Can Paige and Azzi both average 20ppg?

[ABCDFE]

This is an eye opening post! If someone had tried to tell me that Stewie didn't average 20 points in any of her UConn seasons, I would have to think that they were not being truthful. Same the others you mentioned.
Based upon UConn history, I guess my post about Paige, Azzi and Sarah averaging 20 points seems ludicrous.

Most of Stewies games they were blowing out opponents and sat entire fourth quarters. So we need some context to this topic.

 

[Centerstream]

Most of Stewies games they were blowing out opponents and sat entire fourth quarters. So we need some context to this topic.

My thought was that UConn was blowing out opponents in part because of Stewie's scoring in the first three quarters or so. And also because of Morgan, Moriah, Kia, Gabby, Naphessa, Katie Lou, etc. but mostly Stewie.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Probably not, judging from history. And by history &0, it is with reference to the TASSK years that intersects with Shea and Svet (1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01):

• By regular season’s end, Geno will have a solid 10-player Noah’s Ark rotation as the 2nd year of TASSK consisting of 9 players who had been starters at some point in their (short) UConn careers + Morgan (whom Geno really likes);
• Aside: To those who say Dawn is pioneering balanced Superteam play, for the first three years of TASSK, Geno was already doing that; he won one championship from 1998-2001, with injuries derailing the other two years.

There are metrics &2 that can better illustrate the Big 3’s impact without pegging it to a near impossible 60-point Big 3 season average standard;

• Besides scoring, the Big 3 (who have not meaningfully played together in the previous 16 games) will force defenses to work extra hard and are floor spacers;
• Early season defensive schemes on Paige and Sarah, while the four other incomers and four sophomores were being developed &1 by Geno, will not now work;
• With a fully functioning Big 3 + Aubrey and seasoned-enough youngsters, the focus on the Big 3 will let the seasoned youngsters shine as by-game designated hitters;
• yes, this means &1 hitting the good open shots missed in the early season, at a much faster pace, unleashing the press after each made shot, etc.

&0 History is not always prologue. The Back2Sports guy goes through Paige’s and Azzi’s prior “ships-passing-through-the-night” joint play as a prologue to this season. He also projects from the 16-game performance of Kaitlyn+KK (vs Nika) as prologue to the rest of the season. I don’t agree with his takes on either one.

&1 Q is an illustrative case. Finally focusing on what she can contribute to Geno’s schemes — better rebounding, defending the opponent’s hottest player, being connected on offense/ defense (along the lines of a long line of Geno players from Ashley Battle, Kalana Greene, Barbara Turner, Kelly Farris, … , Aubrey Griffin and perhaps Bianca Quinones) — Geno rewards Q with non-garbage time minutes;

• Q is currently on a shooting slump as she now grapples with Geno’s very high team play bar;
• Similar situation was faced by the available players at the start of the year not named Paige or Sarah —relative newbies in new situations with the departure of Nika and Aaliyah.

&2 The Hollinger Assist Ratio (Assists / Offensive Possessions ending in a player’s actions = A / PAct) is one such metric;

• Turnover Percentage (TO / PAct) is another;
• One can bootleg a stat for offensive contribution as (FGM + A) / PAct;
• Since UConn is among the nation’s best in scoring efficiency, Assists, TOs, it is probably near the very top for team average for the above ratios;
• These and other metrics will show that this year’s UConn team is becoming a vintage UConn team a la TASSK years.

 

[Bone Dog]

Probably not, judging from history. And by history &0, it is with reference to the TASSK years that intersects with Shea and Svet (1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01):

• By regular season’s end, Geno will have a solid 10-player Noah’s Ark rotation as the 2nd year of TASSK consisting of 9 players who had been starters at some point in their (short) UConn careers + Morgan (whom Geno really likes);
• Aside: To those who say Dawn is pioneering balanced Superteam play, for the first three years of TASSK, Geno was already doing that; he won one championship from 1998-2001, with injuries derailing the other two years.

There are metrics &2 that can better illustrate the Big 3’s impact without pegging it to a near impossible 60-point Big 3 season average standard;

• Besides scoring, the Big 3 (who have not meaningfully played together in the previous 16 games) will force defenses to work extra hard and are floor spacers;
• Early season defensive schemes on Paige and Sarah, while the four other incomers and four sophomores were being developed &1 by Geno, will not now work;
• With a fully functioning Big 3 + Aubrey and seasoned-enough youngsters, the focus on the Big 3 will let the seasoned youngsters shine as by-game designated hitters;
• yes, this means &1 hitting the good open shots missed in the early season, at a much faster pace, unleashing the press after each made shot, etc.

&0 History is not always prologue. The Back2Sports guy goes through Paige’s and Azzi’s prior “ships-passing-through-the-night” joint play as a prologue to this season. He also projects from the 16-game performance of Kaitlyn+KK (vs Nika) as prologue to the rest of the season. I don’t agree with his takes on either one.

&1 Q is an illustrative case. Finally focusing on what she can contribute to Geno’s schemes — better rebounding, defending the opponent’s hottest player, being connected on offense/ defense (along the lines of a long line of Geno players from Ashley Battle, Kalana Greene, Barbara Turner, Kelly Farris, … , Aubrey Griffin and perhaps Bianca Quinones) — Geno rewards Q with non-garbage time minutes;

• Q is currently on a shooting slump as she now grapples with Geno’s very high team play bar;
• Similar situation was faced by the available players at the start of the year not named Paige or Sarah —relative newbies in new situations with the departure of Nika and Aaliyah.

&2 The Hollinger Assist Ratio (Assists / Offensive Possessions ending in a player’s actions = A / PAct) is one such metric;

• Turnover Percentage (TO / PAct) is another;
• One can bootleg a stat for offensive contribution as (FGM + A) / PAct;
• Since UConn is among the nation’s best in scoring efficiency, Assists, TOs, it is probably near the very top for team average for the above ratios;
• These and other metrics will show that this year’s UConn team is becoming a vintage UConn team a la TASSK years.

I like your optimism, even if the stats invoked in &2 are still obscure to me. And I especially like your suggestion about Q. Like many of us, I thought she had lost her way. I’d noticed that she’s been hawking rebounds much more aggressively than last season, but I didn’t weigh it appropriately. But you have clearly paid more attention than I had and seen her season so far not as a backwards slide but as a diagonal improvement. She’s changing her game to meet Geno’s expectations. Her offense has suffered a bit, but if you’re right, it will bounce back. Go Q!

 

[Blueballer]

3 scorers is ideal. Paige, Azzi and Sarah can fill those roles. Without much scoring from the centers, those 3 will have to be "on" for us to get where we need to be.

 

[Happydad745]

It is doubtful that both Paige and Azzi could average 20 points per game with Sarah on the floor.....

 

[The CDR-Ret]

This is an eye opening post! If someone had tried to tell me that Stewie didn't average 20 points in any of her UConn seasons, I would have to think that they were not being truthful. Same the others you mentioned.
Based upon UConn history, I guess my post about Paige, Azzi and Sarah averaging 20 points seems ludicrous.

Reminds me of the question asked about Michael Jordan prior to the NBA finals where he was about to earn his 4th NBA Championship [when he was averaging >35 pts/game in the playoffs]: "How do you keep Michael Jordan under 16 points per game?"

Answer: Have him play for Dean Smith!

I'm thinking that 2 of 3 of them [Azzi, PB, & Sarah] would score over 20 pts each game they are in for 28 - 32 mins. The issue will be that they will average 24 - 26 minutes [only exceptions are Tennessee and USCarolina] until the BE Tournament finals where they each will have ~30 mins, which {~30 mins/game} will continue in the NCAAs.

Because of the reduced mins played over the next 12 games, I predict that only one or two of the "Big 3" will score in the 20's until the BE finals.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

View attachment 106228
View attachment 106229

The same year that Lou & Pheesa each averaged 20+ pts per game, Gabby had 100 steals, but that was "only" T-8th, but Sales had exceeded 100 three times - very impressive.

 

[Alydar]

If we want #12, the answer to can all 3 score 20 better be yes.

The only number that matters is the total those 3 get in any game. If all 3 are hot they could get 80 but in many games one will be missing from 3. If they can score 50 between them and the rest (5) can get 30 between them we would win because of our defense.

I don't remember the season ( 2014-2016?) but at one point in February I noticed that every starter had had a 30 pt game during the season. It's the proven scoring potential that matters. Between Bueckers, Fudd and Strong Geno has 3 players who can put up 30+. That may not guarantee anything but it is a piece of the puzzle.

 

[bballnut90]

It's not happening this year--Geno is pulling starters earlier in Big East play and there's only 1 game of note left on the schedule (at South Carolina).

I think a better target or indicator of success is to have 2 of Strong/Bueckers/Fudd score close to 20 on a given night, or combine for 40. Those are the 3 main offensive weapons UCONN has, and none of them are likely to be gunners who jack up bad shots, so if someone is off, the other two + supporting cast can pick up the slack.

 

[meyers7]

I am not going to watch the video, but I have this question: why isn't Sarah included in the question? She has proven that she can shoot the 3, mid range and in the lane.
If all three played 30 minutes a game, there’s no reason why we couldn't have 3 averaging 20+ points. Right?

Wrong, there are lot's of reasons why we couldn't have 3 averaging 20+ points. Many are suggested throughout this thead. Biggest of course is opportunity. All 3 would need to average 30+ minutes a game. Hopefully that won't happen.

Now it can happen for a game here and there. Maybe? But averaging? over the season? Nah, no way. It would be a big struggle to get 2. Especially with the team we have. There have only been 10 times in UCONN history that a player has averaged 20 or more in a season. BUT there was one instance of 2 players in the same season, Samuelson and Collier in 16/17. (and both averaged 30+ minutes a game) (just for clarity, those 10 times were, Bascom (3 times), Collier (2), Bueckers (2), Sales, Moore and Samuelson)

And when (if) Griffin gets back, that will take more opportunity away from the 3.

I suppose if we had a rash of injuries (even more than we've had) and Bueckers, Fudd and Strong had to play like 35 minutes a game, then sure maybe they all could average 20+ points a game....going forward. But still not sure that would average out for the season. But I would much rather not see that happen.

 

[Plebe]

View attachment 106228
View attachment 106229

Something jumps off the page to me when I look at those records for single-season scoring:

There have been 9 seasons when a UConn player averaged 20 ppg or more. What else do all those seasons have in common?

 

[OldSchooler]

This is an eye opening post! If someone had tried to tell me that Stewie didn't average 20 points in any of her UConn seasons, I would have to think that they were not being truthful. Same the others you mentioned.
Based upon UConn history, I guess my post about Paige, Azzi and Sarah averaging 20 points seems ludicrous.

For many years, now, Geno has assiduously ignored personal stats in a game that is not close. (That, I think, is CD's bailiwick.) How many double-doubles, and even triple-doubles, have been narrowly missed because he sat that player in the 4th Q of a runaway? How many other coaches do that consistently? It may end up diminishing that player's credentials for national honors, but that's just not his game, and I've never seen or heard of any of his players grumbling about it.

 

[my2cents]

This is UConn. We don't care about points. We care about WINS and Championships.

 

[meyers7]

This is UConn. We don't care about points. We care about WINS and Championships.

Tell that to Geno and Nykesha.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

The only number that matters is the total those 3 get in any game. If all 3 are hot they could get 80 but in many games one will be missing from 3. If they can score 50 between them and the rest (5) can get 30 between them we would win because of our defense.

I don't remember the season ( 2014-2016?) but at one point in February I noticed that every starter had had a 30 pt game during the season. It's the proven scoring potential that matters. Between Bueckers, Fudd and Strong Geno has 3 players who can put up 30+. That may not guarantee anything but it is a piece of the puzzle.

Keep your eye on the rest 5) and how many times they aggregate 30. And note the minutes of each. We haven't had much consistency and the NCAAs are not the place to find it.