 15 footer with fans hooting and defenders moving and talking. Piece of cake, yes? Any of us could do it easily, yes? 90-95% of the time! yes?
Ask a player. Shooting any shot in the flow of the game is much easier than shooting a "free" throw.

 

[Icebear]

Free throws are one of those categories whose impact is difficult to measure. While I agree with Dobbs assessment of the macro impact in comparison to other categories of play there are aspects and moments when they become critical and their impact become huge because of game play dynamics.

Missing free throws early in a game or variances of even 10-20% between teams may make a difference of 1-4 points across a game. Game flow and competitive instinct can can help to wipe this out as well as can the number of times a team gets to the line.

However, where FT skill and perceived weakness has huge impact on game dynamics is in the last 2-3 minutes where it can change the way teams play trying to get to the line or how and who they defend and foul. Missed FTs are not just points lost in those moments but become TOs and lost possessions at a critical point in a game when there is little opportunity to recover from errors and lapses of performance.

It is a gift to an opponent when they see a team with 2-3 players on the court with FT %s of 50-65 or below in contrast to 3 on the court who shoot 75 -90%. It changes how you defend and who is left open and who is potentially fouled. Simple calculations of the normal metrics do not account for that.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Free throws are one of those categories whose impact is difficult to measure. While I agree with Dobbs assessment of the macro impact in comparison to other categories of play there are aspects and moments when they become critical and their impact become huge because of game play dynamics.

Missing free throws early in a game or variances of even 10-20% between teams may make a difference of 1-4 points across a game. Game flow and competitive instinct can can help to wipe this out as well as can the number of times a team gets to the line.

However, where FT skill and perceived weakness has huge impact on game dynamics is in the last 2-3 minutes where it can change the way teams play trying to get to the line or how and who they defend and foul. Missed FTs are not just points lost in those moments but become TOs and lost possessions at a critical point in a game when there is little opportunity to recover from errors and lapses of performance.

It is a gift to an opponent when they see a team with 2-3 players on the court with FT %s of 50-65 or below in contrast to 3 on the court who shoot 75 -90%. It changes how you defend and who is left open and who is potentially fouled. Simple calculations of the normal metrics do not account for that.

Totally agree that FT shooting often takes on added significance at the end of the game, when teams that are behind by small to moderate amounts are more likely to foul, even against pretty good shooting teams. Not sure why Bruno hasn't recruited someone who can both handle the ball and shoot FTs moderately well since Hrynko is challenged in that area and the three main ball handlers are at 65%. That is kind of an invitation to zap a Demon, and UConn's main ball handlers through the years have all been at least at 70% (by the end of the season) and usually much better except for Jen Rizzotti. Heck, even when a post player is a ball distributor like Dolson (79% last year) or McLaren as a junior (73%), they weren't really people you'd want to hack at the end if they got the ball.

Putting opponents at the line late in a game has its risks and it can backfire, as teams that were 5 or 6 down with a minute to go watch a team unfortunately actually hit their freebies when a steal and forced turnovers would have possibly been a better option. Or you can succeed but go to an overtime or four like Baylor and KY and after many FOs be left with no one to shoot the ball except maybe the coach's daughter on a wing and a prayer. Games like DePaul-ND stick in the memory and give us total assurance that fouling is a great strategy and that FT% is god above all else at the end of games.

Last year everybody knew UNC was a terrible shooting FT team, about as bad as DePaul. So of course in the tourney S16 game UCSCar decided to start fouling the bad shooting UNC players when the Gamecocks were down by 3 with 1:51 to go. The Tarheels went to the line for 8 FTs in the last 111 seconds. Did they miss some? Sure, they're UNC. But they also made 6 and that small 3 point lead ballooned to 7 points. But we're never going to remember those cases or the hundreds more like them where the strategy may have backfired because we now know from the DePaul-ND games that a team is going to have a meltdown and blow the game. Perfect and settled.

 

[Zorro]

And in the 100 point game by Wilt, he hit 28-32 free throws.

Exactly. The law of large numbers says that 1) over time, a 55% shooter is a 55% shooter, but it also says 2) over any given limited sample, the shooter's performance may deviate wildly from this average, either to the good, as in your Wilt example, or to the bad, as with the unfortunate Ms. Hrynko. I am sure that Wilt also had games in which he went ohfer, and that Ms. Hrynko will have games in which she will shoot 100%. This in no way refutes my contention that good free-throw shooting can not be learned, or notably improved upon by practice.

My whole point is that those who say that anyone is a good/bad ft shooter from practice/lack of practice is simply misled. Practice does not help.

 

[Icebear]

My whole point is that those who say that anyone is a good/bad ft shooter from practice/lack of practice is simply misled. Practice does not help.

Maybe not from a lack of practice in general but it can be from a lack of practicing good form. Of course, form can be limited by physical charateristics. Shaq had a wrist that did not allow him a normal range of motion.

 

[jaba]

Of course practicing free throws matters...How else do you explain Rick Barry being the best free throw shooter in ABA history and the third best in NBA history...I don't remember him nailing a lot of outside jumpers underhanded, which is the way he shot free throws

 

[DobbsRover2]

Exactly. The law of large numbers says that 1) over time, a 55% shooter is a 55% shooter, but it also says 2) over any given limited sample, the shooter's performance may deviate wildly from this average, either to the good, as in your Wilt example, or to the bad, as with the unfortunate Ms. Hrynko. I am sure that Wilt also had games in which he went ohfer, and that Ms. Hrynko will have games in which she will shoot 100%. This in no way refutes my contention that good free-throw shooting can not be learned, or notably improved upon by practice.

My whole point is that those who say that anyone is a good/bad ft shooter from practice/lack of practice is simply misled. Practice does not help.

Practice, even practicing with good form, doesn't appear to help much as the game situation is always very different from the practice floor situation. My unsupported guess about the fact that the majority of teams and players improve slightly as the year goes on is simply that they gain from experience and can tune out some of the distractions better or finally remember to take an extra breath or two before stepping to the line when they're tired. There are a lot of shots that are 100% dead as they leave the hand, but just remembering to put enough arc on it to get it over the rim will at least give it a fighting "oops was I lucky" chance.

I still believe that a clinic with a FT expert can make a significant difference, but you have to be able to absorb the lesson and actually use it in a game.

 

[Icebear]

There are NBA teams spending a lot of money to improve their foul shooting.

 

[RadyLady]

Practicing free throws is time consuming and difficult. There is only so much practice time available so it might not be as high a priority as it might seem to warrant.

Practicing FTs needs to be done under game conditions. I remember this from my own experience. Being in a close, stressful game and stepping to the line. You're fatigued, arms and legs shaking, thinking you'll be lucky to hit the rim. So, how easily in practice can game conditions be simulated? That's the rub. It can be done, but it's not easy. I'm constantly amazed when a player sinks two late in tight game.

Its all muscle memory dude...

 

[RadyLady]

No big deal, and since missing a certain amount of FTs on the year is inevitable just as losing 50 games in the MLB is, I'm not going to fret over it that much though I understand you will be losing some follicles over it. And all those who want to weep over UConn's terrible FT shooting in NC games will naturally understand if I pay more attention to the stats that really matter. And if there are those who say that the minimally acceptable FT% is one that only 7% of teams achieve in the best of years, I will say it is a noble goal but maybe getting back in touch with reality can also be a useful goal.

And bottom line, if you want to win games, score more baskets. I know you worship your FTs, but the Huskies did win some games last year where the other team scored more points at the charity stripe, including yes that NC game. Feel free not to be concerned about the dumb passes that prevent the buckets from being scored or any of the other integral parts of a smoothly running championship team since I'm sure that gnashing the molars down to the gums over missed freebies is the best way to get to #10.

I'm thinking that number 25 DePaul was poised to take down number 5 Notre Dame and blew it at the line Notre Dame wasn't going to let them score, they were going to keep fouling them. DePaul had a lead to which they could have added with all the free throw opportunities and they didn't! you can bet your boots that Doug Bruno is going to ensure that free throws if not part of a practice, then a part of individual workouts.

Many many times close games are decided at the foul line you have two teams playing equally well, the score is going to be close. So free throw shooting ends up being very key to pulling out the W.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Free throws are important for several reasons, among them (1) in a close game, they can be the difference between winning and losing and (2) good shooting makes the women's game more appealing. WCBB has too many missed layups and scrums for loose balls, which the detractors note. Good FT shooting can offset some of the criticisms.

I miss OC too. His treatise on FT shooting should be resurrected. Good form AND repetition are key. Ray Allen is clearly OCD, but look at his great results.

The team's shooting depends on (1) how well each player shoots and (2) who gets the most shots. I'd love to see KML get more FTs, because she is almost automatic. Morgan is a pretty good shooter. Both Gabby and Kia need to improve. I'd like to see them at 70% or more.