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JoePgh
Cranky pants and wise acre
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I do NOT think UConn will beat Oregon State by 21 points. My guess would be about 8 points. Oregon State will slow the game down, will not make dumb mistakes like failing to guard Stewie on an in-bounds play, and will take high-percentage shots. I would predict a score like 63-55. Oregon State will have a small lead at some point in the second half.
In a game between two good-shooting, disciplined teams playing intelligently to their respective strengths, the superior talent on the UConn side will prevail, but not by much.
The game will be good for women's basketball.
In a game between two good-shooting, disciplined teams playing intelligently to their respective strengths, the superior talent on the UConn side will prevail, but not by much.
The game will be good for women's basketball.
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21 seems reasonable to me. Let's see where it ends up.
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I'm thinking every time UConn women play their 'A' game it's good for women's basketball - no?
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This team could be a tricky one depending on how things go (like if they hit 3s at a good clip). They've got unusual amounts of height all the way around. Their point guard is not particularly fast, but would tower over MoJett at a listed 6'1". They've also got that height at the other positions, including the obvious Hamblin.
Someone at another forum described this squad as "[Last year's] Dayton, but with more talent." That might be the case. (for reference, we beat them by 21)
Might make sense to put Gabby on Wiese, when Gabby comes into the game.
Someone at another forum described this squad as "[Last year's] Dayton, but with more talent." That might be the case. (for reference, we beat them by 21)
Might make sense to put Gabby on Wiese, when Gabby comes into the game.
Charliebball
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I believe I called OSU UConn Lite on another thread....they are a smart, hard working team that have an inside presence, can shoot the three and play tough defense........being a bit of a pessimist I would say UConn wins by 8-15 points but I would be very happy to be way off on the size of the victory
ochoopsfan
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That line seems way too high.
I believe the line for UConn against Texas was 17 points(posted by someone on Rebkell) That was a semi home game for UConn against a weaker team(Texas vs OSU), IMO, Now you play what I believe to be a better team(they/Oregon State beat Baylor who beat Texas 3 times this year) and they beat them in Texas.
I think the line should be around 13-14.
OSU lost by one point at ND without Weise.
I thought Syracuse would be a 2.5-3 point favorite, so 1.5 isnt unreal.
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Does everyone know that Baylor scored all their first half points through OSU turnovers or Baylor offensive rebounds? Yes, every point. Not one from a set play/half-court offense. IMHO UConn will probably score more points in the normal fashion than that.
Key point - Geno has stated that as a team--you are who you have been all season. Sure, teams can play out of their minds for a quarter or two, maybe even 3, or that super game from the heavens. The odds are-- probably not against UConn.
Baylor showed that OSU can be disrupted and can be forced into turnovers. The OSU guards are not quick, not real athletic, they are smart, and they don't have great handles. Oh my! Guess what OSU season stats were for turnovers? They were #328 in the nation--almost last. They were -4.75 per game in turnovers. Weisner, listed at 5"10, is the top OSU scorer and has 76 assists and 87 turnovers. Hamblin is another top scorer and has 19 total assists for the season and 62 turnovers. Another starter Hunter has 65 & 65. That's 3 of their starters. The season stats show it and the Baylor game proved it again. They can be turned over. Does anyone think that the intense pressing defense might show up again this coming game?
Finally, OSU scores 67 points a game! They only have 3 players in double figures. The next two score 7 & 6 each. That's only 3 players to cover instead of 5. They shoot 35% as a team on 3 point shots. Not too scary.
The game will be competitive for awhile and then UConn will pull away. A 20 point win sounds about right, but I would not be surprised if it is a whole lot more.
Key point - Geno has stated that as a team--you are who you have been all season. Sure, teams can play out of their minds for a quarter or two, maybe even 3, or that super game from the heavens. The odds are-- probably not against UConn.
Baylor showed that OSU can be disrupted and can be forced into turnovers. The OSU guards are not quick, not real athletic, they are smart, and they don't have great handles. Oh my! Guess what OSU season stats were for turnovers? They were #328 in the nation--almost last. They were -4.75 per game in turnovers. Weisner, listed at 5"10, is the top OSU scorer and has 76 assists and 87 turnovers. Hamblin is another top scorer and has 19 total assists for the season and 62 turnovers. Another starter Hunter has 65 & 65. That's 3 of their starters. The season stats show it and the Baylor game proved it again. They can be turned over. Does anyone think that the intense pressing defense might show up again this coming game?
Finally, OSU scores 67 points a game! They only have 3 players in double figures. The next two score 7 & 6 each. That's only 3 players to cover instead of 5. They shoot 35% as a team on 3 point shots. Not too scary.
The game will be competitive for awhile and then UConn will pull away. A 20 point win sounds about right, but I would not be surprised if it is a whole lot more.
Uconn wins his game by 30 plus. They will pressure them out of the gym. The OSU bigs are slow and foul everything not nailed down. They have not seen a team that is multi dimensional offensively like Uconn. Would be a shock to me if this is less than 20 point win.
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Yep I will go along with Uconn by at least 30.
Blueballer
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Well anything is possible, but I have a hard time believing a team that lost by 3 points on their home court to TENNESSEE is going to have much of a chance against us. It's possible they are better than when they lost that game but I would feel pretty good taking the over too.
UcMiami
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Philly Coach - The NCAA tournament history is full of stories of teams putting it all together for up to six games - 3 years ago Louisville pulled it all together for 5 games and then ran out of gas, while Uconn was putting it together for six games. If you have a really good defense, which OSU does (leads the nation in FG % defense), then you just have to get your shooters on a hot streak to make serious waves. TN this year pulled it together for 3 games, Washington has done it for 4 games, Syracuse for four, Stanford for three.
I agree that the turnovers are likely to be a real issue for them. TN beat them because of that, and because they refused to play a zone defense against faster guards.
But listen to Kim's presser and one lament she had was that their fourth scorer hit some real dagger shots. Geno in his lamented about one of the TX players who had hit 5 threes all year coming in and nailing them against Uconn. Weird things happen against Uconn, and against every team in the NCAAs - Stanford shoots out 15% higher against ND then their yearly average and ND is sitting at home watching.
That said - I have no idea how they are going to deal with Tuck and Stewart - Hambin will get eaten alive if she tries to guard either away from the basket, and if she does come away from the basket then Moriah will be doing lay-up practice. And the team speed and switching by Uconn should give them serious problems on offense.
They have a smart coach and smart upper class players and they have six days to prepare. It should be interesting to watch, and I am not taking anything for granted.
I agree that the turnovers are likely to be a real issue for them. TN beat them because of that, and because they refused to play a zone defense against faster guards.
But listen to Kim's presser and one lament she had was that their fourth scorer hit some real dagger shots. Geno in his lamented about one of the TX players who had hit 5 threes all year coming in and nailing them against Uconn. Weird things happen against Uconn, and against every team in the NCAAs - Stanford shoots out 15% higher against ND then their yearly average and ND is sitting at home watching.
That said - I have no idea how they are going to deal with Tuck and Stewart - Hambin will get eaten alive if she tries to guard either away from the basket, and if she does come away from the basket then Moriah will be doing lay-up practice. And the team speed and switching by Uconn should give them serious problems on offense.
They have a smart coach and smart upper class players and they have six days to prepare. It should be interesting to watch, and I am not taking anything for granted.
If they have anywhere near the turnovers against Uconn that they had against Baylor it won't be a close game. This is the Final Four, and
Stewie, Moriah, and Morgan thrive in this situation, being there the first time as coach and players is a very different environment.
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I think the only way we are going to have an eight point game is if the pressure of winning their fourth consecutive championship finally catches up to UConn but I'm of the mind that Breanna and Morgan and Moriah are too strong minded to succumb to nerves NOW! Twenty one points might be a bit high but eight points is not going to happen. Maybe 14 or 15 points!
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I know a win is a win is a win and one point is enough but that very, very rarely happens and with their pedigree and having been there before and the talent involved, I'm inclined to think EVERY advantage is UConn's.
I'll take the over: 75-50.
First time playing UConn often ends poorly.
If Oregon State turns the ball over as much as they did against Baylor, it could get ugly. OSU won't be anywhere near as physical with Stewart. Jefferson will lock down Weisner and Nurse will most likely get Weise. Unless OSU shoots lights-out from 3, they have no way of keeping it close.
First time playing UConn often ends poorly.
If Oregon State turns the ball over as much as they did against Baylor, it could get ugly. OSU won't be anywhere near as physical with Stewart. Jefferson will lock down Weisner and Nurse will most likely get Weise. Unless OSU shoots lights-out from 3, they have no way of keeping it close.
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