Cinncinnati Postgame Thread

[stamfordhusky]

The nice thing about the Massey Ratings, as opposed to say Sagarin, is that it gives both an expected score and therefore an expected spread.

It was always very simple to calculate an expected margin from the Sagarin ratings. Unfortunately he no longer does them for women’s basketball. But it is still very simple to calculate an expected margin on the men’s side.

 

[Dokey]

While this year’s UConn team has been inconsistent to say the least, they have consistently played solid defense against everyone. Last night the Huskies held the Bearcats to 20 pts less than their season average.

On Monday UConn will face the ultimate test. Oregon leads the nation at 87 ppg. While I fully expect the Huskies to hold the Ducks to something less than that, how much less will determine whether or not UConn can prevail against a really talented Oregon team.

My Colorado team plays them this weekend. We likely will wear them out as they race to one score after another. No thanks needed.

 

[oldude]

My Colorado team plays them this weekend. We likely will wear them out as they race to one score after another. No thanks needed.

Sounds like a Buffalo stampede.....

 

[Dokey]

So Anna is not one of his recruits then?

By that I was referring to transfers, which is why I illustrated with Stevens, though you could add Evelyn, I suppose, first recruited elsewhere. We’ll see if it holds with Evina.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Not sure if you mean the WNIT or NCAA tournament.

Cincinnati has no chance of making the NCAA tournament, unless they win the AAC tournament. Their RPI is 98 and they have seven losses - including ones to St. Louis, Bucknell, and Tulane.

Their chances of even making the NIT right now are not very good – unless they run the table and manage to get the number two seed and an automatic bid.

 

[eebmg]

Thank god CO its a marijuana state

 

[Dokey]

Sounds like a Buffalo stampede.....

I’m afraid we will be the ones stampeded unless they allow Ralphie on the court. Of course Ralphie is being replaced by a new Ralphie. The most recent Ralphie so loved racing around the football field that she was outrunning her handlers. But could she guard Sabrina?

 

[oldude]

Cincinnati has no chance of making the NCAA tournament, unless they win the AAC tournament. Their RPI is 98 and they have seven losses - including ones to St. Louis, Bucknell, and Tulane.

Their chances of even making the NIT right now are not very good – unless they run the table and manage to get the number two seed and an automatic bid.

Unfortunately, aside from UConn, there is no other AAC team that appears likely to make the Big Dance. Tulane is currently 2nd in the conference at 7-1, but they have 9 losses overall. USF & UCF both have 8 losses and, as noted, Cincinnati now has 7 losses.

It’s very likely that every AAC team not named UConn will have 10 or more losses. With multiple teams from Big 5 conferences and auto-bids from mid-majors, I just don’t see a 10 loss AAC team making it into the tournament.

 

[hart2hart]

Anna would have had a lot of assists if the lay ups were not missed. Too many missed!
They need to play like they did against USA to win Monday! Just play as Geno says!

 

[FanFromMaine]

It was always very simple to calculate an expected margin from the Sagarin ratings. Unfortunately he no longer does them for women’s basketball. But it is still very simple to calculate an expected margin on the men’s side.

I miss the Sagarin women’s rating as well. It did provide a spread and review of games versus groups of teams: top 10, 25 and 50 if memory serves. Plebe noted in another topic how that helps him.

After the Sagarin women’s rating moved to USA Today and now seems to have disappeared, I had to look for another system. Someone on the Boneyard mentioned Massey.

As I said earlier I like that it includes a score prediction as well as spread. And by this point in the season, it includes enough data to make many predictions eerily accurate.

 

[NEforceUConn]

Down, yes.

Up? Has yet to be demonstrated.

Up - Did you catch the USA exhibition game?

 

[Steelerone]

I gave them a pass on the first foul on Megan but on the second remembered that this is Cincinnati and they have a history of this type of behavior, both men and women's teams. I blame the refs for not controlling the game.

 

[Boreifs]

I gave them a pass on the first foul on Megan but on the second remembered that this is Cincinnati and they have a history of this type of behavior, both men and women's teams. I blame the refs for not controlling the game.

In contrast to the last game in Gampel, the refs were terrible. The young guy consistently blew his whistle when it wasn’t his call and the woman hardly blew her whistle at all. The older guy made some egregious calls on ONO, sending her to the bench when she was having one of her best games.

 

[JoePgh]

In contrast to the last game in Gampel, the refs were terrible. The young guy consistently blew his whistle when it wasn’t his call and the woman hardly blew her whistle at all. The older guy made some egregious calls on ONO, sending her to the bench when she was having one of her best games.

I was at the game. All three of the foul calls on Olivia (all offensive fouls, which in itself is unusual) were totally correct -- they were stupid plays by Liv. She just banged into defenders, and in at least one case appeared not to know that the defender was even there. She seems to be getting more careful about defensive fouls, but last night she ruined that progress with silly offensive fouls.

 

[Martin]

I don't get it either. This has been a recurring theme that quite a few people have brought up, but my guess is the coaching staff must not be seeing the same thing otherwise it would have been rectified by now.

It is rather obvious. Has any reporter asked Geno about it? I rarely watch his pressers.

 

[Longtime fan]

30 point win with just 3 points from Griffin and 0 points from Makurat. These 2 need to step it up against Oregon, for us to have a shot.

Makurat took shots yesterday that were not open looks. She is not that good of a shooter whereby she makes everything, under any circumstances. She needs that timing where she is open, gets the ball, sets her feet, gets a good look at the basket and releases the shot. I think Cincinnati put a really good defense on her. Eventually, she tired of not contributing offensively, and put up some shots where she was not really in the best position to do so. Hence, she clanked them all. But she still contributed with defense, crisp passing and tough rebounding.

Aubrey is still like a baby gazelle out there. She had amazing success in HS by relying on pure athleticism. At this level, she needs to be more of a basketball player. Sometimes, she needs to fake " going up" for the shot, let the defender over-commit, and then elevate. She missed 5 lay-ups yesterday, because she just elevated. The defender did the same thing and threw off her shot. She needs to spend more time watching really good players use that technique. It can develop pretty naturally. And I will say this: against a top quality team, when the score is always close, her unwillingness ( or inability ) to shoot the ball will become a liability. She will still add some benefit through her defense and rebounding, but teams will leave her wide open with the ball and double down on everyone else. In the remaining AAC games, she has to "make like Olivia" and start shooting the damn ball. She won't be asked or encouraged to do this against Oregon, because she appears to have zero confidence as a shooter. And the Oregon game, if UCONN plays really well, will be close all the way.

The wild card for us remains Christen Williams. We know she can shoot the daylights out of the ball. We have seen her do it. But if she misses her first shot of the night, she goes wiggy and can't make anything. That has to change. She is far too good a player to not have the shooting arrow in her quiver. We will not win the biggest games depending only upon Megan and Dangerfield to score all our points. Ania, who we also are learning can shoot, is still a freshman and subject to volatile play. And Olivia is " experimenting" with her shot and, thankfully, having some success. But I don't expect to see her do that a lot against the Ducks.

There remains a nice timetable for growth and improvement. Don't expect " the world" against Oregon, but don't be surprised either. This is going to be a valid measuring stick.

 

[Watchdog]

I sit courtside, and Makurat was the most vocal player on the team. Her plus/minus stats must be off the charts! That is the best game I have ever seen anyone play who scored zero points. It is really unbelievable how many times she is wide open in the corner and the ball goes the other way. At one point, she shouted at a teammate for not even looking at her.
The best example of this was two back to back plays in the third or fourth quarter. The ball was rotated to the weak side elbow behind the three-point line to Anna, who immediately passed it to Williams for an open corner three, which she missed (of course). The very next play, the player's positions were reversed; Williams received the pass and, instead of rotating to a wide open Anna in the corner, chucked up a three over the hand of a defender that again missed (of course).
The rest of the team has to look for a player who has the best court vision on the team and is, when hot, the best three-point shooter they have. The fact that she only took four or five shots all game, a couple out of frustration, is just totally ridiculous.

Your observation about how many times AM is ignored when she's open is right on the money. Both CD and CW repeatedly ignore AM when she's open and it isn't just this one game. My wife and I have been noting this for the last month or more and it's really obvious when you watch for it. It's almost as if they have some issue with her shooting, or maybe it's because she's a freshman getting a lot of playing time and they believe she hasn't earned it yet, or...............................who knows. Watch the huddles too and it seems she isn't fully welcome to the "core four".
AM is a very complete player and it seems she's gaining more confidence each game she plays. To get 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks in a game where she was 0 for 5 shooting indicates a mature attitude toward doing what she can to help her team. Her court awareness and passing ability is the best we've had in a while and superior already to anyone else on this team. Just watch how many times she gets the ball to a player in exactly the right spot, as the player breaks open, and there was one pass like that cross court last night that epitomizes it. CD is a good guard and shoots very well but AM's passing ability looks better to me.

 

[Boreifs]

I was at the game. All three of the foul calls on Olivia (all offensive fouls, which in itself is unusual) were totally correct -- they were stupid plays by Liv. She just banged into defenders, and in at least one case appeared not to know that the defender was even there. She seems to be getting more careful about defensive fouls, but last night she ruined that progress with silly offensive fouls.

Beg to differ, but on the first foul the defender was still moving. I was 20 feet away.

 

[wbball novice]

I'm watching the Cinci game on an SNY repeat. Apologies, mostly free associating. Sam Rogers rather reminds me of Grayson Allen. Trips Christyn, draws dubious penalty on ONO, kicks a ball possibly trying for another trip, and does a job on Megan's eye in Q3. Sam seems very "accident" prone. I'm probably being a homer, but I thought Rogers deserved a flagrant. But not even a PF. Fouled Megan for real when she returned in Q4. Causing eye injuries should be automatic fouls even if unintentional, like headshots on the quarterback in pro football. Maybe an overall ban on long fingernails during the basketball season? Fingernails can do a lot more damage than rolled up shorts.

I've been reading Atul Gawande's Being Mortal, about the end of life & its indignities, including people my age wearing diapers. Perhaps this explains the revulsion some of the older fans have seeing young women reminding us of our common fate.

On another fashion note, I don't know what to think about the Cinci coach's blouse.

CD was having a lot of trouble with layups (including the memorable one at the end of Q2), but her 3 pt consistency from game to game balanced it out; beautiful arc on her shot. That she usually has to shoot over taller players might be the source of those rainbows? CW did 2 splendid cuts for layups but missed some as well. But she doesn't have a good outside shot to balance her offensive output, at least in this game. Cinci was hitting everything in Q2, so it's not all on the UConn defense. But probably incapable of keeping it up. UConn droughts usually don't last. Megan might well have been MVP if not for the injury. The setup for her 3 pt shot after she came back in Q4 was a delight.

Q3 ONO's 3rd foul on Sifa was retaliation says Megan, but I'm not sure for what, but Sifa headed for the bench with another foul shortly after. A couple of these Cinci players are, as they say, "physical." Please don't get injured Crystal. I hope she keeps a lid on the crazy layups against Oregon (couple of those in the US game as I recall). Interesting to see how ONO fares against Ruthie Hebard, but she was great last night, save for the PF hiatus. In Q4 Megan's comment on Megan's assist to CW was that it was the first time it happened in this game; did she temporarily forget Anna's neat feed to CW in Q1? Nice to see Adebayo getting acclimated.

 

[hart2hart]

If the non-passing the ball to Mak is obvious to a lot of us I wonder why it’s not addressed? AM played very well last night and she should be proud of that! Pass the ball please!
She also had many spot-on passes that were missed layups. A lot! Let’s get back to moving the ball on Monday!

 

[Plebe]

Beg to differ, but on the first foul the defender was still moving. I was 20 feet away.

Highly debatable whether she was still moving, but it's a misconception that the defender has to be stationary. She only has to beat her to the spot, which she did. This is a charge every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

[JoePgh]

On re-watching the game (which I hadn't done when I wrote my last post about Liv's fouls), I agree that her first foul was entirely correct, but her second foul (also a charge on Sam Rogers) was more dubious -- I thought that could have been a block on Rogers. Her third foul, which at the game I thought was just a matter of not looking where she was going as she ran up the court on offense, was apparently a retaliatory play against something that had been done to her on the previous play.

If so, it was a dumb foul -- Olivia can't get her 3rd foul early in the second half on a petty revenge thing. If that is really what it was, then the Cincinnati player won that round decisively, by getting Liv off the floor for the rest of the quarter.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Can Geno depend on Christyn down the stretch going forward? I hope so. Only 9 games left in the regular season. Plenty of time to address whatever needs to be fixed

Squeaks is a person you can count on in a pinch...the whole team knows that. She just isn’t all about herself...

 

[j66kicker]

Up - Did you catch the USA exhibition game?

Of course! I thought it was a fun UConn reunion, but Team USA went through long stretches of not playing serious basketball. In Q4 they buckled down a little bit and had no problem taking care of business. Overall a fun exhibition, but not a serious game.

I’m very optimistic about the Oregon game, though. We always always win the games we’re supposed to win, including this year. Not so for Oregon (for instance I can’t see us ever losing to ASU like they did). So they’re beatable. I see us playing much better defense than the Ducks are used to - if our shots are falling at all we win.

 

[EricLA]

On re-watching the game (which I hadn't done when I wrote my last post about Liv's fouls), I agree that her first foul was entirely correct, but her second foul (also a charge on Sam Rogers) was more dubious -- I thought that could have been a block on Rogers. Her third foul, which at the game I thought was just a matter of not looking where she was going as she ran up the court on offense, was apparently a retaliatory play against something that had been done to her on the previous play.

If so, it was a dumb foul -- Olivia can't get her 3rd foul early in the second half on a petty revenge thing. If that is really what it was, then the Cincinnati player won that round decisively, by getting Liv off the floor for the rest of the quarter.

Totally agree that a retaliatory foul is a bad thing but...

I do like the edge that Olivia seems to be developing. Some UCONN players are just too nice. I can't stand the strategy of "foul us on every play". I'd love to see more "nasty pieces of business" on UCONN's side - something sorely missing since Kia Nurse graduated.