On a side note, if geographic contiguity is real, then Texas is off the table because Oklahoma is not AAU, therefore no bridge to Texas can be made from Kansas.
Geographic contiguity is a hallmark of conference strength and stability. The B1G, Pac-12, and SEC are all contiguous. The ACC added BC on an island, but next added Pitt and Syracuse and had contiguity again... until Maryland's departure. But then adding Louisville provided a land bridge to "reach out" to Notre Dame. And, of course, the Big East/AAC had/has great gaps in contiguity and has been subsequently picked apart. The Big XII had an orderly contiguous footprint in the central United States until other issues blew them up; now their footprint is a mess, and most folks (including me and including several Big XII fans) label the Big XII as the most unstable conference right now.
Brings them back to UVa, UNC and GT. That most likely means they will have to wait 12 or so years unless the B1G can squash the ACC GORs.
1) That gets to be tricky argument when B1G pioneered Grants of Rights in college athletics media contracts. 2) That also requires genuine interest on behalf of the desired schools
Honestly, the more and more I look at expansion, the more I think it is mostly dead for about a decade. 1) the B1G wants cable subscribers in a growing market, geographic contiguity and AAU membership; 2) ACC likely won't move until ND becomes a full member (wishful thinking IMO);
If/when the conference championship game rules are relaxed (whereby the ACC could eliminate divisions and have their "top two" teams play the conference championship game), I think the ACC could then invite UConn. No, I am not banking on Notre Dame going all-in; rather, with Notre Dame playing 5 ACC games per year, a 15 (full-time) member ACC allows Notre Dame to circulate through the conference precisely in three-year cycles.
SEC doesn't care for going larger than 14 teams as it dilutes their mission as a rivalry-based conference...
If the SEC still gave a flip about rivalries (in terms of expansion targets), it would look toward Florida State and Clemson or it would have pursued Texas to accompany Texas A&M, not Missouri. The only rivalry South Carolina brought to the SEC was Georgia (and Georgia would have disputed that as a rivalry 20 years ago). Arkansas has been an exciting addition to the SEC, but they did not bring any rivalries with them. Now, perhaps more to your point, I do think the SEC sees the value of its long-standing rivalries and recognizes that going beyond 14 teams *while*only*playing*8*conference*games* dilutes them; we agree there, I think.
but may have to when all the other conferences start growing to 16+ members;
Delany and Slive (and presumably Scott, and I think you can also include Swofford; not as sure about Bowlsby) are not ignorant or stupid. I am pretty sure they both recall the WAC's failure as a 16-team conference (and now its dissolution). I have read zero credible information to suggest that 16-team (or larger) conferences will be happening. Where I read that stuff repeatedly is on message boards (like this) and Twitter. But it always starts out as someone playing "fantasy commissioner" with no basis in the real commissioners. Has anyone EVER heard the word "POD" come out of Delany's or Slive's mouths? Yet every basement blogger starts talking about pods as if it is fait accompli and the panacea to all scheduling concerns for 16-team conferences. The scheduling concerns are real; the "pod" panacea is fiction.
and PAC doesn't like any of the options in the Rocky Mountains and have enough members to hold a conference championship game. The B12 wants to stay at 10, but the NCAA may force them to go to 12 if a conference needs to have 12 members to have a conference championship game. So if anyone expands over the next decade, it may be the B12.
So as UConn fans, would UConn take a B12 invite if the other school(s) invited were BYU, UCF, USF and/or Cincinnati?
Yes, the Big XII will probably expand or eventually fade into oblivion (or outright dissolve).