Fouls Drawn In Big East Play - I crunched the numbers

[CardiacAndre7]

Idk if there is a reffing bias beyond college refs just tend to be atrocious.

I still don’t understand how Croswell getting low and driving his legs as hard as he can to try to run over Sanogo while Sanogo holds his ground is a defensive foul.

So get Adama to do the same. He’s too big to fade away on half his shots. Show some balls and go at a guy strong. Get a foul. Get Croswell in foul trouble. Adama’s play on both ends has been incredibly aggravating, probably more than anyone else. Because we know what he is capable of and hasn’t shown it.

 

[Billy Jack]

Refs just seem to get hyped by the home crowd. Both last 2 games were loud, remember Xavier fans were booing loudly every foul call against them. Extremely poor one-sided officiated games, big east should be ashamed of their refs.

I don’t say this much but we lost the last 2 games cause of the refs. Or at the very least, we weren’t given a fighting chance. Hard to win games when everyone’s in foul trouble and the team is in the double bonus 10 minutes into each half, while the other team has 1-2 team fouls.

We lost to X because Hurley got T’d up with 2 minutes to go in a 3 point game. Handing the opponent 2 points in that situation was huge. Unfortunately it was followed by a catch up strategy of lobbing up a series of 3-point attempts which all failed, leading to a double digit loss. The refs didn’t engineer that. The coach did.

 

[superjohn]

Spot on. I’d like to make one thing clear as well, I thought yesterday was complete BS. X was what it was because we took 37 threes. Yesterday we played in the paint and it was not called like for like at all.

But here’s the silver lining: It’s hard for anyone to win on the road in CBB. We have now lost two games on the road to arguably two of the top 4 teams in conference. These are not fall back from the pack losses. Creighton at home is a must win. Put it in pocket and go after a qualtiy road win at Marquette. Win both and we’re still very much on schedule for meeting our goal in the 2nd season.

Saturday is already a must win if we have ambitions winning the Big East and getting a 1 or 2 seed in the big dance. You really don't want to lose the home game knowing you'll have to go to Omaha and win later in the season, you don't want to go down 3 games in the Big East loss column, and you really don't want to lose at home with a really tough game coming up in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

 

[aburks41]

Idk how any one can watch these games and look at these numbers and say the games are being called fairly. They aren’t.

Goodman reporting last week that refs are privately telling him they hate Hurley is a legit problem for us and for the Big East. Refs are humans, and humans are biased by nature. We're going into every game fighting an uphill battle

 

[XLCenterFan]

Goodman reporting last week that refs are privately telling him they hate Hurley is a legit problem for us and for the Big East. Refs are humans, and humans are biased by nature. We're going into every game fighting an uphill battle

It’s us vs the other team AND the refs. Basically us vs the world.

 

[Kolumbo]

Hawkins, for the type of player he is, should be much higher on the list. The fact that he's only drawing 1 foul in 10 shots is a huge indicator. Meanwhile Carter Floppier is at 33%.

I assume it's because we're new company on the block, we're the loud guys, banking on wall street's door. The Big East prefers a lower rep, it seems.

 

[peeps]

So none of you went back into this thread and thought “wow this is the most pathetic thing I’ve ever posted”?

 

[Seamus84]

Goodman reporting last week that refs are privately telling him they hate Hurley is a legit problem for us and for the Big East. Refs are humans, and humans are biased by nature. We're going into every game fighting an uphill battle

I can’t believe this isn’t getting more attention by the league. Of course “Refs are human”, but this threatens the integrity of the game.

And what is UConn supposed to do? Play less aggressive defense? Then we’re toast because that’s not who we are. Drive more aggressively to the basket? What’s the point since the biased Ref’s will just call the charge.

The league has to require Goodman come clean (or STFU). Could be a very frustrating season.

 

[CaptainRon]

Stop. You’re embarrassing yourself.

Typically the highest ranked teams get the benefit of the doubt. It’s to the leagues advantage. This isn’t a giant conspiracy. “They” aren’t out to get us. Our style isn’t conducive to getting to the line. Theirs is, and the refs didn’t steal this game. We got out played and out coached on the road. It happens.

 

[OkaForPrez]

@Billy Jack hey man thanks for popping up for the first time since august on the realignment board and thank you for your interest in UConn basketball.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Data is from CBB Analytics - College Basketball Analytics, Stats & Metrics, & Research

Does that site or any other have our +/- by player?

 

[auror]

Does that site or any other have our +/- by player?

RAPM is a better version of +/- (the PM stands for plus minus).

On this link hit submit and then look at the RAPM diff column.

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&calcRapm=true&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=&onOffLuck=true&onQuery=&sortBy=desc%3Aoff_adj_rapm_margin%3Abaseline&team=UConn&year=2022%2F23&

 

[housekeys]

Refs just seem to get hyped by the home crowd. Both last 2 games were loud, remember Xavier fans were booing loudly every foul call against them. Extremely poor one-sided officiated games, big east should be ashamed of their refs.

I don’t say this much but we lost the last 2 games cause of the refs. Or at the very least, we weren’t given a fighting chance. Hard to win games when everyone’s in foul trouble and the team is in the double bonus 10 minutes into each half, while the other team has 1-2 team fouls.

I watched a bit of Xavier v St John's game where they had the coaches "miked-up". At half time, Mike Anderson, the coach of St John's gave a speech that, if I recall correctly, said, "we need to turn this into a street fight". It should be a basketball game not a street fight! Locker room talk can be colorful, I know. Still this was his strategy. It is a strategy because the coaches know the officials can't discern a street fight from solid basketball. This is the problem. Unfortunately, the BE embraces and wears it as a badge of honor. Allowing games to disintegrate into a street fight is unacceptable, IMO. Bad officiating flourishes in the BE. I doubt they have it out for just UConn. It is a conference thing. It forces UConn to rework itself into something it may not be good at. That is my fear. But there is still a long way to go and I have hope UConn will adapt.

 

[CheshireCat]

Figured I share this with everyone here.

I wanted to take a look at how UConn is at drawing fouls on drives compared to the rest of the Big East.

There are 58 players who have attempted at least 3 shots per game in the paint + at the rim and here is where UConn players rank (data is from in-conference games only):
View attachment 82718
What's even more mind bending are the fouls (not called) on Sanogo. Across the Big East with other high usage centers, they draw fouls on nearly 17% of their shots, compared to Sanogo who only draws fouls on 5.6%

Make of this what you wish. I know officiating has been discussed in like 100 different threads, but I figured I'd put some data together to see if it backs up the whistles we see / don't see.

Anyone who wants to double check my work or play around with the numbers can use this Google Sheet here:

https://twitter.com/robdauster/status/1611119695406448646?s=46&t=l0LbbYZWP-PsjHghKozD5w

Enough said.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

https://twitter.com/robdauster/status/1611119695406448646?s=46&t=l0LbbYZWP-PsjHghKozD5w

Enough said.

actually, a bit more to say, quoted from the link,

'stop whining about the referees!
stop complaining about the officials! ...
you make us all look bad when UConn fans do that.
stop beeyotchin about the officials!'

his words, my sentiment.

 

[housekeys]

https://twitter.com/robdauster/status/1611119695406448646?s=46&t=l0LbbYZWP-PsjHghKozD5w

Enough said.

BS. No one cares about whiny message board posters or the "quality" of UConn fans. LOL. We are fans. Just ignore us.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

RAPM is a better version of +/- (the PM stands for plus minus).

On this link hit submit and then look at the RAPM diff column.

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&calcRapm=true&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=&onOffLuck=true&onQuery=&sortBy=desc%3Aoff_adj_rapm_margin%3Abaseline&team=UConn&year=2022%2F23&

Thanks. So, Clingan leads the team, eh?

 

[huskyfan224]

https://twitter.com/robdauster/status/1611119695406448646?s=46&t=l0LbbYZWP-PsjHghKozD5w

Enough said.

Lol cmon Rob. I agree the refs aren’t the reason, but they certainly can share the blame. UConn made it a priority to drive/live in the paint against PC and came out with a 35-19 FTA differential while being a top 10 kenpom defense.

 

[Huskyforlife]

1. The statistical evidence is undeniable at this point. Anyone who does is trying too hard to look unbiased(looking at you @RobDauster ). Beyond statistical evidence is reporting from a big time CBB analyst that refs dislike our coach, which by nature could influence their 50/50 calls.

2. Hurley needs to stop going at officials in game. He’s made his bed in this regard. It’s only going to improve over time if he mends his relationships with the officials, which he can do by laying off consistently.

3. @auror posted stats in another thread which suggest Dans teams are always near the top of college basketball in foul rate. Even if the refs are biased, they can’t be 100% to blame for this trend. He’s gotta reign in the aggressive defense to some extent.

4. Some of our players do avoid contact. Sanogo gets the most blame here, but I do think people underrate how physical opposing teams get away with playing him. For example, Eric Dixon for Nova was absolutely hounding him off ball all game, usually a stud big man gets a few post positioning fouls here and there, but Sanogo can seemingly be shoved/hooked/thrown all game. But as it has been noted, he doesn’t do himself any favors with the way he shoots. Andre is never driving all the way consistently, which is why he’ll never shoot that many. I’d argue Newton gets the worst whistle out of anyone, which sucks because he’s a great free throw shooter.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

What about when Clingan got shoved in the back going for that loose rebound, and of course no call. You know the type of play…when one guy puts an arm/forearm in another guys back and the receiving end loses balances and puts their arms in the air like they just got pushed. It’s obvious the refs hate Dan Hurley. They have for years, and possibly for some good reasons. But to take it out on the players, in what seems to be an obvious fashion, is unreal. Last night I actually wanted him to get T’d up. I was saying if I was him, there’s no way I would not have been T’d up. How bad does does it have to get til AD Dave makes a statement?

Our guys were getting pushed on every board. Every single one. Rewatch. I lost count of how many times DC or AS was buried on the basket with a push in the back. Of course, PC is a “physical team” so let’s play on

 

[BlueMAB]

Many here forget that not all fouls are shooting fouls because one team attacks the rim more than the other team.

UConn shot 11 more 2pt FGs than Providence did, but Providence spent half the game in the bonus/double bonus, where anything but an offensive foul is a shooting foul.

You don't punish the players on the court for the coach's behavior. If the refs are sick of Hurley's actions they need to give him more technicals. Hard stop.

 

[CL82]

Figured I share this with everyone here.

I wanted to take a look at how UConn is at drawing fouls on drives compared to the rest of the Big East.

There are 58 players who have attempted at least 3 shots per game in the paint + at the rim and here is where UConn players rank (data is from in-conference games only):
View attachment 82718
What's even more mind bending are the fouls (not called) on Sanogo. Across the Big East with other high usage centers, they draw fouls on nearly 17% of their shots, compared to Sanogo who only draws fouls on 5.6%

Make of this what you wish. I know officiating has been discussed in like 100 different threads, but I figured I'd put some data together to see if it backs up the whistles we see / don't see.

Anyone who wants to double check my work or play around with the numbers can use this Google Sheet here:

Consider forwarding this to Dave Benedict?

 

[CheshireCat]

1. The statistical evidence is undeniable at this point. Anyone who does is trying too hard to look unbiased(looking at you @RobDauster ). Beyond statistical evidence is reporting from a big time CBB analyst that refs dislike our coach, which by nature could influence their 50/50 calls.

2. Hurley needs to stop going at officials in game. He’s made his bed in this regard. It’s only going to improve over time if he mends his relationships with the officials, which he can do by laying off consistently.

3. @auror posted stats in another thread which suggest Dans teams are always near the top of college basketball in foul rate. Even if the refs are biased, they can’t be 100% to blame for this trend. He’s gotta reign in the aggressive defense to some extent.

4. Some of our players do avoid contact. Sanogo gets the most blame here, but I do think people underrate how physical opposing teams get away with playing him. For example, Eric Dixon for Nova was absolutely hounding him off ball all game, usually a stud big man gets a few post positioning fouls here and there, but Sanogo can seemingly be shoved/hooked/thrown all game. But as it has been noted, he doesn’t do himself any favors with the way he shoots. Andre is never driving all the way consistently, which is why he’ll never shoot that many. I’d argue Newton gets the worst whistle out of anyone, which sucks because he’s a great free throw shooter.

Getting to the line and drawing contract is a skill. Playing defense without fouling is a skill - you said it yourself. If the numbers don’t lie, one could conclude that in addition to the incessant whining potentially being influential, collectively we are not very good at either skill vs it being “us against the world”. Most, not all, in the “blame the officials” camp are completely irrational. The data shows that these are 2 things the team needs to vastly improve on, however that needs to happen - it does not prove that “they are out to get us”.

 

[tentoes4rings]

I counted 6 times in the 2nd half that our guys got fouled, all were called. The common denominator? Guys were taking it to the rim each time. It’s a physical league and overall we have a deep and physical enough lineup to match the physical intensity of these teams.

 

[temery]

1. The statistical evidence is undeniable at this point.

I had a stats teacher at UConn present a strong correlation between eating ice cream, and drownings. The correlation was undeniable.

Digging deeper, it wasn't because Ben and Jerry's was offing ice cream lovers.

Hurley being an ass may affect a call or two. But it had nothing to do with a 10 pt, or 12 point loss.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

Figured I share this with everyone here.

I wanted to take a look at how UConn is at drawing fouls on drives compared to the rest of the Big East.

There are 58 players who have attempted at least 3 shots per game in the paint + at the rim and here is where UConn players rank (data is from in-conference games only):
View attachment 82718
What's even more mind bending are the fouls (not called) on Sanogo. Across the Big East with other high usage centers, they draw fouls on nearly 17% of their shots, compared to Sanogo who only draws fouls on 5.6%

Make of this what you wish. I know officiating has been discussed in like 100 different threads, but I figured I'd put some data together to see if it backs up the whistles we see / don't see.

Anyone who wants to double check my work or play around with the numbers can use this Google Sheet here:

we need to regain the "attack" philosophy and have at it. we shoot too much from the outside. drive to the basket and the fouls will come

 

[superjohn]

I counted 6 times in the 2nd half that our guys got fouled, all were called. The common denominator? Guys were taking it to the rim each time. It’s a physical league and overall we have a deep and physical enough lineup to match the physical intensity of these teams.

How many times were Newton and Clingan fouled with no call and how many times did UConn get whistled for the same stuff on the other end?

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Getting to the line and drawing contract is a skill. Playing defense without fouling is a skill - you said it yourself. If the numbers don’t lie, one could conclude that in addition to the incessant whining potentially being influential, collectively we are not very good at either skill vs it being “us against the world”. Most, not all, in the “blame the officials” camp are completely irrational. The data shows that these are 2 things the team needs to vastly improve on, however that needs to happen - it does not prove that “they are out to get us”.

Defense and getting to the line is what won us many games against solid OOC teams. Did we just lose those skills overnight?

 

[CheshireCat]

Defense and getting to the line is what won us many games against solid OOC teams. Did we just lose those skills overnight?

Ever hear of a team losing their way a little and getting into a funk? Conference play is a bit of a different animal. Teams know each other more, scouting is better with common opponents and more film and data available from out of conference play. It’s also no mystery that for better our worse, Big East conference play is a more physical brand of basketball and to date we have shown that maybe we’re better at “west coast” ball than “east coast” ball. That may serve us better come Ncaa tournament time - who knows? Magnifying some of this is the portal. Fair to say when you have a team as talented as us, that we (and most teams) are a tougher scout in November Vs January? Maybe not since many in here think Hurley is too stubborn and is not good at making adjustments. Fewer and fewer veteran teams where you can rely on last years data and film for scouting. PC - brand new lineup. Xavier brand new coach using the pieces very differently + Boum. Anyway - keep working with McLovin and the rest of the boneyard’s analytics team. They have all the answers. External factors that impact the data don’t matter

 

[tykurez]

I implore some of you conspiracy theorists to watch the game(s) and break it down. Show us where all this bias is.

Are we a statiscal anomaly? Based on @McLovin’s great work - yes.

Is it because some cabal of refs hate Dan Hurley’s guts so much they’ve decided to put a spell on UConn’s players, giving them the inability to draw fouls and play extraordinarily undisciplined defense on the other side of the ball? Also yes?