ESPN names their preseason All-Americans

[AndyCT]

When you take the stats to per 40mins to account for differences with time on the court, Kalenna only pulls ahead in points per min. So, Kalenna is a better scorer per min played... other wise Alyssa is pulling down more rebounds, dishing out more assist, block more shots and coming away with more steals per minute. She has a better all around game. Or shall I say, played a better all around game last year. Kalenna looks like she is going to try and show she can do more this year... reference her play in the exhibition games.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics…

The problem with statistics is that they are meaningless unless we know what went into them and how they were calculated. As several others have said, we have to look at the context in which those numbers are accumulated, and the circumstances in which those two players played. In this case to try and compare two players by their numbers that nominally play the same position but in vastly different ways is pointless. But since you’ve decided to go down that road, comparing their totals to an arbitrary calculated 40 minute standard isn’t a relevant way to evaluate these two players

In any game there are only so many possessions, and therefore only so many opportunities to score; every basket that Breanna scores is a basket that the various other killer Bre’s (Brianna, Briana, or Bria) can’t score - or in this case, Kaleena. Statistically players are competing for a limited number of points. In another thread, we talked about the fact that, with all Maryland’s injuries, Alyssa Thomas was forced to carry a disproportionate share of Maryland’s offense, so it would stand to reason that she should have larger numbers than Kaleena, both overall and in this case, per 40 minutes.

On the other hand, Kaleena play’s for a more talented team – it is harder to double on Kaleena if that means leaving Stephanie or Breanna or Kelly unguarded – pick your poison, right? That also leads to less obvious benefits – for example, with the nature of UConn’s offense the ball movement tends to generate better shot opportunities, and reduces the need to force up a bad shot – if it’s not there, just pass off to another All-American...

So the nature of the two teams by itself favors Alyssa in terms of sheer number of opportunities, and Kaleena in terms of the quality of the opportunities; but let’s look at the numbers and see what we get:

There is no need to make any corrections for “40 minute standards” or other nonsense; in raw numbers, Kaleena played four more games (she sat out against Colgate) but had seventeen fewer minutes for the season (just about equal to a half) – that makes sense with the both UConn’s depth and also the number of games in which Geno could rest the starters significantly. Yet in that (less) time Kaleena made 13 more baskets (242 - 229), of which far more were three pointers (118 - 6) or 138 more points from the floor (602 - 464) – again, in fewer minutes. We would expect Kaleena to have a better shooting percentage and she does (.528 - .452, including three pointers).

Where Alyssa catches up is in free throws, which we should expect with the nature of her game compared to Kaleena’s – Alyssa made almost three times as many free throw points as Kaleena (176 - 68) though at a lower percentage (.765 - .895). Even with that huge advantage in foul shots, combined with points from the floor, Kaleena still outscored Alyssa by 30 points (670 - 640), again in fewer minutes. Kaleena’s minutes were spread over more games, though, which gives Alyssa the advantage per game (18.8 – 17.6) but I think we see clearly that the numbers show that Kaleena is the more productive scorer when she is in the game.

Some other statistics – we would expect that Alyssa would probably get more rebounds and she does (349 - 240) – that makes sense considering where they each would tend to be when a shot goes up. Alyssa has far more assists (181 – 89) which makes some sense if we consider that Kaleena is a shooter and is more likely to get the ball in a situation where she is going to shoot than pass. On the other hand, Alyssa also has far more turnovers (137-58) and a worse assist/turnover ratio (1.32 – 1.53). Alyssa had twice as many blocks (26 – 12), but they were just about even in steals (61 – 57).

So what does this all mean? Not much, really. There aren’t any surprises. Kaleena is a better scorer – far better from the floor. Alyssa gets fouled a lot more which we expect from a player who’s game is more oriented on driving and posting up, and many (though certainly not all) of those foul points would otherwise be floor points if she weren’t fouled, but at the end of the day Kaleena still scored more points in fewer minutes, had better percentages from the floor and foul line, and a better assist/turnoever ratio. Alyssa had far more rebounds and blocks, so I think over the course of the season the statistics pretty much confirm what we think of these two players. And again in fairness, with injuries Alyssa became the primary threat (along with Tianna Hawkins) and therefore the primary target of most opponents, while Kaleena played on a far more balanced team where opponents couldn’t afford to concentrate on just her, so points for Alyssa may have been harder to come by.

So who’s the better player? We can’t let the numbers lead us to conclusions that we don’t see on our own; but in this case the numbers do seem to echo the differing nature of their games fairly accurately, and they support my personal subjective opinion that the leading scorer on the best team in the country is the better player.

 

[doggydaddy]

Andy, you don't post enough.

 

[boontonbomber]

That's great and all, but stats don't tell the whole story. Given that a basketball team consists of five players on the court at any given time, stats are largely dependent on the other players around you. The best way to put it is if you have two players to choose from, Mosqueda-Lewis or Thomas, who do you pick? I'll bet most coaches will take Mosqueda-Lewis over Thomas 9 times out of 10.

more like 10 out of 10. it's not even close. i think kaleena , everything considered, is the best player in the country.