Five questions that will define UConn-Baylor next season

[alexrgct]

In my view, you could say these are the five questions that define the 2012-13 season because I think everyone else is playing for the national semis, even in a single-elimination tournament format. I touched on some of these in another thread, but wanted to expand on it.

In no particular order:

1. How much better will Brittney Griner have had the opportunity to get over the course of the offseason?

I always said Geno's concerted effort to get Griner on the Olympic team spoke volumes to his integrity and desire to grow the game because he didn't need Griner to win Olympic gold and his college team would have to face her after having a unique opportunity to improve as a collegiate player. Well, due to an unfortunate family illness, Griner had to decline the possibility of being the 12th player on the team, and due to a longboarding injury, she has had less opportunity to work out and improve in other ways. Don't get me wrong- she could be "only" as good as she was last year and still be the most dominant player in college game by a country mile. But if she's appreciably better next season and stays healthy, Baylor is going to be really, really tough to beat.

2. Who wins the Hartley-Sims matchup?

I said this last season before UConn and Baylor played in December, and it's still true: in order to beat Baylor, you have to have one of the two best players on the floor that night. It's a given Griner will be the best player, but if Odyssey is #2, it's going to be a tall order to win, even if UConn could have #s 3-7.

Certainly, KML, Kelly, or maybe even one of the freshmen have a chance to be the #2 player on the floor (I think UConn's posts are going to be so focused on trying to contain Griner that it's unlikely any of them fit the bill). But if Bria can play like she did against Baylor last year, this time with some more help on offense, this changes everything. Tangentially, although I think it unlikely Stef is the #2 player against Baylor for the reason I stated already, if she can hit from 18+ feet with enough consistency to draw Griner out of the post on D, that gives other UConn players a better opportunity to be #2 on he floor.

3. How reliable will the UConn frosh be, and how reliable will UConn need them to be?

Normally, I would ask "how good will the incoming freshmen be?" This year, however, I am 100% confident that all three of them are ridiculously good. But even supremely talented freshmen are prone to consistency issues. I think these three in particular have a chance to be uniquely solid/reliable because a) they're so good, b) they have a ton of experience playing basketball at elite levels (and playing together), and c) they're all extremely mature and coachable. If they can be consistent and valuable against a top team like Baylor, never mind stars, watch out.

Of course, will UConn NEED them to be that good against Baylor? Well, that's a natural segue to another critical question, namely...

4. ...Can the eight returning UConn players from the 2011-12 UConn team actually be better, as a team, than the 11 players who made up the team last year?

With all due respect to Michala and Lauren, they weren't going to see any PT against Baylor this season, so the question is whether the eight returning players will improve enough to be better than they were last year PLUS make up for the departure of Tiffany Hayes.

I think it's a distinct possibility. KML was only a frosh and is a superstar in the making. Kiah and Banks have a ton of untapped potential. Bria and Stef both have plenty of room to grow. Caroline will be two years removed from her most recent injury and may have more to give physically. Kelly will likely be improved by virtue of not having to exert as much energy defending interior players this season. Buck may not be measurably better, but if she can play effective minutes against Griner again, she'll have more than earned that fifth scholarship year.

This is the single most important UConn-centric question for next season. We know the incoming recruiting class makes UConn better, but if the team is better than last year even without them, Baylor could be in trouble. How much trouble depends on your opinion regarding the final question:

5. Was Baylor really only five points better (at home, no less) than UConn last year?

Empirically, the result on the court was a five-point victory over UConn in Waco. However, basketball games don't always follow the most likely script; weird things happen in any given game. So was the difference between the two really that slim or close to it?

How critical is this question? Well, if UConn really was only slightly the lesser team, this changes everything. Home court is worth a few points at least, and UConn will be playing Baylor in Hartford and probably on a neutral court as well. And although Baylor certainly has the capacity to improve in their own right, I think UConn will be more improved over last season than will Baylor. Baylor needs to have a bigger head start than five points at home in my view. Otherwise, although they will start the 2012-13 season the unanimous #1 team in the land, they won't finish thusly.

 

[mets1090]

1. Who will win?

 

[alexrgct]

1. Who will win?

 

[msf22b]

I think we're actually underestimating Stewie, not to mention her two sidekicks

 

[VAMike23]

Are you asking, who will be The Decider? :-P

 

[MilfordHusky]

Nice work, as always!

I'd add the concern about consistency to the returning players. Bria was named an AA and played great against top teams. But she had a "slump." Kaleena was fabulous against Stanford and several other times. But she too had a slump. Stef was stellar late in the season, our best player in some games. But she was absent early in the season. Kelly took over games in the NCAAs. She too had weak games. Caroline kept us in the Louisville game, but struggled at times. Kiah was very good against Duke and late in the season, but was benched at times. We often do not run on all cylinders; but the returning players, at their best, may be able to win the NC without the frosh. How much have they improved, and how consistent will they be?

 

[doggydaddy]

1. How much better will Brittney Griner have had the opportunity to get over the course of the offseason?

By February? She wil have improved, but nt sure how much. She will still be a handful.

2. Who wins the Hartley-Sims matchup?

Other than inconsistency during the season, I have felt that Hartley is every bit as good as Sims. This year I would call this matchup even.

3. How reliable will the UConn frosh be, and how reliable will UConn need them to be?

They might be inconsistent during the season, but in a February game? I expect solid contributions.

4. Can the 8 returning players be better than last years 11 players?

Maybe. Lewis will be better and so will Hartley and Dolson. Stokes too.

5. Was Baylor really only five points better (at home, no less) than UConn last year?

Yes. Don't forget that UConn was up 11 in the second half.

 

[alexrgct]

Nice work, as always!

I'd add the concern about consistency to the returning players. Bria was named an AA and played great against top teams. But she had a "slump." Kaleena was fabulous against Stanford and several other times. But she too had a slump. Stef was stellar late in the season, our best player in some games. But she was absent early in the season. Kelly took over games in the NCAAs. She too had weak games. Caroline kept us in the Louisville game, but struggled at times. Kiah was very good against Duke and late in the season, but was benched at times. We often do not run on all cylinders; but the returning players, at their best, may be able to win the NC without the frosh. How much have they improved, and how consistent will they be?

I think that consistency is the key to whether the eight who return can be better than last year's team. KML hit a wall and then came back strong, finishing as the team's leading scorer. Stef didn't seem to put it together into season's end. Same with Kelly to extent; she seemed scared to shoot until she had to against ND in the BET championships. After that, she seemed much more assertive about scoring when she needed to. Bria's improvement is really twofold: being able to reach a higher level (which she did between her freshman and sophomore years), and staying at or near that level more frequently.

Every team has the capacity to be greater than the sum of its parts, equal to the sum of its parts, or less than the sum of its parts. Consistency will be a factor that drives what this UConn team is. If the answer is greater, I think they win it all this season.

 

[harlemmo]

Griner and Sims wil be markedly better particularly Griner given that hes been getting alot more reps shooting with her left hand and working on her leg strength. Sims is going to have a breakout year next year. Remember that she is playing with a chip on her shoulder after only being named to AP's second team All-American. She's probably the most competitive player in the league right now if you ask me. Hayden and Madden will both be better, and if Madden improves her shooting look out world. Not to mention Williams and Pope both have been working off-season on conditioning and Pope on her offfensive skills. Do not underestimate this team While I think Uconn will be formidable and this game is gonna be EPIC, I think Baylor will be just fine.

Personally, I think Prince is every bit as good as Stewart is, she just lacks the eye of tiger right now, and playing under Kim, she will develop it quickly. She has one of the smoothest strokes in the game, and her basketball IQ is of the charts. If you look at their stats from the world games right now, there's not much difference seperating the two in rebounds or points and I believe Prince has more steals. Granted, Stewart has been getting limited minutes for some odd reason, but when she is in the game she looks for her shot versus Prince, who hasn't developed that attack gear yet. Her only issue is that she seemss to rely on her jump shot more versus taking the ball to the hole and creating contact. Once she gets into the system, these things will be corrected and don't be surprised if she's starting by mid-season which makes Baylor that much tougher.


Mind you, Baylor came from behind by 11 at the half last year to beat Uconn by 5, and the year before that, Baylor only lost by one point to Uconn at Uconn's home court. With this talent level, I dont know if homecourt means muc of anything. It'll all boil down to who executes and who wants it more. I'm soooo looking forward to it

 

[Bestiarius]

I know it will never happen, but if it comes down to Baylor Uconn for the NC, I'd love to see a best of 3 games series. That would mitigate ref intrusion, someone having an unlucky day shooting or foul-wise and it would be great for the fans.

 

[msf22b]

It may very well be just that. UCONN wins at home and for the Title!

 

[connboy77]

Griner and Sims wil be markedly better particularly Griner given that hes been getting alot more reps shooting with her left hand and working on her leg strength. Sims is going to have a breakout year next year. Remember that she is playing with a chip on her shoulder after only being named to AP's second team All-American. She's probably the most competitive player in the league right now if you ask me. Hayden and Madden will both be better, and if Madden improves her shooting look out world. Not to mention Williams and Pope both have been working off-season on conditioning and Pope on her offfensive skills. Do not underestimate this team While I think Uconn will be formidable and this game is gonna be EPIC, I think Baylor will be just fine.

Personally, I think Prince is every bit as good as Stewart is, she just lacks the eye of tiger right now, and playing under Kim, she will develop it quickly. She has one of the smoothest strokes in the game, and her basketball IQ is of the charts. If you look at their stats from the world games right now, there's not much difference seperating the two in rebounds or points and I believe Prince has more steals. Granted, Stewart has been getting limited minutes for some odd reason, but when she is in the game she looks for her shot versus Prince, who hasn't developed that attack gear yet. Her only issue is that she seemss to rely on her jump shot more versus taking the ball to the hole and creating contact. Once she gets into the system, these things will be corrected and don't be surprised if she's starting by mid-season which makes Baylor that much tougher.


Mind you, Baylor came from behind by 11 at the half last year to beat Uconn by 5, and the year before that, Baylor only lost by one point to Uconn at Uconn's home court. With this talent level, I dont know if homecourt means muc of anything. It'll all boil down to who executes and who wants it more. I'm soooo looking forward to it

"Personally, I think Prince is every bit as good as Stewart is", What are you on drugs? Don't get me wrong, Prince is an excellent player, but Breanna Stewart is light years ahead of her. Breanna can play all five positions. Can prince do that? Stewart is national high school player of the year and has won just about every award possible in high school. I feel that Prince will be a fine player in college, but please don't embarass yourself by stating that she is as good as Stewart.

 

[alexrgct]

"Personally, I think Prince is every bit as good as Stewart is", What are you on drugs? Don't get me wrong, Prince is an excellent player, but Breanna Stewart is light years ahead of her. Breanna can play all five positions. Can prince do that? Stewart is national high school player of the year and has won just about every award possible in high school. I feel that Prince will be a fine player in college, but please don't embarass yourself by stating that she is as good as Stewart.

Yeah that was a ridiculous statement. Prince is a nice piece. Stewart was the consensus #1 and the most decorated player coming out of high school since...basically ever.

The rest of the post, though I didn't agree with it in its entirety by any means, was at least something I would expect a reasonable, optimistic fan to posit. The Prince comment was over the top.

 

[harlemmo]

"Personally, I think Prince is every bit as good as Stewart is", What are you on drugs? Don't get me wrong, Prince is an excellent player, but Breanna Stewart is light years ahead of her. Breanna can play all five positions. Can prince do that? Stewart is national high school player of the year and has won just about every award possible in high school. I feel that Prince will be a fine player in college, but please don't embarass yourself by stating that she is as good as Stewart.

Prince can play all five positions and she has done so. There were times were she played center in high school and did so quite effectively. Embarrass myself, I think not... I'm not taking anything away from Stewie who I think is amazing, but I think right now what separates Stewie from Prince right now is aggressiveness. Stewie doesn't shy away form taking over the game, putting a team on her back, pressures etc, and I think that its something Prince has to develop. All that aside, in terms of just basketball skills, I haven't seen anythin Bre can do that Prince couldn't do effectively and after watching the McDonalds All-Star game and the world championships, I'm convinced that her skill set is comparable and once she develops more fortitude and aggressiveness, she's going to be somethign to reckon with. I guess time will tell *shrugs*

 

[harlemmo]

Yeah that was a ridiculous statement. Prince is a nice piece. Stewart was the consensus #1 and the most decorated player coming out of high school since...basically ever.

The rest of the post, though I didn't agree with it in its entirety by any means, was at least something I would expect a reasonable, optimistic fan to posit. The Prince comment was over the top.

As I've always rankings are subjective. Kelsey Bone was the consensus #2 player in her class and look at her now (not comparing Stewie to Bone just using the example to illustrate how flawed rankings can be). Again, I'm not taking anything away from Stewie because I think she's a ridiculously great player especially at this level, but again I think Alexis is just scratching the surface in terms of potential and you'll see once Kim really gets her hands on her. I'm actually looking forward to seeing them guard each other in the game

 

[Husky68]

Griner and Sims wil be markedly better particularly Griner given that hes been getting alot more reps shooting with her left hand and working on her leg strength. Sims is going to have a breakout year next year. Remember that she is playing with a chip on her shoulder after only being named to AP's second team All-American. She's probably the most competitive player in the league right now if you ask me. Hayden and Madden will both be better, and if Madden improves her shooting look out world. Not to mention Williams and Pope both have been working off-season on conditioning and Pope on her offfensive skills. Do not underestimate this team While I think Uconn will be formidable and this game is gonna be EPIC, I think Baylor will be just fine.

Personally, I think Prince is every bit as good as Stewart is, she just lacks the eye of tiger right now, and playing under Kim, she will develop it quickly. She has one of the smoothest strokes in the game, and her basketball IQ is of the charts. If you look at their stats from the world games right now, there's not much difference seperating the two in rebounds or points and I believe Prince has more steals. Granted, Stewart has been getting limited minutes for some odd reason, but when she is in the game she looks for her shot versus Prince, who hasn't developed that attack gear yet. Her only issue is that she seemss to rely on her jump shot more versus taking the ball to the hole and creating contact. Once she gets into the system, these things will be corrected and don't be surprised if she's starting by mid-season which makes Baylor that much tougher.


Mind you, Baylor came from behind by 11 at the half last year to beat Uconn by 5, and the year before that, Baylor only lost by one point to Uconn at Uconn's home court. With this talent level, I dont know if homecourt means muc of anything. It'll all boil down to who executes and who wants it more. I'm soooo looking forward to it

Not many players get markedly better between junior and senior year. Many cases a cumulation of wear and tear and injuries and the just "4 years is a lot to do this college basketball thing" gets the senior year to not be a players best. DT had to drag her body through her senior year, Appel also. I didn't realize Griner needed to break her wrist to work on her leg strength. With her height and reach not sure taking lot of shots left handed is going to be a big deal, don't remember too many plays where said "if that chick could only shoot left handed she could have scoreds there".
So Sims, Pope, Madden and Hayden all have holes in their game and will be working on those holes this off season. Better hope no other team figures out that's the way to get better by working in the off season on holes in your game.
Prince every bit as good as Stewart is about as accurate as Dolson is every bit as good as Griner. Dolson is a better shooter and passer. Wait till you see her in better shape this year. She has been working on her leg strength and left hand.

 

[Icebear]

Prince can play all five positions and she has done so. There were times were she played center in high school and did so quite effectively. Embarrass myself, I think not... I'm not taking anything away from Stewie who I think is amazing, but I think right now what separates Stewie from Prince right now is aggressiveness. Stewie doesn't shy away form taking over the game, putting a team on her back, pressures etc, and I think that its something Prince has to develop. All that aside, in terms of just basketball skills, I haven't seen anythin Bre can do that Prince couldn't do effectively and after watching the McDonalds All-Star game and the world championships, I'm convinced that her skill set is comparable and once she develops more fortitude and aggressiveness, she's going to be somethign to reckon with. I guess time will tell *shrugs*

Yeah, you pretty much did embarass yourself. Every coach who has coached Stewart has heaped remarkable praise upon her; calling WNBA ready now, a kid who exceeds everything you might expect of her and more, etc. etc.

 

[connboy77]

Prince can play all five positions and she has done so. There were times were she played center in high school and did so quite effectively. Embarrass myself, I think not... I'm not taking anything away from Stewie who I think is amazing, but I think right now what separates Stewie from Prince right now is aggressiveness. Stewie doesn't shy away form taking over the game, putting a team on her back, pressures etc, and I think that its something Prince has to develop. All that aside, in terms of just basketball skills, I haven't seen anythin Bre can do that Prince couldn't do effectively and after watching the McDonalds All-Star game and the world championships, I'm convinced that her skill set is comparable and once she develops more fortitude and aggressiveness, she's going to be somethign to reckon with. I guess time will tell *shrugs*

As I said in my previous post, Breanna Stewart is light years ahead of Prince. If Prince was as good as Stewart, why then didn't she take some high school awards away from her? Breanna has alot more international experience and has proven herself over and over again. Geno has stated that Breanna Stewart may be when she is done the best UCONN player ever. Better then DT and Maya. Bre in all probability will be FOY in college. If Prince was so great, why wasn't she rated ahead of the three UCONN recruits? You need to stop embarassing yourself, I know your glad that Prince is going to Baylor, and you should be satisfied that she is an excellent player.

 

[Scotter]

Calling Prince just as as good as Stewart is silly, but I will admit that Prince worries me more than anyone else on Baylor's roster outside of Griner and Sims because of the combination of size, athleticism, and most of all shooting ability. She's a less predictable factor than the rest of the relatively non-threatening Baylor supporting cast.

 

[Vowelguy]

I would largely simplify it to: is Stewart as good as hyped? If she is, she provides a new dimension that will balance Griner's advantages. If not, Baylor can't be stopped.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Prince can play all five positions and she has done so. There were times were she played center in high school and did so quite effectively. Embarrass myself, I think not... I'm not taking anything away from Stewie who I think is amazing, but I think right now what separates Stewie from Prince right now is aggressiveness. Stewie doesn't shy away form taking over the game, putting a team on her back, pressures etc, and I think that its something Prince has to develop. All that aside, in terms of just basketball skills, I haven't seen anythin Bre can do that Prince couldn't do effectively and after watching the McDonalds All-Star game and the world championships, I'm convinced that her skill set is comparable and once she develops more fortitude and aggressiveness, she's going to be somethign to reckon with. I guess time will tell *shrugs*

I like Alexis Prince a lot...but you must be kidding...Bre can do things that Maya Moore can't do, no less Alexis Prince. Notice the 7'-1" wingspan...

 

[easttexastrash]

I love this debate. Reminds me of all the yip yap about EDD or Nneka being better than BG. Players like BG and Stewart are rare and incomparable.

Now, having said that, I do believe that Prince's perimeter skills and ball handling capabilities are going to surprise a lot of people and may be comparable to Stewart's. I also think the fact that she's a starter on this USA squad makes a case for her being top 5 in the class. She will be a major scoring threat. BG, Sims, Prince and Williams will all be capable of putting up big numbers. It will be a highly explosive offense. And then of course, there's Chandler. (-;

However, it's Stewart's length and skills around the basket that separate her from the rest of her class and most ahead of her. But to impact Griner, Stewart needs to bulk up quickly as BG is very likely going to come back much stronger. Griner, if she remains patient in the paint, will be able to back down any defender in the nation. BG vs Stewart will most likely resemble the FF Charles vs BG matchup we saw in Charles' senior season and BG's freshman season. Stewart will have some impact but won't be quite ready to handle the best post player in NCAA history.

 

[Vowelguy]

I love this debate. Reminds me of all the yip yap about EDD or Nneka being better than BG. Players like BG and Stewart are rare and incomparable.

However, it's Stewart's length and skills around the basket that separate her from the rest of her class and most ahead of her. But to impact Griner, Stewart needs to bulk up quickly as BG is very likely going to come back much stronger.

I dont expect Stewart to be better than Griner. She's not even our center anyway.

My point was that Stewart will create problems for defenses, similar to what Griner does. In that way, she can somewhat offset BG _indirectly_. And if BG does guard Stewart, she may be drawn away from the basket, which would be huge for UConn since it typically relies on a lot of easy baskets to score. BG had shut that down.

 

[doggydaddy]

I love this debate. Reminds me of all the yip yap about EDD or Nneka being better than BG. Players like BG and Stewart are rare and incomparable.

Now, having said that, I do believe that Prince's perimeter skills and ball handling capabilities are going to surprise a lot of people and may be comparable to Stewart's. I also think the fact that she's a starter on this USA squad makes a case for her being top 5 in the class. She will be a major scoring threat. BG, Sims, Prince and Williams will all be capable of putting up big numbers. It will be a highly explosive offense. And then of course, there's Chandler. (-;

However, it's Stewart's length and skills around the basket that separate her from the rest of her class and most ahead of her. But to impact Griner, Stewart needs to bulk up quickly as BG is very likely going to come back much stronger. Griner, if she remains patient in the paint, will be able to back down any defender in the nation. BG vs Stewart will most likely resemble the FF Charles vs BG matchup we saw in Charles' senior season and BG's freshman season. Stewart will have some impact but won't be quite ready to handle the best post player in NCAA history.

You are right about that....that was a lot of yip yap.....lol.

Prince has impressed me in this tournament. But not as much as Tuck....wow! Both Stewart and Tuck for 4 years? Unreal.

And Stewart will NOT be covering Griner. She won't have to bulk up.

 

[EricLA]

I think the debate is humorous. I like Prince's game a lot. top 5? Maybe. Top 10 probably. However, Jones, Loyd, Howard, Adams, Hollivay, Williams, Stafford, Fields, Beebe and Butler are NOT on this team, and all were rated ahead of Prince. And nobody on the planet, save for possibly a few delusional Baylor fans, put Prince anywhere near the same category as Stewart, never mind Tuck.

She's 16 per HG, 10 per Blue Star, and 9 per ASGR. Each service looks at players a little differently - some giving more or less emphasis on coachability, potential, or current skill set - but clearly she's going to be a terrific player for Baylor.

If we are talking about this year's Baylor team, she will have to beat out the plethora of players who are 3-5 years older than her in order to be an "impact" player during crunch time. I think it's much more likely that Doty sees more time on the bench in favor of Jefferson, Tuck or Stewart than Prince getting in front of Hayden or Madden (not sure about Washington this year)... and they also have Pope and Chandler as well.