ESPN "Experts" make their picks

[j66kicker]

My take: MSST will play UConn in the NC game. MSST has a superb interior game (McCowan and Howard), the transition game (Jazz and Jo), decent outside game (AEH and Bree), and the best defense amoung the contenders. I think MSST will win the NC.

Sorry - Baylor will take out Miss St, and UConn will take out Baylor for all the marbles

 

[SimpleDawg]

Ehhh... I'm not that quick to predict that we'll win the National Championship. I don't make these type of predictions anyways.

But I think a final four with Baylor-UConn-Mississippi State-Notre Dame is as heavyweight as it gets. Probably if we go by paper, those will be the most "logical" bets.

But..... I can just smell tons of upsets. Not quite like 2015-2016 where it was upset-city - UConn the only 1 seed to make it to the Final Four. But I can just imagine scenarios in this tournament where there'll some major upsets coming our way.

...

 

[Jim R]

Ehhh... I'm not that quick to predict that we'll win the National Championship. I don't make these type of predictions anyways.

But I think a final four with Baylor-UConn-Mississippi State-Notre Dame is as heavyweight as it gets. Probably if we go by paper, those will be the most "logical" bets.

But..... I can just smell tons of upsets. Not quite like 2015-2016 where it was upset-city - UConn the only 1 seed to make it to the Final Four. But I can just imagine scenarios in this tournament where there'll some major upsets coming our way.

...

Concur, but the long pole in the tent is officiating....more so for Miss St than others. Without McCowan in the middle, they are much less effective.

 

[JoePgh]

My take: MSST will play UConn in the NC game. MSST has a superb interior game (McCowan and Howard), the transition game (Jazz and Jo), decent outside game (AEH and Bree), and the best defense amoung the contenders. I think MSST will win the NC.

You might want to look at the 538 article referenced on this forum, which contains a graph showing the offensive and defensive efficiency of each of the tournament teams. Surprisingly, UConn's defensive efficiency in that graph looks better than their offensive efficiency this year.

Mississippi State has a place of honor on that graph, but not where you might expect. Its offensive efficiency exceeds UConn's and Notre Dame's, and is second only to Oregon. However, its defensive efficiency is below both UConn's and Baylor's -- Baylor is the most defensively efficient team in the tournament by a significant margin, according to the graph. The Bulldogs are only slightly better defensively than Notre Dame, which is not too much of a compliment.

Of course, the input to this graph is influenced by strength of schedule, and (IMHO) it's pretty obvious that because of the strength of their conferences, ND and Oregon have played tougher overall schedules than UConn, Baylor, and Mississippi State. So ND is perhaps shown unfavorably on this graph in comparison to the latter three schools. Oregon's top offensive efficiency score is magnified by the strength of the PAC-12 conference against which they earned those numbers.

The graph suggests that UConn should make quick work of Louisville if they should meet in the Elite Eight. But of course, that conclusion is distorted by the effect of competition (ACC vs. AAC) on the statistics of both teams.

 

[Jmsdawg]

You might want to look at the 538 article referenced on this forum, which contains a graph showing the offensive and defensive efficiency of each of the tournament teams. Surprisingly, UConn's defensive efficiency in that graph looks better than their offensive efficiency this year.

Mississippi State has a place of honor on that graph, but not where you might expect. Its offensive efficiency exceeds UConn's and Notre Dame's, and is second only to Oregon. However, its defensive efficiency is below both UConn's and Baylor's -- Baylor is the most defensively efficient team in the tournament by a significant margin, according to the graph. The Bulldogs are only slightly better defensively than Notre Dame, which is not too much of a compliment.

Of course, the input to this graph is influenced by strength of schedule, and (IMHO) it's pretty obvious that because of the strength of their conferences, ND and Oregon have played tougher overall schedules than UConn, Baylor, and Mississippi State. So ND is perhaps shown unfavorably on this graph in comparison to the latter three schools. Oregon's top offensive efficiency score is magnified by the strength of the PAC-12 conference against which they earned those numbers.

The graph suggests that UConn should make quick work of Louisville if they should meet in the Elite Eight. But of course, that conclusion is distorted by the effect of competition (ACC vs. AAC) on the statistics of both teams.

My opinion is based upon watching the teams play. I admit MSST bias but I really see team defense amoung the elite as 1. MSST, 2. Baylor, 3. Stanford, 4. UConn, 5. ND, 6. Louisville. I only saw one Stanford game, tournament championship, against Oregon, they were awesome defense in that game. I consider rebounding to be a vital component of defense and that certainly is a strong point of both MSST and Baylor. This tournament will answer a lot of questions for me, must admit I would not place money down on any team to win NC today.

 

[CMC'72]

My take: I think MSST will win the NC.

NOT!

 

[MSUFan2003]

But..... I can just smell tons of upsets. Not quite like 2015-2016 where it was upset-city - UConn the only 1 seed to make it to the Final Four. But I can just imagine scenarios in this tournament where there'll some major upsets coming our way.

...

Me too. I'm kind of excited about it. I have zero expectations that State will win the NC and would put money on ND. I never thought this team would be more than a Sweet 16 team back in August, so I'm just going with it at this point. It's not a given State and Oregon will even play. I'm pretty sure we can make it out of Starkville, but South Dakota and Clemson aren't just going to lie down and die.

And then Miami will be waiting. The thing is that anything can happen in one game. It's not like the NBA finals where you play multiple games, so the best team eventually wins. If we do end up playing Oregon, I feel that we can beat them. I don't know that we will beat them, but we are a different team now. Vic has shown some flexibility with his defensive schemes, and McCowan has gotten her head right. Oregon might have peaked too early. We'll see what happens.

 

[MSUFan2003]

Graham has us beating the Ducks in the title game. I'll take that! .

I have long wanted to see Oregon play UConn.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I have long wanted to see Oregon play UConn.

I saw them 2 years ago in Bridgeport. It wasn't especially close.

 

[MSUFan2003]

I saw them 2 years ago in Bridgeport. It wasn't especially close.

I had no idea they had played before. I would definitely pick UConn.

 

[Bayloralum]

I saw them 2 years ago in Bridgeport. It wasn't especially close.

Well that was when Sabrina and Hebard were freshmen! No one expected them to make it to the elite eight

 

[MilfordHusky]

Well that was when Sabrina and Hebard were freshmen! No one expected them to make it to the elite eight

Well, they had Bando and McGuire. Their record wasn't that impressive, but they played well late.

 

[eebmg]

Well that was when Sabrina and Hebard were freshmen! No one expected them to make it to the elite eight

That was a fun game. Sabrina was average at best and Hebard was abused by Gabby Williams. It is amazing how much Hebard's game has improved.

 

[HuskyNan]

Well that was when Sabrina and Hebard were freshmen! No one expected them to make it to the elite eight

Napheesa Collier was a sophomore and she had 28 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals.

 

[Triad]

There is no ambiguity about the fact that all three "experts" are expecting UConn to beat Louisville (or Louisville to lose before that, perhaps to Oregon State), since they all predict UConn being in the Final Four.

What I find mysterious is that if UConn is the top #2 seed, does that imply that Louisville is the bottom #1 seed? (Maybe not, since the G -- for Geography -- trumps the S.) If Louisville were the bottom #1 seed, then you would expect the winner of the Albany region to face the overall #1 (Baylor) in the National Semifinal. But the bracket shows instead that the Albany winner will meet the Chicago winner. That seems to suggest that Louisville is indeed #3 overall, and is matched up with #5 overall (UConn) because of geography.

It does appear that for UConn to win NC #12, they will probably have to beat exactly the same three teams that they have already faced in their OOC schedule: Louisville, ND, and Baylor. As we all know, they were 1-2 against these teams in the regular season.

I liked your analysis, and assumptions. I hope you[ve been speaking to the Gods of basketball I mean the Basketball Gods from your finger to their ears. \
I followed Arkansas Football years many years back. They were selected nearly every year for some type of post season play. Why? The answer from those who supposed to know said: They travel well. Meaning they brought thousands of fans with them wherever they went. Uconn brings a hoard with them. That IS a factor not often spoken about. To ensure the host sites get full seats, full restaurants and full hotels--economy.