Discuss the Pats rebuild.

[Deepster]

When you look at the overall resume, the Pats have really screwed up the post-Brady rebuild.

1) Year 1 (2020) - They're going with Stidham and Hoyer at QB, thinking Stidham may be the guy. By mid-July that summer, they sign a burned out Cam Newton. Newton plays 15 games with 8 TD's and 10 INT's. Team goes 7-9.

2) Year 2 (2021) - They can Newton and dump Stidham and draft Mac Jones. Belichick does an underrated job guiding that team to 10-7. They don't have a 1,000 yd rusher or receiver. Jones has 22 TDs, 13 INTs.

3) Year 3 (2022) - The bloom starts to wear off Mac Jones and he loses his job to Bailey Zappe at one point. Jones regresses to 14 TD's and 11 INT's. The team goes 8-9.

4) Year 4 (2023) - Belichick's swan song. The team goes 4-13. Jones only starts 11 games to Zappe's 6. Jones has 10 TD's and 12 INT's and is eventually traded to the Jags for a 6th rd pick.

5) Year 5 (2024) Enter rookie coach Mayo. Enter rookie Drake Maye. Maye shows signs at times but statistically is really no better than Jones' rookie season. Team goes 4-13 and fires their first year coach before they get off the field in Week 18.

So you're now a full 5 years post-Brady. An overall record of 33-51. No head coach. A promising rookie QB who'll now learn his 2nd offense in 2 years under his 2nd head coach (and likely OC). The Brady "solution" has been Newton, Hoyer, Stidham, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe and now Maye all starting in 5 seasons.

Trust me. I'm a Jets fan and I know the script of the rebuild. Right now, you hope you get the right coach and you hope you finally got the right QB. The coach probably gets 3 years and you go from 4-13 to what? 7-8 wins? Then maybe 8-10 wins if everything falls right (and Maye progresses). If either the coach or QB fail, you're back to the starting line and it's now 8 years into the rebuild.

For all their success, they have really shown they cannot build anything through the draft (and have passed up a ton of talent like AJ Brown who was begging to go there). They struck lightning with Brady. They had the benefit of guys playing for less to win (Blount, Dillon, etc) and that's long gone. They don't typically throw big money around (signing guys like Juju Smith-Schuster with a wrecked knee for less). Can they dig out of this hole and return to the top of that division?

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

As us Jets fans know…it’s all about the qb and the Patriots have a good one in Maye. That gives them hope.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's not that hard really. Lions did it. Texans did it. Commanders did it. You can make a case Tampa bounced back very quickly. Staying good (the BB Pats and The Steelers seemingly forever) is much harder than getting good.

1. Maye is legit.
2. Next coach should be Johnson, Coen or Vrabel, with good coordinators.
3. Most cap space in the NFL by far
4. Good picks, including Atlanta's 3rd for Judon
5. Roster is mostly young. Gonzalez is a star CB. Barmore is very good when healthy. The young guys aren't all bad. Mapu was fantastic late in the year. Marcus Jones is very good. Boutte looks like a player. Pop Douglas is a player. The rookie OL Wallace and Robinson are promising, as is Strange at center. White will be good with the right coaching. Older guys Henry and Gibson are solid (Mondre a ?).

The lack of development, and general lack of accountability and professionalism doomed the team. I don't know if it was Mayo's idea or if he was coached to toss much of what Belichick had built (do your job) but the impact was a bunch of guys not doing their jobs. Simply correcting that will go a long way, and part of it will be bringing in free agents who understand winning, sacrifice and hard work. Not prima dona types.

 

[Deepster]

It's not that hard really. Lions did it. Texans did it. Commanders did it. You can make a case Tampa bounced back very quickly. Staying good (the BB Pats and The Steelers seemingly forever) is much harder than getting good.

1. Maye is legit.
2. Next coach should be Johnson, Coen or Vrabel, with good coordinators.
3. Most cap space in the NFL by far
4. Good picks, including Atlanta's 3rd for Judon
5. Roster is mostly young. Gonzalez is a star CB. Barmore is very good when healthy. The young guys aren't all bad. Mapu was fantastic late in the year. Marcus Jones is very good. Boutte looks like a player. Pop Douglas is a player. The rookie OL Wallace and Robinson are promising, as is Strange at center. White will be good with the right coaching. Older guys Henry and Gibson are solid (Mondre a ?).

The lack of development, and general lack of accountability and professionalism doomed the team. I don't know if it was Mayo's idea or if he was coached to toss much of what Belichick had built (do your job) but the impact was a bunch of guys not doing their jobs. Simply correcting that will go a long way, and part of it will be bringing in free agents who understand winning, sacrifice and hard work. Not prima dona types.

You are severely underplaying it. It is that hard. The Texans haven't done anything. And the Commanders/Redskins? They have been in rebuild mode forever. They have two 10 win seasons between 2000 and 2023.

1. Maye is legit. - Maybe. We're still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to pay off too. This is no where near a done deal.
2. Next coach should be Johnson, Coen or Vrabel, with good coordinators. - You have no clue how the coordinators will fare.
3. Most cap space in the NFL by far - You've been banging that drum for a while now. At some point you need to spend on more than Hunter Henry.
4. Good picks, including Atlanta's 3rd for Judon - Again. You passed up AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel and Tee Higgins for much lesser players. Flubbed on Mac Jones.
5. Roster is mostly young. Gonzalez is a star CB. Barmore is very good when healthy. The young guys aren't all bad. Mapu was fantastic late in the year. Marcus Jones is very good. Boutte looks like a player. Pop Douglas is a player. The rookie OL Wallace and Robinson are promising, as is Strange at center. White will be good with the right coaching. Older guys Henry and Gibson are solid (Mondre a ?). - There are 11 teams younger than NE right now including Indy, Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Packers, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs. Your average age is not the weapon you think it is.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You are severely underplaying it. It is that hard. The Texans haven't done anything. And the Commanders/Redskins? They have been in rebuild mode forever. They have two 10 win seasons between 2000 and 2023.

1. Maye is legit. - Maybe. We're still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to pay off too. This is no where near a done deal.
2. Next coach should be Johnson, Coen or Vrabel, with good coordinators. - You have no clue how the coordinators will fare.
3. Most cap space in the NFL by far - You've been banging that drum for a while now. At some point you need to spend on more than Hunter Henry.
4. Good picks, including Atlanta's 3rd for Judon - Again. You passed up AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel and Tee Higgins for much lesser players. Flubbed on Mac Jones.
5. Roster is mostly young. Gonzalez is a star CB. Barmore is very good when healthy. The young guys aren't all bad. Mapu was fantastic late in the year. Marcus Jones is very good. Boutte looks like a player. Pop Douglas is a player. The rookie OL Wallace and Robinson are promising, as is Strange at center. White will be good with the right coaching. Older guys Henry and Gibson are solid (Mondre a ?). - There are 11 teams younger than NE right now including Indy, Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Packers, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs. Your average age is not the weapon you think it is.

Pats will be in the playoffs again before the Jets. I'm confident of that. The rules literally mandate that they spend a lot this year. They passed on McConkey last year too. Terrible decision. Hopefully they can fix that with a new HC and different evaluations. They didn't draft good WR during the Dynasty years either, other than Branch.

There's no point in being a fan if you can't have hope. The big decision was made.

 

[Deepster]

Pats will be in the playoffs again before the Jets. I'm confident of that. The rules literally mandate that they spend a lot this year. They passed on McConkey last year too. Terrible decision. Hopefully they can fix that with a new HC and different evaluations. They didn't draft good WR during the Dynasty years either, other than Branch.

There's no point in being a fan if you can't have hope. The big decision was made.

I sure hope your measuring stick for success isn’t the Jets, my friend.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I sure hope your measuring stick for success isn’t the Jets, my friend.

One day at a time. I'll be looking for them to get better. Not much else I can do. I think it's Johnson or Vrabel at HC.

 

[Husky25]

Sheffter just broke on Countdown that it's Vrabel.

With a QB in place, most cap room in the league, and a now a qualified coach, New England has the inside track to being next year's Washington Commanders.

 

[Deepster]

New England has the inside track to being next year's Washington Commanders.

Great hire, I'd be happy too if I were you....but you sure do get over-optimistic quickly. The Commanders were 12-5 this year. Pats were 4-13 in back to back seasons. Tap the brakes just a little, my guy.

 

[Husky25]

Great hire, I'd be happy too if I were you....but you sure do get over-optimistic quickly. The Commanders were 12-5 this year. Pats were 4-13 in back to back seasons. Tap the brakes just a little, my guy.

Washington was also 4-13 last season, with a coach in over his head (Rivera was also in charge of player personnel), 5th round 2nd year starting QB, and hadn't had a winning season since 2016 (8-7-1) That includes winning the division in 2020 at 7-9. This year was the 1st that they won at least 11 games since their last Super Bowl victory in 1991-92.

They also began last season with copious amounts of cap room, an energizing QB, and competent coaching staff.

Elliot Wolf notwithstanding, there is an argument that the Patriots might actually be ahead of where Washington was simply because of Drake Maye.

I am really interested in who Vrabel tabs for OC. They can't afford to stunt Maye with an inferior play caller, or even worse, Mac Jones-style with a defensive or special teams coordinator running the offense.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

Washington was also 4-13 last season, with a coach in over his head (Rivera was also in charge of player personnel), 5th round 2nd year starting QB, and hadn't had a winning season since 2016 (8-7-1) That includes winning the division in 2020 at 7-9. This year was the 1st that they won at least 11 games since their last Super Bowl victory in 1991-92.

They also began last season with copious amounts of cap room, an energizing QB, and competent coaching staff.

Elliot Wolf notwithstanding, there is an argument that the Patriots might actually be ahead of where Washington was simply because of Drake Maye.

I am really interested in who Vrabel tabs for OC. They can't afford to stunt Maye, with an inferior play caller, or even worse, Mac Jones-style with a defensive or special teams coordinator.

Might I suggest Adam Gase?

 

[Husky25]

Might I suggest Adam Gase?

Wanna fight?

 

[Deepster]

Washington was also 4-13 last season, with a coach in over his head (Rivera was also in charge of player personnel), 5th round 2nd year starting QB, and hadn't had a winning season since 2016 (8-7-1) That includes winning the division in 2020 at 7-9. This year was the 1st that they won at least 11 games since their last Super Bowl victory in 1991-92.

They also began last season with copious amounts of cap room, an energizing QB, and competent coaching staff.

Elliot Wolf notwithstanding, there is an argument that the Patriots might actually be ahead of where Washington was simply because of Drake Maye.

I am really interested in who Vrabel tabs for OC. They can't afford to stunt Maye, with an inferior play caller, or even worse, Mac Jones-style with a defensive or special teams coordinator.

I cannot wait to see what the Pats do with this cap room you love so much.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I cannot wait to see what the Pats do with this cap room you love so much.

They are literally required to spend quite a lot of it to reach the league minimums. Can they do that wisely? I hope so.

 

[Husky25]

I cannot wait to see what the Pats do with this cap room you love so much.

The salay cap is an equalizer in the NFL and it isn't going away. That being the case, what team wouldn't want cap space? Especially one looking to improve quickly?

If a team overpays too many mediocre or subpar players (See: Giants, New York), players who turn out to be mediocre (See: Browns, Cleveland), or overpay superstars for past performance (See: 2000s era Washington; See also: Jets, New York), they have to play games with contracts to manipulate the cap. The combination of too many cap games and too many cuts leads to dead space, which makes it harder to field a competent team. Worst case is a poor team and cap hell.

The Patriots are not in a situation where they have to be frugal, but should spend wisely as well. OTOH, the cap room affords them a mistake or two.

 

[Deepster]

The salay cap is an equalizer in the NFL and it isn't going away. That being the case, what team wouldn't want cap space? Especially one looking to improve quickly?

If a team overpays too many mediocre or subpar players (See: Giants, New York), players who turn out to be mediocre (See: Browns, Cleveland), or overpay superstars for past performance (See: 2000s era Washington; See also: Jets, New York), they have to play games with contracts to manipulate the cap. The combination of too many cap games and too many cuts leads to dead space, which makes it harder to field a competent team. Worst case is a poor team and cap hell.

The Patriots are not in a situation where they have to be frugal, but should spend wisely as well. OTOH, the cap room affords them a mistake or two.

Oh, I know. And the pats have had cap space for a while and signed cheap second tier players like Juju Smith Schuster and Zeke Elliott. Now that they’re going to make the jump to a 12 win team I’m curious to see the FA moves to get them there.

 

[Waquoit]

They are literally required to spend quite a lot of it to reach the league minimums. Can they do that wisely? I hope so.

Not with this crew they can't.

 

[Husky25]

HC, OC, and DC in place.

There was talk on EEI this morning about Josh McDaniels coming back for the third time and that he is the product of Brady. I don't think that is 100% true. Mac was a Pro Bowl QB his rookie year. Serviceable at the very least. The Offensive philosophy after McDaniels left broke him in his 2nd year to the point where Bill O'Brien (McDaniels' Mentor) could not fix him.

I think Maye will do very well under JMD. I don't know much about Terrell Williams, but because Vrabel is a defensive minded coach, I think they will figure it out.

I like how Vrabel gets to pick his own staff. Now they need to get the personnel. They need a lot of material who is not already in house, but they have the cap money and draft capital to get it. I hope they aren't stingy with the purse.

 

[Deepster]

Mac was a Pro Bowl QB his rookie year.

Oh cmon. He was the 4th QB on the AFC after “some QBs opted out” and everyone knows that nobody wants to play in that stupid game anymore.

I’d be curious to see the stat splits of McDaniel with and without Brady. His head coach stints were dumpster fires. When he was OC on the Rams they were 2-14. Just sayin.

 

[NHUConnfan]

I have no idea why they hired Jerod Mayo. It's not a good look to hire your first black HC, provide absolutely no roster for him, fire him, and then bring in the person everyone thought the Pats would hire last year. Regardless of if you think race played a role in any of these decisions, now Mayo's reputation has been sullied and he will most likely never get another chance to seriously interview for a HC job. I feel gross about it as a fan.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Happy with Josh. Reports are he went to the college ranks and has worked on modernizing and incorporating new things. I truly believe the highly complex offenses he ran with Brady were driven by Brady. Charlie did the same before. That doesn’t play anymore in the league and Maye’s skill set lets them do different things.

Happy with Williams. He’s regarded as an elite DL coach and he talked a bit about violent players today. The Patriots have to compete and win on the line of scrimmage. For all the talk about “weapons” most of the problems are on both sides of the line. I’m not worried about the secondary. Get high motor, violent dudes who wreak havoc. He’s got loads of experience.

Springer did a really nice job last year fixing a unit that was awful the year before. Wise to bring him back.

This is adults back in charge. A professional group of coaches. This is going to be a physical football team again.

 

[Husky25]

Happy with Williams. He’s regarded as an elite DL coach and he talked a bit about violent players today. The Patriots have to compete and win on the line of scrimmage. For all the talk about “weapons” most of the problems are on both sides of the line. I’m not worried about the secondary. Get high motor, violent dudes who wreak havoc. He’s got loads of experience.

Sounds like Joe Witt, Jr. and he's about to coach in the NFC Championship Game. My two favorite teams have only been respectable at the same time in my lifetime from 1984-1988. Good times ahead?

Giggity, Giggity.

 

[Husky25]

Oh cmon. He was the 4th QB on the AFC after “some QBs opted out” and everyone knows that nobody wants to play in that stupid game anymore.

I’d be curious to see the stat splits of McDaniel with and without Brady. His head coach stints were dumpster fires. When he was OC on the Rams they were 2-14. Just sayin.

As I said, 3,800 yards and a 22/13 TD:INT ratio as a rookie is quite serviceable and last time I checked, the 4th QB on the AFC Pro Bowl roster is a Pro Bowler nonetheless. He led the AFC passers with 112 yards in the game itself.

I put very little stock in Coordinator vs. HC success. Interviews with Kliff Kingsbury last summer reveal a stark contrast in the two jobs and some people are better at the Xs & Os than the added administration accompanying head coaching jobs. Dom Capers jumps immediately to mind. He was a phenomenal defensive coordinator, but a mediocre (considering he only led expansion teams. His W/L record as HC was decidedly sub-par) at best head coach.

Rumor is that McDaniels tried to be a Belichick clone in Denver and the culture was evidently not well received. Then there was a botched trade for Cassel that led to a realized trade, sending Jay Cutler to Chicago for Kyle freaking Orton. Lost is that the Broncos started '09 with six wins.

I will totally grant you that the 2011 Rams were terrible.

 

[HuskyHawk]

As I said, 3,800 yards and a 22/13 TD:INT ratio as a rookie is quite serviceable and last time I checked, the 4th QB on the AFC Pro Bowl roster is a Pro Bowler nonetheless. He led the AFC passers with 112 yards in the game itself.

I put very little stock in Coordinator vs. HC success. Interviews with Kliff Kingsbury last summer reveal a stark contrast in the two jobs and some people are better at the Xs & Os than the added administration accompanying head coaching jobs. Dom Capers jumps immediately to mind. He was a phenomenal defensive coordinator, but a mediocre (considering he only led expansion teams. His W/L record as HC was decidedly sub-par) at best head coach.

Rumor is that he tried to be a Belichick clone in Denver and the culture was evidently not well received. Then there was a botched trade for Cassel led to a realized trade, sending Jay Cutler to Chicago for Kyle freaking Orton. Lost is that the Broncos started '09 with six wins.

I will totally grant you that the 2011 Rams were terrible.

Not worried about Josh as OC as long as he simplifies things. Can't run what we ran with Brady. There's almost no WR in the NFL that can even do what Brady required. It's just not how football is played now.

Agree some coordinators just aren't HC material. Spagnuolo is obviously a fantastic DC. Kingsbury may get another HC job but I have huge doubts. Both guys the Pats just hired are likely done with that, they should provide long term continuity. Had we gone with someone like Lafleur at OC he'd be gone in two years.

 

[Husky25]

Not worried about Josh as OC as long as he simplifies things. Can't run what we ran with Brady. There's almost no WR in the NFL that can even do what Brady required. It's just not how football is played now.

Agree some coordinators just aren't HC material. Spagnuolo is obviously a fantastic DC. Kingsbury may get another HC job but I have huge doubts. Both guys the Pats just hired are likely done with that, they should provide long term continuity. Had we gone with someone like Lafleur at OC he'd be gone in two years.

Kingsbury will get a look. Maybe this cycle, but probably next cycle. For one thing, he is still getting HC money from Arizona (and will for the next two seasons), which allows him to be picky. Going deep in the playoffs is working against him this season, and with three jobs filled, what do the remaining teams have to offer?

I think Vegas is most attractive. They have the 2nd most cap space, are in line to pick a young quarterback, and at least one supportive minority owner.

Jacksonville is evidently no longer a craphole, but it is still dysfunctional. Liam Coen pulled himself out from consideration and Khan just fired their GM who was supposedly helping him in the coaches search. I also don't think Trevor Lawrence is their answer at QB.

New Orleans is nearly $60 million over the projected cap, with a roster that is not very good to begin with, and the Dallas job is handicapped by the GM...I mean owner...I mean director of Player Personnel. They aren't in cap hell, but they aren't sitting pretty either.

At the end of the day, I think Kingsbury is happy to sit tight, gets more weapons (Washington is still 3rd behind New England and Vegas in terms of Cap room at $90M) and lords over the further development of Jayden Daniels.