Ceiling?

[BobbyJ]

I don't think people have misconceptions about player's ability in college. In college making All-American teams defines excellent players. You make those teams based on college performance not your high school reputation. Also where you are drafted for WNBA is an evaluation of college results.

Still a player's hs ranking never goes away though, and that ranking becomes a definition for the amount of 'talent' a coach is able to recruit. I've yet to hear about the coach who said "the US#1 recruit wanted to come to my school, but I told them they were overrated, and chose high potential recruit #97 instead."

So Coach Mulkey can say "South Carolina has 10 McDonald's HS AllAmericans playing over there", or the media can write "UConn is first team to ever start three US#1 recruits/Gatorade Award Winners" on one team.Th at's just a way to describe the base of talent on a team.

While we are frustrated that we are not playing up to potential, this '25 UConn team has plenty of talent. Paige, Azzi, Kaitlyn and Aubrey will all end up in at least a WNBA training camp. Sarah, KK, Ash, Allie and Morgan all future pros too, if they continue current development track.

If we can keep building, and play up to our talent level, we can still win a title.

1) I agree with this since it is one point I'm making. I said you have to prove it at the college level.
2) I mentioned nothing about a coach refusing to recruit or accept any player. The most successful coaches do their own evaluations and it has nothing to do with some website's rankings. It's the fans that fall in love with those rankings and then overrate the players based on speculation that they will deliver NCs. The other point is that great looking rosters aren't as important as championship winning rosters. This UConn team doesn't have that yet.
3) This is possible of course but again, all speculation at this point. And if some of them do, it won't have anything to do with their HS rankings. It will of course be due to their college production.

 

[packwrap]

Just on your point 2. Sure coaches do their own evaluations, but it's important to note the top 10-20 schools are all picking from the same top 100 list. None of these teams bring in any unknown kids. Also that means that the recruiting services generally do a very good job identifying talent. One would think if the rankings were poor, some top coach would bring someone in who was not on the list.

Also most of these top kids are getting 20-50 scholarship offers, so a coach may offer 20 scholarships in a year hoping to get 4 players to accept. They then have to work with who they get, not necessarily exactly who they really wanted.

Similarly, the WNBA draft won't get every pick right, but they are all coming direct from the all American lists. No surprises.

It's only in the bottom half of Division 1 at schools ranked in the NET at 150-300, and Div 2 and 3, where coaches are searching through the back country to find the great player that somehow slipped through the cracks in the recruiting process. These coaches all wish they could have Top 100 kids, but those players are already gobbled up by the better college programs.

Note on current UConn roster, with exception of Kaitlyn #66, Q #41 and Jana (International) every player was rated in top 15 in their class! Geno is not having to search very far to evaluate and find his players, so it has 'everything to do with some web site's ratings'.

 

[Tonyc]

I just watched Texas beat South Carolina and LSU beat Tennessee. We can beat both those teams we need to play to our potential. I was not impressed with either game just a little wild sometimes out of control. In big games we need to play our game. We are way too good to have three losses

 

[fomalhaut]

Connecticut could have beaten Tennessee by making a few more layups: at one point they were 11-19, and I don't think it improved much
(they don't apparently archive the live stats).

There is no one Connecticut can't beat if they play their A game, but they've been woefully inconsistent in big games.

 

[Skeets]

After the UT loss, much has been written about this team. It made me think of comparisons to the 2019-20 team - the year of the pandemic and tournament cancellation. Like this years' version, UConn stumbled in their biggest non conference games. They lost to Baylor by (16) and Oregon by (18) at home, and lost to SC by (18) on the road. UConn finished with a 29-3 record, and another Final Four was potentially in the cards, but a NC possibility was not very realistic.

UConn hasn't played SC yet, but in their marque games so far, they have come up short, albeit very close contests. Unlike the 2019-20 team, this year's version has a former NPOY on its roster, and a likely future candidate for NPOY. The talent is there, the pedigree and coaching remains, so what does this team need to get over the hump?

SC has the best talent from top to bottom. UCLA presents a matchup nightmare with Lauren Betts. ND is a long-time nemesis, and might have the best starting five in the country. Add in USC, Texas, LSU as potential roadblocks to another Final Four appearance.

So far, UConn has won against teams it is supposed to beat. Are they capable of beating the teams listed above? Yes, they can. To do so, it starts with Paige. If she continues playing more as a facilitator rather than a leading scorer, the ceiling for this team dims. If she finally commits to and implements her pre-season proclamations of being an aggressive scorer, their chances shine brighter.

The season is quickly winding down, with March around the corner. Maybe I am guilty of overestimating this team's talent, but I don't think so. They need a definitive go-to leader, someone who has been there before. Paige has the lowest shots per game average of her career. She can still be a facilitator, but she needs to be an initiator first. If/when she does, the other players feed off of it/her, allowing UConn's talent to blossom.

There are other factors to consider, like getting Sarah more actively involved in the offense, more screens for Azzi to free her up, more PT for Aubrey, better team rebounding and perimeter defense, and finding a way to keep Jana on the court, but it all begins with Paige.

It's her last go-around, and I'm inclined to believe her teammates wouldn't mind seeing her be more aggressive for the remainder of their games.

What is important is you have to believe, TRULY believe, that you are better than the team you are playing against. If you don't believe that, you've pretty much already lost. Against the top teams, I question whether UConn truly believes they are the better team. They don't seem to have the chest thumping swagger of UConn teams of old. (I predict this is not going to be a popular post.)

 

[CL82]

Could it be that Paige is playing to drop out of the #1 draft pick position?

No.

 

[BobbyJ]

Just on your point 2. Sure coaches do their own evaluations, but it's important to note the top 10-20 schools are all picking from the same top 100 list. None of these teams bring in any unknown kids. Also that means that the recruiting services generally do a very good job identifying talent. One would think if the rankings were poor, some top coach would bring someone in who was not on the list.

Also most of these top kids are getting 20-50 scholarship offers, so a coach may offer 20 scholarships in a year hoping to get 4 players to accept. They then have to work with who they get, not necessarily exactly who they really wanted.

Similarly, the WNBA draft won't get every pick right, but they are all coming direct from the all American lists. No surprises.

It's only in the bottom half of Division 1 at schools ranked in the NET at 150-300, and Div 2 and 3, where coaches are searching through the back country to find the great player that somehow slipped through the cracks in the recruiting process. These coaches all wish they could have Top 100 kids, but those players are already gobbled up by the better college programs.

Note on current UConn roster, with exception of Kaitlyn #66, Q #41 and Jana (International) every player was rated in top 15 in their class! Geno is not having to search very far to evaluate and find his players, so it has 'everything to do with some web site's ratings'.

This last comment makes me unsure if you're aware of how Auriemma does find and evaluate players. Like other coaches, he actually does search very far. For the most part the top 100 and many more play in one of either the Nike, UA, or Adidas summer circuits. These tournaments are played over several sessions all around the country during the NCAA evaluation periods. GA and his staff spread out and attend these sometimes simultaneously to follow and evaluate kids. And they start as early as Jr. HS age tracking their physical and competitive progress over several years building their files and they see most every kid in the US that in their opinion has UConn potential. He has no need of a website's rankings because these summer sessions are the same places that the websites do theirs. And of course there are various reasons why he doesn't offer certain players that the websites think are top 1 to say 50 talents. There are probably many lower level programs that rely on those rankings but the top 30 or so schools don't really need them. If you were to camp out at these summer sessions for days like these websites do, you'd know it's not hard to identify the top 100 players around the country. Good coaches don't need much help.

 

[MooseJaw]

No.

Once again, I agree, That is not what has taken place. We all agree, so maybe you can explain her apparent play when she appears to check out.

 

[CL82]

Once again, I agree, That is not what has taken place. We all agree, so maybe you can explain her apparent play when she appears to check out.

Then why even suggest that she is deliberately sand bagging her senior season?

I don't have an answer to the rest of your post, but I know exactly what you are seeing and it is definitely a thing. If I were to guess, it would be that perhaps Paige lost some quickness and or agility due to injury, and that's made her less confident. But I don't feel confident that that's actually the answer. Is it just being a good teammate and deferring excessively to others? I don't know. Again, the difference between being good and greatness is really a hair breath here. She's awfully close, but it does seem like some tiny fraction is currently missing.

For what it's worth, I see a similar… something… with Azzi. You see burst of her astonishing talent, but then it's seemingly disappears. I can't see anything specific to understand why it's happening.

 

[Ozimoto]

I can't help but wonder what this team would be like if Nika were still around...

If they can't figure out how to play loose and with joy against the top teams their ceiling will be the elite eight. If they can get over that the sky is the limit. Unfortunately, I haven't seen any evidence that gives me a sense that this is happening or will happen.

 

[MooseJaw]

Then why even suggest that she is deliberately sand bagging her senior season?

I don't have an answer to the rest of your post, but I know exactly what you are seeing and it is definitely a thing. If I were to guess, it would be that perhaps Paige lost some quickness and or agility due to injury, and that's made her less confident. But I don't feel confident that that's actually the answer. Is it just being a good teammate and deferring excessively to others? I don't know. Again, the difference between being good and greatness is really a hair breath here. She's awfully close, but it does seem like some tiny fraction is currently missing.

For what it's worth, I see a similar… something… with Azzi. You see burst of her astonishing talent, but then it's seemingly disappears. I can't see anything specific to understand why it's happening.

Asking a question is nowhere the same as suggesting something to be so. If deferring and playing less than your best is in order than be prepared for an early exit. I agree about Azzi, she has no real history on healthy and complete seasons since her initial injury. Seems like the Princess as Paige calls her may be giving everything she has in games. It is unfortunate if so, then she and coach have to re-evaluate what can be expected, her swings are not easy to coach thru.
I am sold on Paige and Azzi, Paige, my favorite UConn Husky of all times, I find no problem speaking my mind when I see trends on the court. I and others have mentioned it. It must be put back, no games off, full effort, no standing around and if open shoot the dang ball.

 

[CL82]

Asking a question is nowhere the same as suggesting something to be so

Are you a jerk?

 

[johnhelvete]

The ceiling is the roof.

 

[HuskyNan]

Just on your point 2. Sure coaches do their own evaluations, but it's important to note the top 10-20 schools are all picking from the same top 100 list. None of these teams bring in any unknown kids. Also that means that the recruiting services generally do a very good job identifying talent. One would think if the rankings were poor, some top coach would bring someone in who was not on the list.

Also most of these top kids are getting 20-50 scholarship offers, so a coach may offer 20 scholarships in a year hoping to get 4 players to accept. They then have to work with who they get, not necessarily exactly who they really wanted.

Similarly, the WNBA draft won't get every pick right, but they are all coming direct from the all American lists. No surprises.

It's only in the bottom half of Division 1 at schools ranked in the NET at 150-300, and Div 2 and 3, where coaches are searching through the back country to find the great player that somehow slipped through the cracks in the recruiting process. These coaches all wish they could have Top 100 kids, but those players are already gobbled up by the better college programs.

Note on current UConn roster, with exception of Kaitlyn #66, Q #41 and Jana (International) every player was rated in top 15 in their class! Geno is not having to search very far to evaluate and find his players, so it has 'everything to do with some web site's ratings'.

Years ago, I was speaking with an AAU coach in Connecticut and he told me Geno called him fairly regularly. They’d have a friendly conversation but Geno would ask about the AAU coach’s players or any players he might have seen that the coach thought Geno should see. The coach said he’d never had a player remotely good enough to play at UConn but Geno still called him. That’s how coaches dig up the hidden gems - networking. That’s how he got Gandy‘s name, btw, info from his network as well as Nika and other international prospects.

Geno goes to AAU and high school games to check out top recruits, yes, but he’s watching all the players not just the highly ranked ones. Years ago, he went to watch Alexis Hornbuckle’s high school game in West Virginia but ended up recruiting the point guard on Alexis’s team - Renee Montgomery. Geno recruits the players he likes, ratings be damned

 

[Steelerone]

After the UT loss, much has been written about this team. It made me think of comparisons to the 2019-20 team - the year of the pandemic and tournament cancellation. Like this years' version, UConn stumbled in their biggest non conference games. They lost to Baylor by (16) and Oregon by (18) at home, and lost to SC by (18) on the road. UConn finished with a 29-3 record, and another Final Four was potentially in the cards, but a NC possibility was not very realistic.

UConn hasn't played SC yet, but in their marque games so far, they have come up short, albeit very close contests. Unlike the 2019-20 team, this year's version has a former NPOY on its roster, and a likely future candidate for NPOY. The talent is there, the pedigree and coaching remains, so what does this team need to get over the hump?

SC has the best talent from top to bottom. UCLA presents a matchup nightmare with Lauren Betts. ND is a long-time nemesis, and might have the best starting five in the country. Add in USC, Texas, LSU as potential roadblocks to another Final Four appearance.

So far, UConn has won against teams it is supposed to beat. Are they capable of beating the teams listed above? Yes, they can. To do so, it starts with Paige. If she continues playing more as a facilitator rather than a leading scorer, the ceiling for this team dims. If she finally commits to and implements her pre-season proclamations of being an aggressive scorer, their chances shine brighter.

The season is quickly winding down, with March around the corner. Maybe I am guilty of overestimating this team's talent, but I don't think so. They need a definitive go-to leader, someone who has been there before. Paige has the lowest shots per game average of her career. She can still be a facilitator, but she needs to be an initiator first. If/when she does, the other players feed off of it/her, allowing UConn's talent to blossom.

There are other factors to consider, like getting Sarah more actively involved in the offense, more screens for Azzi to free her up, more PT for Aubrey, better team rebounding and perimeter defense, and finding a way to keep Jana on the court, but it all begins with Paige.

It's her last go-around, and I'm inclined to believe her teammates wouldn't mind seeing her be more aggressive for the remainder of their games.

Maybe it might be time to turn the "Paige". The team, while leaning on her, appears to fall into whichever stream she is floating on that night. If Paige is hitting", we can hit. If Paige misses, "Oh, oh, now what am I going to do." I get a little fatigued at hearing Geno say "No one can guard Paige", only to see every lock down guard we play do it.

 

[jonack]

Sweet 16