Final Four predictions

[Plebe]

100% agree. This is exactly how I would match up with OSU. Nurse will focus on preventing Weise from passing over the top with her length. Weise has turned the ball over too much trying to throw over the top of a taller defender. Gabby Hanson will be the key to OSU's game, defensively, and offensively. Gabby is deceptively quick, and, a very solid ball handler. If Weise is not getting the job done starting the offense, Rueck will start the offense with Gabby Hanson, or, at least mix it up between Wiese and Hanson.

Hanson is streaky as a shooter and, in my opinion, the X factor for OSU. She came through big in the Baylor game, and OSU will need her vs. UConn.

 

[Dillon77]

100% agree. This is exactly how I would match up with OSU. Nurse will focus on preventing Weise from passing over the top with her length. Weise has turned the ball over too much trying to throw over the top of a taller defender. Gabby Hanson will be the key to OSU's game, defensively, and offensively. Gabby is deceptively quick, and, a very solid ball handler. If Weise is not getting the job done starting the offense, Rueck will start the offense with Gabby Hanson, or, at least mix it up between Wiese and Hanson.

Agree with both you and Plebe about Gabby Hanson, who played very well against Notre Dame when you didn't have Weise. She had 18 pts on 7 of 13 shooting from the field. Also thought she played well on defense that game.

 

[Dillon77]

Syracuse plays pressure defense, with lots of full-court pressing. They lead the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. On offense they shoot a ton of 3's. They are a guard-centered and usually play only 1 post (Briana or Bria Day) with 4 guards.

Their main statistical weakness is rebounding. However, the most shocking thing to me about their game against South Carolina was that they won the rebounding battle 47-42 (including a 24-15 edge on offensive rebounds), against a team that usually crushes their opponents on the boards. Syracuse did get outrebounded by Tennessee 46-34.

Syracuse doesn't shoot at a high percentage from 3-point range (30%), but the extra possessions they create via turnovers give them a cushion for a lower shooting efficiency. Their perimeter defense is good enough to hold their opponents to only 29% shooting on 3's.

The other thing that is really striking about Syracuse's last two games was their stellar performance down the stretch, outscoring SC 30-16 and TN 26-11 in the 4th quarter of each game. That's a staggering combined 56-27 in those 20 minutes. They are playing completely free and fearless. That makes them a dangerous opponent for anyone. When you're forcing turnovers and jacking up a ton of 3's, you have a puncher's chance in any game.

Excellent summary. ND clobbered Syracuse during the regular season, 90-62, and won by 11 in the ACC championship game, 68-57. The modus operandi against them in both games was the same: beat the press down the middle quickly (Allen, Huffman) then pass to open wings for 3s or trailing cutters to the basket. Irish had a lot of 3s in the regular season game (Mabrey1 had 6) and Turner had a number of layups. In the second game, Cable had 6 threes and Turner had 18 total points.

This keeps Syracuse from running their transition game and prevented them from getting a lot of open looks at the arc. They shot 6-26 and 4-25 on 3s in those respective games. Weirdly, they out-rebounded the Irish in the blowout win while the Irish took them 42-29 in the ACC final, which was a lot closer.

 

[Tonyc]

Bottom line barring a miracle UConn will win and win big. UConn has not played any of the other FF teams this season and they have no idea what theyre in for. Defensively UConn will put the brakes on their offense no matter who they face. UConn knows their weakness's and will exploit them. No disrespect to any opponent but UConn will be up by 30 in both games. How much they win by will be determined by how Geno moves non starters into the lineup.

For OSU if they come out nervous it could be over quickly. UConn is not just another good team. UConn is a steamroller this season. They are developed beyond fundamentals and they don't let up for a second. They roll over opponents. Texas played great and lost by over 20. UConn imo didn't play their best game. This is going to be an experience for anyone UConn faces.

UConn is too quick and too big for any opponent in the FF. I say UConn will be up big and wont let up. All this of course barring injuries and major foul trouble.

UConn 88 OSU 56

 

[Henry]

Henry, to be clear, I didn't say UCONN has not faced a defense like OSU's defense. I do agree with you that OSU will have a challenge guarding all 5 UCONN players (particularly if Ruth Hamblin is in the game). To answer your question on what makes OSU's defense special, I believe it is they are not focused on causing turn overs per se. OSU's defense is focused on staying in front of their offensive opponent first (i.e., defending with your feet). And, holding opponents to a single shot (solid defensive rebounding team). I have also observed that OSU perimeter defenders make a concerted effort to steer (dare) their offensive opponent to Ruth Hamblin in the low post. Once they arrive, Ruth changes their shot, or, blocks their shot. However, with UCONN, my concern is OSU will be playing 4 v 5, when Ruth is in the game, as all UCONN players are sharp shooters. OSU has not yet faced an opponent that has 5 tall/athletic sharp shooters who can also get their own shot 1 v 1.

I wasn't arguing just making a point. Your posts have been spot on and interesting to read. I'm sure UCONN will try to go to the basket early and if that doesn't work they will try something else. The players who will go at Hamblin will be Stewie or Morgan Tuck. Moriah will not drive on a center but will go if she has a lane. UCONN sets screens so OS will have to fight over them. It could be a defensive battle but less so if we get a lead and force OS to play catch up.

 

[LO TRADER]

Bottom line barring a miracle UConn will win and win big. UConn has not played any of the other FF teams this season and they have no idea what theyre in for. Defensively UConn will put the brakes on their offense no matter who they face. UConn knows their weakness's and will exploit them. No disrespect to any opponent but UConn will be up by 30 in both games. How much they win by will be determined by how Geno moves non starters into the lineup.

For OSU if they come out nervous it could be over quickly. UConn is not just another good team. UConn is a steamroller this season. They are developed beyond fundamentals and they don't let up for a second. They roll over opponents. Texas played great and lost by over 20. UConn imo didn't play their best game. This is going to be an experience for anyone UConn faces.

UConn is too quick and too big for any opponent in the FF. I say UConn will be up big and wont let up. All this of course barring injuries and major foul trouble.

UConn 88 OSU 56

I'm not making any predictions about the score, but if OSU lets UCONN score in the 80's, well then, OSU coach will have some great film to show his players next year! Every serious OSU Basketball fan knows the UCONN machine, and how quickly the game can get away from UCONN's opponent. I don't think many East Coast fans have seen OSU (or PAC12) games, and realize what a dog fight each & every PAC12 game has been for any of the PAC12 teams this season. As Coach Rueck said today, he is not surprised at all that UW beat Maryland and Kentucky on their home floors. UW finished 5th in the PAC12. I believe this OSU squad is battle tested, and, if by some miracle the game is close at the end, OSU has been in so many close games, they know how to close. I will be the 1st to congratulate UCONN if they blow us out by 30, 20, 10, 1. More than anything, I want a competitive game tomorrow.

 

[NHFan]

Hoping for Syracuse vs UConn Championship game. This would be the appropriate senior "Home Coming" game for Stewart. This would provide her a chance to play in front her Syracuse friends, fans and family in the ultimate game after the Orange ducked the chance to play her this year. Go UConn!

 

[Oldbones]

 

[magic]

Bottom line barring a miracle UConn will win and win big. UConn has not played any of the other FF teams this season and they have no idea what theyre in for. Defensively UConn will put the brakes on their offense no matter who they face. UConn knows their weakness's and will exploit them. No disrespect to any opponent but UConn will be up by 30 in both games. How much they win by will be determined by how Geno moves non starters into the lineup.

For OSU if they come out nervous it could be over quickly. UConn is not just another good team. UConn is a steamroller this season. They are developed beyond fundamentals and they don't let up for a second. They roll over opponents. Texas played great and lost by over 20. UConn imo didn't play their best game. This is going to be an experience for anyone UConn faces.

UConn is too quick and too big for any opponent in the FF. I say UConn will be up big and wont let up. All this of course barring injuries and major foul trouble.

UConn 88 OSU 56

RIGHT ON TonyC !

 

[UcMiami]

I don't think many East Coast fans have seen OSU (or PAC12) games, and realize what a dog fight each & every PAC12 game has been for any of the PAC12 teams this season.

It's funny because that is exactly what the SEC has been saying for as long as I can remember, and what the B12 said for about 5 years, and then the NCAA would come around and with very few exceptions all these really tough teams would wilt. You would get Baylor and TN and once A&M and lately SC, but the rest would be long gone. Last year suddenly the Pac12 was everyones darling and again they wilted in the NCAAs ... So this year I just assumed the same thing was going to happen and BIG surprise, it looks like the Pac12 has finally 'grown up'. It is no longer Stanford and occasionally one other school - it is legitimate quality and tough minded teams.
I think it is great, and I just hope all of you can continue to build on what has been a coming out party. It looks good for the future with the recruiting and the coaching in place but it is often easier to rise up than it is to stay up. OSU specifically is losing a lot of leadership and quality after this year, but it sounds like your coach is really building a culture within the program that hopefully will keep things ticking over.

 

[GoUconn7961]

Can you please post Geno's latest interview?

It was just a short clip of him saying he was nervous.

 

[LO TRADER]

Watched the rerun of OSU vs USC game in PAC12 Tournament last night. Sadie Edwards sliced up the OSU defense. I also learned that she was a Huskie last year? Why did she leave UCONN? Made me nervous for game today as OSU turned over the ball way too much, and, as I said Sadie Edwards was impressive against usually stout OSU defense. And today OSU will play a team with 5 x Sadie Hawkins on the floor!

 

[bags27]

And today OSU will play a team with 5 x Sadie Hawkins on the floor!

Ya think our girls are going to ask your girls out on a date?

We cut Sadie Edwards: she wasn't nearly good enough even to consider for the practice squad at UConn. (Just kidding!: we miss her).

 

[UcMiami]

Watched the rerun of OSU vs USC game in PAC12 Tournament last night. Sadie Edwards sliced up the OSU defense. I also learned that she was a Huskie last year? Why did she leave UCONN? Made me nervous for game today as OSU turned over the ball way too much, and, as I said Sadie Edwards was impressive against usually stout OSU defense. And today OSU will play a team with 5 x Sadie Hawkins on the floor!

Sadie lasted all of about 3 months at Uconn - one never knows exactly why players transfer, but of the freshman she was seeing the least playing time and seemed to be struggling with the transition and level of competition within the team. Bottom line, the suspicion is that she felt she would get more court time and enjoy herself more at a different school. She had changed HS I think a couple of time as well so transferring may have been a less weighty decision for her than for other college kids.
She has done pretty well at USC so hopefully she is happy and fulfilled and made the right decision for her.