Creme with new #1 seeds

[Vowelguy]

So Charlie Creme has #5 Stanford and #8 Tennessee as the 1-2 seeds in the West.

Yes it's Charlie Creme's fault.
Do you understand what "prediction" means?

 

[Phil]

That would make the committee's job easier.

I was thinking that Walz might not want UConn in his region, but I had a chat with a friend who challenged that assumption, and made an interesting case.
Only a handful of coaches can say, with a straight face, that their goal this year is to win a National Championship. Walz is in that group.
If he is realistic (and I think he is) he will concede that winning the NC probably means beating CT. (Obviously, there can be exceptions – last year many might have thought the path to an NC meant beating Baylor.)
If Walz thinks he has to beat UConn to win an NC, where do you think he wants to play that game? Nashville or Louisville? It isn't much of a stretch to say he has a better shot in Louisville than he does in Nashville.
Interestingly, it isn't the match up he would want if his goal is to maximize his chances of making the FF, but it is the match up that might be best for a chance at an NC.

 

[Phil]

So Charlie Creme has #5 Stanford and #8 Tennessee as the 1-2 seeds in the West.

That makes sense. If your constructing the weakest bracket imaginable.

Duke with 3 blowout losses on their home court gets the privilege of a neutral court, while UConn goes to play the #3 team in the country on their home court for a 4th time in 7 weeks.

Hooray Women's Basketball!

How would you construct the bracket? (Please indicate whether you do so following the rules or ignoring the rules.)

 

[ASweet3781]

Yes it's Charlie Creme's fault.
Do you understand what "prediction" means?

Yeah and I think your friend Charlie is full of it. He also downplayed Louisville's performance against us. It was a 7 point game with 15 to go. Geno put back an injured KML. He didn't feel safe. Anyone who watched knows UConn was working hard out there to get what they got. Stewart was great and that extended the lead to safe but it was around a 10-12 pts game for most of the game. That's not a bad first performance for Louisville in Gampel without a starter.

I think it's too bad you are more concerned with Charlie Creme and criticism of his "predictions". If he doesn't want criticism he should get another job.

I am more concerned with Stefanie Dolson and Bria Hartley playing the role of Kara Wolters in 1997 when her career ended prematurely. And I think playing Louisville in Louisville and giving a coach as good as Jeff Walz a 4th crack at us on their home court could be an even harder task than beating undefeated Notre Dame for the first time.

And the most unfortunate part of it all? It doesn't have to and should not happen.

 

[Phil]

Yeah and I think your friend Charlie is full of it. He also downplayed Louisville's performance against us. It was a 7 point game with 15 to go. Geno put back an injured KML. He didn't feel safe. Anyone who watched knows UConn was working hard out there to get what they got. Stewart was great and that extended the lead to safe but it was around a 10-12 pts game for most of the game. That's not a bad first performance for Louisville in Gampel without a starter.

I think it's too bad you are more concerned with Charlie Creme and criticism of his "predictions". If he doesn't want criticism he should get another job.

I am more concerned with Stefanie Dolson and Bria Hartley playing the role of Kara Wolters in 1997 when her career ended prematurely. And I think playing Louisville in Louisville and giving a coach as good as Jeff Walz a 4th crack at us on their home court could be an even harder task than beating undefeated Notre Dame for the first time.

And the most unfortunate part of it all? It doesn't have to and should not happen.

I can understand being unhappy with the possible outcome. What i don't get is why you blame Charlie.

Do you blame the weatherperson when they predict snow?

 

[ASweet3781]

How would you construct the bracket? (Please indicate whether you do so following the rules or ignoring the rules.)

Easy.

First I ignore the rules. The committee rendered their rules flexible when they granted home courts to 3 of the preseason top 5 teams. I expect 3 of those sites to be sell outs. So geography/attendance concerns should go out the window right there. Especially when considering a school in Connecticut and their proximity to Kentucky and Nebraska. Here's a clue to SelCom- Neither are close.

Second I use common sense and watch these teams in contention. Like last year, when everyone and their mother knew Stanford was going down, I'd have a team waiting in their bracket better than a Georgia team who on a good offensive day couldn't break 60 points and a good but not great Cal team. That would eliminate a situation where you had a JV game in one semi-final and a national title game in the other.

I know it's tough and all, but I actually call on the committee to understand the sport they are bracketing. I mean really, by all means let's watch Louisville and UConn for a 4th time instead of the renewal of UConn-Tennessee. That's great for the sport.

South Bend- 1. Notre Dame 2. South Carolina

Louisville- 1. Louisville 2. Duke

Lincoln- 1. UConn 2. Tennessee

Stanford- 1. Stanford 2. Baylor

If South Carolina, Baylor, or Duke finish strong they'd get the 1 in Louisville with the Cards as a 2.

 

[UConnCat]

I was thinking that Walz might not want UConn in his region, but I had a chat with a friend who challenged that assumption, and made an interesting case.
Only a handful of coaches can say, with a straight face, that their goal this year is to win a National Championship. Walz is in that group.
If he is realistic (and I think he is) he will concede that winning the NC probably means beating CT. (Obviously, there can be exceptions – last year many might have thought the path to an NC meant beating Baylor.)
If Walz thinks he has to beat UConn to win an NC, where do you think he wants to play that game? Nashville or Louisville? It isn't much of a stretch to say he has a better shot in Louisville than he does in Nashville.
Interestingly, it isn't the match up he would want if his goal is to maximize his chances of making the FF, but it is the match up that might be best for a chance at an NC.

Jeff touched on this issue recently but understandably didn't say where he'd prefer to play UConn.

"I suppose there is a chance, if we lost three times to UConn, that the NCAA would make us a No. 2 seed and send it [UConn] to Louisville [for the Regional final]," Walz said. "But is that the best thing for the game? I don't know. Do we worry about sending teams to the closest regional [Lincoln, Nebraska is next in line] or do we make it the best tournament we can make it? Would any more UConn fans travel to Louisville than they would Lincoln? You're flying there anyway, so what's the difference?

 

[ASweet3781]

Jeff touched on this issue recently but understandably didn't say where he'd prefer to play UConn.

"I suppose there is a chance, if we lost three times to UConn, that the NCAA would make us a No. 2 seed and send it [UConn] to Louisville [for the Regional final]," Walz said. "But is that the best thing for the game? I don't know. Do we worry about sending teams to the closest regional [Lincoln, Nebraska is next in line] or do we make it the best tournament we can make it? Would any more UConn fans travel to Louisville than they would Lincoln? You're flying there anyway, so what's the difference?

Spot on there by Walz. This year will be a real test of SelCom's ability to reason and use common sense. And to see if they really know what's good for the game or not.

 

[easttexastrash]

SUCONN appears headed to Louidville due to the proximity rule. If you beat Louisville three times you get rewarded by a chance to beat them again in the regional final. It's virtually a guarantee of getting to the FF.

 

[ndmb]

SUCONN appears headed to Louidville due to the proximity rule. If you beat Louisville three times you get rewarded by a chance to beat them again in the regional final. It's virtually a guarantee of getting to the FF.

Yeah? How'd that work out for Baylor against Texas A&M?

 

[ASweet3781]

SUCONN appears headed to Louidville due to the proximity rule. If you beat Louisville three times you get rewarded by a chance to beat them again in the regional final. It's virtually a guarantee of getting to the FF.

Rather silly statement on your part but not surprising coming from you.

Beating a good team for a 4th time is incredibly difficult. Both Baylor and UConn found that out in 2011. And those were on a neutral court.

 

[easttexastrash]

Oh yeah and Baylor is a lock to win every game huh?

Didn't they lose to Kansas?

If Louisville loses by 10 to UConn it's more impressive than anyone Baylor has defeated this year.

Baylor has a better chance of winning out in the Big 12 than Louisville has of beating UCONN. Would you disagree?

IF Louisville plays UCONN as close as Baylor did, I'm ready to debate. I suspect that the next loss for L-ville will be 25 plus.

 

[UConnCat]

Rather silly statement on your part but not surprising coming from you.

Beating a good team for a 4th time is incredibly difficult. Both Baylor and UConn found that out in 2011. And those were on a neutral court.

Notre Dame found it out last year, although the emergence of Stewart for UConn completely changed the matchup. UConn was a different team than the one ND beat in the previous 3 games.

 

[ASweet3781]

Notre Dame found it out last year, although the emergence of Stewart for UConn completely changed the matchup. UConn was a different team than the one ND beat in the previous 3 games.

Yup, another good example of it. 4 out of 4 against a good team is difficult. UConn got so fed up the way they lost those ND games last year they became a better and stronger team and won the one that mattered.

 

[easttexastrash]

Yeah? How'd that work out for Baylor against Texas A&M?

Baylor is not UCONN and doesn't have the greatest coach in the history of the game. It would be a lock for UCONN.

 

[easttexastrash]

So, 4th game = advantage Loyisville? Which would mean that after playing UCONN three times that Louisville would become the better team?

 

[ASweet3781]

Baylor has a better chance of winning out in the Big 12 that Louisville has of beating UCONN. Would you disagree?

IF Louisville plays UCONN as close as Baylor did, I'm ready to debate. I suspect that the next loss for L-ville will be 25 plus.

And if Baylor doesn't win out? And finish with around 4-5 losses? The same amount or more as Louisville? 3 of 4 of Louisville's losses will be to the #1 ranked team. Better losses than losing to Kansas. And depending how competitive they are perhaps more impressive than beating Oklahoma State.

 

[ASweet3781]

So, 4th game = advantage Loyisville? Which would mean that after playing UCONN three times that Louisville would become the better team?

You don't need to be a better team to win a one game survive and advance scenario.

You would think Baylor fans would know that.

 

[ndmb]

Baylor is not UCONN and doesn't have the greatest coach in the history of the game. It would be a lock for UCONN.

How'd it work out for UConn against Notre Dame in the same year?

 

[ndmb]

So, 4th game = advantage Loyisville? Which would mean that after playing UCONN three times that Louisville would become the better team?

It's not like that at all. Obviously, UConn would be the favorite, but there are two reasons that I don't want us to be in the Louisville region. First, we would be on the home court of the #2 seed, which shouldn't happen to the #1 overall seed.

Second, the more teams play each other, the more they become familiar with each other's strengths and weaknesses. This leads to an ugly, unpredictable game, and favors the underdog. Also, it's not a fun as a fan as it would be if we got to play someone new.

 

[pap49cba]

ETT is just up to his same 'o, same 'o. Ignore history and just stir the pot and see what shakes out. Some of you guys have taken the bait.

 

[Phil]

Can I jump in with a quick math lesson? Unfortunately, it involves the difference between conditional and unconditional probabilities, so isn't exactly a trivial subject, although I think I can illustrate the point.

It is often said that it is difficult to beat a team four times in one season.

True statement.

Because people know this is true, if they see a team has beaten another team three times, they trot out the bromide suggesting that a fourth win will be very tough.

Not so true, it does not follow from the first statement.

One challenge is that the chance of winning is not 50%, and the chance of winning a game given that one team has won, is not the same as the chance before the first game was played. That part gets complicated, as it involves Bayesian statistics, and is far from trivial.

However, pretend for a second that the probability of winning any game is 50%.

What are the chances of a given team beating another four times?

I hope everyone can do that simple math and conclude the chances are one in 16, or about 6%.

This is (roughly) why people say it is hard to win four in a row. (The real probability is higher, but let's skip that for now.)

Here's the key question:

What are the chances of winning a fourth game, given that one team has won the first three?

The answer is 50%.

The error people make is thinking that if the chance is only 6% that four in a row can happen, that the odds must be low that a string of three will be followed by a fourth win.

Get out a coin, do some flips and you can verify the results.

Flip four in a row, see how often you get four heads.

It will happen about 6% of the time.

Now flip until you get three heads in a row (or keep track of your groups of four flips and find ones with three heads in a row). Flip a fourth time and half the time it will be heads, half tails.

As I said, the fact that real probabilities differ from 50% complicate the situation, but it goes against the trite wisdom. A team that beats another three times in a row is more likely to be the stronger team, and the odds (Baylor/TAMU and ND/CT notwithstanding) are better than 50% that the streak will continue.

There are legitimate reasons for being unhappy with a fourth Louisville/CT matchup, but the possibility that this decreases UConn's chance of winning is not one of them.

 

[choochoo]

ETT this is a UConn fan board, go find some of your like minded friends and tell each other how great Baylor and Mulkey and her flounder of a daughter are and quit wasting your time on a UConn board! You have been in Waco and drinking the water too long.

 

[easttexastrash]

ETT this is a UConn fan board, go find some of your like minded friends and tell each other how great Baylor and Mulkey and her flounder of a daughter are and quit wasting your time on a UConn board! You have been in Waco and drinking the water too long.

She can flop, can't she!

 

[easttexastrash]

I am just saying that if Baylor were to end up a 1 seed that it would make more sense to send them to Lincoln as it would put them geographically closer to home while doing the same for UCONN. Some fans, especially students, do still travel by ground and it would put those fans within driving distance. Remember those folks, the student body?