Charlie Creme's Way-Too-Early Top 25

[LETTERL]

Charlie's initial Way Too Early last year was

1. UCONN
2. Utah
3. LSU
4. Iowa
5. Indiana
6. UCLA
7. S. Carolina
8. Ohio St
9. Stanford
10. Notre Dame
11. Tennessee
12. Maryland
13. Texas
14. Virginia Tech
15. Ole Miss
16. Duke
17. Baylor
18. Oregon
19. Florida St
20. Colorado
21. USC
22. Louisville
23. Creighton
24. UNC
25. Washington St.

 

[jdote33]

Ronsiek wants to play one season with her sister, who I think is at Colorado State. One of the Creighton parents told me that at the Big East tournament. All the other Creighton seniors are coming back for a fifth year.

I knew I saw this on the Boneyard. "Insiders" just read posts here. Shout out to this site.

 

[BRS24]

HerHoopStats Way Too Early Top 25

UConn comes in at #3 in this WTE poll.

 

[Vowelguy]

Nobody knows anything concrete the day after the championship game about how things will be a year later. Creme certainly didn't last year. Or this year, in all likelihood. I'm not knocking anyone who enjoys the predictions. Just take them with a grain of salt.

"grain of salt" is true with ANY poll or prediction, of course.

By your argument, one could argue that a preseason poll is pointless. Or that the final regular season poll is useless since the #10 and #11 teams made the final 4.

99% of sports discussion is about speculation. If you don't like year-ahead polls, then don't read em. For the rest of us, they are useful list of the top teams to pay attention to in the offseason.

 

[BRS24]

We have the end of the season AP poll, which is just that. ESPN & The Athletic doing a "way to early poll", and then we'll have all the portal movement, which will definately impact the pre season polls. What interests me will be the swing from these very early WTE polls, to the results of portal player movement, and then the pre-season polls as we get closer to November.

 

[Veteran]

"grain of salt" is true with ANY poll or prediction, of course.

By your argument, one could argue that a preseason poll is pointless. Or that the final regular season poll is useless since the #10 and #11 teams made the final 4.

99% of sports discussion is about speculation. If you don't like year-ahead polls, then don't read em. For the rest of us, they are useful list of the top teams to pay attention to in the offseason.

Perhaps you missed my reply to a comment from CamrnCrz1974 on Monday where I said, "I'm not knocking anyone who enjoys the predictions. Just take them with a grain of salt." Scroll up several comments and you can read it for yourself if you'd like.

And maybe you also failed to notice my point that a prediction the day after the championship game was meaningless. I noted in my Monday reply that it was impossible to know how things would be a year after this week's championship game. And I said absolutely nothing about the final regular season poll, which I think is valid and useful as one gauge of what to expect by then.

And finally, I said nothing about speculation among fans. I have no problem with that at all. I do it, myself on many things. All I said was to take the opinion of so-called experts with a grain of salt so soon after the end of the season. Or am I missing something else that seems to have offended you?

 

[LETTERL]

For the rest of us, they are useful list of the top teams to pay attention to in the offseason.

Then bitch and complain to anybody who will listen!

 

[DrummerDee]

The biggest question mark for both UConn and Notre Dame is the all-important post play.

The portal may provide some answers.

Well, Nat Marshall of ND entered the portal today.

 

[Tonyc]

You've got to be kidding me. UConn goes to the FF this year without. the injured and incoming class and the prediction is UConn is preseason 4?????????? Kinda silly. Barring injuries it should be SC and UConn and everybody else. TX and ND will be very good however the mention of their guards vs UConns Paige and Azzi I dont think so. First of all UConns defense carried them to the FF. Even with Nika graduating you still have KK and Aubrey. Alot depends on alot. That being those coming back from injuries. With our loaded roster everybody demands play time but only those who earn it. We have top recruits all looking for the same thing. Be developed and win championships Geno will see to it that that happens and it will happen on each players pace of development.

To get as far as we did this past season is nothing short of remarkable. With everybody healthy and the freshman class coming in UConn will be crazy good.

 

[cohenzone]

The thing about a way too early ranking is that it is, well, way too early. Guy has nothing else to do.

 

[VaConnFan11]

A #4 ranking to start the season is about right. As many have said on this board, UConn will not be at full strength on Day 1 and that it may be after the new year before they are. Since UConn always plays a difficult schedule early in the season, there could be a couple of early losses.

I think a lot of you are forgetting UConn is going from a Senior Big to a RS Sophomore and a Freshman Big. That's a big gap in talent level.

I personally would have waited until the transfers were done before releasing an early ranking.

 

[ERWUC65]

The thing about a way too early ranking is that it is, well, way too early. Guy has nothing else to do.

It (Way to Early) has become a ritual in most all sports, amateur or pro, so on it goes regardless of the possible effect of league changes and influences. That said, however, it now is almost complete irrelevant due to NIL and the Portal.

 

[cohenzone]

It (Way to Early) has become a ritual in most all sports, amateur or pro, so on it goes regardless of the possible effect of league changes and influences. That said, however, it now is almost complete irrelevant due to NIL and the Portal.

Exactly. It’s a useless zero. Start rankings after say 8 games.

 

[BRS24]

Today's update - Stanford and Oregon State drop out:

Women's Way-Too-Early Top 25: South Carolina stays No. 1, Maryland makes it in

With just over a month left until the season begins, where the best teams fall in behind the Gamecocks -- including the Terrapins.

www.espn.com

I'm a very visual person, so here's what it looks like (and yes, this is what all my WBB stat spreadsheets look like)

 

[yhun89]

I'm putting SOCAL lower until their mainly all freshman roster proves themselves; sometimes it takes a while. With only Rayah and Juju as non freshmen starters, who knows. SC, ND, Texas, UCONN, SOCAL for me.

 

[Bone Dog]

Why did Texas drop?

 

[jdote33]

Why did Texas drop?

Lost Gaston maybe.

I know it's the bottom of the list but I'm a bit lower on Utah. They really need a great year out of Kneepkins to remain in the top 25. I think this was probably written/updated before yesterday as no mention of Liatu King landing at ND and mo mention of Lily Hansford as well. I also think Nikki Collen who I like has some things to prove at Baylor. I know they made the sweet 16 but I think that was in large part to Kitleys injury. I don't think I see top 10 team. It seems ppl r lower on Oklahoma and TCU than I anticipated.

 

[yhun89]

Lost Gaston maybe.

I know it's the bottom of the list but I'm a bit lower on Utah. They really need a great year out of Kneepkins to remain in the top 25. I think this was probably written/updated before yesterday as no mention of Liatu King landing at ND and mo mention of Lily Hansford as well. I also think Nikki Collen who I like has some things to prove at Baylor. I know they made the sweet 16 but I think that was in large part to Kitleys injury. I don't think I see top 10 team. It seems ppl r lower on Oklahoma and TCU than I anticipated.

King just committed lol.

 

[visitingcock]

Today's update - Stanford and Oregon State drop out:

Women's Way-Too-Early Top 25: South Carolina stays No. 1, Maryland makes it in

With just over a month left until the season begins, where the best teams fall in behind the Gamecocks -- including the Terrapins.

www.espn.com

I'm a very visual person, so here's what it looks like (and yes, this is what all my WBB stat spreadsheets look like)
View attachment 100466

If I haven't said it lately: THANKS for all that you do

 

[Tonyc]

These guys can make all the predictions and do all the analysis they want. Geno proved last season just how good of a coach he is. With all those injuries he got his team to the FF. Now his team is loaded. Just think about that for a moment.

 

[MTHusky]

Today's update - Stanford and Oregon State drop out:

Women's Way-Too-Early Top 25: South Carolina stays No. 1, Maryland makes it in

With just over a month left until the season begins, where the best teams fall in behind the Gamecocks -- including the Terrapins.

www.espn.com

I'm a very visual person, so here's what it looks like (and yes, this is what all my WBB stat spreadsheets look like)
View attachment 100466

Thanks for the work that went into this!

 

[yhun89]

These guys can make all the predictions and do all the analysis they want. Geno proved last season just how good of a coach he is. With all those injuries he got his team to the FF. Now his team is loaded. Just think about that for a moment.

Agreed. We could start the season out 0-4 and still probably make a run. People don't understand how hard chemistry is to build sometimes. Look at LSU. Lost to Colorado in a blowout first game, then made it all the way to the Elite 8. We lost to UCLA, Texas, ND, SC, NC St, and we still pulled off a FF.

 

[visitingcock]

Of course Iowa falls off the map - in a single player they lose:
39.3% of their scoring - leader
47.2% of their assists - leader
20.3% of their rebounds - leader
27.3% of their steals - leader
18.2% of their blocks - co-leader
(on the plus side they lose 40% of their TOs.)

Don't care who they have coming in, they aren't replacing all that with 35/minutes per game from any combination of players playing those minutes. It will be a very different team with a very different offense without Clark. Clark either scored or assisted on 67.2% of Iowa's baskets (an astonishing #), and she also took 39.9% of their free throws and 44% of their made free throws.

(And they are also losing two other starters in Martin and Marshall accounting for 23.4% of pts, 22.6% of assists, 18% of rebounds, 30.1 of steals and 21.8% of blocks combined.)

Does anybody wanna breakdown the percentages south Carolina lost last year?

With that rhetorical question having been posed, I do expect a large drop off in talent for Iowa this year. But the drop off in competitiveness may not be as steep as some think. Lisa is a good coach and may be able to float them along next year at least the top 32 level and perhaps much higher. I would put them at 25 to start the season and returning to Big 10 Contender status within a couple of years.

Iowa is on the map now and their community support is second to none.

 

[yhun89]

Does anybody wanna breakdown the percentages south Carolina lost last year?

With that rhetorical question having been posed, I do expect a large drop off in talent for Iowa this year. But the drop off in competitiveness may not be as steep as some think. Lisa is a good coach and may be able to float them along next year at least the top 32 level and perhaps much higher. I would put them at 25 to start the season and returning to Big 10 Contender status within a couple of years.

Iowa is on the map now and their community support is second to none.

Iowa shouldn’t be in the 25 to start. They only landed one good transfer. Lucy Olsen is NOT enough to make up for the loss of Martin, Clark, Davis, and Marshall. It doesn’t matter how good a coach Bluder is. Bottom line is, she lost more than half her starters, and her best defender. Not to mention Lucy Olsen’s performance against good teams with good defense (UCONN) was abysmal. 6 points on 2-12 shooting or something. Bringing in Teagan and Guyton is fine, but they’re unproven.

 

[visitingcock]

Iowa shouldn’t be in the 25 to start. They only landed one good transfer. Lucy Olsen is NOT enough to make up for the loss of Martin, Clark, Davis, and Marshall. It doesn’t matter how good a coach Bluder is. Bottom line is, she lost more than half her starters, and her best defender. Not to mention Lucy Olsen’s performance against good teams with good defense (UCONN) was abysmal. 6 points on 2-12 shooting or something. Bringing in Teagan and Guyton is fine, but they’re unproven.

Bottom line was that Dawn lost 4.5 starters and her top bench player yeah, it’s different but it’s not necessarily the “ bottom line.”