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Transfers are what can kill your APR. When you reach for players who aren't good enough to play here, there is very good chance they transfer and a decent chance they cost you an APR point.
This.
The concern isn't that we take academic risks late in the recruiting year. The concern is we take lousy basketball players who we try to force out the door in a year or two. Unless transfers are really good academically (I think they need a >2.6 GPA), they cost a point.
This is exactly what killed our APR in the 2007-2010 timeframe. It wasn't just poor students, it was poor basketball players/decent-but-not-good-enough students.
And, APR aside, I'd rather not take a kid who we know we're going to recruit over in a few years and who might gum up the works scholarship-wise.