Creighton Scouting Report - Rematch | The Boneyard

Creighton Scouting Report - Rematch

Hey Adrien!

Hey Adrien!

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UPDATED REPORT

Creighton: 16-8
Kenpom Rating: 9th (up from #18 last matchup)
Seven-game winning streak​

OFFENSE: 27th in efficiency nationally (up from 28th last time we played)

Big-East Offensive Rankings (4th in efficiency)
  • 2nd in
    • 36.5 3p%
    • 56.6 2p%
    • 77.2 ft%
  • 3rd in
    • Preventing steals and blocks
    • A/FGM ratio: 57.4%
  • 4th in 3PA/FGA (39.7%)
  • 7th in offensive rebounding rate (27%)
  • 8th in
    • Average possession length (17.9 seconds/possession)
    • FTA/FGA (27.9%)
  • 9th in preventing non-steal/block turnovers

DEFENSE: 13th in efficiency national (up from 23rd in efficiency last time we played them)

Big-East Defensive Rankings (1st in efficiency)

  • 1st in
    • 43.8 2p%
    • 3PA/FGA ratio (28.6%)
    • Defensive rebounding rate
    • FTA/FGA (20.8%)
  • 2nd in
    • Block %
    • A/FGM (44.6%)
  • 4th in
    • average possession length of opponent (17.0 seconds/possession)
    • 32.8 3P%
  • 9th in opponent ft% (74.1%)
  • 10th in turnover rate (14.0%)

Injury report: Grad transfer shooting guard Francisco Farabello questionable (illness)

After a bad start to the season, Creighton is now one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning their last seven and ten of their last twelve. The talent is undeniable, but it took time for the synergy to come together.

Known mostly for his excellent offensive teams, analytically, this is Greg McDermott’s strongest defensive team in his thirteen year tenure in Omaha with Trey Alexander and Arthur Kaluma the team’s most versatile defenders.

UConn matched up wonderfully when they hosted Creighton back in January (shout out to @CTBasketball !) with Creighton finishing the game with a 40 2P% and 12.5 3p%. UConn didn’t shoot much better (36.1 2p% and 33.3 3p%) but they dominated the turnover ratio (5 to 13).

That game, the UConn bench scored just four points so a more consistent performance from the bench will be key too.

Creighton’s Top Performers over the last 30 days:

QanQaZu-rlwzW4BEI4-yU7WhaUlK5unZSFiiHd0j0xpvrQ0n3P8M6dDpxM9gqwFUTLlGGwRYuKMr7eoW-q1gjDUCisclrkzG894L3pDXWMcW2qYnEsLEh5nG-Y4xYALoWHz1QyxGXFnXKOyrRdJmqD0


4-eUzXpszQDzAgbdN8En-AN_SOFuLFeRslHoVaYGFhzTLItImi8ttL__u-Axwag1eoQn0qGIkS6FR_BdyZXD2emhhDMWhbN-I-hb4Zqdik0gfNT1J3SQglyM6MPV_FPTCFPh-rcvP_nDQlnfED_JRXg
 
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I expect more turnovers from us
Better 3pt shooting from them
And more resistance down low from a healthy Kalk

But I actually think we match up with them pretty well defensively. If Newton keeps it rolling and we get anything from Alleyne/Joey. We win.

Let's go!
 
REB1094 said:
We know exactly how they’re going to play on offense and defense. They’re going to leave shooters open to double Sanogo, and they’re going to bring Sanogo to the perimeter to play defense as much as possible

Are we going to stick strictly to the playbook we’ve used for the last 2 months, or are we going to adjust based on the matchup and game flow? That will decide whether we win or lose.

Thanks as always for the great post!
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The reason this game is so fascinating is that they can't really do this anymore. I don't think I've seen more than a couple of possessions where Sanogo tried to establish traditional post position for an entry pass over the last three games. He's getting the ball in motion, on cuts, or attacking off the bounce. That makes doubles very difficult. He's no longer a stationary target. The result of having him face the basket includes that he can see, and make passes.

I think our defense will be challenged, as always against Creighton. But Creighton is seeing a UConn offense they've never seen before.
 
They foul very little and we foul a lot. I'm not expecting a friendly whistle on Saturday.

Of all the things to be known for as a program, being the team that rarely fouls is among the most obscure and least marketable. But for No. 23 Creighton (16-8, 10-3 Big East), it's a trait that is central to explaining the team's rally from a 6-6 start to the season to Big East title contention.

UConn, Iowa State, Texas A&M and Auburn each commit 19 or more fouls per game and are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. So it's not a one-size-fits-all approach.

www.cbssports.com

Creighton is in Big East race by playing aggressive defense while committing the fewest fouls in the nation

Beating the Bluejays by getting to the free-throw line hasn't been an easy task for their opponents this season
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
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Peacefrog said:
Other than Kalkbrenner, those guys are money from the charity stripe. We're going to need to do a much better job of defending without fouling than has been our norm. Especially on the road where the whistle is unlikely to be friendly.
Expand ...
even Kalkbrenner hits FTs at a 70% rate. Sending him to the line is a good idea either.
 
UCFan1513 said:
They’re gonna double team Sanogo this time because he proved that he’s Kalk’s daddy. But now he passes out of the double much better. Gonna be a fun game
Expand ...
I think they’ll be surprised how little we’re posting up now.
 
I’d like to see us start Alex on Kalk and Sanogo on Kaluma. Let Sanogo sag and cut off drives, dare Kaluma and Nembhard to beat us from 3.
 
Scheierman was held down in our win at Gampel. He put Seton Hall in the grave and piled the dirt on this weekend. He is the player to try and hold down. No more losing Kalk due to the high hedge like last year. Limit turnovers and run good offense. I want to see us put up an all game fight and see where the chips fall. We could play each other again in MSG. That is the one I want to win.
 
For kenpom subscribers: would this be our best win of the season if we can pull it off? Also, would we be favored today over Alabama on a neutral floor?
 
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HuskyHawk said:
The reason this game is so fascinating is that they can't really do this anymore. I don't think I've seen more than a couple of possessions where Sanogo tried to establish traditional post position for an entry pass over the last three games. He's getting the ball in motion, on cuts, or attacking off the bounce. That makes doubles very difficult. He's no longer a stationary target. The result of having him face the basket includes that he can see, and make passes.

I think our defense will be challenged, as always against Creighton. But Creighton is seeing a UConn offense they've never seen before.
Expand ...
@husky429 has pointed this out as well. We are running our offense totally differently. If you double Sanago on the catch at the foul line, it should be a lay up or dunk. So it will be interesting how Creighton plays him. Do they bring Kale out?
 
We will allow anyone to shoot from the foul line area. Anyone can shoot midrange stuff, it’s exactly what we want people to do.

If you’re referring to getting the catch there and then backing Kalk down, I’ll bet dollars to donuts they start singly and adjust if Ryan can’t handle it.

The last game isn’t the entire narrative here. If things like that were the case from game to game we would just pick and roll Sanogo every time and expect a dunk, which obviously isn’t something that’s going to work like that.

Just because there’s success there a few weeks back doesn’t mean it’s as big a disaster for us on Saturday as it might have been then.
 
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Get a Job said:
For kenpom subscribers: would this be our best win of the season if we can pull it off? Also, would we be favored today over Alabama on a neutral floor?
Expand ...
Not sure KenPom has any tool to check this. In Torvik WAB (wins above bubble), N-Alabama counted as 0.81 wins and @Creighton would be 0.79. Basically equivalent, extremely difficult. The best win of the season for anyone (@Houston) was worth 0.91. Home against Creighton was 0.54 for context.
 
Creighton will make a good number of the threes they missed last time. It's up to us to respond and find a way to win. Road win against Creighton would be HUGE
 
BFieldHusky said:
@husky429 has pointed this out as well. We are running our offense totally differently. If you double Sanago on the catch at the foul line, it should be a lay up or dunk. So it will be interesting how Creighton plays him. Do they bring Kale out?
Expand ...
Kalk is plenty mobile. That’s not the issue. But they can’t double Sanogo and others guys will be open and get the ball. It’s going to be an interesting game. Hurley has neutralized what McDermott does to UConn. So it’s his move.
 
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You could argue that Creighton is playing like the best team in the country.

They have a one of the best home court advantages in the country.

If they get a home whistle and we foul a lot we are in trouble.

I hope everyone acknowledges how difficult this game is going to be.
 
Per @Hey Adrien! summary above.. Creighton plays their starting lineup 81% of the time.. Seems like we need to force the issue in the first 10 minutes.. Try to pick up some fouls and get to their bench players---if possible(like the Marquette game).. Our offensive flexibility with Sanogo has changed dramatically since our first game.. AS/DC getting Kalk in foul trouble with constant pressure on the boards would be huge.

Last game Andre did an excellent job of making Scheierman work hard for his points. Need him to play smart D..

McD will be working the refs early to try to control the whistle in their favor.. Have to play tough/connected team D..Need to turn them over and control the boards.. Take crowd out of game if possible.
 
New feature is available on EvanMiya, haven't played around with it yet but he uses a bunch of examples and screenshots in the thread of UConn stats

 
Alleyne and Clingan will have to play well to win this game. UCONN needs bench help in this game. The starting lineups of both teams are comparable.
 
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navery12 said:
New feature is available on EvanMiya, haven't played around with it yet but he uses a bunch of examples and screenshots in the thread of UConn stats

Expand ...

We lose mainly on FT margin and Assist margin, so good defense and team offense will win it for us.
 
Scrutiner said:
We lose mainly on FT margin and Assist margin, so good defense and team offense will win it for us.
Expand ...
I do think it is somewhat true for us, but the FT margin thing is a dumb stat in this context overall. It's similar to the "win more games when you rush more than the other team" in football correlation without causation. Winning teams take FTs and run the clock out at the end of the game.

Now do we win more when we foul less and draw more fouls? Yeah definitely. It's one of the Four Factors for a reason. But the effect is likely enhanced here beyond the actual effect.
 
Alexander has had some big games as of late and he makes me more nervous. Need to keep him in line as well so Hawk and another nice game from Alleyne will help there.
 
Can't tell you how much I appreciate and look forward to these reports. I bleed National Flag blue and think I am one of the coaches (my wife once asked me what # I am) so I formulate my own game plan.
Today, run, run, run with some pressure. Try to speed the game up. Not a good game for the double bigs. Andre needs to stay out of foul trouble. Use Adama to get Kalk away from the basket and penetrate with the dribble. Tristen should be able to go to the hoop vs Nembhard.
 
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