Feb 28 Committee Rankings | Page 8 | The Boneyard

Feb 28 Committee Rankings

Status
Not open for further replies.
RegisteredUconn said:
People seem to be misreading our cause for consternation. It isn't about Bridgeport. It's about being placed with the #1 overall seed. Many, including those with money (and I don't mean ticket buyers and hotdog munchers), don't think that, given our roster challenges, a #9 seed is reflective of our performance.
Expand ...
Vegas doesn’t either. Not by a long shot.
 
mbr33ct said:
I took the liberty of comparing UConn's data/info you provided to Louisville's, if one just went purely on the numbers they would come away with these two teams are very close to each other. We do know one is currently sitting at a #1 seed while the other is currently at #3. Also the Non-Conference data definitely is in favor of UConn over Louisville.

View attachment 73900
Expand ...

I don’t think you really looked at these as a comparison in depth or fairly. Let’s just look at their quad 1 top 30 wins (net rankings) and all losses.


UConn top 30 Wins:
Notre Dame (home) -#21
Creighton (home) - #30
Creighton (away) - #30
Tennessee (home) - #16

Louisville top 30 wins:
Michigan (home) - # 14
UConn (away) - #5
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Notre Dame (home) - #21
Notre Dame (away) - #21
Virginia Tech (home) - #11



UConn losses:
South Carolina (neutral) -#1
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Louisville (home) - #4
Oregon (away) - # 12
Villanova (home) - #77

Louisville losses:
Arizona (neutral) - #17
NC State (away) - #2
UNC (away) - #6

When comparing this, UConn’s best win is against a tumbling 16 Tennessee. They literally have beat nobody and they had games — South Carolina, Louisville, Oregon. I get this team has been injury plagued and it’s not their year thus far. And I know Paige is back and the team is better for having learned to play without her. But based on games, UConn doesn’t deserve to be a 1 or 2 seed. They haven’t beaten a single team that is even going to be seeded a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed. And yes, injuries played roles and they are better now. But many teams are better now. Oregon had their best players out, too, for half the season . Stanford had to adjust to a new guard/s and people still talk about how they aren’t scared of Stanford bc of guard play. In the meantime, guard play hasn’t come up once lately on their chat board —bc it’s no longer a problem for those who actually have watched their games. Arizona has had Cat Reese out which has brought down their net — otherwise Louisville’s worst loss would be to a top 10 team. So, all these teams are different that they were throughout the season. UConn does not and should not get a pass based on their record this year. I have watched them and they are a better team now that before, obviously. And I think they have a shot of upsetting a 2 seed (maybe a very slight chance of upsetting a 1), but even then, they had problems before Paige was out. So, they just have not shown anybody why they are deserving … it’s all an unknown. I get why people think they are better than a 3 seed, bc they have been playing better. But they still haven’t shown that against anybody of substance the whole darned season.

I could care less who is the 1,2, or 3 between UConn and Louisville…but you brought them up to compare. Comparing them side by side, UConn is not even close data wise.
 
HuskyNan said:
We need Villanova and DePaul to do well in the BEast tourney. That Quad 3 loss is a big ouch
Expand ...
Completely agree, plus both of those teams are extremely close to the NCAA cut line. DePaul IMO absolutely must beat Marquette, and Nova could really use a run to the final with a win over Creighton along the way.
 
Plebe said:
Completely agree, plus both of those teams are extremely close to the NCAA cut line. DePaul IMO absolutely must beat Marquette, and Nova could really use a run to the final with a win over Creighton along the way.
Expand ...
Sounds good, would love to see Nova again.
 
.-.
Pharos said:
I live in Stratford; love Uconn; wouldn't attend if Uconn not in Bridgeport regional; TV is a great way to watch a game I'm only indirectly or theoretically interested in. Bridgeport without Uconn will be dismal.
Expand ...

You could go boo anything Orange!
 
Reading through all these comments, I suggest UConn fans are doing too much hand wringing, as I mentioned earlier. Where it is now projected in the NCAA bracket is the consequence of what happened to the team because of the circumstances they had to navigate throughout the season. The most important thing is to be thankful that the team has come through whole and healthy and is in the early stages of playing very well with 9 solid rotation contributors, each one having gone through a period when they were needed to contribute and each one delivered in order to keep the season afloat. That will serve them all well.

Now, they have six games to improve farther, still floating from the uplifted spirits brought on by the final piece returning to the team. If they make full use of those six games going into the Regional Final, it doesn't make much difference which region they will play and that includes meeting SC at that stage. Right now, the team is focusing on preparing to fully determine its own Fate....so that winning or losing depends entirely on what they do, not what their opponents do. This is all they can control. And their 9 offers different kinds of offensive and defensive combinations to counter or gain advantage over any opponent.

If they achieve that and all stay healthy, I say, it doesn't matter how the bracket goes...and it will not matter what any opposing coach thinks (being unafraid of facing a healthy UConn team), but it matters what opposing players will think and feel when they finally face this version of UConn.
 
Last edited:
hoophuskee said:
I am stunned how Charlie could with a straight face not have UCONN jump Iowa State. I think it laughable to have Iowa State ahead of UCONN, and to have UCONN and SC in same region. . . But whatever. SC is getting burned if this happens regardless of future outcome.
Expand ...

hoophuskee said:
Charlie was on Nat'l TV making a point that iowa State should be the 2 seed, wasn't he? Is he is just the mouthpiece and he is not allowed to have an opinion if he disagrees?

He did disagree about Indiana though, didn't he? But he defended UCONN still being a 3, right?
Expand ...
Not sure why so many comments about Charlie Creme. Hasn't anyone heard about "click bait?" Charlie is paid based on bringing in readers and viewers. I doubt most of his management ever looks into his accuracy.
 
HopJim said:
Not sure why so many comments about Charlie Creme. Hasn't anyone heard about "click bait?" Charlie is paid based on bringing in readers and viewers. I doubt most of his management ever looks into his accuracy.
Expand ...
Charlie isn't as inaccurate as everyone implies. He can't read the committee's mind, hence his strong disagreements with them regarding Indiana and I think Tennessee. His placements get worse the further down the line you go, but I have always seen him be more accurate about who is in and seed lines than virtually any fans.

Again, he isn't all that inaccurate. The only thing that makes him of value to ESPN is that fact, based primarily on studying how the committee does things. If he babbled nonsense, no one would be listening. But like the folks that predict draft orders, he actually works very hard to be as accurate as he can be. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a crystal ball.
 
sometimes scenarios can be comical. For example Depaul has to win vs Uconn in the semis or they are done. If they were to do that they would get in the tournament, but that would mean Uconn would have 2 wins over a tournament team.
 
KnightBridgeAZ said:
Charlie isn't as inaccurate as everyone implies. He can't read the committee's mind, hence his strong disagreements with them regarding Indiana and I think Tennessee. His placements get worse the further down the line you go, but I have always seen him be more accurate about who is in and seed lines than virtually any fans.

Again, he isn't all that inaccurate. The only thing that makes him of value to ESPN is that fact, based primarily on studying how the committee does things. If he babbled nonsense, no one would be listening. But like the folks that predict draft orders, he actually works very hard to be as accurate as he can be. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a crystal ball.
Expand ...
Charlie Creme actually does what he does quite skillfully and "accurately", which is to apply the NCAA's own rules and precedents to predict what the bracket will be if the NCAA goes "by the book" (its own book).

The reason he never fully succeeds is that the NCAA never follows its own rules precisely. And you can't (with any fairness) blame Creme for not predicting exactly where it will deviate.

Having said that, he usually gets all but two or three teams right, and most of the seedings are close, but the lineups of the individual regions always vary significantly from what he predicts.
 
.-.
Why is Charlie Creme's accuracy an issue? There are two main components: the S-Curve and the Region Placement rules. The S-Curve should yield the same results for him and the Committee. If there is a difference, like Indiana and Tennessee, it is the Committee who got off the S-Curve and considered other factors to justify departing from the S-Curve. On those, Charlie definitely can't read their minds. In this case, who exactly is inaccurate? Waving the first rule (S-Curve) to justify a result they want is not a basis for establishing accuracy.....it may even be a result of a whim.

Now, regional placement is another process where subjective manipulation by the Committee often occurs.....again, no way to test accuracy when it includes reading the Committee's mind.

I wouldn't criticize Mr. Creme's accuracy or what he is doing.....it is his judgment using those non-quantitative rules against a Committee that debates among themselves: he could be more right in applying the rules but the Committee could easily come out with a different answer based on their internal discussions.
 
saywho said:
I don’t think you really looked at these as a comparison in depth or fairly. Let’s just look at their quad 1 top 30 wins (net rankings) and all losses.


UConn top 30 Wins:
Notre Dame (home) -#21
Creighton (home) - #30
Creighton (away) - #30
Tennessee (home) - #16

Louisville top 30 wins:
Michigan (home) - # 14
UConn (away) - #5
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Notre Dame (home) - #21
Notre Dame (away) - #21
Virginia Tech (home) - #11



UConn losses:
South Carolina (neutral) -#1
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Louisville (home) - #4
Oregon (away) - # 12
Villanova (home) - #77

Louisville losses:
Arizona (neutral) - #17
NC State (away) - #2
UNC (away) - #6

When comparing this, UConn’s best win is against a tumbling 16 Tennessee. They literally have beat nobody and they had games — South Carolina, Louisville, Oregon. I get this team has been injury plagued and it’s not their year thus far. And I know Paige is back and the team is better for having learned to play without her. But based on games, UConn doesn’t deserve to be a 1 or 2 seed. They haven’t beaten a single team that is even going to be seeded a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed. And yes, injuries played roles and they are better now. But many teams are better now. Oregon had their best players out, too, for half the season . Stanford had to adjust to a new guard/s and people still talk about how they aren’t scared of Stanford bc of guard play. In the meantime, guard play hasn’t come up once lately on their chat board —bc it’s no longer a problem for those who actually have watched their games. Arizona has had Cat Reese out which has brought down their net — otherwise Louisville’s worst loss would be to a top 10 team. So, all these teams are different that they were throughout the season. UConn does not and should not get a pass based on their record this year. I have watched them and they are a better team now that before, obviously. And I think they have a shot of upsetting a 2 seed (maybe a very slight chance of upsetting a 1), but even then, they had problems before Paige was out. So, they just have not shown anybody why they are deserving … it’s all an unknown. I get why people think they are better than a 3 seed, bc they have been playing better. But they still haven’t shown that against anybody of substance the whole darned season.

I could care less who is the 1,2, or 3 between UConn and Louisville…but you brought them up to compare. Comparing them side by side, UConn is not even close data wise.
Expand ...
You're right I didn't really dig deep in the data numbers, nor did the poster I was replying to, he/she went to WarrenNolan.com and copied the info same as I did, without really look in depth.

I appreciate the time and work you did though for this post. In the end just like you I don't really care where UConn gets seeded or placed, if they want to reach the NC game they need to win.
 
Alydar said:
Exactly. SCar is the top, easily, but it looks like only 2 SEC teams will host the 1st 2 rounds. In fact the SEC hasn't been this top heavy in a long time.

The SC specifically states that the NET is their analytic choice for seeding. There are other factors but the NET supply's the framework. The NET has UConn at 5, the best of the 2 seeds. If that holds it gives the committee a perfectly plausible reason to put them in Bridgeport. Or they could make them a 3 and send them to Wichita. Either way they get an AAC team in the E8. Whatever path they get is OK if they are healthy.
Expand ...

mbr33ct said:
I took the liberty of comparing UConn's data/info you provided to Louisville's, if one just went purely on the numbers they would come away with these two teams are very close to each other. We do know one is currently sitting at a #1 seed while the other is currently at #3. Also the Non-Conference data definitely is in favor of UConn over Louisville.

View attachment 73900
Expand ...
Since a Paigeless Uconn played Louisville to 5 points earlier this year, if you think PB is worth +5, I'd go with Uconn
 
hookshot said:
Since a Paigeless Uconn played Louisville to 5 points earlier this year, if you think PB is worth +5, I'd go with Uconn
Expand ...
Louisville one of the worst #1 seeds that I can recall. Got bullied by Arizona, were down in the 4th at home to an 11-18 Syracuse team, their only tough tests on the road were Unc and Nc st lost both. If Paige was healthy Uconn smokes Louisville. Indiana I would have upsetting Louisville as a #4 if they are healthy.
 
The bottom line is this: what can and will each team do NOW, (in March)?
Most of the "experts" are compiling their rankings based on what teams have done throughout the season, which is reasonable.
As many posters have stated, UCONN is a completely different, and better team than they were weeks ago.
I don't know IF the committee considers that fact, but I think they should.
 
MilfordHusky said:
I know these are subject to change, but I don’t see Louisville surviving Iowa and Baylor.
Expand ...

I think a lot will depend on which Iowa & Baylor team is playing that day. I've seen a lot of B1G games this month and I've seen all 4 of the top teams look both great and crappy. Or great-crappy-great-crappy. The NCAA's are going to be filled with upsets because of this. Catch a team like Iowa when they are on and you better be able to score 100. Or Iowa could go cold from outside and lose by 15. The steady teams will advance. Play great defense and be able to put up pts. Defense can keep you in every game and somewhere in the NCAA's every team has an offensive drought.
I looked at Massey and six of the top 7 teams are in the top 10 defensively, and only 3 of the top 7 offensively.
 
.-.
BlueSkyGLW said:
Reading through all these comments, I suggest UConn fans are doing too much hand wringing, as I mentioned earlier. Where it is now projected in the NCAA bracket is the consequence of what happened to the team because of the circumstances they had to navigate throughout the season. The most important thing is to be thankful that the team has come through whole and healthy and is in the early stages of playing very well with 9 solid rotation contributors, each one having gone through a period when they were needed to contribute and each one delivered in order to keep the season afloat. That will serve them all well.

Now, they have six games to improve farther, still floating from the uplifted spirits brought on by the final piece returning to the team. If they make full use of those six games going into the Regional Final, it doesn't make much difference which region they will play and that includes meeting SC at that stage. Right now, the team is focusing on preparing to fully determine its own Fate....so that winning or losing depends entirely on what they do, not what their opponents do. This is all they can control. And their 9 offers different kinds of offensive and defensive combinations to counter or gain advantage over any opponent.

If they achieve that and all stay healthy, I say, it doesn't matter how the bracket goes...and it will not matter what any opposing coach thinks (being unafraid of facing a healthy UConn team), but it matters what opposing players will think and feel when they finally face this version of UConn.
Expand ...
I think most here would agree with you. I have the beginnings of a smile of a spider contemplating a fly and not caring if the parlor is in Greensboro.
 
jchuskie said:
yep most overrated team in the country
Expand ...
jchuskie said:
Louisville one of the worst #1 seeds that I can recall. Got bullied by Arizona, were down in the 4th at home to an 11-18 Syracuse team, their only tough tests on the road were Unc and Nc st lost both. If Paige was healthy Uconn smokes Louisville. Indiana I would have upsetting Louisville as a #4 if they are healthy.
Expand ...
Didn't they also have a road game at Notre Dame recently? And weren't they up by like 50 in the first half? So who's the overrated team?
 
.-.
Huskee11 said:
Saw Iowa State for the first time last night... Number 6? I don`t get it.
Expand ...
Iowa State has a solid resume to-date to have warranted a Top-10 seed prior to last night's 2nd drubbing by Texas.

A time-tested vagary of sports competition is that a particular team is another team's bugaboo or nemesis, for whatever reason & regardless of transitive- or any chalk-based analysis. This seems to be the case with Texas for Iowa State.

Iowa State's problem isn't so much that they lost to a formidable & peaking Texas team twice, but rather by how badly they were beaten in both games. Hard to make a justifiable case for a high Tournament seed when you are whitewashed multiple times.
 
jchuskie said:
if people think Dawn Staley is scared of having Uconn in her bracket they don't know her. She could care less if they are in it, if they have to face off in the elite 8 then so be it, but people better not start overlooking Baylor. This team is on fire and Nalyssa Smith is one of the most unstoppable players in Wcbb.
Expand ...
But no one said (at least not me) that Dawn was scared, did they? And it does coaches no good to complain. But as fans we can. Nan had a whole thread about people complaining.
 
ConnMotors said:
It will get to a point as to is the selection committee is going to piss off. Will it be NC State having to possibly UConn in Bridgeport if it ends that way. Or are they going to piss of Dawn Staley by placing UConn in her bracket. We all know that Dawn is not a quiet person. She will make her comments known. Some of you might dislike her but I don't. She brings what the game needs. A women's side to Geno.

Plus, didn't Iowa State get their butts kicked last night at home by Baylor.

Come on committee get your act together here.
Expand ...
I'm with ya. And I'm fine with Dawn.

I am though very worried for her. Because once in the NCAA Tourney starts, eventually she might run into that matchup that features that darn Nike Basketball again. :p
 
Last edited:
HopJim said:
Not sure why so many comments about Charlie Creme. Hasn't anyone heard about "click bait?" Charlie is paid based on bringing in readers and viewers. I doubt most of his management ever looks into his accuracy.
Expand ...
It was on National TV.
 
sun said:
There's no cause to misread because the decision is not official yet.
After it's official then folks can get upset, but not yet.
Folks seem to want to jump the gun when they need to be more patient & at least wait for the final word.
Expand ...
Sun, I get your point, but UCONN fans should not get upset, even after the official placement is announced. I’m sure Geno will tell the girls to pack their bags for the journey, wherever they’re sent, even if the committee ranks them the 68th best team in the tourney.
Also, I do understand the gripes from my fellow Boneyarders about seeding, but our team hadn’t played exceptionally well during the middle of the regular season. Yes, Paige’s absence, amongst other injuries created a disturbance in the flow of things, but at least three of the games lost could’ve/should’ve been avoided. Now at this stage of the game, let’s not worry about all the outside noise. All the team has to do is to go play UCONN basketball, and win some games.
 
hoophuskee said:
I'm with ya. And I'm fine with Dawn.

I am though very worried for her. Because once in the NCAA Tourney starts, eventually she might run into that matchup that features that darn Nike Basketball again. :p
Expand ...
HH, you’re so :p
 
.-.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,336
Messages
4,565,421
Members
10,466
Latest member
agiglax


Top Bottom