Below was my top 15 right after the season ended....taking everything into consideration now, I'd reshuffle it so it looks like:
1. Connecticut-lose Butler
2. South Carolina
3. Mississippi State
4. Texas
5. Notre Dame-lose Boley
6. Baylor-lose Mompremier
7. Stanford
8. UCLA
9. Oregon
10. Maryland-lose Slocum
11. Ohio State-lose McCoy
12. Louisville-lose Moore
13. Florida State
14. Tennessee-lose Cooper/Deshields/Middleton
15. Duke
The transfers that hurt a team's projected outlook most were for Tennessee, Ohio State, Louisville and Maryland...but none of them were Final Four favorites entering this year. The top several teams remain in tact or lose some depth, but still have their important cogs back.
Original list/explanation:
1. Connecticut: The outlook for this team is sky high, and probably even higher with the added motivation to get back on top after getting beat by Mississippi State. More significantly, they return their 4 best players and add in 6-6 Stevens who solves their height issues in the post. Besides Chong, everyone is back. That's 2 AP 1st Teamers, a 2nd teamer (who is probably their best player), plus Stevens, Nurse and the #1 recruit in Walker. Williams, IMO, is the heavy favorite for NPOY next year considering how talented and multifaceted she is. In most big games this year, she was the best player on the court. This team should be the overwhelming favorite to win it all next year, it could potentially be one of UConn's best teams of all time.
2. South Carolina: Even with the losses, the outlook for this team is fantastic solely due to the fact that they have Wilson back as a senior. A'ja has blossomed into the best frontcourt/post player in the country and she no longer shies away from contact. She is also developing into a good passer. Their point guard, Harris, has been stellar for SC and Cuevas is much improved. Obviously they're thin in other spots, but with Dawn at the helm and Wilson as a senior, I still think they're Final Four material. The only shot they have to repeat is if Gray or Davis decide to pass on the draft.
3. Mississippi State: They pulled off the upset of a lifetime and proved they were not a fluke by beating several very very good teams in the NCAA Tournament. They return their 3 best players but lose key role players in Okorie, Dillingham and Richardson. All were integral role players for Mississippi State who will need to be replaced. That said, they have one of the better coaches in the country in Schaefer and the best big game point guard in William. McCowan has great size inside and will continue to improve, Vivians is streaky but can light it up...they'll be a major threat to get back to the Final Four next year.
4. Notre Dame: They get a ranking this high due to their outstanding coaching. Next year is not going to be easy for the Irish. Turner will be coming off an ACL and if she doesn't redshirt, she likely wont be 100% most of the season. They lose an All-American point guard in Allen who was the engine that led Notre Dame's terrific offense. However, next year, ND will not be short for talent. Marina Mabrey and Arike Ogunbowale make up one of the best wing tandems in the country. Both are lethal from deep and capable of scoring 25 on any given night. Transfer Lili Thompson will man the point and should help ease the loss of Allen. Westbeld is a very good inside out forward, and Boley/Young will have more opportunity to take on a bigger role next season. Lack of post presence is going to be the achilles heel for this team, especially if Turner doesn't rebound quickly from the ACL. Their incoming freshmen should have ample opportunity to get big minutes in the first half of the year with Turner recovering.
5. Texas: I might be overhyping this team a bit, but if they can develop some consistency, they'll be darn good. Their upside is outstanding if they can find the chemistry on the court, and I think Aston is a very good coach who will make it happen. Especially with the additions they're bringing in. Everyone is back besides Lang/Taylor. That means Atkins, Holmes, McCarty, and Higgs. They also have Jatarie White coming on board to add more depth in the post. Next year might be the year they get over the hump and make the Final Four. I think this might be the only team with a realistic shot to compete with the Huskies.
6. Baylor: Not sure how they have gone 5 straight years without a Final Four considering the ample talent on their roster, but next year they'll have one of the most talented lineups in college basketball once again. Look for Kalani Brown to establish herself as the preeminent post in women's basketball. Cox, the #1 recruit this year, will have a year of experience and more opportunity to showcase her talent. Tough as nails PG Wallace is back along with Natalie Chou who is one of the better spot up shooters in the country. They'll be very good once again, but I'm really not sold on Kim as a coach after the last several seasons, so a Final Four will be a much tougher task without the likes of Jones, Davis and Prince on the roster.
7. Stanford: Tara's teams consistently overachieve, and I think they'll do the same once again. They lost some core players but return Mcphee, Smith and Sniezek. Tara is a masterful coach, so even if they don't appear to be intimidating on paper, she'll put together a really good team once again.
8. UCLA: Another good team with a lot coming back in Canada, Billings and Burke. Next year will be their best shot at a Final Four.
9. Tennessee: I do think Tennessee will be MUCH improved next year. I may be optimistic with this ranking, but Tennessee had zero depth this year, dreadful shooting, and overly relied on their big 3. Next year they'll have Cooper back, Russell and Nared return (they were both much improved players this year), Diamond is back, and a big recruiting class who should make an impact from the get go. This team had some good stretches with a depleted roster. With more depth I'm hoping for consistency. On paper this team should be a Final Four squad (the last time we had this much talent was in the Candace Parker era), but we have dreadful coaching so I'm thinking 8-15 is a more realistic range. If we are outside the top 20 at any point next season, Warlick needs to go.
10. Louisville: This team should probably be ranked higher, but I was just not impressed with them this season. So much talent in Moore/Hines-Allen/Durr but they lost to every good team the faced, and usually had trouble staying the game. 34 point loss to Baylor, 24 pt loss to SC, losses of 19 and 11 to Notre Dame. Their best wins on the season were a home win against Tennessee and an OT win over Kentucky early in the season. They have Final Four talent, but they need to prove they can compete with and beat other top fifteen teams before they deserve a ranking in the top 10.
11. Oregon: Everyone who averaged more than 5ppg is coming back, led by their two freshmen, Ionescu and Hebard. Consistency is key here, they had an up and down season which is to be expected for a group of young players, but with everyone back and a good coach in Graves, Oregon has potential to make another big tournament run.
12. Maryland: They lose their 3 best players, but the cupboard isn't bare. Charles and Fraser will blossom with more opportunity, and this team still has potential to be very good. Brenda is a better coach than many give credit to, so I think she'll still keep her squad in the top 4 seeds.
13. Ohio State: A team that is loaded with talent but poorly coached. They should be a Final Four contender on paper with Mitchell/Harper/Calhoun/Mavunga/McCoy, but they just don't play defense. Mitchell coming back is huge and she has the talent to lead her team to the Final Four, but I don't see it happening.
14. Florida State: Another team depleted by graduation, but FSU was a consistent top 5-8 team most of the season. Thomas is back and Semrau is one of the more underrated coaches in the country, so FSU should be good once again.
15. Duke: They return a lot of talent but I just don't see them as a top team with McCallie at the helm. Brown and Greenwell are outstanding and Duke has a lot of talent on paper. I think they'll be good, but I don't see this program taking the next step under P.
