Creme with new #1 seeds

[pap49cba]

Charlie Creme @CharlieCreme
No. 1 seeds in the new bracket UConn, ND, Stanford, Duke. Full bracket later and your questions tonight during #BigMonday

 

[Wbbfan1]

Duke is only temporary until they lose to ND on 2/23/14. Thinking the 4th #1 seed might come down to Baylor or South Carolina if both go undefeated.

 

[Phil]

I'd be curious to know what result would have persuaded Charlie to keep Louisville as a #1. Surely they weren't expected to beat UConn? If you are the 4th #1 seed and playing the first #1 seed, you are expected to lose.

Was the margin too high?

Sagarin predicted a 17 point victory and it was , drumroll... a 17 point victory.
Arguably, this mean that whatever you thought of Louisville before the game, you should think exactly the same thing after the game (arguably, because there are things other than point spread. But you might consider that Louisville did this without Smith, so arguably, they exceeded expectations)

Creme replaces Louisville with Duke.

Duke is a fine team, and may deserve a #1 seed, but Creme felt they were not quite there last week, and now does.

What happened between last week and this week?

1. Louisville matched or slightly exceeded expectations with a loss to UConn by 17 which was predicted to be 17 by Sagarin
2. Duke ever so slightly underperformed, by beating Clemson by 27, when Sagarin predicted 28 (as an aside, nice work Sagarin)

What else happened to move Duke ahead of Louisville?

 

[UcMiami]

Duke is only temporary until they lose to ND on 2/23/14. Thinking the 4th #1 seed might come down to Baylor or South Carolina if both go undefeated.

Definitely a possibility, but I suspect neither will and whoever they lose to will not be in the top ten so not a good late season loss.

 

[baggerbob]

Duke with the loss of one of their best players has been less then impressive, and until they can show they can make up for the loss, shouldn't be in consideration for a 1 seed. When you lose a player for the season, any wins before that shouldn't factor into ranking's, unless like UConn, you prove you can continue to excel.

 

[Vowelguy]

Charlie Creme @CharlieCreme
No. 1 seeds in the new bracket UConn, ND, Stanford, Duke. Full bracket later and your questions tonight during #BigMonday

Well that's just silly. Louisville clearly entered yesterday's game as the underdog. They performed largely as expected. If he didn't think they were good enough then he shouldn't have moved them to a #1 seed last week. (I would not have.) But to downgrade them after an expected loss is just dumb, imho.

 

[Vowelguy]

Duke is only temporary until they lose to ND on 2/23/14.

Why? They are expected to lose to ND. If they won't belong there in 2 weeks, why should they be there now?

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke with the loss of one of their best players has been less then impressive, and until they can show they can make up for the loss, shouldn't be in consideration for a 1 seed. When you lose a player for the season, any wins before that shouldn't factor into ranking's, unless like UConn, you prove you can continue to excel.

Luckily there are 3-4 more weeks of regular season play...... so Duke can play their way to a #1 seed..... or play their way to a #4,5 seed .... Should be an exciting finish to the season.

 

[Phil]

Well that's just silly. Louisville clearly entered yesterday's game as the underdog. They performed largely as expected. If he didn't think they were good enough then he shouldn't have moved them to a #1 seed last week. (I would not have.) But to downgrade them after an expected loss is just dumb, imho.

What a great point

 

[pap49cba]

As a journalist Creme needs to stir the pot every now and then to get some buzz and page hits. Whatever happens by year end, I trust his final bracket will bear little resemblance to the NCAA's.

 

[easttexastrash]

I would think that most UCONN fans would no hope to see USC as a 1 seed. I think it is Baylor's to grab.

 

[baggerbob]

Luckily there are 3-4 more weeks of regular season play. so Duke can play their way to a #1 seed..... or play their way to a #4,5 seed .... Should be an exciting finish to the season.

I agree that is why losing one of their star players when they did, gives Duke an opportunity to prove they belong as a top seed, and time to get the team chemistry back in sync.

 

[triaddukefan]

Louisville has temple, houston, memphis, rutgers, cincy, and uconn... then probably rutgers and uconn in the conference tournament. Duke has UNC, Maryland, NC State, ND, Wake Forest, and UNC.... then probably would have to beat NC State or Maryland in the tournament just to face ND in the finals. Baylor has ISU twice, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and WVU before the conference tournament. South Carolina has Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Florida, and Georgia... before the SEC tournament.

South Carolina might be in the best position to get the final #1 seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

What a great point

Wrote my response before seeing yours.

 

[ndmb]

Well that's just silly. Louisville clearly entered yesterday's game as the underdog. They performed largely as expected. If he didn't think they were good enough then he shouldn't have moved them to a #1 seed last week. (I would not have.) But to downgrade them after an expected loss is just dumb, imho.

While I agree with your approach, I think that Louisville as a number 1 seed was too high anyways. My top 8, based on record, would be:

UConn
Notre Dame
Duke
South Carolina
Stanford
Louisville
Baylor
Maryland

 

[Phil]

Wrote my response before seeing yours.

I figured, but nice to see we are on same page.

 

[Vowelguy]

While I agree with your approach, I think that Louisville as a number 1 seed was too high anyways.

As do I. I would not have moved them up to a #1 last week, so no need to lower them this week.

 

[Outside Shot]

Didn't UNC beat South Carolina decisively in Myrtle Beach?

 

[ndmb]

Didn't UNC beat South Carolina decisively in Myrtle Beach?

They did beat South Carolina by 8. But they've also beaten Nebraska and NC State. In my mind, a loss to UNC is not a bad loss (i.e. I think that North Carolina is a legit top 25 team). South Carolina makes up for that loss with decent wins against Vanderbilt and Kentucky and, just as important, no bad losses.

 

[ASweet3781]

Until someone gives me a halfway rationale explanation as to why Duke would be given the privilege of the one neutral site while a clearly better UConn team would have to play Louisville for the 4th time in 7 weeks in front of 22,000 of their fans than Charlie Creme should be treated as exactly what he is, a troll. It seems he can't wait to predict this scenario to play out. I bet if Notre Dame had lost 2 times he'd be predicting us to go to South Bend.

And if there is a halfway rationale technicality to explain it (Louisville is a half hour plane ride closer to CT than Lincoln!) than WCBB is simply not a sport to trust, take seriously, or support anymore with my money.

 

[connboy77]

Louisville has temple, houston, memphis, rutgers, cincy, and uconn... then probably rutgers and uconn in the conference tournament. Duke has UNC, Maryland, NC State, ND, Wake Forest, and UNC.... then probably would have to beat NC State or Maryland in the tournament just to face ND in the finals. Baylor has ISU twice, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and WVU before the conference tournament. South Carolina has Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Florida, and Georgia... before the SEC tournament.

South Carolina might be in the best position to get the final #1 seed.

Why do you continue to disrespect North Carolina by calling them UNC? I hate it when Tennessee Fans disrespect UCONN by calling them UCONN-Cheat!

 

[Vowelguy]

Until someone gives me a halfway rationale explanation as to why Duke would be given the privilege of the one neutral site while a clearly better UConn team would have to play Louisville for the 4th time in 7 weeks in front of 22,000 of their fans than Charlie Creme should be treated as exactly what he is, a troll. It seems he can't wait to predict this scenario to play out. I bet if Notre Dame had lost 2 times he'd be predicting us to go to South Bend.

And if there is a halfway rationale technicality to explain it (Louisville is a half hour plane ride closer to CT than Lincoln!) than WCBB is simply not a sport to trust, take seriously, or support anymore with my money.

The rule is that within each seed line, the teams are placed in the closest available bracket. He is not a troll, nor did he make the rule; he is merely following the letter of the rule.

My hope is that the committee will believe that the spirit of the rule is not violated by not granting a team its "closest" regional at 800 miles. But we shall see. It is an open question until selection monday.

 

[pinotbear]

Why do you continue to disrespect North Carolina by calling them UNC? I hate it when Tennessee Fans disrespect UCONN by calling them UCONN-Cheat!

Don't know if you've stayed up on the news, connboy, but there's been a series of articles and investigations into academic fraud at UNC, involving mostly athletes, and, mostly football players and basketball players. It seems that there have been, literally, hundreds of bogus courses, altered grades, very low standards, and such, pretty much all benefiting the academic eligibility of UNC athletes. And, initially, there appears to have been a concerted effort to ignore it, sweep it under the rug, blame the messenger, and blame it on previous administrations and administrators.

I agree, it's not an attractive label, but, in this case, the "disrespect" appears to be extremely well-earned. Here's a link to the recent discussion on the "Conference Re-alignment" board:http://the-boneyard.com/threads/unc-troubles.50799/unread

 

[Phil]

Sorry, but calling Charlie Creme a troll is way out of line.

He is attempting to project a bracket, based upon his view of how strong the teams are, and following the Principles and Procedures of the Selection committee (with the curious exception that he doesn't pay attention to the semifinal match u)

This is not an easy task. It seems that way to many pundits, but if you actually put a bracket together, you will see it isn't easy.

Creme also has an additional disadvantage. He has to follow rules that haven't yet been written. The rules have to be rewritten, and it looks to me like he is guessing they will make minor changes to the rules. They have to accommodate allowing regional hosts to play in their regions; he may be guessing that the rules committee makes that change and no other.

If they do, then the rules indicate that geography is important. There's a little wiggle room, but not much. If you send UConn to the closest available region, they go to Louisville.

That doesn't mean Creme thinks UConn belongs in Louisville, or that the best bracket make-up would put UConn in Louisville, it means he thinks the committee may follow the rules and send UConn to Louisville.

 

[Phil]

If anyone cares about this, and wants to do more than whine, I suggest you do what I did—I wrote to the rules chair and suggested alternative wording for their Principles and Procedures to give them a little more leeway in how they assign teams to regions.

If they have some leeway and still think the best bracket has UConn on Louisville, so be it, but it would be a shame if they got to their selection meeting, did not want to send UConn to Louisville, but found their hands tied.

[edit]
After saying that, it is possible it is too late. I have not yet seen the new Principles and Procedures, but I see the 2013 version was written in October 2102, so it is possible they have already rewritten the rules, and just haven't released them.

If so, I wonder if Charlie Creme has a copy?