Cupcake Update (Whaddyaknow!)

[Sphinx]

UConn took some heat on its "Buy" game schedule this year, and, in fact, had a KenPom SOS ranking of #355 after five games. Worse possible in 363.

The KenPom SOS is now up to #176, mostly on the strength of playing four straight P5 opponents but also, it turns out, on a upgraded valuation of its cupcake opponents.

Both UNC Wilmington and Buffalo have moved into the top half of KenPom rankings, approaching Quad3 status. UNC Wilmington has won five straight since losing to UConn. It's 6-3 record includes losses only to Oklahoma, North Carolina and UConn. Buffalo (4-4) has won its last three, including recent romps over Canisius (20 pts) and St. Bonaventure (17 pts).

The other three remain bottom ranked, but with positives worth mentioning. BU (5-4) won three straight after its UConn loss. Stonehill chalked up four wins in its first month ever of D-1 play, including wins over Army and Holy Cross and true road wins at Army and at Binghamton. Only Delaware State (1-7) has had little to celebrate, although its KenPom #32 SOS can be taken as fair excuse.

All in all, upon review, the "cupcake" leg of UConn's schedule might been seen as a bit stronger that originally thought and perhaps a little better preparation for the success that followed.

 

[gmc1055]

Those cupcake games were essential to where they are now. Uconn hàd a whole new team that needed to develop chemistry.

 

[shizzle787]

Stop trying to justify our lame OOC schedule. We've played two good teams so far.

 

[navery12]

Stop trying to justify our lame OOC schedule. We've played two good teams so far.

We've played 4 top 50 teams in the past 10 days, which 2 aren't good?

 

[shizzle787]

We've played 4 top 50 teams in the past 10 days, which 2 aren't good?

Oregon and Oklahoma State both stink. Oregon lost to UC Irvine and Okie State lost to Southern Illinois.

 

[husky429]

We've played 4 top 50 teams in the past 10 days, which 2 aren't good?

Stop bringing facts to this debate Navery--not cool. We've only played 2 good opponents. Didn't you hear the guy?

 

[navery12]

Oregon and Oklahoma State both stink. Oregon lost to UC Irvine and Okie State lost to Southern Illinois.

I'll give you this, the board would be pretty boring without you having crazy irrational takes every few days based on 1 game samples

 

[shizzle787]

I'll give you this, the board would be pretty boring without you having crazy irrational takes every few days based on 1 game samples

You mean 8-game samples: Oregon is 4-4 and Okie State are 5-3; both will be NIT teams at best. It's clear we have a different definition of good.

 

[navery12]

You mean 8-game samples: Oregon is 4-4 and Okie State are 5-3; both will be NIT teams at best. It's clear we have a different definition of good.

And yet are still top 50 on KenPom and will be borderline Q1 wins. I don't care if they make the NCAA tournament or go to Mumbai for a bonding trip in March as long as their wins look good on our resume. Which they clearly will

 

[bigknight3]

You mean 8-game samples: Oregon is 4-4 and Okie State are 5-3; both will be NIT teams at best. It's clear we have a different definition of good.

Are you going to provide your definition of good for us? Do only top 10 teams count?

If Oregon and OK St are both top 50 teams deserving of at worst an invite to the NIT. how are they not good out of total 363 teams we could have played?

 

[shizzle787]

Are you going to provide your definition of good for us? Do only top 10 teams count?

If Oregon and OK St are both top 50 teams deserving of at worst an invite to the NIT. how are they not good out of total 363 teams we could have played?

Yea. Tournament teams. Neither of those two will be tournament teams. There are 80 major conference programs and around 60 true mid-majors. The other 200+ programs are Division 2 programs masquerading as Division 1. Of programs that actually have a following, Oregon and Okie State are middle of the pack at best. Average does not equal good. Okie State also lost to UCF and barely survived DePaul. DePaul.

And yet are still top 50 on KenPom and will be borderline Q1 wins. I don't care if they make the NCAA tournament or go to Mumbai for a bonding trip in March as long as their wins look good on our resume. Which they clearly will

KenPom is still using data from last year in their metrics. Everyone who follows college basketball closely knows this. KenPom only starts to matter around mid-January.

 

[Kolumbo]

It's a good thing we scheduled Buffalo and BU instead of syracuse and bcu!!!

 

[navery12]

KenPom is still using data from last year in their metrics. Everyone who follows college basketball closely knows this. KenPom only starts to matter around mid-January.

Then let's use Bart Torvik and filter to only in season numbers. Oklahoma State is 39 and Oregon does drop to 74. But by all means, keep digging

 

[shizzle787]

Then let's use Bart Torvik and filter to only in season numbers. Oklahoma State is 39 and Oregon does drop to 74. But by all means, keep digging

The last part further proves my point. Let's put it this way, by the time March comes around, neither will be considered good (or key) wins.

 

[UofCT]

The last part further proves my point. Let's put it this way, by the time March comes around, neither will be considered good (or key) wins.

Oregon is a good program. They have been to the tournament like 7 out of the last 8 seasons. Dana Altman is a fantastic coach and wins 20+ games every season.

I wouldn’t count them out

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I am not crazy about three teams outside the top 300. Play the MAAC to fill out the schedule. Other than that, the schedule is fine.

 

[shizzle787]

Oregon is a good program. They have been to the tournament like 7 out of the last 8 seasons. Dana Altman is a fantastic coach and wins 20+ games every season.

I wouldn’t count them out

Program: absolutely. This year: no. They look bad. I have watched a couple of their games. They are bad. They will be lucky to be on the bubble. Oklahoma State is staring down the barrel of a 7-11 record at best in the Big 12 as well. Why this is hard to comprehend for some people is remarkable.

 

[shizzle787]

I am not crazy about three teams outside the top 300. Play the MAAC to fill out the schedule. Other than that, the schedule is fine.

or the top half of the Ivy League. It is embarrassing that we are too afraid to play Yale but Kentucky will play them.

 

[Waquoit]

I am not crazy about three teams outside the top 300. Play the MAAC to fill out the schedule. Other than that, the schedule is fine.

I remember when we started with 5 teams outside the Top 300. Ended up losing to George Mason.

 

[shizzle787]

I remember when we started with 5 teams outside the Top 300. Ended up losing to George Mason.

I remember when we started with 11 cupcakes in 06-07, were ranked #8 going into BE play and got blasted on the road by WV.

 

[shizzle787]

Then let's use Bart Torvik and filter to only in season numbers. Oklahoma State is 39 and Oregon does drop to 74. But by all means, keep digging

This is the same Bart Torvik that has Virginia #23. C'mon. We both know they are a top-5 team. These statistical models are guides and only guides. We have eyes. We can see. He also has Michigan State behind both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

The true test is if you are creating a bracket based on play up until today, who gets in? Not Okie State or Oregon.

He also has UCLA fourth. LOL.

 

[REB1094]

#1 Houston - 153 SOS
#2 Texas - 299 SOS
#3 Virginia - 126 SOS
#4 Arizona - 52 SOS
#5 Purdue - 16 SOS
#6 Baylor - 69 SOS
#7 Creighton - 50 SOS
#8 UConn - 176 SOS
#9 Kansas - 76 SOS
#10 Indiana - 293 SOS

Bottom half of top 10 teams but not the worst. Includes 3 Quad 1 wins as it stands right now with OSU being 3 spots away from Quad 1. Another Quad 1 opportunity against Florida this week.

If we go into BE play 4-0 or 5-0 in Q1 games, that's pretty solid proof that UConn is able to hang with (and beat) good teams. Not just beating on cupcakes for 2 months. We had 5 Q1 wins all of last year and that led to a 5 seed. We'll have at least 2, up to 5-6 Q1 opportunities in conference play

EDIT: found out a few posts below that I was calculating the Quad games based on Kenpom so may not be fully accurate. But leaves me feeling good that we are beating good teams, even if their records don't seem like it yet

 

[shizzle787]

#1 Houston - 153 SOS
#2 Texas - 299 SOS
#3 Virginia - 126 SOS
#4 Arizona - 52 SOS
#5 Purdue - 16 SOS
#6 Baylor - 69 SOS
#7 Creighton - 50 SOS
#8 UConn - 176 SOS
#9 Kansas - 76 SOS
#10 Indiana - 293 SOS

Bottom half of top 10 teams but not the worst. Includes 3 Quad 1 wins as it stands right now with OSU being 3 spots away from Quad 1. Another Quad 1 opportunity against Florida this week.

If we go into BE play 4-0 or 5-0 in Q1 games, that's pretty solid proof that UConn is able to hang with (and beat) good teams. Not just beating on cupcakes for 2 months. We had 5 Q1 wins all of last year and that led to a 5 seed. We'll have at least 2, up to 5-6 Q1 opportunities in conference play

Oregon is #76 in NET. They are Q2 as a neutral game. Oklahoma State is #46 in NET. They are Q2 as a home game.
Right now that Oregon win is closer to Q3 than Q1.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

'We have eyes.'
yes. yes (some of us) we do.
mentioned long ago, pre our leagues upside down ooc performance thus far.
the entire field is broadly el stinko this season.
check back in winter, when it slowly dawns on the experts.
on the udder hand, becuz the field is so putrid this season, it increases our chances of doing something.
any opportunity is a good one. i'll take it.

 

[navery12]

This is the same Bart Torvik that has Virginia #23. C'mon. We both know they are a top-5 team. These statistical models are guides and only guides. We have eyes. We can see. He also has Michigan State behind both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

The true test is if you are creating a bracket based on play up until today, who gets in? Not Okie State or Oregon.

He also has UCLA fourth. LOL.

You're right that these models are only guides, I'm not so sure you have eyes though. And if you do you certainly have no idea what you're watching.

Oregon is #76 in NET. They are Q2 as a neutral game. Oklahoma State is #46 in NET. They are Q2 as a home game.
Right now that Oregon win is closer to Q3 than Q1.

NET hasn't even been updated this season, you're using last year's numbers. I repeat, just stop digging