Four Chances Down, Four To Go

[Sphinx]

Here's a question: Can a team with a 27-7 record but no quality road wins and only one quality neutral court win go to the NCAA tournament at all? (Define quality opponent as P5 conference or Top-25 ranked.)

I address this to boneyarders who keep telling us that this or that game won't make or break the season. My view? This season is already broken to the point where heroic measures may be needed to save it. By "heroic", I mean the likes of a win at Texas.

There were always just eight chances to post either a quality road win or a quality neutral court win this season.

Road: Texas, SMU, Cincy
Neutral: 3 in Battle 4 Atlantis, Maryland, Cincy in AAC March tournament.

That's it. Wins at Tulsa, Memphis, Houston or Temple would be mighty nice, but they would not be against ranked teams or P5 teams.

UConn is 1-3 in quality neutral court games to date. It has all three quality road games ahead of it and likely a neutral court showdown with Cincy in March. It has, in a word, exactly four chances left to prove itself something other than a team that can win at home.

Now let's say that UConn loses all three of these really tough road games. Let's say it wins out all the rest of its schedule going into the championship game of the AAC tourney against Cincy. It would sport a record of 27-6. Question: does it need to win this game to get to the NCAAs? Remember, this would be a team with NO quality road wins and exactly ONE quality neutral court win.

Fact is, the four neutral court games to date were always critical to UConn's season. Losing three of them was never a choice. The fact that three of them have been lost creates a necessity for UConn to win at Texas.

 

[mauconnfan]

No Texas is not a must win and you get me to 27-7 and there's no way UConn is out no matter how the 27 wins shake out.

 

[Kitaman]

The team today will not be our team at the end of next month. I just feel they are still in school. New players, new starters and players still developing on court chemistry.

Miller, Adams and Gibbs are key players learning a new system and learning to play with new teammates. That stuff takes time, particularly with the expectations of Ollie. To date no leader has emerged so that 'unfortunately' has to develop.

Come the end of the January we will really know what we have, and our future a little clearer. I expect us to be a solid and formidable squad in the second half of the season. DHam is just getting started and he looks more and more comfortable/confident with the ball.

This sleeping dog will wake up!

 

[Gurleyman]

Here's a question: Can a team with a 27-7 record but no quality road wins and only one quality neutral court win go to the NCAA tournament at all? (Define quality opponent as P5 conference or Top-25 ranked.) I address this to boneyarders who keep telling us that this or that game won't make or break the season. My view? This season is already broken to the point where heroic measures may be needed to save it. By "heroic", I mean the likes of a win at Texas. There were always just eight chances to post either a quality road win or a quality neutral court win this season. Road: Texas, SMU, Cincy Neutral: 3 in Battle 4 Atlantis, Maryland, Cincy in AAC March tournament. That's it. Wins at Tulsa, Memphis, Houston or Temple would be mighty nice, but they would not be against ranked teams or P5 teams. UConn is 1-3 in quality neutral court games to date. It has all three quality road games ahead of it and likely a neutral court showdown with Cincy in March. It has, in a word, exactly four chances left to prove itself something other than a team that can win at home. Now let's say that UConn loses all three of these really tough road games. Let's say it wins out all the rest of its schedule going into the championship game of the AAC tourney against Cincy. It would sport a record of 27-6. Question: does it need to win this game to get to the NCAAs? Remember, this would be a team with NO quality road wins and exactly ONE quality neutral court win. Fact is, the four neutral court games to date were always critical to UConn's season. Losing three of them was never a choice. The fact that three of them have been lost creates a necessity for UConn to win at Texas.

Quality has nothing to do with P5. Monmouth has several quality wins, but Rutgers isn't one of them. We'd have been better off beating Syracuse but it wouldn't be much of a quality win. It would just mean we'd have a better record.

That said, a win over Texas would be helpful. At some point, you need a scalp or two, and it is more enjoyable late in the season when you are playing for seed and not playing for your lives.

 

[willie99]

I think it's funny these arguments are still being made. The AAC is NOT represented on the committee, bubble teams not represented on the committee are out, and that's that. All the traditional nonsense about OOC and SOS and road wins yada yada yada is nothing but poppycock. Committee representation, you're in if there are enough spots, no committee representation you're out unless there are extra spots.

So the trick is to not be a bubble team.

We're ranked or almost ranked right now. If we have a good season we'll be ranked. If we're ranked, we're a lock. Based on being ranked, 2 of the last 5 national titles, reputation, talent and eye test, we'll be in. It won't take a lot to get there and stay there, the path is very doable. However, if we have a disappointing season from here on out and finish unranked with a high RPI, don't expect an at large bid. We're out if we're a bubble team.

No delusions, the Texas game (or any game) in and by itself means nothing. The body of work had better be good enough to be ranked, lock or bust, that's what the AAC is until it's represented on the committee

 

[CTBasketball]

The only way we get snubbed is if we go winless vs. Texas/Georgetown and somehow go on 2-3 game losing streak in late February/March.

 

[Leebo]

Here's a question: Can a team with a 27-7 record but no quality road wins and only one quality neutral court win go to the NCAA tournament at all?

Yes

(Define quality opponent as P5 conference or Top-25 ranked.)

Kind of a weird definition. There are lots of P5 teams that no one would consider quality and lots of non-P5 teams that aren't ranked that would be great wins to have.

 

[intlzncster]

Win the AAC tournament and you can't keep them out no matter how badly you want to.

 

[CTBasketball]

Win the AAC tournament and you can't keep them out no matter how badly you want to.

And SMU won't be there! We have a shot!

 

[JSM1970]

UConn has wins against RPI 71, 81 and then every other win is 200+. Hopefully OSU and Mich will have good seasons and those will look like quality wins in March.

Texas is a must win. RPI top 20 team and win at their site is viewed favorably.

Gonzaga and Syracuse are bad teams. Maryland is pretty good and handled UConn with no problem, despite a late run that fizzled.

 

[intlzncster]

And SMU won't be there! We have a shot!

Nor Louisville. Everything is coming up Millhouse UCONN.

 

[Jerry1714]

UConn has wins against RPI 71, 81 and then every other win is 200+. Hopefully OSU and Mich will have good seasons and those will look like quality wins in March.

Texas is a must win. RPI top 20 team and win at their site is viewed favorably.

Gonzaga and Syracuse are bad teams. Maryland is pretty good and handled UConn with no problem, despite a late run that fizzled.

Gonzaga is a bad team?

These posts about making the tournament in December are tiresome, asinine, and waste of time

 

[wheelerdog]

We have to avoid bad losses. That's almost as important as getting a couple of quality wins.

That being said, I'll worry a lot less if we beat Texas.

 

[champs99and04]

If only neutral court and road wins matter, I guess Duke is out. Somebody better tell them that they only have three chances left @ Miami, @ UNC and @ Louisville.

 

[Ts5034]

I think we are all bothered by the fact that we are stuck playing all the RPI killers in the AAC, and yes that does hurt our resume for the tournament. The thing that has bothered me the most over the last couple seasons is how our schedule is front loaded and now we essentially play the meat of our schedule in Nov and Dec. UConn teams historically are at their best in February and March and there is no doubt in my mind that's how this team will be. It's just a shame because even if we are playing our best basketball, I personally don't think the "eye test" means that much to the committee anymore aND these losses definitely hurt our seeding.

If you look back to the 2007-2008 season, that team struggled against good teams and didn't really get that signature win vs a ranked team until mid-late January when they beat Marquette at Gampel. After that, we won about 10 in a row and since it was the old Big East, we took down a number of good teams along the way and built a resume that got us a 4 seed in the tournament. This season we don't have that many good teams left to have the luxury to do that. That's why the Atlantis tournament and games vs Maryland and now Texas are very important.

 

[JSM1970]

Yes, they are. They don't have a win against a RPI top 100 team. What is the basis for saying they are a good team exactly?

UConn currently has a RPI of 121 and zero quality wins (i.e., no wins against RPI top 50 teams). I see Texas as a must win.

Gonzaga is a bad team?

These posts about making the tournament in December are tiresome, asinine, and waste of time

 

[BFieldHusky]

Yes, they are. They don't have a win against a RPI top 100 team. What is the basis for saying they are a good team exactly?

UConn currently has a RPI of 121 and zero quality wins (i.e., no wins against RPI top 50 teams). I see Texas as a must win.

Do you understand how the RPI works? It is still Dec. 27 dude. Michigan will be a Top 50 win once conference play starts. Not sure about Ohio State, but they may get there as they beat Kentucky, and will play a lot of good teams in the Big Ten.

Check out the RPI in late January/early Feb. Right now Ville is No. 25 in the RPI and has no Top 50 wins either.

 

[intlzncster]

If only neutral court and road wins matter, I guess Duke is out. Somebody better tell them that they only have three chances left @ Miami, @ UNC and @ Louisville.

I love how everyone posts these hard and fast rules for qualifying/seeding in the NCAAs, when every year we see these same rules not applying to various teams. Especially bubble teams.

 

[intlzncster]

Do you understand how the RPI works? It is still Dec. 27 dude. Michigan will be a Top 50 win once conference play starts. Not sure about Ohio State, but they may get there as they beat Kentucky, and will play a lot of good teams in the Big Ten.

Check out the RPI in late January/early Feb. Right now Ville is No. 25 in the RPI and has no Top 50 wins either.

Seriously. This is like calling the winner of a marathon at the quarter mark. Dumb.

 

[Jerry1714]

Yes, they are. They don't have a win against a RPI top 100 team. What is the basis for saying they are a good team exactly?

UConn currently has a RPI of 121 and zero quality wins (i.e., no wins against RPI top 50 teams). I see Texas as a must win.

Using the RPI as a metric for anything in December is as asinine as saying a December game is a must win.

Try using metrics that matter Kenpom, Sargain, ect, you will sound a lot less foolish this way

 

[JSM1970]

The NCAA doesn't use Pom or Sagarin. They use RPI.

Regardless I think Texas is a must win. Top 50 road wins are huge.

Using the RPI as a metric for anything in December is as asinine as saying a December game is a must win.

Try using metrics that matter Kenpom, Sargain, ect, you will sound a lot less foolish this way

 

[jleves]

The NCAA doesn't use Pom or Sagarin. They use RPI.

Regardless I think Texas is a must win. Top 50 road wins are huge.

Do you understand what the term 'must win' means? It's an important win, no doubt, but if we don't win it does not eliminate us from the tourney.

 

[CTBasketball]

A win at Texas would certainly help our seeding...but its not a make or break to go dancing.

 

[4in16]

Seriously? 27-7 shouldn't be a question, also RPIs are going to change quite a bit from December to March, smh.

 

[JSM1970]

I agree. True, but it's a combination of also wanting a higher seed. Being in the AAC is tough. Getting a 10, 11 seed makes life tough.

Do you understand what the term 'must win' means? It's an important win, no doubt, but if we don't win it does not eliminate us from the tourney.