ESPN's Top 25 For Next Year

[DobbsRover2]

First, using all of the predictions and adding them together assumes they are of equal value. It is harder to gauge the Sweet 16, as there are a lot of variables, including injuries. It may be predictable at the top, but only at the very top.

11 out of 16 teams correct in the 2015 Sweet 16 when the preview was done in April 2014? That is pretty darn impressive. That was before major transfers were announced. That is before the impact of injuries that take place in the offseason. Give credit where it is due; Crème did a good job with his predictions last year.

No as mentioned above, it was done in July, as the Way Too Early series hadn't started yet. So if 60% is considered good for you, that's fine, but it doesn't really impress me enough as a particularly great form of info on the coming season, as likely a blind hyperactive gerbil could pick just as well, maybe better.

We're talking about trotting out the standard P5 team names that filled up the S16 this year to make the 2015-16 preview along with a stray mainstay but early-exiter this year like Kentucky, and of course no non-P5 team other than UConn gets up among that top 16 group (4 nonP5 teams made the S16 in 2014, 3 did this year). The year before for 2014, 11 of Creme's top 16 also made it to the S16, but his #2 team bowed out as you know in the second round. How hard and illuminating is it to shovel out the usual feed in the trough for the masses?

Ehhh, personally I'll wait for the only meaningful prognostication that Creme does, which happens in early March. But as you said, a lot can change just in the summer months, so enjoy the current guesstimates while they still are worth the pixels they're printed with.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

No as mentioned above, it was done in July, as the Way Too Early series hadn't started yet. So if 60% is considered good for you, that's fine, but it doesn't really impress me enough as a particularly great form of info on the coming season, as likely a blind hyperactive gerbil could pick just as well, maybe better.

Not true. It was April 24, 2014, confirmed by Way Back and the ESPN archives:

1. Women's college basketball - A very early look at the Top 25 for ...
   Charlie Creme
   Connecticut is the obvious pick as the top team when the Top 25 rankings are revealed this fall. Until then, we check in with our own Top 25.
   
   Story | Conversation | April 21, 2014
   
   

 

[Huskies Rule]

Aside from bad losses to Pitt and OSU, UNC played everyone tough all year long. They have loads of individual talent returning and are a fun team to watch, always trying to get out in transition and displaying wonderful athleticism. Having said that, their half-court game was really not good, and their idea of team play seemed nonexistent. Guards Coleman, Cherry and Washington too often played "out of control." While returning starters Mavunga and Gray were outstanding, watching a UNC game was like watching an undisciplined mish mosh of athletic ballers in a playground pickup game. Judging from the 8 or so games I saw last year, UNC obviously had great athletes and all the requisite ingredients to put them in NC contention, but Hatchell's players (and I think you have to blame the coach) rarely played like a team. A #10-15 ranking is pretty much their ceiling.
[Speaking of UNC, will the NCAA ever punish those cheaters? Sadly,I think not.]

 

[uconnfan68]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...nking-2015-16-women-college-basketball-season

Any surprises or Omissions for you.

USF and Duke are too low. People are underestimating Salvadores, who was brilliant in the world championship in U19.

 

[BlueDevils]

I agree, though we knew that McBride was talented before Skylar left, and we knew that Loyd was very talented before McBride left. I'm not sure who is the next star player there, especially at guard. But I think that Turner may be an AA next year and Lindsay Allen is really good. My guess is that at least one of the freshman guards will be an impact player early join. My guess is Ogunbowale, because of her aggressiveness. My top 5 are UConn, Baylor, ND, SC, and Tenn. I also agree that Duke MAY be very underrated. They may have been too dependent on Williams, and clearly they were missing guards. Greenwell and Stevens should be very good, and Salvadores could be a star. Can JPM coach them up?

+1. This is arguably the most talent Duke has ever had from 1-12. With this team we have there should not be anymore "horrible" or "terrible" as acceptable postgame responses. This upcoming team is versatile and there's no reason why this team should feel they can't compete with anyone. Can JPM coach them up?

 

[Gus Mahler]

Aside from bad losses to Pitt and OSU, UNC played everyone tough all year long. They have loads of individual talent returning and are a fun team to watch, always trying to get out in transition and displaying wonderful athleticism. Having said that, their half-court game was really not good, and their idea of team play seemed nonexistent. Guards Coleman, Cherry and Washington too often played "out of control." While returning starters Mavunga and Gray were outstanding, watching a UNC game was like watching an undisciplined mish mosh of athletic ballers in a playground pickup game. Judging from the 8 or so games I saw last year, UNC obviously had great athletes and all the requisite ingredients to put them in NC contention, but Hatchell's players (and I think you have to blame the coach) rarely played like a team. A #10-15 ranking is pretty much their ceiling.
[Speaking of UNC, will the NCAA ever punish those cheaters? Sadly,I think not.]

The situation seems ripe for a Shea Ralph takeover.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Back in the day when widespread hope existed on this Board that Diamond would play for UConn, her abundant talents were extravagantly recognized. Interesting how she suddenly became a less-valued commodity when she elected to go elsewhere. Sorry, but she's the real deal, as is that Freshman guard Tenn has coming in....they will be formidable, and, even if Vol-hate is in our collective DNA, Holly will do just fine with them. I put them and ND ahead of SC for next year.

For whatever reason DD got upset and took her act to TN where Holly Warlick is clueless and DD will get to run the TN team for 1 or 2 years till she can run to the pros before her RS year where she won't be able to run the show anymore and learn the coach is the boss not the player! The days of TN going to the Final 4 are over! Stick a fork in them they're done! They're now in the Remember when we used to be great stage!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Huskies Rule- - - -Judging from the 8 or so games I saw last year, UNC obviously had great athletes and all the requisite ingredients to put them in NC contention, but Hatchell's players (and I think you have to blame the coach) rarely played like a team. A #10-15 ranking is pretty much their ceiling.

I lost a lot of respect for Sylvia Hatchell when she said to Holly Rowe several years ago before a UCONN game that, "I don't care if we have a 100 turnovers just as long as we play fast!" That game they had 28 turnovers and lost to UCONN by 30+ points! Great recruiter no clue as a game coach!

 

[hoophuskee]

It's a Bill Simmons concept: http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?id=1193711 The idea is based off the fact that Ewing was a highly-hyped star yet his teams often played better without him. The qualifications for the Ewing Theory are:

1. A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his teams never win anything substantial with him (other than maybe some early-round playoff series).
2. That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) -- and both the media and fans immediately write off the team for the following season.

The theory is so ignorant it should be banned from being posted. Of course UCONN being better without Donyell had everything to do the team just wanting to feed Donyell and nothing to do with Ollie and Marshall and Fair being seniors. Sheffer getting his 3rd year under his belt as a junior. And Ray Allen getting that frosh to soph jump.

I guess all those years ago when the Knicks won a title in 69-70 the series was tied 2-2t down. How silly of us to not recognize the Knicks won despite Reed, and the Ewing Theory should apply to back then too.

 

[UcMiami]

Some of thoughts:
1. Dobbs - thanks for going back and doing the analysis of Creme from last year - I would say getting 11-16 sweet sixteen teams is pretty impressive - 69%. Getting the exact ranking within that universe is pretty tough.

2. On TN and Diamond - absolutely the most exciting player TN has had since Parker. But, I said this during her freshman year, and after it - do not remember the exact numbers but she took something like 35% of the UNC shots and her shooting percentage was almost 10% worse than the other four starters on the team - her three point percentage was also bad and bad when compared to her more accurate teammates from 3. Loyd and Sims are the two players in recent times that best compare with that kind of weighting in terms of number of shots for a good team and both of them were significantly more accurate. DD on a team with a strong coach teaching her to harness her talent would be scary good - just not sure Holly is that coach - she had players admit to ignoring the coaching staff previously. (And a concern for TN I think is the reportedly strong friendship between Cooper and DD - if the backcourt forms a clique that does their own thing ...)

3. One more thought on TN - they have always preached strong defense, but have been less than stellar at 'team defense'. The help side has frequently been slow or nonexistent. Those are things that really well coached teams late in the NCAA expose.

4. Duke with a backcourt! What a novel concept! Really interested to see what happens for them this year. Stevens was impressive if 'under the radar'.

5. Turner - she and ND will be good. How good depends on the freshman.

6. MD - they were a very young team this year and I think surprised a lot of people. They should be better next year just with maturity and experience and they lost no one.

7. SC - a young team as well, but they did lose some key elements. Should still be good, but I wonder if they haven't peaked.

8. FLSt - out of nowhere but should be contenders again.

9. TX - yeah that was embarrassing - but they saw the mountaintop and they have talent - if they do not have a mid-season swoon they should be better with a better seeding.

10. West coast ... meh. Exciting Pac12 season this past year, but I think exposed in the NCAAs - the story was really Stanford having an off year and not a sudden leap in quality amongst the others.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Not true. It was April 24, 2014, confirmed by Way Back and the ESPN archives:

1. Women's college basketball - A very early look at the Top 25 for ...
   Charlie Creme
   Connecticut is the obvious pick as the top team when the Top 25 rankings are revealed this fall. Until then, we check in with our own Top 25.
   
   Story | Conversation | April 21, 2014
   

Getting back, and um, well no. I was looking at the ratings Creme gives in this article, which states that the byline as shown below is 7/29/2014, which up here at least means July 29, 2014.

So I will stick by my statement that the rankings I was looking at were done at the end of July of 2014. The statement attached to the UNC rating of #10 includes mention of the DeShields transfer, so unless you have a special in with Charlie and he told you he had advance info of DD's transfer almost two months before she announced it, I'm not sure why you would be saying that Charlie had a an extra good reason for dropping them down. But whatever.

Pre-preseason Top 25
7/29/2014 - Women's College Basketball


And to those who think that trotting out a bunch of the main traditional P5 programs and ignoring all the non-P5 teams except UConn means that Charlie does really well by getting 11 of the S16 teams teams right among his top 16, again fine, we all have different standards, and just like with the pundits who pick only #1 seeds to make the FF and slap themselves on the back when they're right this year, I'm not so impressed.

 

[southie]

Depending on who lands the JUCO Player of the Year, 6'3 PF Evelyn Akhator of Chipola CC by way of Lagos, Nigeria -- FSU, Texas, Tennessee or Kentucky -- the Top 10 could be slightly altered. PF is definitely Texas' biggest question mark going into 2015-16.

 

[triaddukefan]

Depending on who lands the JUCO Player of the Year, 6'3 PF Evelyn Akhator of Chipola CC by way of Lagos, Nigeria -- FSU, Texas, Tennessee or Kentucky -- the Top 10 could be slightly altered. PF is definitely Texas' biggest question mark going into 2015-16.

FSU lacks quality size beyond Bulgat..... if they can land this player...... they could really really challenge for first place in the ACC.

 

[VFLfan]

FSU lacks quality size beyond Bulgat..... if they can land this player. they could really really challenge for first place in the ACC.

Tenn needs her too. We have no one to back up Russell and/or Bash next year. Guess all three could use her.

 

[Ron and Vida]

I hate to sound bias, but Duke will be in the top 10 for the majority of the year based on talent alone. Unc and Texas is rated a little to high for me... especially UNC.

 

[Ron and Vida]

We hate to say this but we feel if Duke is ranked lower than expected it probably isn't because of the quality of the players.........

 

[triaddukefan]

We hate to say this but we feel if Duke is ranked lower than expected it probably isn't because of the quality of the players....

Did Ron or Vida type this? What would Ron have Duke ranked as opposed to Vida ?

 

[southie]

Tenn needs her too. We have no one to back up Russell and/or Bash next year. Guess all three could use her.

I don't think she's interested in being a backup to anyone. But, I'm sure she's looking closely at the depth charts.

 

[mhshuskies]

I can hear them whining in South Bend: "we don't get enough respect".

 

[CocoHusky]

Depending on who lands the JUCO Player of the Year, 6'3 PF Evelyn Akhator of Chipola CC by way of Lagos, Nigeria -- FSU, Texas, Tennessee or Kentucky -- the Top 10 could be slightly altered. PF is definitely Texas' biggest question mark going into 2015-16.

Last I read Evelyn Akhator was holding offers from LadyVols, South Carolina, Florida & FSU, did not realize Texas, & Kentucky were in the mix. Who else?

 

[VFLfan]

Last I read Evelyn Akhator was holding offers from LadyVols, South Carolina, Florida & FSU, did not realize Texas, & Kentucky were in the mix. Who else?

She supposedly narrowed down her choices to a final 4: FSU, Tenn, Texas and Kentucky. I believe has already taken an official visit to FSU...was suppose to visit TX and KY next with Tenn being her last visit in a couple weeks. (I don't know the timing of it all specifically).

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

So I will stick by my statement that the rankings I was looking at were done at the end of July of 2014. The statement attached to the UNC rating of #10 includes mention of the DeShields transfer, so unless you have a special in with Charlie and he told you he had advance info of DD's transfer almost two months before she announced it, I'm not sure why you would be saying that Charlie had a an extra good reason for dropping them down. But whatever.

And to those who think that trotting out a bunch of the main traditional P5 programs and ignoring all the non-P5 teams except UConn means that Charlie does really well by getting 11 of the S16 teams teams right among his top 16, again fine, we all have different standards, and just like with the pundits who pick only #1 seeds to make the FF and slap themselves on the back when they're right this year, I'm not so impressed.

The original rankings were done when I said, confirmed by ESPN. The list was updated after DeShields transferred.

As for your "ignoring" the other teams, Creme had Dayton at 19. You do not think 11 out of 16 is impressive, but considering he had Dayton at #19 clearly shows that the Flyers were a candidate to make the Sweet 16.

You are also holding Creme to a tournament standard based on preseason rankings. The rankings cannot factor in home court, injuries, etc. that go on throughout the season.

For those who criticize the preseason rankings one year later and engage in Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking, I ask where your preseason lists are or present an analyst who did significantly better.

 

[easttexastrash]

I put Baylor at #2. Agbuke was rarely a factor and is being replaced by two top post recruits. The lack of a good post presence was Baylor's weakness last season.

But it's the addition of Alexis Jones that will make the biggest difference. She can be a go-to player.

 

[meyers7]

I don't think she's interested in being a backup to anyone. But, I'm sure she's looking closely at the depth charts.

Agree, if you're transferring in as a Jr, you're not looking to be a back up at that point in your career. Or at least you shouldn't be.

 

[meyers7]

I put Baylor at #2. Agbuke was rarely a factor and is being replaced by two top post recruits. The lack of a good post presence was Baylor's weakness last season.

But it's the addition of Alexis Jones that will make the biggest difference. She can be a go-to player.

Gonna have to agree with you here. I think Baylor has a good shot as a FF team next year.