Can we get an updated AAC bracket?

[navery12]

but if you’re Michigan with 13 losses rolling into the tourney, you’re fine...

They're in the Big Ten, we're in the AAC still

 

[Slasher]

but if you’re Michigan with 13 losses rolling into the tourney, you’re fine...

This seems like a weird complaint considering Michigan has a better record than UConn (18-11 vs 17-12) and has played #10 SOS whereas UConn's is #81. So they have a better record against tougher competition. They're 11-12 against Q1/Q2 whereas UConn is 4-10 with all wins coming in Q2.

 

[Get a Job]

but if you’re Michigan with 13 losses rolling into the tourney, you’re fine...

Astoundingly naive take

 

[BlueDogs]

They're in the Big Ten, we're in the AAC still

Have watched Michigan or others this year? Not too impressive. Our boys could hold their own. Maybe Maryland and MSU are too much but that’s about it

 

[uconngb]

Have watched Michigan or others this year? Not too impressive. Our boys could hold their own. Maybe Maryland and MSU are too much but that’s about it

Um, that's not quite how this works

 

[Shine33]

When is the last time a Big 10 team cut down the nets? They are typically overrated

 

[BlueDogs]

This seems like a weird complaint considering Michigan has a better record than UConn (18-11 vs 17-12) and has played #10 SOS whereas UConn's is #81. So they have a better record against tougher competition. They're 11-12 against Q1/Q2 whereas UConn is 4-10 with all wins coming in Q2.

Self licking ice cream cone. There SOS is driven by the conference which in turn drives SOS. There is a reason why there are more Cinderellas breaking through than there should be. Because after the top 10 teams the margins between the next 30 are pretty small. I’d give us a winning chance against any team outside the top 10 today. Doesn’t mean we win, it means we can on any given day.

 

[Waterbury]

but if you’re Michigan with 13 losses rolling into the tourney, you’re fine...

If we could beat good teams down the stretch next year we can get the treatment that Providence is getting now. Nobody's going to reward us for anything less than stellar in this conference.

 

[BlueDogs]

Um, that's not quite how this works

Umm, that’s the point. The system rewards mediocrity in strong SoS conferences. Non- P5 schools work at a huge deficit.

 

[BlueDogs]

As I’ve said if we flipped 2 losses, I don’t think we would be on the outside. Temple loss was a dagger and bigger than it looked. All of this is even more moot without a Houston win.

 

[navery12]

Have watched Michigan or others this year? Not too impressive. Our boys could hold their own. Maybe Maryland and MSU are too much but that’s about it

Do I think we could beat Michigan? Absolutely. I think we could hold our own with about 340 of the 350 teams in D1. But the reality is we haven't faced or beaten as many good teams as Michigan which is why they'll be in and we need a run in the AAC tournament

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Umm, that’s the point. The system rewards mediocrity in strong SoS conferences. Non- P5 schools work at a huge deficit.

Next year we will be using SOS as our main argument if we're on the bubble. This is just reason #482 why AAC sucks.

 

[BlueDogs]

Do I think we could beat Michigan? Absolutely. I think we could hold our own with about 340 of the 350 teams in D1. But the reality is we haven't faced or beaten as many good teams as Michigan which is why they'll be in and we need a run in the AAC tournament

Absolutely agree. Sadly, we get no credit for tough hairsplitting losses.

 

[auror]

We've agreed that our ideal matchup is Tulsa in the quarters.

There are 2 ways that can happen:

• As the 7 seed if Tulsa gets the 2 seed,
• As the 6 seed if Tulsa gets the 3 seed

Tulsa can't get below 3 and we can't get below 7 at this point.

Tulsa currently has a game in hand against Cincinnati with the same number of wins, but have 2 road games remaining, whereas Cincy only has game left which is home. Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker, also.

Tulsa is @Temple tonight and @Wichita St. on Sunday. They are 1 point underdogs tonight and 8 point underdogs against Wichita. Both games will be senior nights, and Wichita will be playing for an NCAA at-large bid. It is extremely likely that Tulsa will lose at least one of those games: 88% according to KenPom. Which means...

Thanks to their big emotional comeback win last night, if Cincy wins their last game they will likely be the #2 seed. They play Saturday at home on senior night vs. Temple, and they are 10 point favorites (81% chance to win). Factoring in Tulsa's odds, this gives Cincinnati a 71% chance overall of being the 2 seed. The health of Cumberland factors into this a little bit, so keep an eye on that.

 

[auror]

If Cincy gets the #2 seed, that means Tulsa would get the #3 seed. In which case, we'd want to be the #6 seed. We're currently 1 game behind both Memphis and SMU with the same number of games remaining. We would need to pass either one of them for the 6th, but we don't want to jump both to get the 5th.

There are no head to head games between the three of us remaining. Here are all 6 remaining games:

• SMU @ UCF, tonight, 49%
• UConn vs. Houston, tomorrow, 43% (our senior night)
• Memphis vs. Wichita St, tomorrow, 52% (Memphis senior night, although they have no relevant seniors)
• SMU @ USF, Saturday, 47% (USF senior night)
• Memphis @ Houston, Sunday, 17% (Houston senior night)
• UConn @ Tulane, Sunday, 71% (Tulane senior night)

We're all projected to win about 1 of the 2 games, with Memphis having the best chance of going 0-2 and us the best of 2-0.

Tiebreakers

• SMU will own the tiebreak over us or the group of 3 teams due to head to head records. We would get 2nd in a 3 way tiebreaker since SMU swept Memphis and only beat us once.
• If we beat Houston and are then tied solely with Memphis, we'd win the tiebreak because of our record against Tulsa, unless Memphis also beats Houston and is still solely tied with us in which case they'd win due to their sweep against Houston.
• If we lose to Houston and end up tied solely with Memphis, we would lose the tiebreak due to Memphis winning at least one game with Houston.

 

[GHSWolverines]

but if you’re Michigan with 13 losses rolling into the tourney, you’re fine...

the committee always favors the B10

 

[navery12]

I've gone through a ton of scenarios and the 5 seed really seems to be the most likely scenario, which is disappointing

 

[bendm]

I've gone through a ton of scenarios and the 5 seed really seems to be the most likely scenario, which is disappointing

if things go as projected we get the 7 seed so isnt that the most likely scenario?

 

[navery12]

if things go as projected we get the 7 seed so isnt that the most likely scenario?

We're beating Houston tomorrow so no

 

[auror]

Ran through the scenarios using KenPom probability. These are all the scenarios where we get the 6th and Tulsa gets the 3 (assuming Tulsa and Cincy's games go as Sagarin predicted). If I did the math right (and KenPom is accurate) it's a 24% chance of happening.

Memphis absolutely has to lose to Houston. That's the only thing that is mandatory. Thankfully that's the most reliable result of all the games. There's 1 scenario where we lose to Tulane and get it and 1 scenario where we lose to Houston and get it anyways lol. Both of those happen when UCF beats SMU, but either SMU or UCF winning tonight gives us 4 scenarios. The most likely involves UCF winning, so we should probably root for that.

 

[auror]

This is for UConn #7 seed and Tulsa the #2 seed.

There are actually more scenarios than the other path, but each is a lot less likely. This is mostly because this path requires both Memphis AND UConn to win against Houston. Since the other path requires the opposite for Memphis, these became pretty nice alternatives in case Memphis does pull off the upset as long as we still won (we'd play Tulsa about 27% of the time in that case)..

So together, the combined UConn vs. Tulsa odds are 29% chance.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Is Tulsa really the BEST AAC team or the MOST AAC team?

 

[Slasher]

Is Tulsa really the BEST AAC team or the MOST AAC team?

Aresco took care of them. Check out the conference SOS:

They've played the easiest AAC schedule.

 

[auror]

With UCF beating SMU, our odds have changed a bit.

Our chances for each seed...
Before:

5 seed	6.85%
6 seed	26.84%
7 seed	66.31%

After:

5 seed	13.43%
6 seed	27.01%
7 seed	59.56%

For Tulsa...
Before:

Just 6 v 3 matchups	24.19%
Just 7 vs 2 matchups	4.69%
Sum of Tulsa matchups	28.88%

After:

Just 6 v 3 matchups	23.09%
Just 7 vs 2 matchups	3.39%
Sum of Tulsa matchups	26.48%

So chances for the 5 seed doubled, which lowered our odds of seeing Tulsa since they cannot get down to 4th.

 

[tzznandrew]

When is the last time a Big 10 team cut down the nets? They are typically overrated

I mean, the last seven years they've had:

2019: MSU, final four
2018: Michigan, runner up
2015: Wisconsin, runner up
2015: MSU, final four
2014: Wisconsin, final four
2013: Michigan, runner up

No title, but that seems arbitrary when they've had three teams competing for the title and 3 more in the final weekend.

Winning a title is hard, and the big 10 has proven itself a good league.