California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[ctchamps]

No, my friend. The majority of those protesting are the ones who are not able to afford rent, put food on the table, or provide for their families. Those of us fortunate enough to still be working or to work from home (myself luckily) should be more open minded. A lot of people who still have jobs would feel differently if they were unable to provide for themselves or their families because their states want to stayed locked down until a vaccine comes along, all for a virus that effects mostly the elderly. We can still PROTECT the elderly and vulnerable while slowly getting people back to work. It's not a one variable issue.

I understand desperation and I'm in complete sympathy with those who are facing financial ruin. Explain to me why many of those protestors are not wearing masks even trying to socially distance? Because by appearances at the very least it appears to be more of a political statement than an economic statement.

 

[JimHurley]

I understand desperation and I'm in complete sympathy with those who are facing financial ruin. Explain to me why many of those protestors are not wearing masks even trying to socially distance? Because by appearances at the very least it appears to be more of a political statement than an economic statement.

It is probably both. Why protestors don't wear masks I don't know. They should. But think twice before determining that every protestor is making a political stand. A lot of these peoples' lives depend on getting back to work.

 

[ctchamps]

The curve has been flattened. The medical system is as far from overwhelmed as it gets. Hospitals are going bankrupt, nurses are getting laid off. This is because other procedures are being put off and people are scared to go to the doctor. I work in healthcare economics and I can tell you hospitals are reporting that there are FAR more available hospital beds than reported cases of the virus.

Not having enough tests is a problem, but testing is also overrated. Are we supposed to test every human every time they leave their house? Think about the number of tests we'd need to be considered sufficient. I guarantee that number of tests is not even a possibility.

You're hatching the chickens while the eggs are not yet laid. If there virus is zero, or there is herd immunity or a there is a vaccination or adequate medical treatment to the illness, then you don't need testing and contact tracing (the better option which countries like S. Korea and Germany are doing) or social isolation (the far worse option that poorly organized countries like USA must resort to).

The part of me that wants to see the economy moving along is in harmony with you and those facing economic hardships. The part of me in sympathy with our medical workers and those individuals getting severely sick and dying is in harmony with those advocating for a slower move to opening the economy.

NONE OF US should be in this situation to have to make such a drastic choice between two very important needs.

 

[superjohn]

You, @superjohn, @NJHusky and a couple of others are moving the goal posts by only talking about deaths and not discussing the intent of social isolation. The primary purpose is to flatten the curve of the disease and not overwhelm the medical system.

We are approaching the minimum requirements of PPE and ventilators but not there yet. We are even further behind with enough testing to do contact tracing.

You all seem to conveniently forget that a good number of people over 35 required hospitalization and intensive care. Certainly the majority of those people under 70 without pre existing conditions survived compared to that other group who are at a higher risk of dying. But that doesn't alleviate overwhelming our medical system.

We should all be upset with the vastly inadequate response to the outbreak. Not having enough tests is problem and the only reason we are debating economics over medical.

We've done that, it's why goalposts are being moved as I keep pointing out. Prtizker spent $80 million plus turning McCormick into a Covid hospital and vacant hospitals into Covid hospitals. They haven't seen a single covid patient and are being dismantled. A couple hospitals out here are pleading people to come into their half empty hospitals.

 

[ctchamps]

It is probably both. Why protestors don't wear masks I don't know. They should. But think twice before determining that every protestor is making a political stand. A lot of these peoples' lives depend on getting back to work.

I'm well aware that both are attending these rallies. I'm not throwing everyone under the bus. Not my style.

 

[JimHurley]

You're hatching the chickens while the eggs are not yet laid. If there virus is zero, or there is herd immunity or a there is a vaccination or adequate medical treatment to the illness, then you don't need testing and contact tracing (the better option which countries like S. Korea and Germany are doing) or social isolation (the far worse option that poorly organized countries like USA must resort to).

The part of me that wants to see the economy moving along is in harmony with you and those facing economic hardships. The part of me in sympathy with our medical workers and those individuals getting severely sick and dying is in harmony with those advocating for a slower move to opening the economy.

NONE OF US should be in this situation to have to make such a drastic choice between two very important needs.

Very fair. I'd argue the virus will never get to zero, there may never be herd immunity, and a vaccination might not even be effective. If that's the case, we just gonna stay locked down forever? I know the flu comparison is not a good one but we have a vaccine for that, it spikes every year, and people die every year. That's sadly the way life is sometimes. That doesn't mean the whole country needs to be on house arrest. The chances of a healthy individual under 55 dying from this virus is astonishingly low. It will happen, yes, but extremely unlikely. For those who aren't vulnerable, it's time to use some common sense and begin a slow return to normalcy.

 

[UCfor3]

It is probably both. Why protestors don't wear masks I don't know. They should. But think twice before determining that every protestor is making a political stand. A lot of these peoples' lives depend on getting back to work.

A lot of these peoples lives also depend on being protected from the virus as well. If many of them are not wearing masks during the protests, can we really expect these same people to act responsibly to protect themselves and more importantly other people when they are allowed to return to work? I have sympathy for them but they need to be smarter, respect the virus and other people around them. Being part of the problem is going to make it harder for them to get what they want.

 

[ctchamps]

We've done that, it's why goalposts are being moved as I keep pointing out. Prtizker spent $80 million plus turning McCormick into a Covid hospital and vacant hospitals into Covid hospitals. They haven't seen a single covid patient and are being dismantled. A couple hospitals out here are pleading people to come into their half empty hospitals.

Yes I know. Social isolation worked. Let's reexamine history. What do you think was the original number of infected individuals that were roaming around the USA prior to the people in this country volunteering or being mandated to socially isolating? Would that number be larger than currently exists?

Certainly we have some herd immunity which is something that didn't exist back in February or March. Is that herd immunity sufficient to avoid an even larger outbreak then the original? And if not, what will the reaction of the majority of Americans be to a second or third larger outbreak if they overwhelm hospitals in many areas of the country like NYC?

 

[navery12]

The one thing I don't understand is how many people are just willing to accept that people will have to make a choice between working to afford rent and putting themselves at risk of sickness/death. Obviously we're not going to shut down and stay socially isolated forever and anyone claiming that is being disingenuous. But that we're 2 months in and already at the point of having to open up too early is a bad sign

 

[NJHusky]

You, @superjohn, @NJHusky and a couple of others are moving the goal posts by only talking about deaths and not discussing the intent of social isolation. The primary purpose is to flatten the curve of the disease and not overwhelm the medical system.

We are approaching the minimum requirements of PPE and ventilators but not there yet. We are even further behind with enough testing to do contact tracing.

EXACTLY....but it's not me that's moving the goalpost. It's you. Seems like the new goal is zero covid before reopen. That's not realistic unless you want a total shutdown for another year.

The goal was to flatten the curve...and it has been flattened. NYC sent the hospital ship away and the Javits center hospital is closing because it's not needed. Didn't NYC ship out ventilators because they weren't needed? Aren't we now sending ventilators to other countries because we don't need them?

My nephew is an oncologist in NJ and he had to help out in the hospital for a few weeks...when they were 95% Covid cases. He's now back to his regular practice because there are more NON-Covid patients in the hospital than covid, and they have excess ICU capacity.

 

[JimHurley]

A lot of these peoples lives also depend on being protected from the virus as well. If many of them are not wearing masks during the protests, can we really expect these same people to act responsibly to protect themselves and more imortantly other people when they are allowed to return to work? I have sympathy for them but they need to be smarter, respect the virus and other people around them. Being part of the problem is going to make it harder for them to get what they want.

I'm assuming that those protesting are NOT those who are vulnerable to dying from the virus. If you're over the age of 55 and/or have medical issues, and you're out protesting without a mask, well I don't what to say to those people. But the reality is those who are under 55 without medical issues are extremely, extremely unlikely to die of this. A large number won't even be symptomatic. That's no excuse to go out acting like a reckless fool, but for the vast majority of the population the risk of death is very low. It's those people who are becoming the most restless.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

That's all fine and good about the reasoning for making the decision this early, but it doesn't address the fact that there is no reasonable logic for even making the decision at all.

It's like defending a parent for the thoughtful way they went about telling their child they were not allowed to play sports, and ignoring the fact that the parent decided the kid couldn't play sports for "safety reasons" bc they stubbed their big toe during warm ups at the first practice.

"no reasonable logic"

"stubbed their big toe during warm ups at the first practice"

Both strike me as more extreme and exaggerated phrasing, either for heightened effect, or because you can't or won't stack things up side-by-side in a calm fashion for reasonable analysis. Doing the latter would be more helpful toward building agreement among people who do not initially see things the same way.

Again, I can't tell if you are right or wrong, much as I might like to, but I can make a pretty reasonable guess about how you feel, even without you languaging things in terms of emotions.

 

[NJHusky]

then you don't need testing and contact tracing (the better option which countries like S. Korea and Germany are doing) or social isolation (the far worse option that poorly organized countries like USA must resort to).

NONE OF US should be in this situation to have to make such a drastic choice between two very important needs.

What are you talking about? I spoke to friends in Germany last month and they were on lockdown...and this is in a small town not Frankfurt!

No one should be born poor or with other issues either....the world was dealt a hand by China and we are dealing with it as best as possible.

 

[superjohn]

Yes I know. Social isolation worked. Let's reexamine history. What do you think was the original number of infected individuals that were roaming around the USA prior to the people in this country volunteering or being mandated to socially isolating? Would that number be larger than currently exists?

Certainly we have some herd immunity which is something that didn't exist back in February or March. Is that herd immunity sufficient to avoid an even larger outbreak then the original? And if not, what will the reaction of the majority of Americans be to a second or third larger outbreak if they overwhelm hospitals in many areas of the country like NYC?

I've said since the beginning I think we've gone about this all wrong. I wanted an approach like Dr. Katz has been advocating. We should have done a real shutdown, like nobody leaving their homes for anything for a few weeks except for the truly essential. From there a staggered reopening with the young population and then we go from there, employing something along the lines of what Sweden has done. Sweden's mistake is the same as ours, they haven't protected people in nursing homes.

I think what we've done pretty much ensures a second or third wave.

 

[JimHurley]

The one thing I don't understand is how many people are just willing to accept that people will have to make a choice between working to afford rent and putting themselves at risk of sickness/death. Obviously we're not going to shut down and stay socially isolated forever and anyone claiming that is being disingenuous. But that we're 2 months in and already at the point of having to open up too early is a bad sign

You're right but the reality is that the vast majority are not at risk of sickness/death. Those who are should not have to choose, correct. The virus has between a 0.4-0.9% death rate, with the average age of death being higher than the average life expectancy. That population should be protected at all costs. But for those under 50, the virus has a less than 0.1% death rate. And that is what is frustrating people. The fact that a virus effecting mainly the elderly, who are already prone to illness, is shutting down the country. Now for me, my grandparents live with me so I am not going anywhere other than the grocery store. I know my actions could take their lives, and I'm taking as much caution as possible to avoid that. But not everyone is in my position...

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

EXACTLY....but it's not me that's moving the goalpost. It's you. Seems like the new goal is zero covid before reopen. That's not realistic unless you want a total shutdown for another year.

The goal was to flatten the curve...and it has been flattened. NYC sent the hospital ship away and the Javits center hospital is closing because it's not needed. Didn't NYC ship out ventilators because they weren't needed? Aren't we now sending ventilators to other countries because we don't need them?

My nephew is an oncologist in NJ and he had to help out in the hospital for a few weeks...when they were 95% Covid cases. He's now back to his regular practice because there are more NON-Covid patients in the hospital than covid, and they have excess ICU capacity.

That's a favorable trending, and a helpful anecdotal reporting.

I've yet to see, hear, read, or encounter someone credibly mounting a strong argument for "zero Covid." Is that really a thing, or simply a source of upset borne of impatience, frustration, and/or unsupported speculation. Please direct me to where you are seeing or hearing this, so that I can feel better informed.

 

[superjohn]

The one thing I don't understand is how many people are just willing to accept that people will have to make a choice between working to afford rent and putting themselves at risk of sickness/death. Obviously we're not going to shut down and stay socially isolated forever and anyone claiming that is being disingenuous. But that we're 2 months in and already at the point of having to open up too early is a bad sign

California and Illinois are hinting at 5-6 month shutdowns, it keeps getting longer. I have friends who are losing everything they've worked for.

 

[UCfor3]

I'm assuming that those protesting are NOT those who are vulnerable to dying from the virus. If you're over the age of 55 and/or have medical issues, and you're out protesting without a mask, well I don't what to say to those people. But the reality is those who are under 55 without medical issues are extremely, extremely unlikely to die of this. A large number won't even be symptomatic. That's no excuse to go out acting like a reckless fool, but for the vast majority of the population the risk of death is very low. It's those people who are becoming the most restless.

They might be unlikely to die from it but they may still give it to countless people who are far more likely to die from it. Their cavalier attitude toward other people is irresponsible. People with health issues can't stay home forever either. They need to provide for their families too. Sadly we can't count on some of these people to do their part to keep others safe. Also, just because you don't die doesn't mean you are forever aok. There have been several reports of people potentially having lasting effects or lung damage in some people. So little is known about this virus in the long term because it is novel.

 

[JimHurley]

That's a favorable trending, and a helpful anecdotal reporting.

I've yet to see, hear, read, or encounter someone credibly mounting a strong argument for "zero Covid." Is that really a thing, or simply a source of upset borne of impatience, frustration, and/or unsupported speculation. Please direct me to where you are seeing or hearing this, so that I can feel better informed.

Illinois governor has said they need to eradicate the virus before reopening. California governor has implied they will need a vaccine.

 

[NJHusky]

That's a favorable trending, and a helpful anecdotal reporting.

What is favorable anecdotal reporting...that we have an oversupply of hospital space? It's not anecdotal...its fact...how much did Chicago spend on UNUSED hospital space? providing additional factual info is NOT an anecdote

 

[ctchamps]

Very fair. I'd argue the virus will never get to zero, there may never be herd immunity, and a vaccination might not even be effective. If that's the case, we just gonna stay locked down forever? I know the flu comparison is not a good one but we have a vaccine for that, it spikes every year, and people die every year. That's sadly the way life is sometimes. That doesn't mean the whole country needs to be on house arrest. The chances of a healthy individual under 55 dying from this virus is astonishingly low. It will happen, yes, but extremely unlikely. For those who aren't vulnerable, it's time to use some common sense and begin a slow return to normalcy.

Again dying is only a part of the issue. A significant number of people under 55 and older than 35 were hospitalized and required intensive care.

So we just don't debate between economics and medical I'm going to throw in some information that doesn't alter the economic and medical predicament we currently are under but I haven't noticed mentioned elsewhere.

Medical:

Remdesivir is just the start for medical treatment of the virus. EIDD 2801 is another nucleoside analog that is showing potential and can be made in a pill form allowing for a much less expensive and quicker roll out for treatment. I expect over the next six months to a year an announcement that a medical treatment to alleviate the disease to be forthcoming. And a vaccination probably won't be far behind.

Promising Treatment

There are several anti inflammatory studies being done to inhibit or decrease the severe cascading response to the infection.

Economic:

For all the debate in this forum, the reporting in the news or the statements made by politicians the most salient point is how will Americans react to day to day situations. This article shows that people were reacting similarly in spite of the rhetoric throughout America.

Government Orders Alone Didn’t Close the Economy. They Probably Can’t Reopen It.

This article shows that the lowest paid workers in the USA actually benefit until July 31st while the country is in lockdown.

It pays to stay unemployed. That might be a good thing

 

[phillionaire]

No, my friend. The majority of those protesting are the ones who are not able to afford rent, put food on the table, or provide for their families. Those of us fortunate enough to still be working or to work from home (myself luckily) should be more open minded. A lot of people who still have jobs would feel differently if they were unable to provide for themselves or their families because their states want to stayed locked down until a vaccine comes along, all for a virus that effects mostly the elderly. We can still PROTECT the elderly and vulnerable while slowly getting people back to work. It's not a one variable issue.

I can say with pretty near certainty that the GI Joe's protesting in Michigan with their multiple thousand dollar AR-15s and other rifles are not working class and are most likely either part of the petite bourgeoisie or, more likely, are paid by nefarious forces

 

[JimHurley]

They might be unlikely to die from it but they may still give it to countless people who are far more likely to die from it. Their cavalier attitude toward other people is irresponsible. People with health issues can't stay home forever either. They need to provide for their families too. Sadly we can't count on some of these people to do their part to keep others safe. Also, just because you don't die doesn't mean you are forever aok. There have been several reports of people potentially having lasting effects or lung damage in some people. So little is known about this virus in the long term because it is novel.

Yup, you make a lot of good points. That is why I favor continued self-isolation for the vulnerable. As I said in my last post, I'm extremely unlikely to die from it being in my 20s but the fact that I live with my grandparents who are approaching 80 keeps me responsible. The thing is cases will likely never hit zero, the vaccine may not be effective, and there will never be enough testing available to test everyone regularly. I think people need to consider those facts when planning a course of action.

 

[UCTitleTown]

Let's not underestimate the toll that home schooling is having on the mental health of kids. Long-term isolation can have very detrimental effects. My kid is climbing the walls and desperate to go back to school. Established students being isolated and not socializing in a classroom environment for 6 months is going to have some real long-term negative impact. I see a lot of prescriptions being written in the future.

 

[ctchamps]

EXACTLY....but it's not me that's moving the goalpost. It's you. Seems like the new goal is zero covid before reopen. That's not realistic unless you want a total shutdown for another year.

The goal was to flatten the curve...and it has been flattened. NYC sent the hospital ship away and the Javits center hospital is closing because it's not needed. Didn't NYC ship out ventilators because they weren't needed? Aren't we now sending ventilators to other countries because we don't need them?

My nephew is an oncologist in NJ and he had to help out in the hospital for a few weeks...when they were 95% Covid cases. He's now back to his regular practice because there are more NON-Covid patients in the hospital than covid, and they have excess ICU capacity.

Let's be clear. I'm advocating adequate testing and contact tracing so that the economy can open up properly. Do that and you can avoid additional spikes with attendant fears in the population and economic collapse. The goal was to flatten the curve and not allow it to spike again. Do you honestly believe we've achieved that goal?

 

[superjohn]

Again dying is only a part of the issue. A significant number of people under 55 and older than 35 were hospitalized and required intensive care.

So we just don't debate between economics and medical I'm going to throw in some information that doesn't alter the economic and medical predicament we currently are under but I haven't noticed mentioned elsewhere.

Medical:

Remdesivir is just the start for medical treatment of the virus. EIDD 2801 is another nucleoside analog that is showing potential and can be made in a pill form allowing for a much less expensive and quicker roll out for treatment. I expect over the next six months to a year an announcement that a medical treatment to alleviate the disease to be forthcoming. And a vaccination probably won't be far behind.

Promising Treatment

There are several anti inflammatory studies being done to inhibit or decrease the severe cascading response to the infection.

Economic:

For all the debate in this forum, the reporting in the news or the statements made by politicians the most salient point is how will Americans react to day to day situations. This article shows that people were reacting similarly in spite of the rhetoric throughout America.

Government Orders Alone Didn’t Close the Economy. They Probably Can’t Reopen It.

This article shows that the lowest paid workers in the USA actually benefit until July 31st while the country is in lockdown.

It pays to stay unemployed. That might be a good thing

It's not the economics and the medical. The economics is the medical. Saw a study a week ot so ago that 70,000 cancer diagnoses in the US will be missed because of the lockdown, people won't be treated for heart problems like they should. These numbers will only go up with neverneding lockdowns in places like Chicago and LA...

Suicides are up, domestic violence up, physical and sexual abuse of kids up, alcohol and drug abuse up. Kids will be paying the biggest price and the ramifications will be longterm. It's quite a burden to put on the future of the country and the group that accounts for a miniscule amount of Covid deaths.

 

[JimHurley]

Again dying is only a part of the issue. A significant number of people under 55 and older than 35 were hospitalized and required intensive care.

So we just don't debate between economics and medical I'm going to throw in some information that doesn't alter the economic and medical predicament we currently are under but I haven't noticed mentioned elsewhere.

Medical:

Remdesivir is just the start for medical treatment of the virus. EIDD 2801 is another nucleoside analog that is showing potential and can be made in a pill form allowing for a much less expensive and quicker roll out for treatment. I expect over the next six months to a year an announcement that a medical treatment to alleviate the disease to be forthcoming. And a vaccination probably won't be far behind.

Promising Treatment

There are several anti inflammatory studies being done to inhibit or decrease the severe cascading response to the infection.

Economic:

For all the debate in this forum, the reporting in the news or the statements made by politicians the most salient point is how will Americans react to day to day situations. This article shows that people were reacting similarly in spite of the rhetoric throughout America.

Government Orders Alone Didn’t Close the Economy. They Probably Can’t Reopen It.

This article shows that the lowest paid workers in the USA actually benefit until July 31st while the country is in lockdown.

It pays to stay unemployed. That might be a good thing

Thanks for this info. There is a "significant" number of people over 55 and under 35 requiring intensive care, but the number per 100,000 residents is very low. I'd say there's a significant number of coronavirus cases in this country, but when you look at it with perspective, only about 0.4% of the total US population has tested positive. It's significant, but it's certainly not high when looking at it from that angle.

 

[JimHurley]

Let's not underestimate the toll that home schooling is having on the mental health of kids. Long-term isolation can have very detrimental effects. My kid is climbing the walls and desperate to go back to school. Established students being isolated and not socializing in a classroom environment for 6 months is going to have some real long-term negative impact. I see a lot of prescriptions being written in the future.

This is also scary. Especially for those not as fortunate to have a computer and/or internet access. Less privileged kids are essentially missing a vital period in their education.

 

[ctchamps]

Yup, you make a lot of good points. That is why I favor continued self-isolation for the vulnerable. As I said in my last post, I'm extremely unlikely to die from it being in my 20s but the fact that I live with my grandparents who are approaching 80 keeps me responsible. The thing is cases will likely never hit zero, the vaccine may not be effective, and there will never be enough testing available to test everyone regularly. I think people need to consider those facts when planning a course of action.

I know it's China and I'm skeptical about what they put out almost as much as the what I hear from dot, dot dot. Whuhon Province just had eleven new cases. China is in the process of testing all eleven million of it's residents. When do you think we'll be able to come close to that type of testing. Of course they have their citizens identified and can follow pretty much every one of them. I would never advocate that for this country. The salient point is they have the testing capacity. We suck to say the least.

 

[navery12]

You're right but the reality is that the vast majority are not at risk of sickness/death. Those who are should not have to choose, correct. The virus has between a 0.4-0.9% death rate, with the average age of death being higher than the average life expectancy. That population should be protected at all costs. But for those under 50, the virus has a less than 0.1% death rate. And that is what is frustrating people. The fact that a virus effecting mainly the elderly, who are already prone to illness, is shutting down the country. Now for me, my grandparents live with me so I am not going anywhere other than the grocery store. I know my actions could take their lives, and I'm taking as much caution as possible to avoid that. But not everyone is in my position...

But right now we don't know what the long term effects are and that's what scares me. I'm 26 so I'm not at risk of dying in 3 weeks if I get it. But what I don't know is what's going to happen 5-10 years from now if I get it and there's long term damage

It's easy to say that only the high risk people stay home and we open back up, and that's what's going to happen. I'm just not certain the short term risk population is the same as the long term.

And to be clear, I'm not saying shut down the world until we get a vaccine but having some (not all) schooling online or a year of no sports isn't crazy to me