Contenders & Pretenders

[oldude]

With the end of the OOC schedule, except for a handful of games in Jan-Feb, and the start of conference schedules at hand, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the WBB landscape this season with a view towards identifying those teams that had clearly separated themselves as Contenders to make the FF in Columbus and those teams that appear to lack what it takes as Pretenders. Of course, there’s still a lot of basketball to play. Teams can make a late season push. Upsets and, unfortunately, injuries happen. But as of right now, here’s my take on the Contenders & Pretenders:

Contenders

UConn – Well duh!

ND – After suffering several key losses due to graduation, transfer and injury, MM has cobbled together a very good Irish team that took down the defending champions and gave UConn all they wanted for 3+ qtrs.

SC – Despite losing 3 players to the WNBA and suffering several injuries to key players, the Gamecocks still have National team coach Dawn Staley, NPOY candidate A’ja Wilson and a solid supporting cast.

MS St – Spoiler Alert! The Bulldogs are a better team than the one that took down the Huskies in the national semifinal. Tiera McCowan has become a dominant force in the post. Vivians and William are outstanding players who can score and are providing senior leadership. MS St could end SC’s string of SEC championships and look very strong in their bid to reach consecutive FF’s.

Too Early to Tell

Baylor – Kalani Brown is playing like an AA, and Cox is good when she’s healthy, but the Bears lost 4 of the 5 players that started vs UConn last year to graduation and transfer, and they lack depth. Baylor may still have enough to win another Big12 title but the rest of the roster will have to step up and play more consistently in order for Baylor to make it to the FF.

Louisville – Lou is undefeated with some very nice wins to their credit. Led by Asia Durr, the Cardinals have a potent lineup. But all too often in tight games, the Lou offense breaks down into one on one play. As good as Durr and some of her teammates are, it only takes a determined defensive effort and an off-shooting night to send the Cardinals home. Games vs ND and UConn later in the season will give us a much better indication of whether Louisville is the real deal.

Tennessee – The Vols have practiced addition by subtraction with the departure of team distractions DD & Cooper. While Tenn continues to turn the ball over too much and make inexplicable plays from time to time, the one thing they do this season is play hard all the time. They have a young team with a lot of talent. The test will not be whether they beat SEC powerhouses SC and MS St, but whether they stumble against teams they should beat like Alabama.

Pretenders

Texas – The Longhorns were everyone’s pick to rise to the top echelon of WBB this season, and while there is still time for the team to prove everyone right, the game in Knoxville exposed TX many weaknesses. They don’t take care of the ball. Their offense and defense in the paint is suspect. While the return of Joyner Holmes will help, I really don’t see the Longhorns getting beyond the Elite 8.

tOSU – While the Buckeyes have tons of talent and likely the all-time leading scorer in WBB, they are just not a well-coached team. They breakdown on defense and give up easy shots. On offense, the Buckeyes frequently degenerate into Kelsey Mitchell going one-on-one and forcing bad shots.

MD – After losing their 3 top players to graduation and transfer, I actually believe that Brenda is doing a nice job with the Turtles this season and could well win another title in the BIG. But MD doesn’t have the horses to get to Columbus this year for the FF.

The PAC12 – After being declared the top conference in the country last season, there was lots of speculation that several teams from the PAC12 would step up this season to contend for a national title. While there are a lot of good teams in the PAC12, none of them have what it takes to make a run for a national championship IMO. UCLA is an extremely athletic team, but they don’t shoot the ball as well as they did last year and they are prone to TO’s. Oregon can score with just about anyone, but they were exposed defensively last year by UConn and this year by MS St. Perennial contender Stanford lost 3 starters to graduation, has suffered several key injuries and may struggle to even earn an invite to the Big Dance. The best of the rest includes: OSU and their outstanding coach Scott Rueck, Cal and maybe USC, none of which have the horses to make a deep run in the tournament.

There’s my take on Contenders & Pretenders this season in WBB. I look forward to the BY’s feedback.

 

[BostonCanuck]

Great post! I would have been tempted to give Stanford it's very own entry on the list of pretenders. But then I remembered that they're not even a top 25 team anymore in either of this week's polls, so clearly you got it right.

Mississippi State is indeed a better team than the one that beat the Huskies last year. Then again, the Huskies are better, too.

It's looking more and more like there might be some kind of Final Four rematch between them, and one can only hope that it happens. It would be one of the most hyped and high profile sporting events of the year, and absolutely fantastic for the game. One thing's for sure - MSU better make sure it happens this season. They lose Vivians, William and Schaefer to graduation, and will be in a world of hurt next year.

 

[msf22b]

Great post! I would have been tempted to give Stanford it's very own entry on the list of pretenders. But then I remembered that they're not even a top 25 team anymore in either of this week's polls, so clearly you got it right.

Mississippi State is indeed a better team than the one that beat the Huskies last year. Then again, the Huskies are better, too.

It's looking more and more like there might be some kind of Final Four rematch between them, and one can only hope that it happens. It would be one of the most hyped and high profile sporting events of the year, and absolutely fantastic for the game. One thing's for sure - MSU better make sure it happens this season. They lose Vivians, William and Schaefer to graduation, and will be in a world of hurt next year.

A potentially unpopular view.

I think that Mississippi St has grown more than we have... to date
People that played well in the final 4 are all playing much better.
Can we make that claim?
Methinks not.

 

[huskeynut]

dude - I definitely agree with the pretenders. Especially Texas. Seems Karen can recruit but I have not seen evidence of an offensive plan to attack an opponent. Besides McCarty and Atkins, their scoring is questionable. Boothe, beyond the press, has shown little to get excited about.

ND - though Muffitt has put together a respectable team and they gave us a battle, they seem to play to the level of their competition. As shown in the game against us, you can get "under their skin" and take them out of the game plan. I think this may be the year ND doesn't win the ACC.

Tennessee - ave watched them a few times on the tube, not impressed. Yes they have young talent, but unorganized in the offensive end. Again another team with 2 decent scorers in Nared and Russell, but not a lot of support from the others. Frosh Hayes and Westbrook may provide the needed support.

 

[oldude]

A potentially unpopular view.

I think that Mississippi St has grown more than we have... to date
People that played well in the final 4 are all playing much better.
Can we make that claim?
Methinks not.

One of the challenges in evaluating the relative strength of two teams who have not played lies in the disparity of each team’s SOS. UConn has beaten 7 ranked teams. ND is next with 4 wins over ranked teams along with a strong losing effort at UConn. SC, MS St & Lou are next with 3 wins each over ranked teams. While MS St looked very good at home against a suspect OR team, It’s difficult to say, at this point in the season that MS St has grown more than UConn.

 

[eebmg]

I would move TX to the "Too early to tell"

They came back and played well against FSU with good guard play so I am going to give TX a mulligan for the TN game. With Joyner Holmes coming back, the
definition of a wait and see team.

 

[oldude]

I would move TX to the "Too early to tell"

They came back and played well against FSU with good guard play so I am going to give TX a mulligan for the TN game. With Joyner Holmes coming back, the
definition of a wait and see team.

TX was a tough call for me. Maybe if I hadn’t seen the debacle in Knoxville I might have been more generous in my evaluation. The Longhorns will have an opportunity to change my opinion on Jan 15.

 

[Carnac]

Excellent post!!! A comprehensive and timely survey of the landscape of the movers and shakers in WCBB.
I agree with BostonCanuck, if MSU is serious about winning a chip, they'd better do it this year. I do think they can get back to the FF. Like last year, they'll have to get by UConn. They were cloaked in "stealth" last year. No one saw them coming until it was too late. They are NOT going to sneak up on anyone THIS year.

Several years ago, they knocked on the door to enter the room where the "elite" teams in division 1 hang out, no one answered. Last year, they knocked again, when no one answered, they kicked it in. They are still in the room this year. They are among the elite teams in division 1, and somebody is going to have to deal with them at some point in the tournament. They aren't going away.

Don't forget to plan on that dark horse this year, because they always show up. It's too early to tell who the front runners are to make it to Columbus, but right now, I'd pencil in UConn, Miss St, and Notre Dame.

I hope you'll give us updates of this nature the rest of the year. Good stuff!!

 

[eebmg]

TX was a tough call for me. Maybe if I hadn’t seen the debacle in Knoxville I might have been more generous in my evaluation. The Longhorns will have an opportunity to change my opinion on Jan 15.

I think disagreement in the team categories comes from how we individually interpret the categories. It is funny to me that you think saying "wait and see" is a high level category. While I am at it, I also do not seem to interpret pretender's the same. Specifically, a pretender to me is a team that could be a challenger but under-performs.

Therefore, I would take MD out of the list since I never considered them a contender after their talent loss. Maybe Christinaki can make a difference?

 

[oldude]

The one top 10 team I completely ignored is WV. The Mountaineers are undefeated, with a nice win at TX A&M and they play at TX on Sunday. I just haven’t seen them play and I understand they’ve had some injuries, so I’ll defer to any BY’ers with better knowledge relative to WV.

 

[BostonCanuck]

A potentially unpopular view.

I think that Mississippi St has grown more than we have... to date
People that played well in the final 4 are all playing much better.
Can we make that claim?
Methinks not.

My take is this. They've both grown about the same, although I give the slight advantage to UConn due to the addition of Z, among other things. This week I went back and watched last season's Sweet Sixteen game between UConn and UCLA. I was struck at how much better we are already this season versus then.

But assuming you're right, remember that UConn really did play beneath itself in that semi-final against MSU, against a team that it under-estimated, and that flawlessly executed a defensive strategy to successfully break UConn's offense. There's no way that any of those things would happen again. So even if MSU has grown as much or more than UConn, the odds are still heavily in our favor that we would win any rematch in Columbus.

Right now the only teams that I think even have a shot at beating UConn are MSU are ND, so I'm certainly not dismissing them out of hand. I agree with Scoop that these three teams are the most likely to make it to the Final Four.

 

[mhshuskies]

One of the challenges in evaluating the relative strength of two teams who have not played lies in the disparity of each team’s SOS. UConn has beaten 7 ranked teams. ND is next with 4 wins over ranked teams along with a strong losing effort at UConn. SC, MS St & Lou are next with 3 wins each over ranked teams. While MS St looked very good at home against a suspect OR team, It’s difficult to say, at this point in the season that MS St has grown more than UConn.

It’s easy for a team to look good against a pretty weak schedule that MS State has had so far. If they are the level of competition for FF, then it’s a cakewalk.

 

[BroadwayVa]

One of the challenges in evaluating the relative strength of two teams who have not played lies in the disparity of each team’s SOS. UConn has beaten 7 ranked teams. ND is next with 4 wins over ranked teams along with a strong losing effort at UConn. SC, MS St & Lou are next with 3 wins each over ranked teams. While MS St looked very good at home against a suspect OR team, It’s difficult to say, at this point in the season that MS St has grown more than UConn.

I agree with most of your Pretenders, MOST. ND, great coaches of great teams in "off years" make believers of those at hand, Muffet has done that. After a first couple of games that I saw of Miss St I anointed them final 4 caliber--premature to be certain--whether they ARE final 4 may take time to tell, but your assessment of their top 3 players is spot ON. I keep thinking: Thank God we have Azura (thank Geno). Right now, as they (Ms St) have played, without Z or a terrific game plan, it could be a long night. \
Texas has the weapons to be a final 4--my eval of their coach is --confused. She is either great or lucky or stupid , you pick the game. At Tenn, I choose to think an aberration, we'll know more tonight when OK plays Texas- if they don't take OKLA by 25, they are pretenders.

 

[oldude]

we'll know more tonight when OK plays Texas- if they don't take OKLA by 25, they are pretenders.

While I know that the Sooners stumbled out of the gate this season, I saw some real talent on the court when they played the Huskies at the Mohegan Sun. OK could be a real sleeper this season. It will be interesting to see how they do tonight at home vs TX.

 

[BroadwayVa]

My take is this. They've both grown about the same, although I give the slight advantage to UConn due to the addition of Z, among other things. This week I went back and watched last week's Sweet Sixteen game between UConn and UCLA. I was struck at how much better we are already this season versus then.

But assuming you're right, remember that UConn really did play beneath itself in that semi-final against MSU, against a team that it under-estimated, and that flawlessly executed a defensive strategy to successfully break UConn's offense. There's no way that any of those things would happen again. So even if MSU has grown as much or more than UConn, the odds are still heavily in our favor that we would win any rematch in Columbus.

Right now the only teams that I think even have a shot at beating UConn this season are MSU are ND, so I'm certainly not discounting them completely. I agree with Scoop that these three teams are the most likely to make it to the Final Four.

I thought the same thing (as highlighted above) until I saw them play a few times this year. If they can work on getting Z out of the game, and more than 2 fouls on Napheesa AND Ms State fire power continue as they are---who knows?? I think there are more than 3 teams that have a shot at taking down Uconn--and much of it depends on Z or any other post to back her up--ND, South Carolina, Miss St, --still early Texas, Baylor may evolve. Uconn in my less than humble opinion is once again at the mercy of the Refs and foul calls.

 

[meyers7]

A potentially unpopular view.

I think that Mississippi St has grown more than we have... to date
People that played well in the final 4 are all playing much better.
Can we make that claim?
Methinks not.

Mmmm, not so sure. Let's take a look at us.
Nurse - at least where she was, but probably a bit better
Williams - yea, down a little from last year so far
KLS - much improved from last year (and she was really good last year)
Collier - a little down, but might be more because of Stevens than Collier herself
Dangerfield - light years ahead of last year
Stevens - considering last year was 0, exponential improvement. (ok mathematically that doesn't make sense, but..)

So overall, I'd say we are better off this year than last. Improved as much as MS St? Probably won't know til we meet them, if we do. But I'd bet we'd still be favored over them if we did.

 

[cbraarj]

Uconn played horrible against Miss. St. in the FF with the Bulldogs out rebounding and out hustling the Huskies! Uconn also got Uconned in the 1st half especially that first quarter! Mississippi State also controlled tempo the whole game. IMO Uconn was way to over confident going into the game after the 60 pt. drubbing they gave them the year before in Sweet 16! If they play this year Uconn by 25 at least!!

 

[BroadwayVa]

While I know that the Sooners stumbled out of the gate this season, I saw some real talent on the court when they played the Huskies at the Mohegan Sun. OK could be a real sleeper this season. It will be interesting to see how they do tonight at home vs TX.

I'm a Sooner fan, Sherri fan. If Sherri can pull the talent together than she has--they can make some noise in March, possible a spoiler type team. I think the Talent and size if Texas, to night , should really harm Sherri's hopes of a win. Still I'll watch, hoping Sherri puts it all together. Thanks Oldude I'm pleased with your assessment of the Sooner-- Boomer Sooner!!

 

[stwainfan]

Can Tennessee make the FF? I think it depends on if there are any injuries, the seed the team gets, and what teams are in the regional bracket.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Mmmm, not so sure. Let's take a look at us.
Nurse - at least where she was, but probably a bit better
Williams - yea, down a little from last year so far
KLS - much improved from last year (and she was really good last year)
Collier - a little down, but might be more because of Stevens than Collier herself
Dangerfield - light years ahead of last year
Stevens - considering last year was 0, exponential improvement. (ok mathematically that doesn't make sense, but..)

So overall, I'd say we are better off this year than last. Improved as much as MS St? Probably won't know til we meet them, if we do. But I'd bet we'd still be favored over them if we did.

At this moment in time--Uconn is not where they were last April. The Chemistry is still working towards completion. Geno after Canada said : At times defense is good and at times not so good, and repeated the same phrases for Offense.
Stevens adds the missing key from last year. If she stays healthy and out of foul trouble--Uconn is harder to beat.
Collier and Gabby (negating the head ache's ) are working with positional issues, when Z is in the game. That will change for the better--Azura and Collier are nearly an unbeatable combination.
You review of Danger and KLS are right on target Mand I agree with your thoughts on Kia.
My only fear is Z is the factor Uconn needed and got, but she is only one person. If Touly were healthy and effective--I'd join the Uconn is unbeatable crowd.

 

[donalddoowop]

A potentially unpopular view.

I think that Mississippi St has grown more than we have... to date
People that played well in the final 4 are all playing much better.
Can we make that claim?
Methinks not.

Collier is playing better than she did in the FF, KLS is playing better, and so is Nurse. UCONN now has Z which makes a big difference. Dangerfield is a big factor this season. Gabby is the only one not playing as well as she did in the FF. I expect that to change.

 

[BostonCanuck]

My take is this. They've both grown about the same, although I give the slight advantage to UConn due to the addition of Z, among other things. This week I went back and watched last season's Sweet Sixteen game between UConn and UCLA. I was struck at how much better we are already this season versus then.

But assuming you're right, remember that UConn really did play beneath itself in that semi-final against MSU, against a team that it under-estimated, and that flawlessly executed a defensive strategy to successfully break UConn's offense. There's no way that any of those things would happen again. So even if MSU has grown as much or more than UConn, the odds are still heavily in our favor that we would win any rematch in Columbus.

Right now the only teams that I think even have a shot at beating UConn are MSU are ND, so I'm certainly not dismissing them out of hand. I agree with Scoop that these three teams are the most likely to make it to the Final Four.

I thought the same thing (as highlighted above) until I saw them play a few times this year. If they can work on getting Z out of the game, and more than 2 fouls on Napheesa AND Ms State fire power continue as they are---who knows?? I think there are more than 3 teams that have a shot at taking down Uconn--and much of it depends on Z or any other post to back her up--ND, South Carolina, Miss St, --still early Texas, Baylor may evolve. Uconn in my less than humble opinion is once again at the mercy of the Refs and foul calls.

To your point, it is possible that certain individuals could have an off night... which is why it's good that we're so much deeper this year.

But in terms of us getting beaten at a tactical level, I frankly think the chance of that happening again is approaching zero. For example, in the SNY Huskies All Access show, there's an interesting clip of CD lamenting that the game against MSU was her scout, and that she felt responsible.

But wouldn't a rematch be compelling? Appointment television!

 

[BroadwayVa]

Can Tennessee make the FF? I think it depends on if there are any injuries, the seed the team gets, and what teams are in the regional bracket.

Is it possible for the Vols to make the final four---sure. Isn't this years Tn Team the best Holly has produced?

 

[Carnac]

Uconn played horrible against Miss. St. in the FF with the Bulldogs out rebounding and out hustling the Huskies! Uconn also got Uconned in the 1st half especially that first quarter! Mississippi State also controlled tempo the whole game. IMO Uconn was way to over confident going into the game after the 60 pt. drubbing they gave them the year before in Sweet 16! If they play this year Uconn by 25 at least!!

Where do I sign up? I was thinking the exact same thing. The consensus here in the yard is that UConn wins #12 THIS year. It has been since the final horn of last year's championship game. Payback is a dog. How nice would it be for UConn to return the favor to Miss St. for last year's defeat with a resounding win on their way to hoisting the championship trophy for the 12th time? That's a box I'd sure like to see the huskies check off.

 

[BroadwayVa]

To your point, it is possible that certain individuals could have an off night... which is why it's good that we're so much deeper this year.

But in terms of us getting beaten at a tactical level, I frankly think the chance of that happening again is approaching zero. For example, in the SNY Huskies All Access show, there's an interesting clip of CD lamenting that the game against MSU was her scout, and that she felt responsible.

But wouldn't a rematch be compelling? Appointment television!

That is not a Match I would like to see repeated. That is a good team, with fire power, plays more than good defense, and their coach is way underrated. No, that's not a game I want to see. CD is an excellent scout and has produced many victories on her ability to dissect potential opponents. She was being generous and accepting--- to accept the loss as her own. It wasn't her loss. Without a bench, without a big the loss was possible. This year Z--tends to foul on defense, Napheesa and Gabby do too. If foul trouble isn't controlled --who negates Ms State McGowan, and their other big not as effective but good big. Uconn will have to cover the boards and the mid and long range and corner shots from William and Vivians. Mcgowan can score from the top of the key to the basket. I hope they get knocked off before any Uconn rematch.