Final Four predictions

[MikeR01950]

I'm hoping for Washington over Syracuse just cause I really like there head coach. Syracuse turned me off when they refused to schedule a game for Stewie's homecoming game this year. I do enjoy there guard Peterson. Very well spoken and plays very hard. U can't go against a player like that. I believe and it's just my opinion we will get by Oregon State but it will be a close game if the Beavers bring there A game. They play smart they have good guards and a good point guard not to mention a huge inside presence. They can shoot the 3. But our defense and offense is nothing the Beavers have faced all season. So I'm going to say UCONN and Syracuse in the final. UCONN makes history and the seniors go out as the greatest class in the history off the game!!!

 

[LO TRADER]

I'm hoping for Washington over Syracuse just cause I really like there head coach. Syracuse turned me off when they refused to schedule a game for Stewie's homecoming game this year. I do enjoy there guard Peterson. Very well spoken and plays very hard. U can't go against a player like that. I believe and it's just my opinion we will get by Oregon State but it will be a close game if the Beavers bring there A game. They play smart they have good guards and a good point guard not to mention a huge inside presence. They can shoot the 3. But our defense and offense is nothing the Beavers have faced all season. So I'm going to say UCONN and Syracuse in the final. UCONN makes history and the seniors go out as the greatest class in the history off the game!!!

I would like to think UCONN has not faced a defense like OSU. But as I have pointed out on a few other threads, I have no idea how OSU will defend all 5 of the UCONN sharpshooters. Ruth Hamblin is a defensive liability when playing a 5 out offense. UCONN has 5 sharpshooters, and OSU does not have 5 perimeter defenders when Ruth Hamblin is in the game. You may see OSU coach pull Hamblin early and put in a 5th perimeter defender if UCONN either hits 3's early, or, converts fast breaks early in 1st quarter.

 

[EricLA]

Interestingly enough, LO Trader, Geno generally puts Morgan on the center when UCONN plays a team with a big. At 6'2", she's strong enough to defend even other strong bigs, but mobile enough to keep in front of them. Sometimes Stewie will do it as well, but I think it's an interesting dynamic for UCONN.

I haven't seen enough of Oregon State to really know their game, but one thing that stood out in the games I've seen is toughness. Just a group of very tough, skilled, blue collar players. Really, the kind of kids Geno enjoys coaching. It will be interesting to see how each coach prepares his team and how the "chess pieces" are deployed on the field of battle...

If Hamblin is in, it wouldn't surprise me to see State do some kind of the opposite of a box and 1, or leave Hamblin in the post in a "zone", but have the others play man to man. they would have to switch off with Ruth covering any player from UCONN who roamed into the post, so I'm not sure if it's too complex to work at this late in the season.

Or he might just let them go man and see how Oregon State does. If things start to get out of hand, pull Hamblin for a more mobile defender.

 

[LO TRADER]

Interestingly enough, LO Trader, Geno generally puts Morgan on the center when UCONN plays a team with a big. At 6'2", she's strong enough to defend even other strong bigs, but mobile enough to keep in front of them. Sometimes Stewie will do it as well, but I think it's an interesting dynamic for UCONN.

I haven't seen enough of Oregon State to really know their game, but one thing that stood out in the games I've seen is toughness. Just a group of very tough, skilled, blue collar players. Really, the kind of kids Geno enjoys coaching. It will be interesting to see how each coach prepares his team and how the "chess pieces" are deployed on the field of battle...

If Hamblin is in, it wouldn't surprise me to see State do some kind of the opposite of a box and 1, or leave Hamblin in the post in a "zone", but have the others play man to man. they would have to switch off with Ruth covering any player from UCONN who roamed into the post, so I'm not sure if it's too complex to work at this late in the season.

Or he might just let them go man and see how Oregon State does. If things start to get out of hand, pull Hamblin for a more mobile defender.

Thanks for the info on who will likely defend Ruth Hamblin. No doubt, Morgan will be a formidable defender. Key to defending Ruth, is to keep her from receiving the ball 2 feet from the hoop. As it turns out, if you let Ruth receive the ball inside of 2 feet from the hoop, she will miss the shot, or, not take the shot.

I am truly interested to see how OSU comes out defensively in Q1--OSU defense is the only chance OSU has against UCONN. I doubt OSU will make their 67 points/game scoring average. Whatever defensive formation OSU uses, OSU has to disrupt UCONN's offense, limit UCONN's offensive rebounds, and hopefully not turn over 19 times like in the Baylor game. Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[UcMiami]

Another thing that will be interesting to see play out - OSU uses a lot of single on ball screens and unlike most teams OSU has faced (or most teams in general) Uconn switches almost all the time even when it is a big screening for a guard because Stewart and Tuck are quick enough to stay in front of most guards. When Hamblin is setting the screen, I'll be curious to see how Uconn handles it - Trap, hedge and recover, or straight switch and try to switch quickly on whoever is left on Hamblin rolling toward the basket to get Tuck or Stewart back on her.

 

[McHuskyFan]

I'm hoping for Washington over Syracuse just cause I really like there head coach.

I'm hoping for Washington over 'Cuse, 'cuz I really like their assistant coaches, Adia Barnes (who played with Birdie on the Seattle Storm) and some kid from Vermont .... um, Morgan Valley ... plus I would really like an All-Husky final!

 

[MilfordHusky]

I like Washington better than Syracuse, but I'm officially neutral. I'm aware of bad mojo.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Syracuse played Washington much earlier this season in Las Vegas and won by four points while shooting a mere 29 per cent. Coach Bruno likes Washington in the rematch. I grew up in New York, have a number of friends who graduated from Syracuse, and am pulling for Q, so I like Syracuse on the neutral court. Syracuse's trainer better order extra ice for the training room because Osahor is going to move some folks out of the post tomorrow. I expect Washington to run the offense through Osahor and have her find shooters on the perimeter. Kaili McLaren has always been my favorite passing post player. H0pefully, Osahor does not have a game tomorrow that might have me changing my opinion. Still, Osahor is as good a passer from the post as there is in the game. Rebounds a little bit too.

The only hope Oregon State has against UConn is for UConn to bring its C game similar to the first half against Stanford in San Antonio. As much as I liked that 2010 team, this 2016 team might be better because there are fewer options in defending them. Oregon will, likely, try to slow the game down, reduce the number of UConn possessions and make it a low scoring game. UConn can counter with a full and/or half court pressure. Jumping out to a comfortable lead will also speed things up. Too much talent, too many weapons, too much experience, UConn comfortably.

 

[GoUconn7961]

I like Washington better than Syracuse, but I'm officially neutral. I'm aware of bad mojo.

Finally someone that understands the MOJO.

We are DOOMED!!! Doomed!!

Even in Geno's latest interview he said he was nervous...

 

[jdubct]

A close game by five points or so. Washington by a whisker.

 

[LO TRADER]

Don't know anything about Syracuse. What about their team/game makes them special? Even though OSU did not lose to UW in PAC12 play this year, I really thought UW gave OSU more challenge than any other team in PAC12. UW is playing care free right now. Dangerous team.

 

[LO TRADER]

Finally someone that understands the MOJO.

We are DOOMED!!! Doomed!!

Even in Geno's latest interview he said he was nervous...

Can you please post Geno's latest interview?

 

[Henry]

I would like to think UCONN has not faced a defense like OSU. But as I have pointed out on a few other threads, I have no idea how OSU will defend all 5 of the UCONN sharpshooters. Ruth Hamblin is a defensive liability when playing a 5 out offense. UCONN has 5 sharpshooters, and OSU does not have 5 perimeter defenders when Ruth Hamblin is in the game. You may see OSU coach pull Hamblin early and put in a 5th perimeter defender if UCONN either hits 3's early, or, converts fast breaks early in 1st quarter.

UCONN does not really have a style of offense. If Stewie is guarded on the perimeter she will try to move down low. If they try to post her up, she moves outside. Morgan posts or shoots from the perimeter. Moriah will shoot or upfake and drive. I'm sure they will go at Hamblin early and if she does not get in foul trouble, they will take more perimeter shots. What makes Oregon State's defense special? You said, we have not seen a defense like theirs. Considering we have played Notre Dame,South Carolina and Maryland, that seems surprising.

 

[magic]

I have watched OS several times. Moriah is going to cause Wiese fits. They run a lot of ball screens up top. No one does a better job than Moriah of staying connected to her man . Baylor did a terrible job.

 

[TitleTown]

Don't know anything about Syracuse. What about their team/game makes them special? Even though OSU did not lose to UW in PAC12 play this year, I really thought UW gave OSU more challenge than any other team in PAC12. UW is playing care free right now. Dangerous team.

IMHO UConn and OSU are by far the two best teams left in the tournament. I had not seen very many OSU games this year since they are on the west coast and most games are played late at night. I have started to watch tape on them and I am extremely impressed. They are a damn good basketball team that is very skilled, very well coached, and very disciplined.

 

[TitleTown]

I have watched OS several times. Moriah is going to cause Wiese fits. They run a lot of ball screens up top. No one does a better job than Moriah of staying connected to her man . Baylor did a terrible job.

I think Jefferson is going to guard Weisner who is 5' 10 and Nurse will guard Wiese who is 6'1.

 

[ochoopsfan]

I think there is a 50% chance the Huskies will win the Championship.

Just curious, is there a difference between a Connecticut Huskie and a Washington Huskie?

 

[FairView]

I think there is a 50% chance the Huskies will win the Championship.

Just curious, is there a difference between a Connecticut Huskie and a Washington Huskie?

For a Connecticut Husky the view is different every day.

 

[LO TRADER]

UCONN does not really have a style of offense. If Stewie is guarded on the perimeter she will try to move down low. If they try to post her up, she moves outside. Morgan posts or shoots from the perimeter. Moriah will shoot or upfake and drive. I'm sure they will go at Hamblin early and if she does not get in foul trouble, they will take more perimeter shots. What makes Oregon State's defense special? You said, we have not seen a defense like theirs. Considering we have played Notre Dame,South Carolina and Maryland, that seems surprising.

Henry, to be clear, I didn't say UCONN has not faced a defense like OSU's defense. I do agree with you that OSU will have a challenge guarding all 5 UCONN players (particularly if Ruth Hamblin is in the game). To answer your question on what makes OSU's defense special, I believe it is they are not focused on causing turn overs per se. OSU's defense is focused on staying in front of their offensive opponent first (i.e., defending with your feet). And, holding opponents to a single shot (solid defensive rebounding team). I have also observed that OSU perimeter defenders make a concerted effort to steer (dare) their offensive opponent to Ruth Hamblin in the low post. Once they arrive, Ruth changes their shot, or, blocks their shot. However, with UCONN, my concern is OSU will be playing 4 v 5, when Ruth is in the game, as all UCONN players are sharp shooters. OSU has not yet faced an opponent that has 5 tall/athletic sharp shooters who can also get their own shot 1 v 1.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

For a Connecticut Husky the view is different every day.

Too subtle for some? Unless you're the lead dog, the view never changes! You reminded me I'm missing my T shirt that says that very vividly.

 

[LO TRADER]

I think Jefferson is going to guard Weisner who is 5' 10 and Nurse will guard Wiese who is 6'1.

100% agree. This is exactly how I would match up with OSU. Nurse will focus on preventing Weise from passing over the top with her length. Weise has turned the ball over too much trying to throw over the top of a taller defender. Gabby Hanson will be the key to OSU's game, defensively, and offensively. Gabby is deceptively quick, and, a very solid ball handler. If Weise is not getting the job done starting the offense, Rueck will start the offense with Gabby Hanson, or, at least mix it up between Wiese and Hanson.

 

[Plebe]

Don't know anything about Syracuse. What about their team/game makes them special? Even though OSU did not lose to UW in PAC12 play this year, I really thought UW gave OSU more challenge than any other team in PAC12. UW is playing care free right now. Dangerous team.

Syracuse plays pressure defense, with lots of full-court pressing. They lead the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. On offense they shoot a ton of 3's. They are a guard-centered and usually play only 1 post (Briana or Bria Day) with 4 guards.

Their main statistical weakness is rebounding. However, the most shocking thing to me about their game against South Carolina was that they won the rebounding battle 47-42 (including a 24-15 edge on offensive rebounds), against a team that usually crushes their opponents on the boards. Syracuse did get outrebounded by Tennessee 46-34.

Syracuse doesn't shoot at a high percentage from 3-point range (30%), but the extra possessions they create via turnovers give them a cushion for a lower shooting efficiency. Their perimeter defense is good enough to hold their opponents to only 29% shooting on 3's.

The other thing that is really striking about Syracuse's last two games was their stellar performance down the stretch, outscoring SC 30-16 and TN 26-11 in the 4th quarter of each game. That's a staggering combined 56-27 in those 20 minutes. They are playing completely free and fearless. That makes them a dangerous opponent for anyone. When you're forcing turnovers and jacking up a ton of 3's, you have a puncher's chance in any game.

 

[magic]

I think Jefferson is going to guard Weisner who is 5' 10 and Nurse will guard Wiese who is 6'1.

While I certainly have no insight into Husky game plan, I would suspect that husky coaching staff would want to apply maximum pressure on ball in this game. Wiese likes to control the ball , and then her first go to player is usually Wiesner. Wiese has high dribble, and I have seen her lose the ball in tight situations. Hey, just my take. As Al Mcguire use to say, "cut of the head " the body dies.

 

[LO TRADER]

Just found this article: http://dailycampus.com/stories/2016...to-know-oregon-state-with-the-daily-barometer.

Please note in the article how important Gabby Hanson is too any chance of OSU having success in the game tomorrow.

 

[bags27]

Greatest possible respect for Al McGuire.