Feb 28 Committee Rankings | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Feb 28 Committee Rankings

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I still don't completely get why the committee and Creme have Iowa State so highly-ranked. They only have 5 Q1 wins; that appears to be the lowest of anyone fighting for a #2 national seed. Best win is Baylor; no highly-ranked non-conference wins.
B12 will likely have 4 teams in the top 16 and Iowa St is tied for 1st in that conference, which plays a full round robin. That's high performance over an extended period of time. And 1 (or 2?) of their 3 conf losses were without Joens.
 

southie

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B12 will likely have 4 teams in the top 16 and Iowa St is tied for 1st in that conference, which plays a full round robin. That's high performance over an extended period of time. And 1 (or 2?) of their 3 conf losses were without Joens.
Just one (at home in an 18 point loss to Texas). Other 2 losses were by 25 and 26 points at Baylor and Texas. And, lost at LSU. 2 wins against Oklahoma, and a win against South Dakota is what they have to hang their hat on.

Lots of teams have had to play certain games without great players due to injuries or COVID protocols.
 
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Charlie says we're the 3 seed in Greensboro. South Carolina-UConn for the final four.
 

BRS24

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What I find interesting on that list, of the top 15 ranked NET teams, only #1 South Carolina and #15 LSU are ranked. Considering Charlie has 9 teams from the SEC on the brackets I would have expected a couple more SEC teams on that list.
What I found interesting, is that although you cannot apples to apples conference competition and overall records, projecting 9 SEC teams and only 2 BE teams is a stretch for me. That means that the bottom 3 SEC are at even or losing conf record, and overall, 15-18 wins, where the next 4 BE after UConn have 20+ wins and a winning conference record.

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Plebe

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A reminder of how teams have fared since the last reveal:

2/10 reveal​

Wins since 2/10​
Losses since 2/10​
1. South Carolinaat Kentucky, at Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, at TAMU, at Ole Miss--
2. StanfordUtah, Colorado, at Oregon St, at Oregon, Washington St, Washington--
3. NC Stateat Boston C., at Duke, Wake Forest, Syracuse, at Virginia Tech--
4. LouisvilleNotre Dame, Virginia Tech, at Pitt, at Notre Dameat North Carolina
5. MichiganMaryland, Michigan Stat Michigan St, at Northwestern, at Iowa
6. ArizonaArizona St, at Washington, USCat Arizona St, at Washington St, UCLA
7. Iowa Stateat TCU, Oklahoma, at Kansas, Texas Techat Texas
8. IndianaMichigan St, Northwesternat Nebraska, Iowa, at Iowa, at Maryland
9. Oklahomaat TCU, Kansas Stat Texas, Texas Tech, at Iowa St
10. BaylorW. Virginia, TCU, at TCU, at Oklahoma St, Kansas--
11. UConnDePaul, at Marquette, at Xavier, Georgetown, Marquette, St. John's--
12. TennesseeMissouri, Vanderbilt, Mississippi Stat Alabama, at S. Carolina, LSU
13. LSUGeorgia, at TAMU, at Mississippi St, Florida, Alabama, at Tennessee--
14. Notre DameMiami, at Georgia Tech, Clemsonat Louisville, Louisville
15. TexasOklahoma, Iowa St, at W. Virginia, at Kansas St, TCU--
16. Oregonat Oregon St, UCLA, Cal, UtahOregon St, Stanford, at Colorado


The four #1 seeds are about as locked in as they could possibly be. Probably only the order of overall #3 and #4 between NC State and Louisville is TBD by conference tournament results, although NC State is definitely #3 for now.

In sharp contrast to the stability of the 1 line, there's been tumult in the 5-16 range. Here are my predictions for tonight's reveal:

5. Baylor
6. Iowa State
7. LSU*
8. UConn
9. Michigan
10. Texas
11. Arizona
12. Oklahoma
13. Notre Dame
14. Tennessee
15. North Carolina**
16. Maryland**

* No team did more to enhance its resume in the past 2.5 weeks than LSU, who picked up four Quad 1 wins including a top 15 road win at Tennessee.

** It's very close IMHO between North Carolina, Maryland and Iowa for those last two spots. A lot depends on how much emphasis the committee puts on the most recent games. Iowa picked up 3 quality wins in the last 10 days but they also have much worse losses (e.g. IUPUI, Northwestern) than either UNC or Maryland.

Also just missing the top 16: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia
 

BRS24

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What I found interesting, is that although you cannot apples to apples conference competition and overall records, projecting 9 SEC teams and only 2 BE teams is a stretch for me. That means that the bottom 3 SEC are at even or losing conf record, and overall, 15-18 wins, where the next 4 BE after UConn have 20+ wins and a winning conference record.

View attachment 73854
And, adding onto this, although some might think it blasphemous, I would love both the M&W tourney minimum reqs be at least a winning conference record, and at least 18 wins, the former similar to CFB where you have to be at .500 or above to qualify for a bowl game, not counting this past year where teams had covid issues. Having a higher winning record would make way for more conference involvement, instead of awarding mediocre teams just because they are in a perceived "tough" conference.
 
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And, adding onto this, although some might think it blasphemous, I would love both the M&W tourney minimum reqs be at least a winning conference record, and at least 18 wins, the former similar to CFB where you have to be at .500 or above to qualify for a bowl game, not counting this past year where teams had covid issues. Having a higher winning record would make way for more conference involvement, instead of awarding mediocre teams just because they are in a perceived "tough" conference.
Both the bowl games and March madness require a winning overall record to be eligible for an at-large pick.
 
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That bowl game requirement is no longer. You routinely see teams with losing records in bowls now. Just last month we saw 5-7 Rutgers in the Gator Bowl. Hawaii also had a losing record and made a bowl game. Last year there were a whole bunch of teams with losing records in bowl games. Guessing there are just not enough big name teams with winning records to fill all the bowl slots.
 

BRS24

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Both the bowl games and March madness require a winning overall record to be eligible for an at-large pick.
Understood. My point above is that if you select Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri over Nova, Creighton, DePaul and Marquette, then it doesn't matter how good of a record of a team in a perceived weaker conf, they will never get selected.

That bowl game requirement is no longer. You routinely see teams with losing records in bowls now. Just last month we saw 5-7 Rutgers in the Gator Bowl. Hawaii also had a losing record and made a bowl game. Last year there were a whole bunch of teams with losing records in bowl games. Guessing there are just not enough big name teams with winning records to fill all the bowl slots.
The .500 rule still exists, however this past bowl season, there were so many teams that withdrew due to covid issues, they had to reach down to find teams that would participate, even if below .500, and some bowls may not have even been played. It's all a racket anyway ...
 

JordyG

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And, adding onto this, although some might think it blasphemous, I would love both the M&W tourney minimum reqs be at least a winning conference record, and at least 18 wins, the former similar to CFB where you have to be at .500 or above to qualify for a bowl game, not counting this past year where teams had covid issues. Having a higher winning record would make way for more conference involvement, instead of awarding mediocre teams just because they are in a perceived "tough" conference.
That is assuming the pool of quality teams remains a constant in WCBB. It doesn't. After about the first 30 teams or so the quality drops off precipitously. Just to fill the brackets the committee is often reaching. Pray the committee doesn't expand the tournament my friend.
 
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The .500 rule still exists, however this past bowl season, there were so many teams that withdrew due to covid issues, they had to reach down to find teams that would participate, even if below .500, and some bowls may not have even been played. It's all a racket anyway ...
Losing teams making bowl games has been going on regularly for the last decade. Just googling it, you had UCLA in 2011, Georgia Tech in 2012, Fresno St in 2014, Nebraka/Minnesota/San Jose St in 2015, Hawaii/Miss St/North Texas in 2016, etc. Basically every year there are teams making bowl games with losing records because there are simply too many games and not enough good teams to fill them.
 
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What I found interesting, is that although you cannot apples to apples conference competition and overall records, projecting 9 SEC teams and only 2 BE teams is a stretch for me. That means that the bottom 3 SEC are at even or losing conf record, and overall, 15-18 wins, where the next 4 BE after UConn have 20+ wins and a winning conference record.

View attachment 73854
While Arkansas did beat LSU, if you look at team season stats for that game, LSU had a horrible night compared to season average and Arkansas shot the lights out. That's just one game though. What else are they gonna hang their hat on? They have lost to every other ranked team they have played, including non-ranked USF and Creighton. Not to mention only beating cellar dweller Auburn by 2 on a last second layup. As to Missouri, yes they did catch SC sleeping (horrible shooting night for the Gamecocks) but it was in overtime, at home. Since that night they have gone 6-9 and lost five of their last 7. Not seeing that one either especially with that 28 point loss to MVC Missouri State in there. If your the all powerful SEC and you cant dust off them off, sorry, no tourney for you. As for Kentucky (15-11), they have won 6 in a row, against 6 of the bottom 7 in the conference. Your telling me your bottom 7 are better than Villanova 21-7 (beat UConn, and won 13 of their last 14), Creighton 20-8 (who beat Villanova and DePaul), and DePaul at 22-9 (who beat Kentucky at Kentucky as well as Villanova and a ranked team (at that time) from your own SEC). Then there is Marquette, 20-9, 13-7. A good solid team that deserves in before Arkansas or Missouri IMHO. Me thinks the football SEC bias may be spreading.
 

diggerfoot

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And, adding onto this, although some might think it blasphemous, I would love both the M&W tourney minimum reqs be at least a winning conference record, and at least 18 wins, the former similar to CFB where you have to be at .500 or above to qualify for a bowl game, not counting this past year where teams had covid issues. Having a higher winning record would make way for more conference involvement, instead of awarding mediocre teams just because they are in a perceived "tough" conference.
I would be satisfied with a .500 record for getting in. My two reasons for such a requirement are:

1. Regardless of how a team performs OOC, their record in conference is a measurement of how they theoretically match up with their peers in recruitment opportunities and other factors. A team that cannot achieve a .500 record with their peers should not be rewarded by at large selection.

2. The mid-majors that would take the place of sub .500 P5 teams may not have a realistic chance of winning the whole tournament, but they do have a realistic chance of pulling a major upset, which increases the entertainment value of the tournament immeasurably more than an upset by an underwhelming P5 team.
 
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teams like Notre Dame are always going to get a pass because they play in a power 5 conference. The Nova loss is just a loss that can't be erased esp if they miss the tournament. Then you look at the wins and Uconn's best win on the season is Tenn who is spiraling out of control.
 
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If UConn wins the BE Tournament easily (every game by double digits), which they should, UConn should be a #2 seed. It may not make a difference, because as someone pointed out above, being the worst #2 seed (8 overall) or the best #3 seed (9 overall) is the same thing.

If the committee uses the NET ranking as a major factor in seeding, I think they will end up 5th or 6th, which would mean Bridgeport or Wichita respectively.
 

southie

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That would make sense if the committee were using a true S-curve for seedings.

But, ever since the committee decided that they wanted to make it a rule/priority to avoid placing teams from the same conference among the Top 16 in the same region, it almost makes these seedings more like "fitting" pieces into a puzzle. If the B1G, ACC, SEC, and Big 12 conferences each have 3-4 teams among the Top 16 national seeds, they have to "fit" those teams into the bracket and work the other teams (from different conferences) around those seedings. It's such a dumb rule, IMO. NCAA women's volleyball lets the chips fall where they may, even if it means placing 3 teams from a conference like the (B1G) in the same regional.
 

southie

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Thread for pre & post announcement discussion

PREDICTION (2/10 Rnk in parenthesis)
  1. So Carolina (1)
  2. Stanford (2)
  3. NC St (3)
  4. Louisville (4)
  5. Iowa St (7)
  6. Baylor (10)
  7. UConn (11)
  8. Michigan (5)
  9. LSU (13)
  10. Arizona (6)
  11. Tex (15)
  12. Okla (9)
  13. ND (14)
  14. Tenn (12)
  15. UNC (-)
  16. Iowa (-)
Dropped out: Indi (8), Ore (16)
You didn't account for avoiding teams from the same conference in the same region. Or, I guess the rankings could still hold true, but then the committee will move teams/up down to avoid those intra-conference matchups.

The committee won't place LSU in South Carolina's region. They won't place Arizona in Stanford's region. They won't place Baylor and Texas in the same region, nor Iowa State and Oklahoma in the same region. They won't place ND in Louisville's region.

1, 8, 9, 16
2, 7, 10, 15
3, 6, 11, 14
4, 5, 12, 13
 
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Understood. My point above is that if you select Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri over Nova, Creighton, DePaul and Marquette, then it doesn't matter how good of a record of a team in a perceived weaker conf, they will never get selected.
You're right. Then throw in the fact DePaul beat Kentucky and it makes it even worse. If you're gonna expand the number of teams in the tournament, don't use it to add more Power 5 teams.
 
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I'm not going to predict each of the seeds, but I think the Big 10 has done enough to warrant 4 top-4 seeds. You can't deny Ohio State a top-4 when they tied for the regular season title with Iowa.


Sure you can. They played a pathetic OOC schedule, and lost to the only top 100 team they played (Syracuse #91 per Massey). To get a top four seed, I think they may need to reach the B10 final. Right now, Indiana has a better resume than OSU, having played a really tough OOC schedule
 

BRS24

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That would make sense if the committee were using a true S-curve for seedings.

But, ever since the committee decided that they wanted to make it a rule/priority to avoid placing teams from the same conference among the Top 16 in the same region, it almost makes these seedings more like "fitting" pieces into a puzzle. If the B1G, ACC, SEC, and Big 12 conferences each have 3-4 teams among the Top 16 national seeds, they have to "fit" those teams into the bracket and work the other teams (from different conferences) around those seedings. It's such a dumb rule, IMO. NCAA women's volleyball lets the chips fall where they may, even if it means placing 3 teams from a conference like the (B1G) in the same regional.
Oooh - this last part, I like it. Reminds me of CT youth soccer state/open cup tourneys, blind draw, single elimination, where the premier teams hated that #1-2 from prior year could meet up in 1st round and not get a chance to goto the regionals. CT finally separated #1-2, but I wondered if that was "fair', as regardless of whether or not teams change from year to year, there are no guarantees that you would win year to year.
 

southie

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Oooh - this last part, I like it. Reminds me of CT youth soccer state/open cup tourneys, blind draw, single elimination, where the premier teams hated that #1-2 from prior year could meet up in 1st round and not get a chance to goto the regionals. CT finally separated #1-2, but I wondered if that was "fair', as regardless of whether or not teams change from year to year, there are no guarantees that you would win year to year.
It's okay to like it. Since the B1G is the current power in women's volleyball, you can imagine that fans of that conference hate that the committee doesn't try to avoid conference matchup in the round of 16 and onward.
 

southie

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1-South Carolina
8-Iowa State
9-Michigan
16-North Carolina

2-Stanford
7-LSU
10-Texas
15-Iowa

3-NC State
6-Baylor
11-Arizona
14-Georgia

4-Louisville
5-UConn
12-Oklahoma
13-Tennessee
 
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