Unless S.Carolina’s guards step up, they are most definitely vulnerable. And I just don’t see that against a harassing defense. Still, substantial favorites but surely vulnerable.
A defense that was ranked
184th in Scoring Defense,
257th in FG % Defense, and
300th in 3-pt. FG % Defense coming into tonight's game? After playing the 32nd ranked NET, the 36th ranked RPI, and 55th ranked SOS schedule this season?
UNC was supposed to have a decent defense. They held South Carolina to a full 2 pts below their season average. With SC shooting 33%.
Missouri was out-rebounded by 10 rebounds by South Carolina, 47 to 37. They had 6-4 Ladazhia Williams and 6-1 Hayley Frank as starters, and rotated 6-1 Kiya Dorroh and 6-1 Sara-Rose Smith into the game. Creighton starts 6-1 Emma Ronsiek and 6-0 Carly Bachelor, with 6-1 Morgan Maly and 6-0 Mallory Brake as their tallest reserves. Missouri was taller than Creighton will be, even without Aijha Blackwell playing.
South Carolina took 18 more shot attempts than Missouri did, and made 4 more completions. Missouri had a 43.1% completion rate to the Gamecocks' 38.2 %. Most of the Gamecock's misses were from the 3-pt. line, where they were 6-21. Missouri was 7-15 from the arc. But that 1 extra point for the Tigers against 8 extra points for the Gamecocks in additional FG completions did not win them the game. It was the 8 extra free throw points they got by going 13-16 at the charity stripe, compared to South Carolina going 5-9. South Carolina was called for 15 fouls compared to Missouri being called for just 11 fouls. 8 pts minus 7 pts leaves 1 point in favor of Missouri, and they won 70-69.
Now, will South Carolina be called for the majority of fouls in tonight's game? Will the decided size mismatch in the paint towards the Gamecock's appear too bully-ball for the officiating? Will Creighton's players suddenly find themselves being whipped and lashed about on the court as if by a EF5 tornado? The Gamecocks bigs will have to be wary of this phenomenon. They can't get into early foul trouble, and nullify that clear advantage.
But regardless of how poor South Carolina's offense is, it appears that the Bluejays' own defensive liabilities may assist the Gamecocks in this area. And the Gamecocks come into the game #2 in Rebounding per Game and #1 in Rebounding Margin, while Creighton is ranked
190th and
85th respectively. The Bluejays will NEED to have a strong offensive efficiency outing against a very tough defense - perhaps not as harassing as Creighton's - but still a proven defense (3rd in Scoring Defense, 1st in FG % Defense, 18th in 3-Pt. FG % Defense). I think odds are more stacked up against Creighton than they appear to be against South Carolina - their strength goes up against strength, while the Gamecock's weakness goes up against a greater weakness....