Ceiling?

[Surly1]

After the UT loss, much has been written about this team. It made me think of comparisons to the 2019-20 team - the year of the pandemic and tournament cancellation. Like this years' version, UConn stumbled in their biggest non conference games. They lost to Baylor by (16) and Oregon by (18) at home, and lost to SC by (18) on the road. UConn finished with a 29-3 record, and another Final Four was potentially in the cards, but a NC possibility was not very realistic.

UConn hasn't played SC yet, but in their marque games so far, they have come up short, albeit very close contests. Unlike the 2019-20 team, this year's version has a former NPOY on its roster, and a likely future candidate for NPOY. The talent is there, the pedigree and coaching remains, so what does this team need to get over the hump?

SC has the best talent from top to bottom. UCLA presents a matchup nightmare with Lauren Betts. ND is a long-time nemesis, and might have the best starting five in the country. Add in USC, Texas, LSU as potential roadblocks to another Final Four appearance.

So far, UConn has won against teams it is supposed to beat. Are they capable of beating the teams listed above? Yes, they can. To do so, it starts with Paige. If she continues playing more as a facilitator rather than a leading scorer, the ceiling for this team dims. If she finally commits to and implements her pre-season proclamations of being an aggressive scorer, their chances shine brighter.

The season is quickly winding down, with March around the corner. Maybe I am guilty of overestimating this team's talent, but I don't think so. They need a definitive go-to leader, someone who has been there before. Paige has the lowest shots per game average of her career. She can still be a facilitator, but she needs to be an initiator first. If/when she does, the other players feed off of it/her, allowing UConn's talent to blossom.

There are other factors to consider, like getting Sarah more actively involved in the offense, more screens for Azzi to free her up, more PT for Aubrey, better team rebounding and perimeter defense, and finding a way to keep Jana on the court, but it all begins with Paige.

It's her last go-around, and I'm inclined to believe her teammates wouldn't mind seeing her be more aggressive for the remainder of their games.

 

[Dogdude]

Spot on with all of this.

 

[PacoSwede]

yes ... but i'm inclined to believe paige will continue to do it her own way, because she is convinced it's the right way --- even though she is wrong and in fact is being selfish while dedicated to the notion she's being unselfish. ... i hope she sees the light, but not confident.

 

[Conndog]

Paige being more active and scoring more should force more of opponent’s defense to focus on her, which should free others for their own shots. I’m a bit concerned that Azzi is struggling- she needs help to get free, or she won’t be the scoring factor she could be.

 

[Tonyc]

Nothing is as good as it seems and nothing is as bad as it looks. Nice post Surly 1. We are not playing up to our potential in big games. It comes down to poise. We are rushing and panicking. We need somebody to settle us down and that comes from our guards. Tempo poise and patience. We need to execute good shots not just shoot a quick shot when we're open.

We have way more talent then most teams. We have 3 go to players that we depend on. They need to get open, they need to create off the dribble and they need to execute a good shot with poise. Our shooting percentages tell us we do however in big games havent because we rush. In big games we need our guards to set the tempo.

When you look at ND they have Hidalgo and USC has Juju. They get open and hits shots. We have 3 players like them who we need what they do.

Todays game against Prov is a good game to work on what we need to fix. We are much better then our 3 losses showed. We need to play to our potential. The reason KK and Griff shined in the Tenn game is because they are athletic. They put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. We need everybody else to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. We neeed to be more athletic. We have in lesser games. We dont in big games imo for because we hesitate. My solution to that is do what you fear most. Attack the basket and whatever happens happens. You either score, miss or get fouled. I want to see that today.

 

[MooseJaw]

Could it be that Paige is playing to drop out of the #1 draft pick position? Just a thought, maybe unintentionally, however 2 things can be true at the same time. Paige may be backing off to give her teammates the need to pick up their game and subconsciously reacting to her draft status. It is perplexing, I just want Paige the player of the year back.

 

[EricLA]

I think the ceiling is the elite 8 for this team, even as it stands now and if/when they get Ice back. Of course it will depend on matchups. We got killed 2 years ago by tOSU's press and then they promptly lost to Va Tech with a slow unathletic guard breaking the press entirely on her own - something we were incapable of doing. Matchups, preparation, and coaching.

The Tennessee game showed that we CAN lose to any team in the top 16. Having said that, I'd love to face USC again. But unless we beat SC, we are no better than a 3 seed. That means in the sweet 16 we'd likely face a 6 seed which should be a team "like" Creighton. However in the elite 8, it would be a 2 seed, and unless we get a lucky draw, I just don't see us winning.

Side note, Geno was right to call out Paige. Gone are the days of the big time player from her freshman year. And Azzi is no better. The rest of this season, excluding SC, will be against BE teams that we will slaughter, and much like the games leading up to Tennessee (beatdowns of Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova, DePaul), fans will be lulled into a false sense of security. The 11 point win over Creighton with our 20% shooting from 3 was a warning bell that against "better" teams, we have trouble scoring.

Right now Creme has us as a 2 seed with UNC as our 3 seed - a team we already beat. In that scenario I like our chances a lot. Matchups matter...

Having said that, I love this team - love the players, and will root for them till the last second in their last game.

 

[Vowelguy]

Could it be that Paige is playing to drop out of the #1 draft pick position? I

No

 

[hookshot]

I think the ceiling is the elite 8 for this team, even as it stands now and if/when they get Ice back. Of course it will depend on matchups. We got killed 2 years ago by tOSU's press and then they promptly lost to Va Tech with a slow unathletic guard breaking the press entirely on her own - something we were incapable of doing. Matchups, preparation, and coaching.

The Tennessee game showed that we CAN lose to any team in the top 16. Having said that, I'd love to face USC again. But unless we beat SC, we are no better than a 3 seed. That means in the sweet 16 we'd likely face a 6 seed which should be a team "like" Creighton. However in the elite 8, it would be a 2 seed, and unless we get a lucky draw, I just don't see us winning.

Side note, Geno was right to call out Paige. Gone are the days of the big time player from her freshman year. And Azzi is no better. The rest of this season, excluding SC, will be against BE teams that we will slaughter, and much like the games leading up to Tennessee (beatdowns of Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova, DePaul), fans will be lulled into a false sense of security. The 11 point win over Creighton with our 20% shooting from 3 was a warning bell that against "better" teams, we have trouble scoring.

Right now Creme has us as a 2 seed with UNC as our 3 seed - a team we already beat. In that scenario I like our chances a lot. Matchups matter...

Having said that, I love this team - love the players, and will root for them till the last second in their last game.

Geno called out his "best players" (presumably Paige and Azzi, perhaps giving a pass to Sarah as a high performing freshman)

 

[hookshot]

Could it be that Paige is playing to drop out of the #1 draft pick position? Just a thought, maybe unintentionally, however 2 things can be true at the same time. Paige may be backing off to give her teammates the need to pick up their game and subconsciously reacting to her draft status. It is perplexing, I just want Paige the player of the year back.

Not

 

[Duncan Idaho]

I think the ceiling is the elite 8 for this team, even as it stands now and if/when they get Ice back. Of course it will depend on matchups. We got killed 2 years ago by tOSU's press and then they promptly lost to Va Tech with a slow unathletic guard breaking the press entirely on her own - something we were incapable of doing. Matchups, preparation, and coaching.

The Tennessee game showed that we CAN lose to any team in the top 16. Having said that, I'd love to face USC again. But unless we beat SC, we are no better than a 3 seed. That means in the sweet 16 we'd likely face a 6 seed which should be a team "like" Creighton. However in the elite 8, it would be a 2 seed, and unless we get a lucky draw, I just don't see us winning.

Side note, Geno was right to call out Paige. Gone are the days of the big time player from her freshman year. And Azzi is no better. The rest of this season, excluding SC, will be against BE teams that we will slaughter, and much like the games leading up to Tennessee (beatdowns of Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova, DePaul), fans will be lulled into a false sense of security. The 11 point win over Creighton with our 20% shooting from 3 was a warning bell that against "better" teams, we have trouble scoring.

Right now Creme has us as a 2 seed with UNC as our 3 seed - a team we already beat. In that scenario I like our chances a lot. Matchups matter...

Having said that, I love this team - love the players, and will root for them till the last second in their last game.

They really have only two go-to players against the better teams on the schedule. If one of them is off its going to be very tough advancing far in the tournament.

 

[ABCDFE]

Ceiling is Championship game for me. But thats only if the big 3 play up to their potential and we have a 4th scorer in Chen/Shade step up big. Then it's high impact players like KK and Aubrey playing lights out D and getting us some steals, transition, free throws etc.

Floor is Sweet Sixteen. And to be quite honest I think the realistic bet is we are somewhere in Elite 8/Final 4 this year, depending on matchups

 

[ConnMotors]

I’m with Eric on this one. It’s Elite 8. Hoping that I’m wrong though. As mentioned before with Geno not landing a post player from the portal will cost this team.

 

[packwrap]

Shooting is important.

In TX big loss to SC they shot 28% with 1 three.

In TX win today vs SC 44% with 0 threes.

UConn has been competitive in all 3 losses. Just a bit better shooting and we can get over the hump. None of SC, TX, LSU, ND, USC or UCLA is unbeatable.

 

[Baltic]

Watching Texas/SC convinces me that UConn is at a major disadvantage in size and over all athleticism. Coaching could give us an advantage, but the top level coaches have improved overall and is probably a wash. Right now the only players who can successfully penetrate are Paige, Sarah and KK. Three point shooting is at best average against more accomplished competition. Freshman development is well behind expectations.

An Elite 8 is a realistic expectation. Hopefully Paige will understand that being selfish on the court (Caitlin Clark like) will be critical to the advancement of the Huskies. Competition in the Big East is not helpful for preparing for an NCAA run.

 

[Rowdy831]

SC has the best talent from top to bottom. UCLA presents a matchup nightmare with Lauren Betts. ND is a long-time nemesis, and might have the best starting five in the country. Add in USC, Texas, LSU as potential roadblocks to another Final Four appearance.

UConn has three number 1 recruits on their roster so I would argue they have the best roster. In my opinion Geno is not getting the most out of his team and that starts with having a third guard that brings nothing extra to the team. I am not talking about the player, I am talking about the position and they need to have a true 4 in the game and Jana so they can play a real defense in the half court and don't count games like today as a great defense. That was an awful opponent.

 

[Rowdy831]

If UConn continues to play a small lineup they will not make to the Elite 8. They can't match up with the better teams with smaller lineups and they don't match up at all against decent teams with size. Paige is not the problem either, it is the person taking the ball out of her hands in every game.

 

[packwrap]

I am not talking about the player, I am talking about the position and they need to have a true 4 in the game and Jana so they can play a real defense in the half court and don't count games like today as a great defense. That was an awful opponent.

We have to play 2 front court players. Sarah will be one for 38 or so minutes.

When we play Jana/Ice against better teams, they get eaten alive, because they are slow and immobile. So poor defense and little rebounding.

Then add that they are also not much threat on offense, and opponent can double Paige or Sarah.

With small second frontcourt player of Aubrey/Morgan/Azzie we do lose on height but gain on defense, rebounding and offense.

Geno played Jana 11 min v Tenn, and used mix of smalls for 29 min. Same challenge at SC. Who do we play against Kitts, Feagin, Dauda and Edwards? Particularly Kitts and Edwards are very quick.

 

[JellyBean]

The "Ceiling" for me is the Final Four. A lot of folks are always underestimating Coach G and team. Just like last season when we went with the whole small ball lineup. All we heard/read about was "how the team is too small. They will never succeed". We all know how that turned out. There is a lot of basketball left and a lot of teams. So many factors at play. I am not giving up on this squad. We have some incredibly talented players on this roster. Things will work out just fine. I see another Final Four run.

 

[BobbyJ]

UConn has three number 1 recruits on their roster so I would argue they have the best roster. In my opinion Geno is not getting the most out of his team and that starts with having a third guard that brings nothing extra to the team. I am not talking about the player, I am talking about the position and they need to have a true 4 in the game and Jana so they can play a real defense in the half court and don't count games like today as a great defense. That was an awful opponent.

This is one of the main misconceptions that you and others have about this team. HS rankings were based on performance against HS kids. This is D1 high level college BB. HS performance doesn't guarantee success at this level. If a kid can't make shots and beat athletic, physical defenders of the top 10 teams in the country under pressure, those HS rankings don't mean squat. And pretty rosters don't either. You have to prove it up here.

 

[JoePgh]

yes ... but i'm inclined to believe paige will continue to do it her own way, because she is convinced it's the right way --- even though she is wrong and in fact is being selfish while dedicated to the notion she's being unselfish. ... i hope she sees the light, but not confident.

Watching today's Providence game live, I thought that Paige clearly got the message that she needs to be a leading scorer and make things happen. She wasn't as efficient as she often is (6-12 and 2-5 from 3), but she scored 20 points and got to the line for 6 free throws. I thought she was trying to drive through defenders to the hoop at the slightest opportunity -- something that she usually hasn't done this season.

She still had 5 assists and zero turnovers.

 

[Zarathustra]

Watching Texas/SC convinces me that UConn is at a major disadvantage in size and over all athleticism. Coaching could give us an advantage, but the top level coaches have improved overall and is probably a wash. Right now the only players who can successfully penetrate are Paige, Sarah and KK. Three point shooting is at best average against more accomplished competition. Freshman development is well behind expectations.

An Elite 8 is a realistic expectation. Hopefully Paige will understand that being selfish on the court (Caitlin Clark like) will be critical to the advancement of the Huskies. Competition in the Big East is not helpful for preparing for an NCAA run.

Please.... add Aubrey Griffin to " can successfully penetrate ".
The "ceiling" is always the top of the room... go HUSKIES!

 

[Nolefan]

Imo too much finesse and just need to play more aggressive stop avoiding contact and get to the free throw line .. other team can’t beat you with their best players on the bench . Paige as great as she is has not played great against top opposition ..

 

[packwrap]

This is one of the main misconceptions that you and others have about this team. HS rankings were based on performance against HS kids. This is D1 high level college BB. HS performance doesn't guarantee success at this level. If a kid can't make shots and beat athletic, physical defenders of the top 10 teams in the country under pressure, those HS rankings don't mean squat. And pretty rosters don't either. You have to prove it up here.

I don't think people have misconceptions about player's ability in college. In college making All-American teams defines excellent players. You make those teams based on college performance not your high school reputation. Also where you are drafted for WNBA is an evaluation of college results.

Still a player's hs ranking never goes away though, and that ranking becomes a definition for the amount of 'talent' a coach is able to recruit. I've yet to hear about the coach who said "the US#1 recruit wanted to come to my school, but I told them they were overrated, and chose high potential recruit #97 instead."

So Coach Mulkey can say "South Carolina has 10 McDonald's HS AllAmericans playing over there", or the media can write "UConn is first team to ever start three US#1 recruits/Gatorade Award Winners" on one team. That's just a way to describe the base of talent on a team.

While we are frustrated that we are not playing up to potential, this '25 UConn team has plenty of talent. Paige, Azzi, Kaitlyn and Aubrey will all end up in at least a WNBA training camp. Sarah, KK, Ash, Allie and Morgan all future pros too, if they continue current development track.

If we can keep building, and play up to our talent level, we can still win a title.

 

[Vowelguy]

UConn has three number 1 recruits on their roster so I would argue they have the best roster.

News flash: recruiting rankings can be wrong.
Still think Mikayla Blakes was the 8th best player in the frosh class or Audi Crooks was 57th best in last year's?

In my opinion Geno is not getting the most out of his team and that starts with having a third guard that brings nothing extra to the team. I am not talking about the player, I am talking about the position and they need to have a true 4 in the game and Jana

I'm curious where you think the magic wand is going to come from that will make Jana a great post player this season.

Of course the small lineup isnt the first choice. That's why Jana starts. But Geno goes to it when other things don't work. And it has been effective at times (see USC).