Can Paige and Azzi both average 20ppg?

[Bone Dog]

This is that same guy some of us like and others hate. Ignore the clickbait title. The interesting question comes up at the 3:30 mark and he raises an good point about the current lineup. Can Paige and Azzi each average 20ppg when they're both in the lineup? He shows a bunch of stats that I don’t really follow. But it is worth considering whether our usual expectations about the Paige & Azzi show may be unrealistic.

We all might well expect to see our Big 3 combine for 60pts every night. How could we not? After all, we’ve waited so long to see the Paige & Azzi show and this may have ratcheted up our expectations too high. Any one of Paige Azzi and Sarah is clearly capable of scoring 30pts if the team needs them to. But as a matter of averages across a whole season, it may not be desirable. NCs haven’t tended to be won that way, at least not at Storrs.

But can’t three players average a combined 60pts? Even this may not be desirable merely from a shot-attempt distribution point of view. Do we want 3 players to take 55-60 shots per game? That would be nearly all the shots. Also, even our highest scoring teams, like 2014-15 which averaged 89ppg, didn’t have this kind of scoring distribution. On that team, the starting 5 averaged ~70ppg and the next three off the bench averaged close to 18ppg. This is the sort of distribution Geno seems to be after, and the one that is the most difficult to defend against. And that team averaged a little less than 65 shots per game. This year, the team is averaging 63 shots per game.

This is just stuff to think about. What is the optimum scoring and shot-taking distribution going forward for this team?

 

[packwrap]

It's hard to tell this year with our kinder gentler Geno.

Against overmatched teams he has been taking the air out of the ball by limiting fast break, working shot clock and playing our deep competent line up.

He does make sure Paige and Sarah kinda get their numbers, but they usually are out now in 4th qtr.

Last night LSU had Johnson, Morrow and Williams all get 20+ in a close 40 minute game vs Vanderbilt. So it's doable, but unlikely with the type of games we have been in.

 

[AzzisBraids]

I think under a Nika Muhl this could have been achievable, she just had a knack for finding others. I think it's possible under the right circumstances but as long as both can achieve 20 plus points when the team needs it, we should be in good standing.

 

[Rowdy831]

To average 20 points players the caliber of Paige and Azzi would need no more than 15 shots. They both make a few threes a game and get a few free throws and both are accurate shooters when they aren't racing the end of the shot clock. To yes I think they could average 20 points each and even Sarah could be close to that number.

The real question though is will they need to get those numbers to win and I think the answer to that is kind of. I don't think they will all get 20 every night but they may need to average that or close to that to reach the winners circle in the end. The real question to me is will Geno highlight his players to achieve such a thing and I don't think he will. When the games are against good teams he will shorten his bench and all three will most likely get their numbers but I don't see it on a nightly basis in a very weak conference.

 

[Centerstream]

I am not going to watch the video, but I have this question: why isn't Sarah included in the question? She has proven that she can shoot the 3, mid range and in the lane.
If all three played 30 minutes a game, there’s no reason why we couldn't have 3 averaging 20+ points. Right?

 

[Bone Dog]

If all three played 30 minutes a game, there’s no reason why we couldn't have 3 averaging 20+ points. Right?

And yet, I don’t think we ever have.

 

[Plebe]

It depends on whether you mean "can" as in "is this theoretically possible?" or as in "is there any substantial likelihood this will materialize?" If you want a "yes" answer, go with the former.

 

[darrell]

I am not going to watch the video, but I have this question: why isn't Sarah included in the question? She has proven that she can shoot the 3, mid range and in the lane.
If all three played 30 minutes a game, there’s no reason why we couldn't have 3 averaging 20+ points. Right?

The problem is that neither of those 3 are selfish enough (probably to the team’s detriment at times) to take more shots than they already are.

Paige is 84th in the country for FGA/game, Sarah is 163rd. For note: Hidalgo is 6th, Juju is 7th.

 

[Rb335]

What’s more important is, will Paige, Azzi and Sarah score 20 each in the games that matter most this season? When these three are clicking, it takes the offensive pressure off of the rest our our younger players / bench.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

If we want #12, the answer to can all 3 score 20 better be yes.

 

[ABCDFE]

Can they? Yes they can. Will they? I think that is probably a No.

Paige is closer to 20 than the other two. When Paige gets back I believe her average may come down slightly and Azzi will rise significantly from where it is now. My prediction is 19ppg for Paige, 18ppg for Sarah and 16ppg for Azzi.

My bigger concern is not about these three (if fully healthy) but how consistent of an offense from the other starters and bench players 6-8.

 

[Tonyc]

In big games you gonna want Paige Azzi and Sarah taking most of the shots. All 3 are unselfish and will be looking for their team mates. Over the past few games we have seen everybody else being a threat to score and looking for their shot, which is a big help as our Big 3 will demand alot of attention with the possibility of leaving somebody open. As Sarah Jana and Ice develop our inside game will become more dependable to score. Will we be ready in 2 weeks....that would be nice, but just the idea of having a healthy Paige Azzi and Sarah makes me happy.

 

[Bills Fan]

I am not going back to all the stats per game info, but didn't we have 3 20+ scorers in one game this year? And it seems that a couple of that group had well over 20 pts.

 

[cometjo]

In at least one year both Pheesa and KLS averaged 20 ppg.

 

[Dove]

I just hope Azzi plays 20 games.

 

[Stagnant]

No, definitely not. We struggle to get them enough shots sometimes, they aren’t selfish enough, and they don’t play enough minutes.

 

[Bigboote]

I think Collier and Samuelson are the only UConn players to have averaged 20 in the same season. I think it's possible that if Paige and Azzi had had three full injury-free seasons together, it might have happened.

The list of UConn players who never averaged 20 ppg in a season is more impressive than those who have. Those who have: Kerry Bascom 3x, Nykesha Sales, Maya Moore, Napheesa Collier 2x, Katie Lou Samuelson, Paige Bueckers 2x. Among those who have not: Diana Taurasi, Tina Charles, Breanna Stewart, Svetlana Abrosimova, Rebecca Lobo and every other great UConn player except for those six mentioned in the previous sentence.

 

[Centerstream]

I think Collier and Samuelson are the only UConn players to have averaged 20 in the same season. I think it's possible that if Paige and Azzi had had three full injury-free seasons together, it might have happened.

The list of UConn players who never averaged 20 ppg in a season is more impressive than those who have. Those who have: Kerry Bascom 3x, Nykesha Sales, Maya Moore, Napheesa Collier 2x, Katie Lou Samuelson, Paige Bueckers 2x. Among those who have not: Diana Taurasi, Tina Charles, Breanna Stewart, Svetlana Abrosimova, Rebecca Lobo and every other great UConn player except for those six mentioned in the previous sentence.

This is an eye opening post! If someone had tried to tell me that Stewie didn't average 20 points in any of her UConn seasons, I would have to think that they were not being truthful. Same with the others you mentioned.
Based upon UConn history, I guess my post about Paige, Azzi and Sarah averaging 20 points seems ludicrous.

 

[Huskee11]

As sophomores Napheesa and Katie Lou averaged 20.4 and 20.2 points per game respectively. That was the 2016-7 team that went 36-1, losing to Mississippi State in the Final Four.

They were in the very weak AAC but their out of conference victories included South Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, LSU, Texas, DePaul, Baylor, Maryland (the famous barf bucket game), Syracuse, UCLA and Oregon.

Napheesa and KLS both played and started all 37 games and both averaged over 30 minutes per game. The team as a whole averaged over 87 points per game while the current team averages just under 79.

Five team members had over 100 assists and the team as a whole had a whopping 863. The team shooting percentage was 52.7% including over 40% from three. Naphessa shot an incredible 67.8% from the field. Yikes.

That was a fun team. KLS, Napheesa, Kia Nurse, Gabby and Saniya Chong started, with Crystal and Natalie Butler off the bench. Small and not deep, but very, very talented.

I don't think any other UConn duo has ever done that. It is very hard to do and they just barely did it.

 

[HuskyNan]

In at least one year both Pheesa and KLS averaged 20 ppg.

One season

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[Bone Dog]

View attachment 106228
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Paige has since surpassed Maya’s career scoring average with 19.8ppg

 

[Charliebball]

In certain games yes........for the season nope........

 

[Cuango]

Plebe has the right of it! Yes, they are individually and collectively good enough to average those numbers! Could it or would it actually happen? Never! The entire game plan would have to revolve around that goal and that of course, is not (nor should it) going to happen. I do think it is possible that we could see a game where all three of them score in the 20s.

 

[BBallF]

The problem is that neither of those 3 are selfish enough (probably to the team’s detriment at times) to take more shots than they already are.

Paige is 84th in the country for FGA/game, Sarah is 163rd. For note: Hidalgo is 6th, Juju is 7th.

Good stats. That is exactly the problem in my view. Paige, Azzi and Sarah should be taking most and I mean really most of the shots when we get into March.

 

[DEpup]

For me, I doubt it. And I have a couple reasons.

1. Sarah - she's also scoring at a good clip
2. Team isn't generating enough free throws
3. Too many good healthy players at the moment where you get everybody eats games
4. Azzi would need to really focus in on a KLS type game where she is getting significant 3s per game at high percent. Like 5+ a game to raise the points per attempt. Not likely because her game is more diverse

 

[ABCDFE]

This is an eye opening post! If someone had tried to tell me that Stewie didn't average 20 points in any of her UConn seasons, I would have to think that they were not being truthful. Same the others you mentioned.
Based upon UConn history, I guess my post about Paige, Azzi and Sarah averaging 20 points seems ludicrous.

Most of Stewies games they were blowing out opponents and sat entire fourth quarters. So we need some context to this topic.

 

[Centerstream]

Most of Stewies games they were blowing out opponents and sat entire fourth quarters. So we need some context to this topic.

My thought was that UConn was blowing out opponents in part because of Stewie's scoring in the first three quarters or so. And also because of Morgan, Moriah, Kia, Gabby, Naphessa, Katie Lou, etc. but mostly Stewie.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Probably not, judging from history. And by history &0, it is with reference to the TASSK years that intersects with Shea and Svet (1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01):

• By regular season’s end, Geno will have a solid 10-player Noah’s Ark rotation as the 2nd year of TASSK consisting of 9 players who had been starters at some point in their (short) UConn careers + Morgan (whom Geno really likes);
• Aside: To those who say Dawn is pioneering balanced Superteam play, for the first three years of TASSK, Geno was already doing that; he won one championship from 1998-2001, with injuries derailing the other two years.

There are metrics &2 that can better illustrate the Big 3’s impact without pegging it to a near impossible 60-point Big 3 season average standard;

• Besides scoring, the Big 3 (who have not meaningfully played together in the previous 16 games) will force defenses to work extra hard and are floor spacers;
• Early season defensive schemes on Paige and Sarah, while the four other incomers and four sophomores were being developed &1 by Geno, will not now work;
• With a fully functioning Big 3 + Aubrey and seasoned-enough youngsters, the focus on the Big 3 will let the seasoned youngsters shine as by-game designated hitters;
• yes, this means &1 hitting the good open shots missed in the early season, at a much faster pace, unleashing the press after each made shot, etc.

&0 History is not always prologue. The Back2Sports guy goes through Paige’s and Azzi’s prior “ships-passing-through-the-night” joint play as a prologue to this season. He also projects from the 16-game performance of Kaitlyn+KK (vs Nika) as prologue to the rest of the season. I don’t agree with his takes on either one.

&1 Q is an illustrative case. Finally focusing on what she can contribute to Geno’s schemes — better rebounding, defending the opponent’s hottest player, being connected on offense/ defense (along the lines of a long line of Geno players from Ashley Battle, Kalana Greene, Barbara Turner, Kelly Farris, … , Aubrey Griffin and perhaps Bianca Quinones) — Geno rewards Q with non-garbage time minutes;

• Q is currently on a shooting slump as she now grapples with Geno’s very high team play bar;
• Similar situation was faced by the available players at the start of the year not named Paige or Sarah —relative newbies in new situations with the departure of Nika and Aaliyah.

&2 The Hollinger Assist Ratio (Assists / Offensive Possessions ending in a player’s actions = A / PAct) is one such metric;

• Turnover Percentage (TO / PAct) is another;
• One can bootleg a stat for offensive contribution as (FGM + A) / PAct;
• Since UConn is among the nation’s best in scoring efficiency, Assists, TOs, it is probably near the very top for team average for the above ratios;
• These and other metrics will show that this year’s UConn team is becoming a vintage UConn team a la TASSK years.

 

[Bone Dog]

Probably not, judging from history. And by history &0, it is with reference to the TASSK years that intersects with Shea and Svet (1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01):

• By regular season’s end, Geno will have a solid 10-player Noah’s Ark rotation as the 2nd year of TASSK consisting of 9 players who had been starters at some point in their (short) UConn careers + Morgan (whom Geno really likes);
• Aside: To those who say Dawn is pioneering balanced Superteam play, for the first three years of TASSK, Geno was already doing that; he won one championship from 1998-2001, with injuries derailing the other two years.

There are metrics &2 that can better illustrate the Big 3’s impact without pegging it to a near impossible 60-point Big 3 season average standard;

• Besides scoring, the Big 3 (who have not meaningfully played together in the previous 16 games) will force defenses to work extra hard and are floor spacers;
• Early season defensive schemes on Paige and Sarah, while the four other incomers and four sophomores were being developed &1 by Geno, will not now work;
• With a fully functioning Big 3 + Aubrey and seasoned-enough youngsters, the focus on the Big 3 will let the seasoned youngsters shine as by-game designated hitters;
• yes, this means &1 hitting the good open shots missed in the early season, at a much faster pace, unleashing the press after each made shot, etc.

&0 History is not always prologue. The Back2Sports guy goes through Paige’s and Azzi’s prior “ships-passing-through-the-night” joint play as a prologue to this season. He also projects from the 16-game performance of Kaitlyn+KK (vs Nika) as prologue to the rest of the season. I don’t agree with his takes on either one.

&1 Q is an illustrative case. Finally focusing on what she can contribute to Geno’s schemes — better rebounding, defending the opponent’s hottest player, being connected on offense/ defense (along the lines of a long line of Geno players from Ashley Battle, Kalana Greene, Barbara Turner, Kelly Farris, … , Aubrey Griffin and perhaps Bianca Quinones) — Geno rewards Q with non-garbage time minutes;

• Q is currently on a shooting slump as she now grapples with Geno’s very high team play bar;
• Similar situation was faced by the available players at the start of the year not named Paige or Sarah —relative newbies in new situations with the departure of Nika and Aaliyah.

&2 The Hollinger Assist Ratio (Assists / Offensive Possessions ending in a player’s actions = A / PAct) is one such metric;

• Turnover Percentage (TO / PAct) is another;
• One can bootleg a stat for offensive contribution as (FGM + A) / PAct;
• Since UConn is among the nation’s best in scoring efficiency, Assists, TOs, it is probably near the very top for team average for the above ratios;
• These and other metrics will show that this year’s UConn team is becoming a vintage UConn team a la TASSK years.

I like your optimism, even if the stats invoked in &2 are still obscure to me. And I especially like your suggestion about Q. Like many of us, I thought she had lost her way. I’d noticed that she’s been hawking rebounds much more aggressively than last season, but I didn’t weigh it appropriately. But you have clearly paid more attention than I had and seen her season so far not as a backwards slide but as a diagonal improvement. She’s changing her game to meet Geno’s expectations. Her offense has suffered a bit, but if you’re right, it will bounce back. Go Q!