Its early but to me the teams in the American that realistically have a shot so far for the tournament are out of the following group: UConn, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Temple and Houston. UCF already has a bad loss on their resume, and Cincinnati lost a home game. These teams though play enough good teams OOC that they have a chance. Big East is down big this year so there will be some extra bids out there.
SMU has eliminated itself with 2 bad home losses (I know they don't have Foster but still) and Witchia, while young, has 3 losses before Thanksgiving.