Creighton (13-4)
#15 in KenPom
35h in minutes continuity (62.6%)
23rd in Offensive efficiency
- 3rd w/ a 61.4 2P%
- 7th in 3PA/FGA (48.8%); 71th w/ a 36 3P%
- 47th in A/FGM (57.4%)
- 52nd w/ a 75.4 FT%, but just 331st in FTA/FGM
- 96th in turnover prevention
- 181st in offensive tempo
- 192nd in offensive rebounding rate
15th in Defensive efficiency
- 1st in FTA/FGM prevention
- 4th in 3PA/FGA prevention (27%); 39th in opp. 3P% (30.2%)
- 5th in A/FGM prevention (37.9%)
- 12th in defensive rebounding rate
- 25th in opp. 2P% (44.6%)
- Opponents spend 17.8 seconds/possession (283rd in tempo)
- 362nd in turnovers caused rate
Results from first Big East games
- OTL to Villanova 66-68
- 67-72 L to Marquette
- Four straight wins against Georgetown, Providence, DePaul and St. John’s
- Non-conference losses to Colorado State
- Non-conference wins to Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Alabama
- Non-conference schedule ranked 66th hardest
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PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
Steven Ashworth 6’1 170 senior transfer from Utah State
Trey Alexander 6’4 190 junior
- 209th in usage rate
- Team’s third highest rated defender
Baylor Scheierman 6’7 205 fifth-year returnee
- 237th in usage rate; 395th in national offensive efficiency
- Teams second highest rated defender
Mason Miller 6’9 190 sophomore
- 6th nationally in offensive efficiency
Ryan Kalbrenner 7’1 270 senior
- 71st nationally in offensive efficiency
- Team’s highest rated defender
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FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES - 22.0% minutes (345th in nation)
- Since the start of Big East play, Farabello is the only bench piece who has played 6+ minutes in consecutive conference games.
Francisco Farabello 6’3 180 fifth-year returnee
- 426th nationally in offensive efficiency
UConn’s first half-dozen Big East opponents entered this season facing major roster facelifts while Creighton is one of the few teams in the conference with most of its key roster returning.
The biggest change has been Ryan Nembhard transferring to Gonzaga and Utah State senior Steven Ashworth taking his place in the starting lineup. After a 21.6% usage rate at Utah State, Ashworth’s rate has dipped to 16.9% at Creighton, who, along with Arthur Kaluma replacement Mason Miller, performs most of his scoring from the perimeter while opening up space for Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander to generate most of their offensive from the inside.
Ashworth is still the team’s point guard, but, like UConn, the team shares the ball very well with Scheierman and Alexander actually posting higher assist rates than Ashworth. Simply put, Mason Miller is an elite spacer with size, but an ultra-low usage guy, so much of Creighton’s offense is based on a three-man game between Alexander/Kalkbrenner/Scheierman.
Speaking of their usage rate, the trio all played 38+ minutes in their last game against St. John’s, which features six players playing 22+ minutes, one with six (redshirt freshman forward Isaac Traudt) and two other forwards playing one minute. Like last year, elite spacer Francisco Farabello returns in his role off the bench and is playing even more this year. Considering his low usage rate, he and Ashworth almost never share the floor together, but when they do, Creighton basically turns their offensive strategy into a two-man game with Kalkbrenner and Alexander along with three spacers: Farabello, Ashworth and Miler.
A downside of Kaluma and Nembhard transferring out: more of their scoring emphasis is on Kalkbrenner/Scheierman/Alexander – they are responsible for 62.8% of the team’s scoring while last year, the trio scored 55.4% of the team’s total.
The good news: they’re even better this year. Kalkbrenner is still an elite two-way center, but he’s even more willing to let it rip from three (17% of FGAs are from three, compared to 6% last year). Alexander is still an excellent offensive creator, but he’s increased his efficiency inside the arc and is now truly an all-around guard thanks to his increased assist rate (23.8% compared to 15.1% last year. Scheierman is still one of the most underheralded excellent wings in the nation – he’s a tough, savvy two-way star who has managed to so far increase his usage rate and his efficiency ratings. He’s even been able to foul even less despite his aggressive style of play.
In terms of matchup, obviously the biggest concern is Kalkbrenner. He rarely sits and this is the smallest squad we’ve played against Creighton with Kalkbrenner in the lineup. There are some parallels between Kalkbrenner and Soriano and UConn was able to hold Soriano to just 14 points back in December. However, Soriano is not surrounded with teammates as talented as Alexander and Scheierman and also, he doesn’t play in a system that spaces as well as Creighton. I have trouble picturing UConn defending him effectively without fouling a lot. Singare’s got five fouls to give, right?
In terms of stylistic matchups, there are plenty of intriguing mixes to explore: UConn moves the ball beautifully, but Creighton is elite at defending assist opportunities. Creighton is also the best team in the nation at preventing free throw opportunities, so it’ll be tough for Newton and Castle to break down the defense and get to the bucket. Creighton shoots a ton of threes, and UConn does a nice job preventing perimeter opportunities. UConn is an elite offensive rebounding team; Creighton is an elite defensive rebounding team. Creighton is also excellent at defending the perimeter, but Miller is one of their weakest defenders, so it’ll be interesting to see how Karaban plays against him when he’s at the power forward spot.
I’m not going to lie, with Clingan still out, this is easily the toughest matchup UConn has faced since the Kansas game. However, if Clingan can play…verrrrrry different story.
