OT: - Draft Lottery | Page 2 | The Boneyard

OT: Draft Lottery

zls44 said:
lol you all keep talking about KD wanting to be #1 in NYC like the Nets don't exist.
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The reason everyone talks about KD going to the Knicks is because the likes of Lowe and Windhorst say it is an open secret that it's happening.
 
Walker11 said:
The reason everyone talks about KD going to the Knicks is because the likes of Lowe and Windhorst say it is an open secret that it's happening.
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I know...but...can you understand my doubts? Can't you!
 
Us Knicks fans are used to this. Just missed out on curry... We constantly fall short of good luck on the court and with things like this. It's whatever! If kd comes and brings others great! If not we will ride with whoever we get in the draft and build with Mitchell, knox and trier, and maybe we one of these years in the draft we'll land a player that can change things. Until then we are no strangers to losing. If there is any fan base that can handle such tragedy, anguish, torment, and pain it's us Knicks fans. And we keep coming back for more.
 
Barrett is a pretty good #3 overall pick in the grand scheme of things....

Huge dropoff from there (I know some people like Garland at 4, but yikes). So the Knicks at least getting top 3 is important.

I have no idea what AD does. Probably leaves, as the relationship is fractured. But man, I'd love to play with Zion. Jrue, Zion, AD + shooting/defense at the #2 and #3 is a competitive playoff team at least.

But I guess maybe you trade AD for assets on the same timeline as Zion.
 
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superjohn said:
Media capital of the world. Most rabid fanbase in the NBA, thirsting for a winner. You bring a title there you're a god.

Negatives- Dolan, Dolan, Dolan
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But I've been told by clearly smart people on here that Dolan no longer has a voice and every move made in the last 6 years has been very basketball savvy.
 
FartMan69 said:
But I've been told by clearly smart people on here that Dolan no longer has a voice and every move made in the last 6 years has been very basketball savvy.
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He has stepped away from the basketball moves. Doesn't mean he's not still a negative
 
I knew the Knicks would end up at 3 because this is the spot that I feel most nervous about that the Bockers will try to get cute and reach for someone (Reddish). In fact, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Knicks trade up with Memphis to draft Reddish. I've grown to expect incompetence from my Knicks that I would actually be more surprised if they stayed put and drafted Barrett. Even more surprised if they can actually sign KD and Kemba this offseason.
 
Lol, Windhorst thinks Zion is going back to Duke because he's so mad about the Pels getting the #1 pick.
 
superjohn said:
Lol, Windhorst thinks Zion is going back to Duke because he's so mad about the Pels getting the #1 pick.
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While I think wondhorst is a self righteous blow hard, this would be amazing on some level (nba takes a hit) and horrible on another level (duke gets a lot better)
 
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I like it for how crazy it would make the NCAA haters that said he shouldn't have played last year after injury.
 
The Lakers actually may be getting closer to a viable package for Davis now that they have the 4th pick of the draft.
 
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Walker11 said:
I'm sitting here in Stratford imagining what it's like for someone to think New Orleans is too small and lame of a place to live.
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Someone taking a pay cut to go there?
 
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Walker11 said:
I don't think it even matters much anymore. KD became a top 3 star in freaking Oklahoma.
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I know. It was more a crack at the ncaa scandal.
 
UconnFanNVa said:
Us Knicks fans are used to this. Just missed out on curry... We constantly fall short of good luck on the court and with things like this. It's whatever! If kd comes and brings others great! If not we will ride with whoever we get in the draft and build with Mitchell, knox and trier, and maybe we one of these years in the draft we'll land a player that can change things. Until then we are no strangers to losing. If there is any fan base that can handle such tragedy, anguish, torment, and pain it's us Knicks fans. And we keep coming back for more.
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Sound like a Mets fan
 
Walker11 said:
So in terms of the worst teams in the league, 1,7,8 and 11 are now in the top 4. This really does crush tanking.
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I think it's the opposite; we're in a new era of tanking strategy that will ultimately be worse off for the league. Lottery reform was the most short-sighted change during Silver's tenure so far. They were too focused on punishing the worst teams that they didn't realize how much they helped the mediocre teams. We just saw three teams that weren't that far from being in the playoffs get rewarded with top picks.

1) It makes it more difficult for the truly bad teams to land a top pick. This means these bad teams will tank for years on end now. What's the alternative for these teams? Even with worse odds, the most prudent play is to keep on tanking.

2) It incentivizes teams who are fighting for an 8th seed to tank the final 6-8 weeks of the year since they now have a better chance than ever to move up.

I know the league was upset with Hinkie but I believe they overreacted. It's never a good idea to make it this difficult for poor teams to improve.
 
Lefty2one said:
I think it's the opposite; we're in a new era of tanking strategy that will ultimately be worse off for the league. Lottery reform was the most short-sighted change during Silver's tenure so far. They were too focused on punishing the worst teams that they didn't realize how much they helped the mediocre teams. We just saw three teams that weren't that far from being in the playoffs get rewarded with top picks.

1) It makes it more difficult for the truly bad teams to land a top pick. This means these bad teams will tank for years on end now. What's the alternative for these teams? Even with worse odds, the most prudent play is to keep on tanking.

2) It incentivizes teams who are fighting for an 8th seed to tank the final 6-8 weeks of the year since they now have a better chance than ever to move up.

I know the league was upset with Hinkie but I believe they overreacted. It's never a good idea to make it this difficult for poor teams to improve.
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The league doesn't care about bad teams. It cares about intentionally not winning games. They fixed the latter.
 
auror said:
The league doesn't care about bad teams. It cares about intentionally not winning games. They fixed the latter.
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Says who?

People really think bad teams are suddenly going to try because the odds are a little worse? It still makes far more sense for them to tank, even if the odds aren't what they used to be.
 
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I don't mind helping the mediocre teams. It's rare that a team ends up in the bottom three due to bad luck. They are usually there because they made bad decisions over a long period of time (Knicks) ... or they tanked on purpose (Philly's "Process"). Look at Charlotte. Everyone is saying they should just start over (tank) because they stuck in 7 to 10 seed territory. So maybe this would push them to tank a few games to get a 10 see over an 8, but at least they'd be trying for a majority of the season and still have a chance to get a golden ticket. It still gives the bad teams solid picks that should allow them to move up to mediocre in time.
 
auror said:
The league doesn't care about bad teams. It cares about intentionally not winning games. They fixed the latter.
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Losing more still limits how far you can drop in the draft. This doesn't change anything, if anything it gives more teams an incentive to tank
 
Chuck said:
I don't mind helping the mediocre teams. It's rare that a team ends up in the bottom three due to bad luck. They are usually there because they made bad decisions over a long period of time (Knicks) ... or they tanked on purpose (Philly's "Process"). Look at Charlotte. Everyone is saying they should just start over (tank) because they stuck in 7 to 10 seed territory. So maybe this would push them to tank a few games to get a 10 see over an 8, but at least they'd be trying for a majority of the season and still have a chance to get a golden ticket. It still gives the bad teams solid picks that should allow them to move up to mediocre in time.
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I would love them to do the draft lottery the way they currently do it but every 4 years do a completely random drawing where every team would have an equal chance. It could possibly help some of the mediocre teams like charlotte but mostly it would just be fun as hell.
 
Lefty2one said:
Says who?
People really think bad teams are suddenly going to try because the odds are a little worse? It still makes far more sense for them to tank, even if the odds aren't what they used to be.
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Totally disagree. I don't think you understand how the odds absolutely motivated tanking and made that strategy superior. Having the worst record gave you the best odds to improve. Now it quite clearly does not.

Yes there are always unintended consequences and you are right about the middle, borderline playoff teams having a possible incentive to miss the playoffs. But even that jockeying is a heck of a lot more interesting than outright losing. Depending on the team you may be better off missing the playoffs versus being #8 vs #1 fodder. But if you are an up and coming team like the quickly rebuilt Clippers the playoff experience is/was worthwhile. The Kings would have killed for that. AND there was a dogfight for the last playoff spot in the EAST, so you are diagnosing a problem that didn't exist in practice.
The problem of losing games the last part of a too long season when your fate is known/sealed anyway is much less of a problem than choosing years of purposeful non-competitiveness that destroys the entertainment/competitiveness of the league. That was a real occurrence, they needed to dis-incentivize that and they did.
 
Dogdeacon said:
Totally disagree. I don't think you understand how the odds absolutely motivated tanking and made that strategy superior. Having the worst record gave you the best odds to improve. Now it quite clearly does not.

Yes there are always unintended consequences and you are right about the middle, borderline playoff teams having a possible incentive to miss the playoffs. But even that jockeying is a heck of a lot more interesting than outright losing. Depending on the team you may be better off missing the playoffs versus being #8 vs #1 fodder. But if you are an up and coming team like the quickly rebuilt Clippers the playoff experience is/was worthwhile. The Kings would have killed for that. AND there was a dogfight for the last playoff spot in the EAST, so you are diagnosing a problem that didn't exist in practice.
The problem of losing games the last part of a too long season when your fate is known/sealed anyway is much less of a problem than choosing years of purposeful non-competitiveness that destroys the entertainment/competitiveness of the league. That was a real occurrence, they needed to dis-incentivize that and they did.
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You can't use this year as an example, nobody knew what this lottery would be like until this week. Next year if teams are still competing really hard to make the playoffs you have a valid point
 
navery12 said:
Losing more still limits how far you can drop in the draft. This doesn't change anything, if anything it gives more teams an incentive to tank
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There is a cost to losing, usually coming from pressure from fans, owners, and sometimes the league. There is also a direct financial opportunity cost from not selling tickets when fans don't support the team's losing.

Giving yourself a 60% chance of a top 3 pick (generally the only picks that are team changing) is a much different reward than giving yourself a 60% chance to MISS the top 3.

The financial reward is not there anymore compared to the cost. The Knicks beat the odds to get the #3 pick (they had a >50% chance to be 4 or 5). That was statistically a good outcome for them. Do you think Dolan thinks this is a good outcome for the franchise? No, because the losing wasn't worth the 3rd pick in a weak draft.

Not trying your hardest in 5 games at the end of the season is different than putting together a roster that intentionally can't win. The former is not tanking. Adam Silver has been very candid that bottoming out and rebuilding is a valid and acceptable thing for a franchise to do. Bottoming out and then intentionally not rebuilding until you've amassed enough lottery talent is not acceptable. And with this new system, your success rate with that strategy is lower AND will take longer, making it far too costly.

If instead of a race to the bottom it's a crawl to the middle-bad, that means the average bad team is winning more games. That's what the league wants. A few more wins from bad teams.
 
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