Final Number One Seed

[choochoo]

But not as well as Baylor.

Your team is a one trick pony, Wait till you meet a great team on a neutral floor. Mulkey is a nut job and did not handle the Grinner years very well. I remember this quote from her " You better get us now because we will not loose for years" How did that work out for you?

 

[UcMiami]

ding, ding, ding. that is the correct answer. There is no difference between 1 or 2. Playing at home is more important, and being healthy.

There is a slight difference - As a two seed Stanford will have to play the worst #1 seed to get out of the region, as a one seed they have to play the worst #2 seed to get out of the region - so they are either getting the #4 or the #8 team in the committees eyes. While I am not sure there is a whole lot to choose between whoever the committee decides is the 4th best team and the 8th best team, presumably someone does. Beyond that regional final match-up good teams really shouldn't worry to much about the other teams in the bracket - any team can catch fire and any team can play a bad game, and predicting which ones will is impossible - just ask Baylor!

 

[ocoandasoc]

Make it simple. Based on out of conference wins, conference rating and standing, conference tourney performance, and bad losses, the #1 seeds should be UConn, ND, the Baylor/WV winner, and Tennessee.

#2 seeds should be Stanford, South Carolina, Louisville and either Duke or the Baylor/West Virginia loser.

#3 seeds would be either Duke or Baylor/West Virginia loser, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Kentucky

#4 seeds would be Penn State, Maryland, NC State and North Carolina (unless you feel you HAVE to put another Big 10 team in, in which case put Purdue, Michigan State and Iowa in a hat and pick one!)

Assuming that Baylor wins a close game tomorrow and West Virginia gets the #2 seed over Duke, here’s how the Regions could play out:

On the left side of the bracket…

Lincoln:
UConn
South Carolina
Nebraska
Maryland

Stanford:
Baylor
Stanford
Texas A&M
North Carolina

On the right side of the bracket…

South Bend:
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Kentucky
Penn State

Louisville:
Tennessee
Louisville
Duke
North Carolina State

Only North Carolina would have to travel three time zones. The only region with two #1-4 seeds from the same conference would be Louisville, and Duke and NC State could only wind up playing each other in the Region Final. (if you switch Duke and West Virginia, then the South Bend Region would have two ACC teams but they could only meet in the Region Final. Obviously, you can also flop Baylor and Stanford, or Tennessee and Louisville, or North Carolina/North Carolina State/Maryland without having to change anything else.

 

[cardfan]

There is a slight difference - As a two seed Stanford will have to play the worst #1 seed to get out of the region, as a one seed they have to play the worst #2 seed to get out of the region - so they are either getting the #4 or the #8 team in the committees eyes. While I am not sure there is a whole lot to choose between whoever the committee decides is the 4th best team and the 8th best team, presumably someone does. Beyond that regional final match-up good teams really shouldn't worry to much about the other teams in the bracket - any team can catch fire and any team can play a bad game, and predicting which ones will is impossible - just ask Baylor!

I completely agree it's about match-ups and which teams get hot, which is why I'm not so big on 1 vs 2 seed.

And I know all too well about bad match-ups, e.g., Minn and FSU beat Stanford at Maples when we hosted. In 2005 in KC, after Stanford beat UConn, we lost to MSU because it was bad match-up. In fact, on selection show that day down at Stanford, I chatted with a Stanford assistant, and she said MSU was the team they wanted to avoid the most because they could score at all 5 positions. In 2008 in Tampa, TN was a bad match up for Stanford, even though we beat them earlier that year, we didn't have size at the guard position.

I had a hunch (same gut) about Baylor losing early last yr. I never thought they had good chemistry late in the yr. I also predicted Baylor would lose to A&M in 2011 because beating the same team is hard. And of course, A&M was another bad match-up for Stanford.

 

[cardfan]

Make it simple. Based on out of conference wins, conference rating and standing, conference tourney performance, and bad losses, the #1 seeds should be UConn, ND, the Baylor/WV winner, and Tennessee.

#2 seeds should be Stanford, South Carolina, Louisville and either Duke or the Baylor/West Virginia loser.

#3 seeds would be either Duke or Baylor/West Virginia loser, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Kentucky

#4 seeds would be Penn State, Maryland, NC State and North Carolina (unless you feel you HAVE to put another Big 10 team in, in which case put Purdue, Michigan State and Iowa in a hat and pick one!)

Assuming that Baylor wins a close game tomorrow and West Virginia gets the #2 seed over Duke, here’s how the Regions could play out:

On the left side of the bracket…

Lincoln:
UConn
South Carolina
Nebraska
Maryland

Stanford:
Baylor
Stanford
Texas A&M
North Carolina

On the right side of the bracket…

South Bend:
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Kentucky
Penn State

Louisville:
Tennessee
Louisville
Duke
North Carolina State

Only North Carolina would have to travel three time zones. The only region with two #1-4 seeds from the same conference would be Louisville, and Duke and NC State could only wind up playing each other in the Region Final. (if you switch Duke and West Virginia, then the South Bend Region would have two ACC teams but they could only meet in the Region Final. Obviously, you can also flop Baylor and Stanford, or Tennessee and Louisville, or North Carolina/North Carolina State/Maryland without having to change anything else.

WVA lost 3, 1 to TX, 1 OSU and 1 to Baylor, but they beat no one and played weak sister schedule. Won reg conf. RPI 13, SOS 74. They are not getting 1 seed due to that.

TN lost at Stanford and to LSU, both good losses. Had one bad loss to unranked Vandy). Won their conf. tourney, but not reg conf. RPI 5, SOS 4.

Baylor has one bad loss to Kansas. Did not win reg conf. RPI 10, SOS 41

Stanford lost 3, 2 to unranked teams. Won reg. season conf. by a lot. RPI 3. SOS 11

Based on data, it's Stanford as last 4 seed, then Tn and of course UConn and ND.

 

[doggydaddy]

WVA lost 3, 1 to TX, 1 OSU and 1 to Baylor, but they beat no one and played weak sister schedule. Won reg conf. RPI 13, SOS 74. They are not getting 1 seed due to that.

TN lost at Stanford and to LSU, both good losses. Had one bad loss to unranked Vandy). Won their conf. tourney, but not reg conf. RPI 5, SOS 4.

Baylor has one bad loss to Kansas. Did not win reg conf. RPI 10, SOS 41

Stanford lost 3, 2 to unranked teams. Won reg. season conf. by a lot. RPI 3. SOS 11

Based on data, it's Stanford as last 4 seed, then Tn and of course UConn and ND.

No way that losing to LSU at home is a good loss. It's on par with the Vandy loss.

LSU lost 6 out of their last 7 and 8 out of their last 10.

 

[Tonyc]

Louisville is a one seed imo and UConn goes to Nebraska. I think Stanford keeps a one seed even with their USC loss. How many losses does Stanford have? LVills have? LVille has lost to UCOnn how many times. IMO LVille is a well balanced team and can shoot the trey as well as anybody. WVa is getting no recognition and imo should. They are a very well coached team. USF should make it too. Very well coached and plays tuff. JMO folks.

 

[triaddukefan]

I bet that Stanford still gets a #1 seed...

Nah

No way.

There has to be some kinda virtual boneyard cash that can be wagered.... or a virtual cheeseburger or something.

 

[rocky rococo]

There has to be some kinda virtual boneyard cash that can be wagered.... or a virtual cheeseburger or something.

You mean like burger-bitcoins?

 

[Phil]

Said it before Baylor 1 seed at Stanford 2 seed, Tennessee 1 seed at Louisville 2 seed, Notre Dame 1 seed with West Virginia 2 seed, UConn 1 seed in Lincoln with either Duke or Kentucky as 2 seed.

Looks promising except KY with UConn - that has happened often enough that the committee will avoid it.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

If WVU beats Baylor tonight they deserve the 4th #1 seed as behind UCONN & ND they are the hottest team in Div. I! Stanford doesn't deserve a #1 after USC loss! TN is in the discussion winning SEC Tourney! Baylor could if they beat WVU!
I still think that UCONN has to go to Lincoln!

 

[DobbsRover2]

WVA lost 3, 1 to TX, 1 OSU and 1 to Baylor, but they beat no one and played weak sister schedule. Won reg conf. RPI 13, SOS 74. They are not getting 1 seed due to that.

TN lost at Stanford and to LSU, both good losses. Had one bad loss to unranked Vandy). Won their conf. tourney, but not reg conf. RPI 5, SOS 4.

Baylor has one bad loss to Kansas. Did not win reg conf. RPI 10, SOS 41

Stanford lost 3, 2 to unranked teams. Won reg. season conf. by a lot. RPI 3. SOS 11

Based on data, it's Stanford as last 4 seed, then Tn and of course UConn and ND.

Stanford "lost to two unranked teams"? You're not just talking about an unranked team but a Washington team that is at a horrific #72 in Sagarin and way worse in vowelguy's favorite brain-dead index. WVU's SOS is not far behind Stanford's in Sagarin and is a decent #26 in Massey. Stanford has one decent road win, over Texas back in December, and at least WVU has the road win over Baylor and three other road wins against Sags Top 25 teams.

Stanford just has a squatty resume and now way should they be a #1 at this point.

 

[Phil]

As much as I am pulling for WVU, I can't see them as a one seed, even if they win.

 

[baggerbob]

As much as I am pulling for WVU, I can't see them as a one seed, even if they win.

Maybe not a 1 seed, but they shouldn't be shown by Charlie as trending down to a 3 seed, when they have been winning. They also unlike Stanford didn't get beaten before the conference final by a bad team. Charlie just doesn't want to take the time to completely re-evaluate his original matrix according to the current status of teams. But I do agree a 2 seed would be where they should be, win or lose.

 

[DobbsRover2]

As much as I am pulling for WVU, I can't see them as a one seed, even if they win.

The Eers current #10 rating in Sagarin is problematic. But if they beat Baylor they will finish with at least a share of the two B12 championships, the will have a 13 game winning streak going in the conference rated the toughest by Sagarin, and they would likely finish at least #5 in the Massey index with only Duke and Louisville among the other #1 contenders possibly ahead of them.

Not the worst credentials.

 

[Tonyc]

This is really a tuff pick. Stanford has the least amount of losses. WVa Baylor Louisville (will have 3 losses to UConn) Tenn all in the mix. SOS and who beat who and who lost to who will make a difference. I personally think LVille is the third best team in WCBB, followed by Baylor. Bottom line the two best teams in WCBB this season are UConn and ND and the brackets should be set up to make that happen. With 2 big names along with Nebraska the fans will selling out.

UConn/ Tenn @ Nebraska
ND/WVa
Louisville/South Carolina
Stanford/Baylor

These pairings imo will put fannies in the seats.

 

[Vowelguy]

My current thinking:

@Lou: UConn^ ., Kentucky^, Lou[@Ia], NCSt [@Pur]
@ND : ND[@LSU], SC[@IaSt], UNC^ ..., Penn St^
@NE : Tenness^, Baylor^ ., Neb[@Wa], Maryland^
@Stn: Stn[@LA], Duke^ ..., WV[@Tol], Tx A&M^

 

[DobbsRover2]

My current thinking:

@Lou: UConn^ ., Kentucky^, Lou[@Ia], NCSt [@Pur]
@ND : ND[@LSU], SC[@IaSt], UNC^ ..., Penn St^
@NE : Tenness^, Baylor^ ., Neb[@Wa], Maryland^
@Stn: Stn[@LA], Duke^ ..., WV[@Tol], Tx A&M^

Line up UConn and KY to meet for a third straight year as the #1 and #2 seed in their region? Yep that sounds like exactly what the committee should do. And line up Baylor and UTenn as the #1 and #2 seeds together for the third year in a row because, hey, they at least didn't meet in the E8 last season. And yeah, Louisville's obviously a #3 seed.

But the committee could never do anything creative and maybe switch it up a bit.

 

[Phil]

Line up UConn and KY to meet for a third straight year as the #1 and #2 seed in their region? Yep that sounds like exactly what the committee should do.

The most applicable rule:

If possible, rematches of previous yearsf tournament
games should be avoided in the first and second rounds.​

does not prohibit CT and KY in the same region, but I agree that they will attempt to avoid this.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The most applicable rule:

If possible, rematches of previous yearsf tournament
games should be avoided in the first and second rounds.​

does not prohibit CT and KY in the same region, but I agree that they will attempt to avoid this.

Obviously the committee does repeat the #1 and #2 seeds placements sometimes. To do it for the same pairs for three years in a row? I can't find any precedent for that every happening before. I guess anything is possible, but a few gaskets might be blown there and a lot of fans might think that the WCBB tourney is getting stale and boring.

 

[cardfan]

Stanford "lost to two unranked teams"? You're not just talking about an unranked team but a Washington team that is at a horrific #72 in Sagarin and way worse in vowelguy's favorite brain-dead index. WVU's SOS is not far behind Stanford's in Sagarin and is a decent #26 in Massey. Stanford has one decent road win, over Texas back in December, and at least WVU has the road win over Baylor and three other road wins against Sags Top 25 teams.

Stanford just has a squatty resume and now way should they be a #1 at this point.

Charlie said Stanford's 2 losses were not bad, especially since one was to winner of Pac 12 tourney. I could agree that Stanford is not playing well enough to be a 1 seed and I would rather see them as a 2 seed. However, their resume is better than Baylor, WVA or Duke for the last 1 seed.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Charlie said Stanford's 2 losses were not bad, especially since one was to winner of Pac 12 tourney. I could agree that Stanford is not playing well enough to be a 1 seed and I would rather see them as a 2 seed. However, their resume is better than Baylor, WVA or Duke for the last 1 seed.

Okay, well I guess I'll just have to take Charlie's word for it then. Hope he doesn't say that Rutgers' loss to #300+ UMass was not bad.

Creme is referring to the "official" definition of a bad loss as one to a team rate 100+, but he is not so clueless as to suggest that Stanford's loss to Washington was okay. He keeps pointing to brain-dead RPI for choices, and a loss to a team rated #84 there is "baaaaaaaaaaaaaaad to the bone," for a #1 seed candidate.

 

[BlueDevils]

Charlie said Stanford's 2 losses were not bad, especially since one was to winner of Pac 12 tourney. I could agree that Stanford is not playing well enough to be a 1 seed and I would rather see them as a 2 seed. However, their resume is better than Baylor, WVA or Duke for the last 1 seed.

debatable

 

[ed4ourgirls]

Let's face it. We have two No. 1 seeds and a whole bunch of No. 2 seeds.

I wish the committee good luck.

 

[triaddukefan]

If anyone still thinks Louisville deserves a #1 seed... they should be banned from watching this years tournament. No TV, No internet, No radio... heck.... banned from even reading the sports section of the newspaper.

 

[DobbsRover2]

If anyone still thinks Louisville deserves a #1 seed... they should be banned from watching this years tournament. No TV, No internet, No radio... heck.... banned from even reading the sports section of the newspaper.

Yeah, another big loss to UConn. At least Duke only lost by 22 at home instead of the huge amounts the Cards keep losing by. But give Lville a #5 seed like last year so that they have to earn that place in the NC again. Duke should get the customary #2 seed and ride it to the E8 before gracefully bowing out again.

 

[triaddukefan]

Yeah, another big loss to UConn. At least Duke only lost by 22 at home instead of the huge amounts the Cards keep losing by. But give Lville a #5 seed like last year so that they have to earn that place in the NC again. Duke should get the customary #2 seed and ride it to the E8 before gracefully bowing out again.

If Duke can make it to the Elite 8 after losing 4 PG's... One a 2 time all-american.... and another last year's ACC tournament MVP as a freshman..... that would be an accomplishment.

 

[DobbsRover2]

If Duke can make it to the Elite 8 after losing 4 PG's... One a 2 time all-american.... and another last year's ACC tournament MVP as a freshman..... that would be an accomplishment.

Certainly would. Not quite like UConn losing Sveta and Shea in 2001 and being one meltdown half short of an NC game, but sort of close.

 

[triaddukefan]

Certainly would. Not quite like UConn losing Sveta and Shea in 2001 and being one meltdown half short of an NC game, but sort of close.

Oh ok.... speaking of which.... I saw a participant of that game this weekend. ACC Legend Ruth Riley

 

[easttexastrash]

Charlie said Stanford's 2 losses were not bad, especially since one was to winner of Pac 12 tourney. I could agree that Stanford is not playing well enough to be a 1 seed and I would rather see them as a 2 seed. However, their resume is better than Baylor, WVA or Duke for the last 1 seed.

I agree. I think Stanford has a stronger case, although Baylor wrapped up its season with 2 top 20 wins. The KU loss was a really bad one for Baylor and may be the deciding factor against them.

But what does Stanford care? They will be at home anyway, either as a 1 or 2, which really means they are a 1 seed.