Florida Spread | The Boneyard

Florida Spread

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Yup. Not surprised. My buddy thought it would be closer to -7. I said no way considering it’s our first real road game, we are new to top 10 etc. I don’t care how “unranked” Florida is -it still going to be a tough one down there.
 
Neutral sites weren’t away at all very few raucous fans. This is the first real away test and a pretty good team on the other end. Coming in unbeaten and top 10 will have the students ready and noisy. Not surprised at the number at all.
 
I think it's finals week on campus. Some students may have already left.

I have some family and friends at other Florida campuses and they are on finals week. Some have their kids back home already for winter break.
 
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I don’t bet but the team is well rested and the only questions are 1. Are they on shooting tonight? 2. Will the refs screw us? We have 2 bigs to negate center foul trouble and that is a big deal and we have great defense. Happy with a win of any margin.
 
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navery12 said:
We covered Oklahoma State -9. We didn't cover against Buffalo where it was -20.5 and we won by 20
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Thanks. Whichever it was, we're 1 point away from being a perfect 9-0 ATS.
 
I'm worried. That line is lower than it should be, which means Vegas thinks Florida is better than their metrics.

Plus we have the top 10 team on the road against tournament quality unranked team thing working against us.
 
auror said:
I'm worried. That line is lower than it should be, which means Vegas thinks Florida is better than their metrics.

Plus we have the top 10 team on the road against tournament quality unranked team thing working against us.
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i mean, Maryland was undefeated going into a tough Wisconsin game on the road and the line was like -2 for Wisco. I feel like that's how this game is being looked at.
 
I think the OSU was the clunker. I think we keep out double digit streak in tact.
 
Chin Diesel said:
I think it's finals week on campus. Some students may have already left.

I have some family and friends at other Florida campuses and they are on finals week. Some have their kids back home already for winter break.
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You're right, Chin. My nephew is a Freshman at UF and it's finals week. He had to give up his ticket for tonight because he has a 4 hour exam review tonight for his Saturday final.
 
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Not sure why everyone is surprised at this line. Florida is good and metrics agree. I honestly thought we’d be somewhere around -3. -4.5 shows how good we are and what vegas thinks about how good we are.
 
Letsgohuskies11 said:
i mean, Maryland was undefeated going into a tough Wisconsin game on the road and the line was like -2 for Wisco. I feel like that's how this game is being looked at.
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Yeah that's what I'm getting at. KenPom line for that game was Maryland -1, Vegas made it Wiscon -1.5/-2. So a 3 point swing, about the same as ours. They're basically doubling the home court advantage.
 
auror said:
I'm worried. That line is lower than it should be, which means Vegas thinks Florida is better than their metrics.

Plus we have the top 10 team on the road against tournament quality unranked team thing working against us.
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Eh, at this rate it may go to 5 and Kenpom has us winning by 6. The spread is right in line with the metrics.

Not a surprise but everyone is taking UConn, 74% of the bets and money on UConn.
 
auror said:
Yeah that's what I'm getting at. KenPom line for that game was Maryland -1, Vegas made it Wiscon -1.5/-2. So a 3 point swing, about the same as ours. They're basically doubling the home court advantage.
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And Wisconsin ended up covering that game too fwiw.

It’s weird though because Florida also has no good wins and got smacked by WVU and lost to our old friend Gaffney and FAU at home. Nothing about their past games says this should be close, but Vegas.
 
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formerlurker said:
You're right, Chin. My nephew is a Freshman at UF and it's finals week. He had to give up his ticket for tonight because he has a 4 hour exam review tonight for his Saturday final.
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Kids nowadays. Much more dedicated than I ever was at UConn especially as a freshman. He must be pre-med.
 
was checking the team lines, Uconn team line is 73.5 and florida is around 69.5. Florida hasnt scored lower than 74 (in a loss) all season but you could argue UConn's superior defense could get them lower than 69.5, they've been avergaing much higher, similar than UConn. I feel like 73.5 feels right for us. I felt like we went on a big scoring drought last game where we should have scored and won by more. Not really sure how to play those if you choose to do some parlay or something
 
I think we'll need some signature games from Sanogo and Jackson- upperclassmen who have done it on the road before.
Jackson had a pretty good game @ WVU last season- 10 points on 4-5 shooting, 5 boards, 2 steals, 1 TO.
We do have so much depth that we can probably afford a few of the guys who aren't quite ready for a moment like this in a hostile environment. I think Karaban is mentally made of steel though, so I could see him rising to the occasion.
Alleyne has some good big game experience too. Had good games on the road last season against UNC, Clemson, NC St, G Tech. His minutes have gone down in recent games, but we might need him to step up this game.
We'll see what Newton is made of tonight too, this is sort of uncharted territory for him. He's due for a bounce back game. Was quiet against OK St and had trouble a little bit against the ISU defense.

If we lose, it's not the end of the world, and brings the team back down to earth heading into BE play. Good spot to be.
Having said that, I really like our chances tonight... especially if Lofton is either out or not 100%. Would like to see UF at full strength though to give us a proper test.

Haven't felt good on the road against a good P5 team in a long time.
 
jibsey said:
I don’t bet but the team is well rested and the only questions are 1. Are they on shooting tonight? 2. Will the refs screw us? We have 2 bigs to negate center foul trouble and that is a big deal and we have great defense. Happy with a win of any margin.
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You can’t be serious worrying about the refs going into a game.
 
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