Can anyone take a meteorologist seriously anymore?

[boba]

Wow.
As a science worker I must admit the best part of my job is when I discover that I am wrong (or that someone else is wrong) because when you get to that point, you are making progress. Too often we just spend our time proving something we think is true is real and not some artifact of the data we are analyzing.
Weather in spring, in high latitudes, near continental boundaries, is well known and well understood to be especially difficult model and or predict. The number of inputs increases on logarithmic scale over very short periods. There is a great deal of energy in the lower latitudes that is capable of inserting a tremendous amount water vapor into the the mix. Then the arctic air masses are exceptionally unstable during March - April and cause the jet stream to behave in the same exceptionally erratic manner. It is simply beyond our capabilities to accurately predict how certain stimuli will insert themselves into the prevailing pattern.
There a reason that they use terms such as "NN percent chance" of whatever weather they are predicting, because the there is a statistically probability that something will (or will not) occur. And if you really want to feel good about "science," I can tell you with near 99% certainty that the majority of oncologists will admit that their accuracy rate is on par with meteorology and those that claim they are better are lying to you.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Long Island got record snow. So it isn't like the storm didn't show up - just "where" kept changing. And it snowed a ton - luckily it was warm enough that most of it melted when it hit the ground. Had it been 7-8 degrees cooler in NYC it would have been well over a foot, but it never cooled off so we have a bunch of slush.

But see, that is kind of Spartacus that these people should know about and take into account!

 

[Travelman6]

Can anyone take a meteorologist seriously anymore?

***Raises hand***

 

[Exit 4]

TV meteorologist in particular get swept up in the hype. Watching local and national tv news for weather information is one of the few real reasons to tune in these days. No one gets too excited when a weather man down plays a storm. The new producers, the station mgmt get caught up and the pressure is on to hype it up. Plus, our ever growing nanny state practically mandates meteorologist to err on the side of worst case.

Finally, if you read any of the weather nerd tweets and websites, they all said this last storm was iffy and would be severely impacted by the dry cold air high pressure system to the north which turns out - ate up a good part of the storm by absorbing the moisture.

 

[UconnMICK]

Back in the late 70's, my dad said... "I stopped listening to those people after we got 8 inches of party cloudy."

 

[Travelman6]

I'm ready to take it seriously again.
Mayte Carranco 19 de julio 2016 HD

 

[uconnfan68]

Long Island got record snow. So it isn't like the storm didn't show up - just "where" kept changing. And it snowed a ton - luckily it was warm enough that most of it melted when it hit the ground. Had it been 7-8 degrees cooler in NYC it would have been well over a foot, but it never cooled off so we have a bunch of slush.

The European model supposedly nailed the CT results. That’s the one I try to follow, but I think they charge $ for it. Occasionally hear local forecasters mention it, and I start listening.

 

[Exit 4]

The European model supposedly nailed the CT results. That’s the one I try to follow, but I think they charge $ for it. Occasionally hear local forecasters mention it, and I start listening.

If you have the patience, the NWS will talk about the euro model in their forecast discussion link which is generally updated every six hours, but more frequently during active weather.

 

[Tex-Lager93]

It’s like listening to Seth Greenberg predict basketball outcomes. Wrong, wrong, wrong, right, wrong...

 

[Tenspro2002]

The problem, as with any predictive science, is that there are uncertainties involved that are hard to convey to a lay audience.

People don't want to hear "there's a 80% chance of more than 2" of snow; a 40% of more than 6" of snow; and a 10% chance of more than 10" of snow". And, worse, TV news producers don't want meteorologists to say it. There are ratings/hype to worry about. There's also a "better to err on the side of caution" attitude, since there are worse consequences for failing to forecast a blizzard than for forecasting a blizzard and getting flurries.

 

[uconnfan68]

If you have the patience, the NWS will talk about the euro model in their forecast discussion link which is generally updated every six hours, but more frequently during active weather.

I tried googling for a site, found one, and it basically shutdown the next week. That’s why I surmised $ was involved. I will recheck NWS. Thanks

 

[Towney007]

The Weather Channel website copywriter has only one tone: total and complete panic and terror all the time. This is just my pass through today, but it got so bad that I started writing down their headlines so I could recap it in a gigantic tweet one day. Astonishing stuff..

 

[CTMike]

The Weather Channel website copywriter has only one tone: total and complete panic and terror all the time. This is just my pass through today, but it got so bad that I started writing down their headlines so I could recap it in a gigantic tweet one day. Astonishing stuff..

View attachment 29930

Good point. I can see how people feel misled by this kind of nonsense. Guess I just tuned it out years ago.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

The Weather Channel website copywriter has only one tone: total and complete panic and terror all the time. This is just my pass through today, but it got so bad that I started writing down their headlines so I could recap it in a gigantic tweet one day. Astonishing stuff..

View attachment 29930

Any time there’s a storm headed for the DC-Boston corridor: “50 million in path of sheer destruction”

 

[Danzz]

How can they keep talking to us like they know what the weather is going to be? Especially them there "extended forecasts"

The only time they're accurate is when they're standing outside and telling us "it's raining on me"

I think they're batting like 500 on forecasts just 24 hours out, maybe below 350 in March in CT (we'll call it spring training)



PS: any updates on Hurley?

Look I don't give a damn that the forecast was wrong. In fact I'm glad the forecast was wrong because I didn't have to pay my plow guy. What little snow we did have melted on my driveway and sidewalk. I hope they are wrong more in the future.

 

[BlueMAB]

I'm ready to take it seriously again.
Mayte Carranco 19 de julio 2016 HD

Gracias mi amigo.

 

[jdb50]

The local news has become a weather forecast. So they hype every event and always pump the next one even if it is 9 days away and never shows up. It really is a joke and they should be ashamed of themselves. Ch 30 with their infantile snowmonster baloney. Reporters out kicking an inch of slush around. These folks are becoming irrelevant.

 

[DAC17]

I totally get that the job is hard, and don't blame them for getting one wrong once in a while. What galls me is how the local channels have weather on all day any time there is any kind of weather. I guess it says a lot about the people who watch daytime TV.