Fouls Drawn In Big East Play - I crunched the numbers

[CL82]

Figured I share this with everyone here.

I wanted to take a look at how UConn is at drawing fouls on drives compared to the rest of the Big East.

There are 58 players who have attempted at least 3 shots per game in the paint + at the rim and here is where UConn players rank (data is from in-conference games only):
View attachment 82718
What's even more mind bending are the fouls (not called) on Sanogo. Across the Big East with other high usage centers, they draw fouls on nearly 17% of their shots, compared to Sanogo who only draws fouls on 5.6%

Make of this what you wish. I know officiating has been discussed in like 100 different threads, but I figured I'd put some data together to see if it backs up the whistles we see / don't see.

Anyone who wants to double check my work or play around with the numbers can use this Google Sheet here:

Consider forwarding this to Dave Benedict?

 

[CheshireCat]

1. The statistical evidence is undeniable at this point. Anyone who does is trying too hard to look unbiased(looking at you @RobDauster ). Beyond statistical evidence is reporting from a big time CBB analyst that refs dislike our coach, which by nature could influence their 50/50 calls.

2. Hurley needs to stop going at officials in game. He’s made his bed in this regard. It’s only going to improve over time if he mends his relationships with the officials, which he can do by laying off consistently.

3. @auror posted stats in another thread which suggest Dans teams are always near the top of college basketball in foul rate. Even if the refs are biased, they can’t be 100% to blame for this trend. He’s gotta reign in the aggressive defense to some extent.

4. Some of our players do avoid contact. Sanogo gets the most blame here, but I do think people underrate how physical opposing teams get away with playing him. For example, Eric Dixon for Nova was absolutely hounding him off ball all game, usually a stud big man gets a few post positioning fouls here and there, but Sanogo can seemingly be shoved/hooked/thrown all game. But as it has been noted, he doesn’t do himself any favors with the way he shoots. Andre is never driving all the way consistently, which is why he’ll never shoot that many. I’d argue Newton gets the worst whistle out of anyone, which sucks because he’s a great free throw shooter.

Getting to the line and drawing contract is a skill. Playing defense without fouling is a skill - you said it yourself. If the numbers don’t lie, one could conclude that in addition to the incessant whining potentially being influential, collectively we are not very good at either skill vs it being “us against the world”. Most, not all, in the “blame the officials” camp are completely irrational. The data shows that these are 2 things the team needs to vastly improve on, however that needs to happen - it does not prove that “they are out to get us”.

 

[tentoes4rings]

I counted 6 times in the 2nd half that our guys got fouled, all were called. The common denominator? Guys were taking it to the rim each time. It’s a physical league and overall we have a deep and physical enough lineup to match the physical intensity of these teams.

 

[temery]

1. The statistical evidence is undeniable at this point.

I had a stats teacher at UConn present a strong correlation between eating ice cream, and drownings. The correlation was undeniable.

Digging deeper, it wasn't because Ben and Jerry's was offing ice cream lovers.

Hurley being an ass may affect a call or two. But it had nothing to do with a 10 pt, or 12 point loss.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

Figured I share this with everyone here.

I wanted to take a look at how UConn is at drawing fouls on drives compared to the rest of the Big East.

There are 58 players who have attempted at least 3 shots per game in the paint + at the rim and here is where UConn players rank (data is from in-conference games only):
View attachment 82718
What's even more mind bending are the fouls (not called) on Sanogo. Across the Big East with other high usage centers, they draw fouls on nearly 17% of their shots, compared to Sanogo who only draws fouls on 5.6%

Make of this what you wish. I know officiating has been discussed in like 100 different threads, but I figured I'd put some data together to see if it backs up the whistles we see / don't see.

Anyone who wants to double check my work or play around with the numbers can use this Google Sheet here:

we need to regain the "attack" philosophy and have at it. we shoot too much from the outside. drive to the basket and the fouls will come

 

[superjohn]

I counted 6 times in the 2nd half that our guys got fouled, all were called. The common denominator? Guys were taking it to the rim each time. It’s a physical league and overall we have a deep and physical enough lineup to match the physical intensity of these teams.

How many times were Newton and Clingan fouled with no call and how many times did UConn get whistled for the same stuff on the other end?

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Getting to the line and drawing contract is a skill. Playing defense without fouling is a skill - you said it yourself. If the numbers don’t lie, one could conclude that in addition to the incessant whining potentially being influential, collectively we are not very good at either skill vs it being “us against the world”. Most, not all, in the “blame the officials” camp are completely irrational. The data shows that these are 2 things the team needs to vastly improve on, however that needs to happen - it does not prove that “they are out to get us”.

Defense and getting to the line is what won us many games against solid OOC teams. Did we just lose those skills overnight?

 

[CheshireCat]

Defense and getting to the line is what won us many games against solid OOC teams. Did we just lose those skills overnight?

Ever hear of a team losing their way a little and getting into a funk? Conference play is a bit of a different animal. Teams know each other more, scouting is better with common opponents and more film and data available from out of conference play. It’s also no mystery that for better our worse, Big East conference play is a more physical brand of basketball and to date we have shown that maybe we’re better at “west coast” ball than “east coast” ball. That may serve us better come Ncaa tournament time - who knows? Magnifying some of this is the portal. Fair to say when you have a team as talented as us, that we (and most teams) are a tougher scout in November Vs January? Maybe not since many in here think Hurley is too stubborn and is not good at making adjustments. Fewer and fewer veteran teams where you can rely on last years data and film for scouting. PC - brand new lineup. Xavier brand new coach using the pieces very differently + Boum. Anyway - keep working with McLovin and the rest of the boneyard’s analytics team. They have all the answers. External factors that impact the data don’t matter

 

[tykurez]

I implore some of you conspiracy theorists to watch the game(s) and break it down. Show us where all this bias is.

Are we a statiscal anomaly? Based on @McLovin’s great work - yes.

Is it because some cabal of refs hate Dan Hurley’s guts so much they’ve decided to put a spell on UConn’s players, giving them the inability to draw fouls and play extraordinarily undisciplined defense on the other side of the ball? Also yes?

 

[superjohn]

Is it because some cabal of refs hate Dan Hurley’s guts so much they’ve decided to put a spell on UConn’s players, giving them the inability to draw fouls

No, they just decided it was okay for Providence to body our guards and bridge our big man and then call those fouls on the other end.

 

[Palatine]

I had a stats teacher at UConn present a strong correlation between eating ice cream, and drownings. The correlation was undeniable.

Digging deeper, it wasn't because Ben and Jerry's was offing ice cream lovers.

Hurley being an ass may affect a call or two. But it had nothing to do with a 10 pt, or 12 point loss.

Completely specious. But it is a fun fact.

 

[jayp123669]

I posted this elsewhere so sorry for double post.

I have family who officiate and understand the human element and try to be fair but this is egregious...I mean BOTH games UConn outscored PC and Xavier on the floor and essentially lost due to a one sided FT shooting contest. Ive watched 30 years of UConn basketball as well as nationally....to lose when you outscore the other opponent is RARE and usually its by a point or two either way. To lose when you outscore an opponent by 7? 9? Points AND lose by 10+ ...Id venture to say maybe 2% of the games EVER. Thats insanely rare. So unless these refs are "cooking" the games, which after Tim Donaghy, anything is possible especially with the nature and ease of gambling in our society currently, they have some issues with Hurley and are taking it out on UConn. Its clear to anyone watching.

 

[Kembacity]

One, I do think refs are sticking it to DH a bit. Probably started with the GT game where he kept calling the ref a “… Clown”. They’re human, I’d probably do the same. Hopefully just a 2 game thing to prove a point

Two, as some have said, our guys a very soft at the rim and avoid contact. AJ is most confusing as he’s aggressive and plays with an edge, except when driving to the hoop. Newton is such a good foul shooter, wish he was also more comfortable going up and drawing contact.

I know I’ve seen this thought that the refs take it out on Hurley throughout the game, but how about Cooley? The whistles going his way the entire game and the moment a clear charge is called on Hopkins he blows his top. If I were the ref I’d give him an immediate T and tell him you can’t give me this horsesht when the calls couldn’t be more in your favor.

Providences whole team whines about every call, they hugged Sanogo with both hands but couldn’t believe they got the whistle, why doesn’t that come back to hurt them?!?

 

[BPT2Storrs]

I think the biggest takeaway of the last two games is that we were still in the mix very late in the game even though we didn’t get to the line nearly as much as X or Providence.

Hurley knew he messed up in the X game with the technical. That killed us when we still had a shot at winning the game. Fast forward to Providence and Hurley had to bite his tongue even though there were a few instances where the refs deserved to be called out. They missed a blatant hook on Sanogo, there was a loose by scuffle at mid court in which players were all over the ground. Hell, I’m not just complaining about UConn. On AJaxs drive they called a foul on Providence and Jax wasn’t even touched. That’s outrageous.

Hurley needed to make better in game adjustments and are players need to knock down shots, but you can’t sit here and say for two straight games we were not getting calls that were being called on the other end.

 

[CL82]

Figured I share this with everyone here.

I wanted to take a look at how UConn is at drawing fouls on drives compared to the rest of the Big East.

There are 58 players who have attempted at least 3 shots per game in the paint + at the rim and here is where UConn players rank (data is from in-conference games only):
View attachment 82718
What's even more mind bending are the fouls (not called) on Sanogo. Across the Big East with other high usage centers, they draw fouls on nearly 17% of their shots, compared to Sanogo who only draws fouls on 5.6%

Make of this what you wish. I know officiating has been discussed in like 100 different threads, but I figured I'd put some data together to see if it backs up the whistles we see / don't see.

Anyone who wants to double check my work or play around with the numbers can use this Google Sheet here:

Could you generate an equalized comparison by team?

 

[Kembacity]

That was in the first half and called a foul, put the crack pipe down dummy

 

[REB1094]

That was in the first half and called a foul, put the crack pipe down dummy

Yeah I’m pretty sure that was his second foul lol. He got fouled on a layup that wasn’t called, then made this dumb play in frustration and had to sit the next 16 minutes for it

Not a great example to use

 

[CL82]

I thought the refs call was “illegal check of the prostate.”

 

[superjohn]

That was in the first half and called a foul, put the crack pipe down dummy

Friar is so terrible at this. He posts data not knowing what any of it means, he posts pictures of no call fouls that were actually called fouls and he does it all while trying to mock us.

It's fun to watch him come over here and drool all over himself.

 

[Palatine]

I had a stats teacher at UConn present a strong correlation between eating ice cream, and drownings. The correlation was undeniable.

Digging deeper, it wasn't because Ben and Jerry's was offing ice cream lovers.

Hurley being an ass may affect a call or two. But it had nothing to do with a 10 pt, or 12 point loss.

Actually, the correlation makes perfect sense. Ice cream sales are up in warm weather as are water activities. Much ice cream is consumed in seasonal shops near water. Swimming decreases in cold weather as do ice cream sales.

Therefore one could be fairly certain that an increase in ice cream sales would positively correlate to an increase in drownings. Not causal, but a strong and predictable correlation.