Feb 28 Committee Rankings

[Plebe]

Emphatically agree! Michigan is the one who got screwed; they beat both Ohio State and Maryland twice and split with Iowa. They would have won the conference crown if they hadn't had that cancelled game with IL that wasn't made up. Ohio State had the benefit of a soft conference schedule.

As it pertains to the Big Ten landscape, last night's reveal is a valuable case in point in how:
(a) "winning" your conference does not guarantee you'll be the highest-seeded team in your conference;
(b) the committee is not fooled by unbalanced conference schedules;
(c) nonconference results also matter.

Ohio State "won" the Big Ten regular season title, but there are four Big Ten teams seeded ahead of them, for now.

 

[Vowelguy]

I agree, no reason to have them above Texas. The question is does that mean Texas is a 2

I disagree. B12 teams have a full round robin which means they all play the same 18 conference games. Against those 18 common opponents, Iowa St's performance is better than (or equal to depending on this week) Texas's. This is not 1 or 2 common opponents -- it's 18.

 

[mbr33ct]

UCONN Record​

Overall 22-5

• Home 11-1
• Road 8-2
• Neutral 3-2
• Conf 16-1
• Non Conf 6-4

Rankings / Strength of Schedule (SOS)​

• NET - 5
• RPI - 9
  (0.6460)
• Non-Conference
  RPI- 10
• SOS - 23
  (0.5884)
• Non-Conference
  SOS - 1

Quadrant Records - NET​

• Quadrant 1 (8-4)
• Quadrant 2 (6-0)
• Quadrant 3 (4-1)
• Quadrant 4 (4-0)

​

I took the liberty of comparing UConn's data/info you provided to Louisville's, if one just went purely on the numbers they would come away with these two teams are very close to each other. We do know one is currently sitting at a #1 seed while the other is currently at #3. Also the Non-Conference data definitely is in favor of UConn over Louisville.

 

[Glenn]

I disagree. B12 teams have a full round robin which means they all play the same 18 conference games. Against those 18 common opponents, Iowa St's performance is better than (or equal to depending on this week) Texas's. This is not 1 or 2 common opponents -- it's 18.

My logic is that
1. Texas won both games against isu by about 20 points
2. Texas lost by less to Baylor
3. Texas has a better ooc. Win against Stanford and a tie against TN. While ISU has a loss to LSU.
These dominate the rest of B12 schedule where Texas had a couple of close losses to OK and Kansas and a bad loss to Texas Tech.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

I took the liberty of comparing UConn's data/info you provided to Louisville's, if one just went purely on the numbers they would come away with these two teams are very close to each other. We do know one is currently sitting at a #1 seed while the other is currently at #3. Also the Non-Conference data definitely is in favor of UConn over Louisville.

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Main difference: one beat the other, whatever the circumstances may have been. Of course, we all think that given how that game played out, this healthy UConn team would roll over Louisville.....even if we are biased, safe to put money on that.

 

[DEpup]

I just think it is as simple as the committee holding back until the results of the BE tournament.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I have believed this for years. But with going to only 2 Super Regional sites the next 4 years (1 in the east and 1 in the west) and only one of the 8 sites being anywhere near the northeast (Albany in 2024) UConn is simply not going to be local much going forward.

I truthfully think UConn "should" be in Bridgeport as I understand the general rules, but I know, as others have said, that the multiple teams from certain conferences are messing it up.

As to whatever the final seeding number is - it is always based on past performance. The performance of UConn this season is what it was. They will not base it on the fact that UConn - regardless of seeding - is the favorite to make it to the final four for almost everyone.

People seem to be misreading our cause for consternation. It isn't about Bridgeport. It's about being placed with the #1 overall seed. Many, including those with money (and I don't mean ticket buyers and hotdog munchers), don't think that, given our roster challenges, a #9 seed is reflective of our performance.

 

[Monte]

People seem to be misreading our cause for consternation. It isn't about Bridgeport. It's about being placed with the #1 overall seed. Many, including those with money (and I don't mean ticket buyers and hotdog munchers), don't think that, given our roster challenges, a #9 seed is reflective of our performance.

What difference does it make who you play, or when you play them? If you are the best team, it does not matter who you play, or when you play them. I would not want to win the tourney saying: "We got lucky and drew the easiest teams."

 

[HuskyNan]

Counting injuries usually means you wont get dinged as much for bad losses.
UConn's problem is the lack of quality wins -- it's Tenn, ND, Creighton at home, and Creighton on the road.
There should be some adjustment for the fact that this is a different team when healthy -- and you need to have balanced brackets -- but that requires some speculation, which the committee tries to avoid.

We need Villanova and DePaul to do well in the BEast tourney. That Quad 3 loss is a big ouch

 

[sun]

People seem to be misreading our cause for consternation. It isn't about Bridgeport. It's about being placed with the #1 overall seed. Many, including those with money (and I don't mean ticket buyers and hotdog munchers), don't think that, given our roster challenges, a #9 seed is reflective of our performance.

There's no cause to misread because the decision is not official yet.
After it's official then folks can get upset, but not yet.
Folks seem to want to jump the gun when they need to be more patient & at least wait for the final word.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

We need Villanova and DePaul to do well in the BEast tourney. That Quad 3 loss is a big ouch

That loss was a big ouch in more ways than one.

 

[darkstar1]

People seem to be misreading our cause for consternation. It isn't about Bridgeport. It's about being placed with the #1 overall seed. Many, including those with money (and I don't mean ticket buyers and hotdog munchers), don't think that, given our roster challenges, a #9 seed is reflective of our performance.

Vegas doesn’t either. Not by a long shot.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Vegas doesn’t either. Not by a long shot.

That's who I meant by "those with money."

 

[saywho]

I took the liberty of comparing UConn's data/info you provided to Louisville's, if one just went purely on the numbers they would come away with these two teams are very close to each other. We do know one is currently sitting at a #1 seed while the other is currently at #3. Also the Non-Conference data definitely is in favor of UConn over Louisville.

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I don’t think you really looked at these as a comparison in depth or fairly. Let’s just look at their quad 1 top 30 wins (net rankings) and all losses.


UConn top 30 Wins:
Notre Dame (home) -#21
Creighton (home) - #30
Creighton (away) - #30
Tennessee (home) - #16

Louisville top 30 wins:
Michigan (home) - # 14
UConn (away) - #5
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Notre Dame (home) - #21
Notre Dame (away) - #21
Virginia Tech (home) - #11



UConn losses:
South Carolina (neutral) -#1
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Louisville (home) - #4
Oregon (away) - # 12
Villanova (home) - #77

Louisville losses:
Arizona (neutral) - #17
NC State (away) - #2
UNC (away) - #6

When comparing this, UConn’s best win is against a tumbling 16 Tennessee. They literally have beat nobody and they had games — South Carolina, Louisville, Oregon. I get this team has been injury plagued and it’s not their year thus far. And I know Paige is back and the team is better for having learned to play without her. But based on games, UConn doesn’t deserve to be a 1 or 2 seed. They haven’t beaten a single team that is even going to be seeded a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed. And yes, injuries played roles and they are better now. But many teams are better now. Oregon had their best players out, too, for half the season . Stanford had to adjust to a new guard/s and people still talk about how they aren’t scared of Stanford bc of guard play. In the meantime, guard play hasn’t come up once lately on their chat board —bc it’s no longer a problem for those who actually have watched their games. Arizona has had Cat Reese out which has brought down their net — otherwise Louisville’s worst loss would be to a top 10 team. So, all these teams are different that they were throughout the season. UConn does not and should not get a pass based on their record this year. I have watched them and they are a better team now that before, obviously. And I think they have a shot of upsetting a 2 seed (maybe a very slight chance of upsetting a 1), but even then, they had problems before Paige was out. So, they just have not shown anybody why they are deserving … it’s all an unknown. I get why people think they are better than a 3 seed, bc they have been playing better. But they still haven’t shown that against anybody of substance the whole darned season.

I could care less who is the 1,2, or 3 between UConn and Louisville…but you brought them up to compare. Comparing them side by side, UConn is not even close data wise.

 

[Plebe]

We need Villanova and DePaul to do well in the BEast tourney. That Quad 3 loss is a big ouch

Completely agree, plus both of those teams are extremely close to the NCAA cut line. DePaul IMO absolutely must beat Marquette, and Nova could really use a run to the final with a win over Creighton along the way.

 

[Bald Husky]

Completely agree, plus both of those teams are extremely close to the NCAA cut line. DePaul IMO absolutely must beat Marquette, and Nova could really use a run to the final with a win over Creighton along the way.

Sounds good, would love to see Nova again.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I live in Stratford; love Uconn; wouldn't attend if Uconn not in Bridgeport regional; TV is a great way to watch a game I'm only indirectly or theoretically interested in. Bridgeport without Uconn will be dismal.

You could go boo anything Orange!

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

Reading through all these comments, I suggest UConn fans are doing too much hand wringing, as I mentioned earlier. Where it is now projected in the NCAA bracket is the consequence of what happened to the team because of the circumstances they had to navigate throughout the season. The most important thing is to be thankful that the team has come through whole and healthy and is in the early stages of playing very well with 9 solid rotation contributors, each one having gone through a period when they were needed to contribute and each one delivered in order to keep the season afloat. That will serve them all well.

Now, they have six games to improve farther, still floating from the uplifted spirits brought on by the final piece returning to the team. If they make full use of those six games going into the Regional Final, it doesn't make much difference which region they will play and that includes meeting SC at that stage. Right now, the team is focusing on preparing to fully determine its own Fate....so that winning or losing depends entirely on what they do, not what their opponents do. This is all they can control. And their 9 offers different kinds of offensive and defensive combinations to counter or gain advantage over any opponent.

If they achieve that and all stay healthy, I say, it doesn't matter how the bracket goes...and it will not matter what any opposing coach thinks (being unafraid of facing a healthy UConn team), but it matters what opposing players will think and feel when they finally face this version of UConn.

 

[HopJim]

I am stunned how Charlie could with a straight face not have UCONN jump Iowa State. I think it laughable to have Iowa State ahead of UCONN, and to have UCONN and SC in same region. . . But whatever. SC is getting burned if this happens regardless of future outcome.

Charlie was on Nat'l TV making a point that iowa State should be the 2 seed, wasn't he? Is he is just the mouthpiece and he is not allowed to have an opinion if he disagrees?

He did disagree about Indiana though, didn't he? But he defended UCONN still being a 3, right?

Not sure why so many comments about Charlie Creme. Hasn't anyone heard about "click bait?" Charlie is paid based on bringing in readers and viewers. I doubt most of his management ever looks into his accuracy.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Not sure why so many comments about Charlie Creme. Hasn't anyone heard about "click bait?" Charlie is paid based on bringing in readers and viewers. I doubt most of his management ever looks into his accuracy.

Charlie isn't as inaccurate as everyone implies. He can't read the committee's mind, hence his strong disagreements with them regarding Indiana and I think Tennessee. His placements get worse the further down the line you go, but I have always seen him be more accurate about who is in and seed lines than virtually any fans.

Again, he isn't all that inaccurate. The only thing that makes him of value to ESPN is that fact, based primarily on studying how the committee does things. If he babbled nonsense, no one would be listening. But like the folks that predict draft orders, he actually works very hard to be as accurate as he can be. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a crystal ball.

 

[jchusky]

sometimes scenarios can be comical. For example Depaul has to win vs Uconn in the semis or they are done. If they were to do that they would get in the tournament, but that would mean Uconn would have 2 wins over a tournament team.

 

[JoePgh]

Charlie isn't as inaccurate as everyone implies. He can't read the committee's mind, hence his strong disagreements with them regarding Indiana and I think Tennessee. His placements get worse the further down the line you go, but I have always seen him be more accurate about who is in and seed lines than virtually any fans.

Again, he isn't all that inaccurate. The only thing that makes him of value to ESPN is that fact, based primarily on studying how the committee does things. If he babbled nonsense, no one would be listening. But like the folks that predict draft orders, he actually works very hard to be as accurate as he can be. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a crystal ball.

Charlie Creme actually does what he does quite skillfully and "accurately", which is to apply the NCAA's own rules and precedents to predict what the bracket will be if the NCAA goes "by the book" (its own book).

The reason he never fully succeeds is that the NCAA never follows its own rules precisely. And you can't (with any fairness) blame Creme for not predicting exactly where it will deviate.

Having said that, he usually gets all but two or three teams right, and most of the seedings are close, but the lineups of the individual regions always vary significantly from what he predicts.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

Why is Charlie Creme's accuracy an issue? There are two main components: the S-Curve and the Region Placement rules. The S-Curve should yield the same results for him and the Committee. If there is a difference, like Indiana and Tennessee, it is the Committee who got off the S-Curve and considered other factors to justify departing from the S-Curve. On those, Charlie definitely can't read their minds. In this case, who exactly is inaccurate? Waving the first rule (S-Curve) to justify a result they want is not a basis for establishing accuracy.....it may even be a result of a whim.

Now, regional placement is another process where subjective manipulation by the Committee often occurs.....again, no way to test accuracy when it includes reading the Committee's mind.

I wouldn't criticize Mr. Creme's accuracy or what he is doing.....it is his judgment using those non-quantitative rules against a Committee that debates among themselves: he could be more right in applying the rules but the Committee could easily come out with a different answer based on their internal discussions.

 

[mbr33ct]

I don’t think you really looked at these as a comparison in depth or fairly. Let’s just look at their quad 1 top 30 wins (net rankings) and all losses.


UConn top 30 Wins:
Notre Dame (home) -#21
Creighton (home) - #30
Creighton (away) - #30
Tennessee (home) - #16

Louisville top 30 wins:
Michigan (home) - # 14
UConn (away) - #5
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Notre Dame (home) - #21
Notre Dame (away) - #21
Virginia Tech (home) - #11



UConn losses:
South Carolina (neutral) -#1
Georgia Tech (away) - #26
Louisville (home) - #4
Oregon (away) - # 12
Villanova (home) - #77

Louisville losses:
Arizona (neutral) - #17
NC State (away) - #2
UNC (away) - #6

When comparing this, UConn’s best win is against a tumbling 16 Tennessee. They literally have beat nobody and they had games — South Carolina, Louisville, Oregon. I get this team has been injury plagued and it’s not their year thus far. And I know Paige is back and the team is better for having learned to play without her. But based on games, UConn doesn’t deserve to be a 1 or 2 seed. They haven’t beaten a single team that is even going to be seeded a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed. And yes, injuries played roles and they are better now. But many teams are better now. Oregon had their best players out, too, for half the season . Stanford had to adjust to a new guard/s and people still talk about how they aren’t scared of Stanford bc of guard play. In the meantime, guard play hasn’t come up once lately on their chat board —bc it’s no longer a problem for those who actually have watched their games. Arizona has had Cat Reese out which has brought down their net — otherwise Louisville’s worst loss would be to a top 10 team. So, all these teams are different that they were throughout the season. UConn does not and should not get a pass based on their record this year. I have watched them and they are a better team now that before, obviously. And I think they have a shot of upsetting a 2 seed (maybe a very slight chance of upsetting a 1), but even then, they had problems before Paige was out. So, they just have not shown anybody why they are deserving … it’s all an unknown. I get why people think they are better than a 3 seed, bc they have been playing better. But they still haven’t shown that against anybody of substance the whole darned season.

I could care less who is the 1,2, or 3 between UConn and Louisville…but you brought them up to compare. Comparing them side by side, UConn is not even close data wise.

You're right I didn't really dig deep in the data numbers, nor did the poster I was replying to, he/she went to WarrenNolan.com and copied the info same as I did, without really look in depth.

I appreciate the time and work you did though for this post. In the end just like you I don't really care where UConn gets seeded or placed, if they want to reach the NC game they need to win.

 

[hookshot]

Exactly. SCar is the top, easily, but it looks like only 2 SEC teams will host the 1st 2 rounds. In fact the SEC hasn't been this top heavy in a long time.

The SC specifically states that the NET is their analytic choice for seeding. There are other factors but the NET supply's the framework. The NET has UConn at 5, the best of the 2 seeds. If that holds it gives the committee a perfectly plausible reason to put them in Bridgeport. Or they could make them a 3 and send them to Wichita. Either way they get an AAC team in the E8. Whatever path they get is OK if they are healthy.

I took the liberty of comparing UConn's data/info you provided to Louisville's, if one just went purely on the numbers they would come away with these two teams are very close to each other. We do know one is currently sitting at a #1 seed while the other is currently at #3. Also the Non-Conference data definitely is in favor of UConn over Louisville.

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Since a Paigeless Uconn played Louisville to 5 points earlier this year, if you think PB is worth +5, I'd go with Uconn