Final Number One Seed

[BlueDevils]

All this discussion simply means the committee will be excoriated no matter what their decisions. Great for women's bball...

What happens if kentucky beats tn?

I put Kentucky in the same conversation as UNC. No matter what at best they're a 2 seed. Too many bad losses. Alabama and two losses to Florida to name a few.

 

[ThisJustIn]

I put Kentucky in the same conversation as UNC. No matter what at best they're a 2 seed. Too many bad losses. Alabama and two losses to Florida to name a few.

Don't care about Kentucky... They 're underachieving roadkill. What happens to TN? Or should we wait for the big 12 to conclude?

 

[bballnut90]

Assuming Tennessee wins and Louisville loses to UCONN, Tennessee deserves the last #1 seed. Look at their body of work:
Quality wins:
vs. South Carolina (#2 seed)
@ North Carolina (#3 seed)
vs. Kentucky (#3 or #4 seed)
vs. Texas A&M (twice) (#3 or #4 seed)

Losses:
vs. Notre Dame (#1 seed)
@ Stanford (#1 seed)
vs. Kentucky (#3 or 4 seed)
vs. LSU (#8 or 9 seed)
@ Vanderbilt (#9 or 10 seed)

So in summary, 5 quality wins against top 4 seeds, 2 "good" losses, one neutral loss (Kentucky) and 2 bad losses. Also worth noting, Tennessee will have won their Conference Tournament and finished the season winning 13 of their last 14. Not a bad resume at all.

Now let's look at Louisville assuming they lose to UCONN in the AAC Championship
Quality wins:
None. Best wins are against LSU/Rutgers/Oklahoma/Florida State...all teams projected to be seeded 9, 10 or 11 in NCAA Tournament

Losses:
@ Kentucky (#3 or 4 seed)
vs. UCONN (3x)

No bad losses, but no good wins. You simply cannot give Louisville a #1 seed when they have done absolutely nothing to prove they belong in the conversation as one of the best teams in the nation. They lost all 4 of their games against top 20 teams (granted 3 are to UCONN, but still) and have 0 wins. They should not be in the conversation for a #1 seed unless they knock off Connecticut.


Baylor assuming they beat West Virginia:
Quality wins:
West Virginia twice (#2 or #3 seed)
Texas twice (#5 or 6 seed)
Oklahoma State three times (#5 or 6 seed)

Losses:
vs. Kentucky (#3 or 4 seed)
vs. UCONN (#1 seed)
vs. Kansas (13-19 overall record)
vs. West Virginia (#2 or 3 seed)

A solid resume. A terrible loss to Kansas (by 16 points no less) but they have throttled Kansas twice, and would avenge the loss to West Virginia. Compared to Tennessee, they lack as many quality wins but have one fewer loss. I'd pick Tennessee for the last #1 over Baylor, but wouldn't be upset if Baylor gets it.

Last candidate, West Virginia assuming they beat Baylor for the Big 12 crown:
Wins:
vs. Baylor twice (#2 seed)
vs. Texas two times (#5 or 6 seed)
vs. Oklahoma State two times (#5 or 6 seed)

Losses:
vs. Ohio State (17-18 overall record)
vs. Baylor (#2 seed)
@ Texas (#5 or 6 seed)

Not a bad resume. Honestly, I wouldn't be upset if they earned the last #1 over Tennessee should they beat Baylor for the Big 12 crown. The loss to Ohio State isn't very significant in my opinion because it was the very first game of the year. Besides that, a loss to Baylor and a close loss at Texas is nothing to sneer at. Besides that, two wins against Baylor, 2 against Texas, and 2 vs. Oklahoma State make for a solid resume. I don't think they have the talent to make the final four but I'd say they are a strong candidate for a #1 seed if they beat Baylor again (especially if Tenn loses.)



So in summary, I think here is how the seeding plays out:
If Tennessee beats Kentucky (big if): Tennessee gets a #1 unless Louisville upsets UCONn.
If Tennessee loses, the winner of Baylor/West Virginia gets the last #1 seed unless Louisville upsets UCONN
If Tennessee loses and both Baylor/West Virginia lose, and if Louisville loses to UCONN in AAC, toss up for last #1
If Louisville beats UCONN, they deserve a #1 seed.


This is going on the assumption that Duke will lose to North Carolina or Notre Dame (if they beat Notre Dame, they belong in this discusison) and that Stanford doesn't lose the Pac 12. If Stanford loses the Pac-12, it could open the door for 2 of Tennessee/Louisville/Baylor/West Virginia/Duke/South Carolina to nab a #1 seed.

 

[BlueDevils]

If Duke beats Notre Dame tomorrow they'll be the final number 1 seed... Diamond Deshields after the game says "At least they got one" Yes we did Diamond Yes we did.

 

[JoePgh]

I generally agree with Bballnut's analysis, but I would like to inject a new thought into this conversation:

One big reason why Louisville should NOT get a #1 seed is that giving them that seeding would be rewarding them for playing a cupcake - laden schedule. Don't use the AAC as an excuse -- Walz could have played an out - of - conference schedule similar to UConn's. I'm sure he would have had an easier time than Geno finding Top 20 opponents who would play him.

Putting such a heavy emphasis on avoiding bad losses sends the message that a Top 20 team's optimal scheduling algorithm is to play mostly teams that it can easily beat, and perhaps a few teams that are considered better. That minimizes the chance of bad losses. But it hardly leads to exciting or appealing basketball games. On the other hand, heaven forbid that it play teams at its own level or slightly below, because (GASP!) IT MIGHT LOSE. And those would be bad losses that would cost the team a favorable seed in the tournament.

Teams such as Tennessee and Duke that play solid schedules (in conference or out) should be rewarded for that, not punished.

 

[baggerbob]

The only way you don't give Louisville a number 1 seed is send the 4th number 1 to their region, so Tennessee, or Baylor can play there. The overall number 1 should be in Lincoln with Nebraska. Notre Dame hosts as 1 seed, Stanford hosts as 1 seed, Louisville hosts as top 2 seed, and last 1 seed plays there, Nebraska hosts as a 3 seed with UConn top 1 seed.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

I'm a Tennessee fan, but I think Baylor would deserve that final seed. The did play uconn very tough. there might be another 1 seed opening up. stanford is losing by 8 as type this

 

[UcMiami]

Still say a #1 seed should not have three losses to teams that are going to be seeded higher than #2 and especially not at home. One loss, OK, most teams have a bad night sometime during the year but three bad nights with two of them at home ... ugly. I say it comes down to Baylor/WVU whichever wins the Big12 or Louisville - and again ... for seeding purposes the committee can shift a team one seed higher or lower - and having screwed the pooch with the site selections they might as well give Louisville the #1 since they are already the home team in their region.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

Ok so its looking like a pretty shocking stanford loss. Im assuming this takes em out of 1 seed

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

That is a terrible loss for Stanford. South Carolina beat Southern Cal in LA by 20, earlier in the season. Nobody deserves the last 2 number 1 seeds. Stanford has 2 bad losses and Louisville has no outstanding wins.

 

[ASweet3781]

They almost lost to USC in LA a week ago, down 18.

No excuse to say USC snuck up on them.

I really don't know how they get a 1 seed with losses to Washington and USC but...?

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

They almost lost to USC in LA a week ago, down 18.

No excuse to say USC snuck up on them.

I really don't know how they get a 1 seed with losses to Washington and USC but...?

Honestly, no one really deserves the last 2 number 1 seeds. I think if Tennessee beats Kentucky tomorrow, they will get a 1 seed. Who the 4th will be, I don't know.

 

[Zorro]

It must be giving Charley the cold robbies!

 

[ThisJustIn]

I'm thinking the 62 should fight it out and ND and UCONN should play best of five over the three weekends of the tourney...

 

[wire chief]

It must be giving Charley the cold robbies!

Yeah, just when he needs a hot meal.

 

[triaddukefan]

Ok so its looking like a pretty shocking stanford loss. Im assuming this takes em out of 1 seed

I bet that Stanford still gets a #1 seed...

 

[wire chief]

I bet that Stanford still gets a #1 seed...

Nah

 

[ed4ourgirls]

As someone pointed out in another thread, even if Stanford doesn't get a 1 seed,
they'll still be a 2 at home playing a collection of teams only marginally more
difficult than the 1 seed will play.

As a 2, their road to the final four would not be much tougher than if they were
a 1.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Most everybody is overlooking WVU! Except for UCONN & ND WVU is the hottest team in the country! If they do beat Baylor in Big 12 finals they deserve a #1 seed! The problem is Stanford losing to USC in Semi's takes their #1 seed out! You should have:
UCONN #1 @ Lincoln
ND #1 @ ND
Stanford #2 @ Stanford / if TN wins SEC they're #1 @ Stanford
WVU or Baylor winner #1 @ L'ville

Duke can get a #1 seed f they beat ND not losing
If KY beats TN L'ville could be a #1 @ L'ville
that sends Baylor /WVU winner to Stanford as #1

YIKES!!!!!!!!!

 

[easttexastrash]

After watching Louisville today I want to petition for Baylor as a 1 or 2 seed at Louisville. USF is listed as last out of the tourney and Louisville beat them by 4. Lame.

 

[ASweet3781]

After watching Louisville today I want to petition for Baylor as a 1 or 2 seed at Louisville. USF is listed as last out of the tourney and Louisville beat them by 4. Lame.

Shouldn't you have been watching your own team who was playing the same exact time?

Louisville played a bad game and found a way to win at the end against a team fighting for it's NCAA life.

Perhaps we should judge Baylor on one game too. Like the Kansas loss.

 

[BlueDevils]

Shouldn't you have been watching your own team who was playing the same exact time?

Louisville played a bad game and found a way to win at the end against a team fighting for it's NCAA life.

Perhaps we should judge Baylor on one game too. Like the Kansas loss.

TODAY Baylor beat a RANKED Oklahoma state team and Louisville escaped an unranked team. There really shouldn't be an argument here.

 

[easttexastrash]

TODAY Baylor beat a RANKED Oklahoma state team and Louisville escaped an unranked team. There really shouldn't be an argument here.

Oh, but there will be....

 

[easttexastrash]

Louisville will lose by 30 tomorrow.

 

[easttexastrash]

Shouldn't you have been watching your own team who was playing the same exact time?

Louisville played a bad game and found a way to win at the end against a team fighting for it's NCAA life.

Perhaps we should judge Baylor on one game too. Like the Kansas loss.

That's the beauty if the "Previous Channel" button.